Tue Feb 21 10:38am EST
As college football entered the new millennium, the Big 12 began to gain a reputation as a prolific offensive conference. This perception proved to be true throughout the 2011 season as the conference had six of the top 15 offenses in the nation, while no other conference had more than two. The Big 12 also had more offenses ranked in the top 15 than all five of the other BCS conferences combined.
Let's take a look at the type of talent these Big 12 offensive juggernauts are bringing onto campus and how it translates to the gaudy statistics filling box scores across the conference.
Offenses in the Big 12 do not necessarily require elite talent to become unstoppable scoring machines. Teams like Baylor and Oklahoma State has recruiting rankings on offense were middle of the pack and they still managed to torture defenses in the Big 12 and Pac 12 this season.
The majority of spread based systems run in the Big 12 are designed to do more with less. This is unlike the SEC, which boasted six of the top ten offensive recruiting classes over the past four years, yet the league's offenses seem to be based around their field goal kickers.
Boom roasted (kind of).
From five-star kings to two-star bodies, some truly spectacular talent is mined from the fertile Big 12 recruiting soils that make these offenses run on all cylinders. Most of them begin and end with their signal callers.
If you follow college football, then you know the key to any capable functioning offense is the quarterback. If coaches insert any type of skillful player around an accurate signal caller most of the time things will run like clockwork.
For a school that primarily recruited two star quarterbacks from 2002-07, Baylor sure hit a homerun with their first four-star prospect.
Robert Griffin is the prime example of why the quarterback position is so important in the Big 12. The Heisman Trophy winner and future top five draft pick did not have the cream of the crop to work with at the skill positions (as you will see below). Regardless, Baylor was able to put together one the best offenses in the country and their best season in school history because they had a quarterback who could run a system that made the less talented more effective.
Oklahoma State did the same thing with an obscure transfer in Brandon Weeden. Given Weeden's Heisman-esque play this season, it would be a safe assumption for a casual fan to look at Oklahoma State's recruiting ranking and assume he was highly coveted.
That's not the case. Weeden came to campus as a transfer in 2007, which means Oklahoma State will have a good chance of replacing with a guy from the 22nd overall quarterback class and not lose a beat.
Texas, of course, is the prime example of how an ineffective quarterback can virtually ruin an offense. The Longhorns have the eighth overall ranking in quarterback acquisitions, but have been unable to translate said talent to the playing field for the past two years.
Five star prospect Garrett Gilbert struggled throughout the 2010 season trying to replace Colt McCoy and was later benched early in the 2011 season; the second-ranked quarterback in the 2009 recruiting class (behind Matt Barkley) transferred eventually transferred to SMU.
Connor Wood, a four-star prospect and third-ranked quarterback in the 2010 class, also decided to transfer prior to the beginning of the 2011 season, which left Texas with only two inexperienced three star recruits to pick up the pieces. I'm unsure of what's going on down at the capital, but it's very hard to miss on four different prospects of that caliber -- especially when you're Texas.
Unlike the Longhorns, the transfer of two Texas Tech quarterbacks won't leave the Red Raiders high and dry.
Tech is in a great spot with Seth Doege, who played his way into the upper tier of conference quarterbacks in 2011 and projects to remain there in 2012. Michael Brewer, a 2011 commit and three star prospect, is already drawing rave reviews from coaches and enters 2012 entrenched as the backup and quarterback of the future.
The transfers leave Tech a little thin for the moment at the quarterback position, but not without talent. They'll need to stockpile some recruits behind Clayton Nicholas in the 2013 class.
Similar to the NFL, running backs in college football can come a dime a dozen and from unexpected places.
As a two star running back out of high school, Baylor's Terrance Ganaway was hardly a blip on the recruiting radar. Still, he ended his senior season as the leading rusher in the Big 12, seventh overall nationally, and with an outside chance of being drafted in 2012.
Producing better numbers than the conference powerhouses filled with four and five star recruits is impressive. However, beating out those same four and five star prospects for playing time as a walk-on who couldn't get playing time at a NAIA program is nothing short of miraculous.
Walk-on Dominique Whaley emerged as the Oklahoma's lead running back before succumbing to a season-ending ankle injury. Despite missing the final six games, Whaley still finished as the Sooners leading rusher on the season after beating out highly rated recruits such as Jonathon Miller (four star), Brennan Clay (four star), Roy Finch (four star), and Brandon Williams (five star).
The underdogs were not the story for all the Big 12 programs. Some sought after recruits looked every bit as advertised.
Malcolm Brown (five star) of Texas was tearing it up as a true freshman despite battling an injury throughout the second half of the season. In College Station, Cyrus Gray (four star) and Christine Michael (five star) combined for nearly 2,000 yards rushing -- the best of any RB duo in the conference. Not far behind them were the a couple of four-star Oklahoma State running backs, Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith, who combined for just over 1,800 yards rushing and 33 touchdowns.
Tech was also finding massive success with a four star prospect of their own -- Eric Stephens -- until the injury bug bit and kept on biting. When DeAndre Washington went down with a season ending injury in Columbia, the Red Raiders loaded running back position suddenly became a little hairy.
With guys like Harrison Jeffers (four star) unable to recover from an eventual career ending injury, Ronnie Daniels (three star) suspended, and Delans Griffin (four star) unable to qualify, the recruiting classes for Tech were now providing very little at the position.
True freshman Kenny Williams (four star) and fifth-year senior Aaron Crawford (three star) did a commendable job picking up the pieces. Tech finished last in the Big 12 in rushing, but without most of the recruits in the 32nd rated running back class, it's not a total shock.
The way Baylor's receivers torched defenses all season long, it's hard not be shocked at how lowly regarded their overall talent was coming out of high school.
The Bears -- equipped with two and three star receivers -- had the third most passing yards in the nation in 2011 and were able to do so with 159 less pass attempts than the fourth ranked Sooners (or 27% less). On top of that, the spread offense was able to produce 3 of the 6 top wide receivers in the Big 12 - including leading receiver Kendall Wright.
Wright -- a three-star recruit -- has probably played his way into the first round of the NFL draft after leading Baylor in receiving yards all four years on campus. His counterparts, Terrance Williams and Tevin Reese, were both two-star players who have immeasurably out-played their Rivals.com recruiting grades. After continuously burning Big 12 defensive backs in 2011, these two players proved to be great examples of spread offenses getting more out of less.
Another great example would be the second overall passing offense in the nation: Oklahoma State. Like Baylor, the Pokes have been able to get it done without four star recruits and have turned a three-star prospect -- Justin Blackmon -- into a first-round lock in the NFL draft.
Some three star guys may have stolen the show in 2011, but Oklahoma's Ryan Broyles may have had something to say about that had he not been injured. Despite missing the last four games of the season, the former four-star recruit still managed to finish the season as the Sooner's leading receiver. The scariest thing about the Sooners' sixth overall wide receiver haul is Ryan Broyles did not factor into it. He was recruited as a defensive back in 2007. Unfortunately for Big 12 opponents, this just demonstrates how loaded the Sooners are at the position.
Eric Ward is the lone four star commit to make any significant impact on the field for the Red Raiders in 2011. Marcus Kennard, Jace Amaro, and Derek Edwards -- all from the 2011 recruiting class -- have yet to make notable contributions for Texas Tech.
Instead, Neal Brown was able to utilize some not so highly sought after transfers in Darrin Moore and Alex Torres for a reliable consistency in the passing game.
With the infusion of two more four-star prospects from the 2012 class and only three seniors graduating in 2011, the Red Raider's two-deep should be able to provide explosiveness in the passing game, something they lacked in 2011.
They say there is strength in numbers and if there was one thing Mike Sherman did right as the Aggies head coach it was recruit offensive lineman to College Station. From 2008-11 the Aggies recruited 20 offensive lineman, including six four-stars.
In 2011, Texas A&M had the 23rd-ranked rushing attack and, more impressively, only allowed nine total sacks the whole season (third lowest in the nation). Four of the five starters on the offensive line were four-star prospects, with three of them coming from the 2010 recruiting class that had four linemen with four-star grades.
Highly rated recruits are not the only guys who can succeed on the offensive line. Over the past four years, only seven of the 45 linemen who received Big 12 first or second team accolades were four-star recruits or better out of high school. Over the past four years only six of the linemen taken in the NFL draft have been four-star recruits or better, which includes only one of the five selected in the first round from the Big 12.
LaAdrian Waddle earned a post-season award for Tech by taking home All-Big 12 second team honors in 2011. Waddle, Deveric Gallington and Terry McDaniel, all former three-star prospects, started all 12 games for Texas Tech at various positions on the offensive line. Lonnie Edwards, a former four-star prospect, was the other Tech lineman to start all 12 games for the Red Raiders.
Neither of the two four-star prospects recruited from 2008-11 have been able to capture any serious playing time for Tech thus far. Kyle Clark only appeared in two games in 2011 (his redshirt sophomore season) and Tony Morales took a medical redshirt his first year on campus in 2011.
Texas Tech's offense line had a positive season in 2011 by only allowing 19 total sacks (43rd overall) and ranking 27th in the nation in tackles allowed for a loss.
Wed Feb 08 04:26pm EST
An attractive night sky is usually complimented by an enormous collection of stars. The same can be said for college football recruiting classes.
The recruiting scoreboard has become wildly popular for college football fans everywhere as media coverage now makes it easier for people to follow their favorite school's recruiting endeavors. Highly rated recruiting classes are celebrated by the thought that winning is now seemingly imminent.
And just like the stars in the sky, some recruits will shine while others burn out. A three star recruit can become the Heisman trophy winner, while a five star prospect struggles to get playing time. While these cases are rare and recruiting analyst hit more than they miss, few guarantees can be made for any player.
It shouldn't be understated that acquiring top rated prospects on a consistent basis will generally allow a program to have steady success. During any given season, a team's core can consist of players ranging from fifth year seniors to JUCO transfers to highly touted incoming freshman. There isn't a set formula to figure out which players will be the most effective contributors on the football field.
In Big 12 country, Texas and Oklahoma tend to get their pick of the best recruits, a trend that continued with the 2012 recruiting classes. In fact, since Rivals began tracking and ranking recruiting classes in 2002, Texas and Oklahoma have ranked been the top two teams every season.
Over those 11 years, the two schools have combined for nine Big 12 championships which included seven in a row from 2004-10 and ten straight years of winning the South division -- a pretty good showing of dominance.
However, the 2011 season was one filled with unexpected results as Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Baylor finished top three in the conference. It was the first time since 1997 that neither Texas nor Oklahoma would finish top three in the conference.
Since this type of season was such a rarity in the Big 12, it made me wonder what type of talent these other schools had been acquiring over the past four years and if they were catching up to the likes of Texas and Oklahoma, resulting in a spike in the rankings.
Below is a chart that uses the "points" category on Rivals.com to quantify the quality of recruits each schools is getting. Rivals will assign certain point totals to the best player at each position, which descends as you go down the list of player rankings. Basically, the better the player, the higher the point total and vice versa.
This study looked at the recruiting classes for each Big 12 school over the past four years (2008-11) and tallied up the total of points they received for top quality recruits.
"Total" is the overall amount of points awarded for recruits by Rivals and "Overall" is where the school ranks nationally out of 120 FBS teams.
The perceived talent gap between Texas, Oklahoma, and the rest of the Big 12 the last four years has been huge. While Oklahoma had a bit of a down year, Texas is the one between the two that massively underachieved in 2011.
Texas put up monster recruiting numbers from 2008-11 ranking fourth overall nationally behind Alabama, USC, and Florida. Yet in 2011, the Longhorns were still unable to fully bounce back from their 2010 enigma of a season; UT posted a 4-5 record in conference play, despite having an extreme talent advantage on paper over their conference foes.
Excluding the Sooners, Texas has recruited more four and five star prospects (63) than Oklahoma State, Missouri, Baylor, and Kansas State combined (46) -- the teams that handed the Longhorns four of their five losses this past season.
Regardless of a combined 13-12 record over the past two seasons, the Longhorn finished 2012 with the No. 2 recruiting class and only two less four and five star recruits than the rest of the 2011 version of the Big 12 combined (excluding Oklahoma). The rich get richer.
Speaking of the rich, how about Oklahoma State finally giving billionaire donor T. Boone Pickens some return on his investment? Pickens has pumped over $165 million into Oklahoma State's football program for improvements to facilities and the stadium.
Because the Cowboys won their first Big 12 title and had a sniff at playing for the national championship last season, it would be fair to assume the brand new facilities had the top rated recruits flocking to Stillwater similar to other national powerhouses.
That hasn't exactly been the case.
From 2008-11, the Pokes ranked fifth in the Big 12 and 31st nationally in recruiting and have greatly overachieved compared to their recruiting rankings.
Maybe one day Oklahoma State will recruit to the level of Texas and Oklahoma as desired by Pickens. For now, I think it's safe to say Mike Gundy has arrived as one of the nation's elite coaches rather than just some dude who's 40-years-old.
The list of coaches who have overachieved with lesser resources in the Big 12 does not stop with Gundy.
Art Briles and Bill Snyder both had their programs finish in the AP top 15 last season, which is extraordinary for two schools that ranked 49th and 56th nationally in recruiting the past four years. Baylor and Kansas State's combined fifteen four star recruits over the span of four years is the same amount that Texas had in its 2011 class alone (not to mention the Longhorns had a five star on top of that).
The amusing thing about these two coaches and their ten win seasons is that they both did it in completely opposite ways. Briles with high school recruits handpicked to succeed in his wide open passing system. Snyder with a heavy emphasis on transfer students to play in a possession control, protect the ball, run heavy offense.
It will be interesting to see if these two teams can build on their success going into the 2012 season. After all, one is replacing a Heisman trophy winning quarterback and the other will be hoping they can keep their He-Man quarterback in one piece throughout the entire season.
Despite the fourth-best batch of recruits in the Big 12 -- 28th nationally -- the Red Raiders are coming off the programs worst season in nearly 20 years. The insanely large amount of injuries on both sides of the ball surely contributed to the lack of results as did the program's extreme staff turnover on defense over the last three years.
Regardless of the reasons, Tech's 2-7 record in conference play has to be considered a major underachievement in relation to the talent (on paper) of the recruits brought into Lubbock. The Red Raiders will never be a recruiting behemoth like their rivals down in Austin, but they still managed to bring in as many four star recruits over the past four years (19) as Baylor, Kansas State and Iowa State combined - three teams they lost to in 2011 at home or on a neutral site.
Fri Nov 25 08:48pm EST
Fri Nov 25 08:47pm EST
Sat Nov 19 02:13pm EST
1. Seth Doege has been elite on the road
First year starter, Seth Doege, has been through some vast highs and lows through his first ten games and if there was ever a perfect time for the leader of the disoriented Red Raiders to hit the road, this weekend's trip to Columbia would be it. Doege's record setting performances and weekly national awards are validation that he has the skills and the moxie to be one of the nation's best quarterbacks on any given Saturday. However, for various unknown reasons he has been unable to display the spectacular performances he is capable of inside Jones AT&T stadium in Lubbock. It could be pure coincidence, a mental block, or that he just can't stand the sight of tortillas flying through the air -who knows. The statistical fact of the matter is that in Tech's road games, Doege has been exceptional for the Red Raiders. Take a look at his Home/Away splits:
Doege Home/Away Splits
Away: 72.1% Completions, 397 YPG, 8.1 YPA, 14-1 TD/INT, 162.3 QB Rating
Home: 64.4% Completions, 290 YPG, 6.3 YPA, 10-6 TD/INT, 125.1 QB Rating
Seth's numbers and performance on the road put him in elite company with Heisman candidates such as Brandon Weeden, Landry Jones, Robert Griffin lll, Andrew Luck, Kellen Moore, and Case Keenum. This could be a great opportunity for Doege and the offense to bounce back after last week's game against Oklahoma State where it became the first time since 2006 Texas Tech's offense failed to score a touchdown.
Another positive indicator that the Tech offense may have a chance to rejuvenate their success from early in the season is that Mizzou's the results have been less than stellar when facing 5 of the top 11 passers in YPG. The Tigers are 1-4 in those matchups and the opposing quarterbacks have averaged 69.2% Completions, 369 YPG, 8.8 YPA, 15-4 TD/INT, and a 164.7 QB Rating. Tech has similar capabilities to those offenses, which could result in similar success.
Contradictory to the famous Mac Davis song "Texas in my rearview mirror" (check it out on iTunes), leaving Lubbock in the rearview mirror may be the best thing for Seth Doege.
2. James Franklin 16.2 Rush Att/GM - 4th Overall among QB's
James Franklin's wheels have been utilized often by Gary Pinkel in what is normally a more pass heavy offense. At times, his mobility has been a much needed weapon to help Missouri's offense sustain drives and lessen pressure as he continues to improve as a passer. Having to worry about the possibility of Franklin picking up important chunks of yardage can really keep defenses back on their heels. Tech's defense has struggled this season against quarterbacks with the ability to run when needed. Here are the results:
Nevada- Cody Farjado............10 Att, 139 YDs, 2 TD
Texas A&M- Ryan Tannehill.... 9 Att, 55 YDs, 2 TD
Kansas State- Collin Klein.......23 Att, 110 YDs, 3 TD
Iowa State- Jared Barnett......19 Att, 92 YDs, 1 TD
Preventing Franklin from hurting them in the running game is going to be a huge factor in whether or not the Tech defense can get off the field and keep points off the board. The Missouri quarterback is averaging almost 64 YPG on his 16.4 attempts and has 11 rushing touchdowns on the season. All 11 of those touchdowns have come in the Red Zone, nine of them within 5 YDs, and two of them from 8 and 20 YDs out. The closer an offense gets to the goal line, the more congested the field becomes in the passing game. Assuming Missouri is able to drive the ball into the Red Zone, Tech's defense is going to need to make a conscious effort to contain Franklin and force him to pass the ball. If they can do this, then they will put themselves in far better position to win against the Tigers.
3. Avoid the 21 point margin
In last three games, Tech has been outscored by 21+ points in four of the six 1st half quarters played, resulting in them having to battle back from large deficits the rest of the game. It's been the little things that seem to stall offensive drives for Tech or give points away in an instant to their opponent. Tech has a long way to go in developing the youth on this team and battling through one injury after another has not helped this defense find any consistency. However, a lot of the Red Raiders wounds have been self-inflicted, so it's important for every player to perform thoughtfully and help prevent the seemingly daunting task of climbing out of another huge hole. The mental aspect of inexperienced players can sometimes be fragile and normal mistakes young players tend to make can get compounded in a hurry.
Fortunately for Tech, Missouri has an offense that is nowhere near as explosive as Oklahoma State's. Excluding their game against a FCS team, the Tigers have not outscored their opponents by 21+ points in any quarter this season and in only two quarters have they scored more than 14 points total. There is no doubt that this is a very obscure statistic to drawn on, but avoiding these quarters has kept the Red Raiders competitive in all their games prior to Iowa State.
Tech was able to punch Oklahoma in the mouth first with a long pass play to Alex Torres and then build the lead even further after a couple of Oklahoma mishaps in the 2nd quarter. You could see the confidence snow balling for the Tech players and they held on to it all the way until they shocked the nation. This was a Tech team who was missing some key players on defense going up against one of the best offenses in the nation on the road. This was a Tech performance that drew national praise and constant mispronouncing of his last name for Seth Doege.
Then, after a week of celebration that probably resulted in a lack of focus, Iowa State came in and went Buster Douglas on Tech, and the Red Raiders haven't recovered since. If this team gets focused and avoids the mistakes that have been putting them in these huge holes the past three weekends, then you should see a much more competitive Red Raider football team in Columbia.
Sat Nov 19 01:40am EST
In The Trenches: The starting lineup on the defensive line for Missouri will likely be 6-foot-4, 255-pound senior Jacquies Smith at defensive end, 6-foot-5, 295-pound senior Terrell Resonno at defensive tackle, 6-foot-5, 305-pound senior Dominique Hamilton at nose guard, and 6-foot-4, 265-pound junior Brad Madison at the other defensive end spot. Hamilton leads the defensive line in stats with 50 tackles, five and a half tackles for a loss, three sacks, a pass break up, and a forced fumble. Smith has 28 tackles, seven and a half tackles for a loss, four and a half sacks, three pass break ups, and three forced fumbles, Madison has 21 tackles, seven and a half tackles for a loss, three and a half sacks, one forced fumble, and an interception, and Resonno has 17 tackles, two and a half tackles for a loss, and two sacks. Back up defensive end Sheldon Richardson (6-foot-4, 305-pounds) has also had a fairly productive year with 31 tackles, six and a half tackles for a loss, a sack, and a pass break up.
The Back Of The Box: The linebacker group that will take the field for the Tigers on Saturday will consist of 6-foot-2, 230-pound junior Zaviar Gooden will hold down weak side linebacker, 6-foot-3, 230-pound sophomore Andrew Wilson gets the nod at middle linebacker, and 6-foot-3, 230-pound senior Luke Lambert and strong side linebacker. Wilson leads the team in tackles with 84 tackles and seven tackles for a loss. Gooden has 58 tackles, four and half tackles for a loss, one sack, and two pass break ups, and Lambert has 56 tackles, eight tackles for a loss, and two pass break ups. All three linebackers rank in the top five statistically for the Tigers. No other linebackers have any significant stat lines.
In The Secondary: The two starting corners for Mizzou will likely be 6-foot-1, 195-pound junior Kip Edwards and 5-foot-10, 185-pound sophomore E.J. Gaines. Edwards is currently listed as questionable for the game and would likely be replaced by 5-foot-11, 185-pound senior Trey Hobson if he can't go. Edwards has 41 tackles, one pass break up, two forced fumbles, and an interception, Gaines has 64 tackles, two and a half tackles for a loss, 14 pass break ups, one forced fumble, and three interceptions, and Hobson has nineteen tackles, two tackles for a loss, and two pass break ups. The two centerfielders for the Tigers will be 6-foot, 205-pound junior Kenronte Walker at free safety and 5-foot-10, 200-pound senior Kenji Jackson at strong safety. Jackson has 53 tackles, four tackles for a loss, three pass break ups, and two interceptions, and Walker has 26 tackles.
Missouri allows 258 passing yards per game and 142.4 rushing yards per game. Team's have been locking down the Red Raider's passing game the last few weeks, so it looks like the Tech could try and open things up by establishing the running game, which they likely can do with patience against the Tigers. Doege and Co. need to find a way to regain their swagger and get the offense into a fast paced groove like they did early on in the season, and the running game looks like the best way to try and start that on Saturday.
Sat Nov 19 01:39am EST
Field General: Leading the Tigers out on the field this weekend will be sophomore James Franklin (6-foot-2, 225-pounds). Franklin has been somewhat inconsistent in the passing game with a 63.1 completion percentage, 238.1 passing yards per game, 16 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He's also been a rushing threat in the zone read and scrambling game, averaging 63.2 rushing yards per game and finding the end zone on the ground 11 times.
As I said before, Franklin's been hot-cold in the passing game. He had his best game against Baylor with 325 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 71.7 completion percentage. His worst game, however is a different story. Against Oklahoma State, he had 184 passing yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and a passing completion percentage of 51.9. He also had a bad day throwing the ball against OU, completing only 48.5 percent of his passes. On situations of 3rd down and four to six yards, a down where he's thrown the ball 21 times, Franklin is only completing 33 percent of his passes. His overall third down completion percentage is only 53.8
Put all that together, and you should see that if you can force Mizzou into third down, especially third and long, passing situations, you put yourself in a good position to stop the Tigers offense.
Toting The Rock: Mizzou is running into Texas Tech minus the best player on their offense: running back Henry Josey. Josey tore his knee to shreds against Texas last week, and the feature back will miss the rest of the season and possibly 2012. That's a heartbreaker for the Tigers, as Josey was a top ten rusher in the nation this year with 1168 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. With Josey out, junior Kendial Lawrence (5-foot-9, 190-pounds) will slide into the starting role this weekend against Tech. Lawrence has 321 yards on 71 attempts, averaging 4.52 yards per carry with 3 touchdowns. Former starter and senior De'Vion Moore (5-foot-9, 295-pounds) will back up Lawrence. Moore hasn't been much of a factor this season, averaging only 2.6 yards per carry on 39 total rushing yards.
As with Kansas State and Collin Kein, quarterback James Franklin acts as the second running back in Missouri's offense off of zone read and option plays. The Tigers can come at you in multiple ways, and the Red Raider defense will have to put up one of their best efforts on the year to contain Franklin and the offense.
The Big Uglies: Starting at left tackle for the Tigers will be 6-foot-5, 295-pound sophomore Justin Britt. Mizzou is down two left tackles in Elvis Fisher and Anthony Gatti who are out for the season. The rest of the starting line will be 6-foot-2, 305-pound senior Jayson Palmgren at left guard, 6-foot-3, 295-pound junior Travis Ruth at center, 6-foot-4, 295-pound senior Austin Wuebbels at right guard, and 6-foot-7, 320-pound senior Dan Hoch at right tackle. Center Travis Ruth is questionable for the game as of Tuesday, so look for 6-foot-6, 290-pound freshman Mitch Morse to replace him if need be.
The Mizzou line has given up an acceptable 15 sacks so far, but the real eye-opener is that the big uglies have helped the Tigers plow their way to an outstanding 235.6 rushing yards per game. The loss of Henry Josey will definitely hurt the Missouri running game, but don't expect that rushing average to drop by a whole lot.
Catching The Ball: The Tigers starting receivers are 6-foot-1, 185-pound senior Jerrell Jackson at X, 6-foot, 195-pound junior T.J. Moe at H, and 6-foot-4, 330-pound senior Wes Kemp at Z. 2010 All-American and senior Michael Egnew (6-foot-6, 245-pounds) will start at tight end. Egnew's production is down somewhat this year, but the change in offensive styles attributes to a lot of that. Still, he's the second best statistical receiver on the team with 462 yards and two touchdowns through ten games this year. Moe is the leading receiver for the Tigers with 621 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 12.67 yards per catch. Of note, Jackson and Kemp's backups have out done the statistically this year, with 6-foot-5, 205-pound sophomore Marcus Lucas catching 18 balls for 293 yards and three touchdowns, and 6-foot-4, 185-pound sophomore L'Damian Washington catching 18 balls for 281 yards and three touchdowns.
Wed Nov 16 03:59pm EST
I was encouraged at the tailgate scene by several readers to open up a little this week. After the worst loss in school history, I probably owe you that.
OFFENSE
There are several different issues I've been keeping an eye on, but haven't mentioned them before largely due to the byes received for a successful performance in Norman. That buys a lot of street cred with me and also convinced me that Texas Tech is not lacking the talent to be consistent on this side of the ball. However, after averaging nine offensive points per game since then, it's time to start addressing some specifics.
If you've followed by material, you'll know I believe football games are won up front either by the offensive or defensive line. The Red Raiders' problems aren't completely on the team's coaches or the players, both shoulder some of that burden.
Let's start with the run game. While I always felt like Mike Leach should have called more runs, one thing I had a great appreciation for were the schematics of his run game itself. It may not have fit in the box of "power" run game, but it was well-designed, gave you an advantage by playing in a two-point stance and had a north-south nature. Lonnie Edwards certainly looked more powerful earholing a linebacker on a fold play than trying to chase one down from behind with a two-yard head start. The bigger picture was that, in design, it created a complementary effect for the passing game by giving you the ability to dictate defensive alignment. Defensive ends were discouraged from getting too far upfield in pass rush and linebackers were discouraged from dropping too quickly into zone coverage. Since defensive line and linebacker keys were largely indistinguishable between pass and run, everything worked in harmony. Even though you might only call run plays 25-35 percent of the time, there was another 25-35 percent of your offensive production that was mostly facilitated by the threat. A well-designed run game accounts for approximately 60 percent of the success for a spread offense. Or, much more in the case of teams like Oregon, Georgia Tech, Nevada and Missouri.
In Tech's current state, the run and pass game operate as unrelated, independent bodies of scheme. To put it in layman's terms, the Red Raiders have sacrificed 60 percent of our playbook before the opening kickoff. How do I know this? Because their scheme is based on gaining a numbers advantage in the box by the threat of the quarterback running. This doesn't scare teams to the effect of tackling Collin Klein or James Franklin 25 times a game at 225 pounds. The Red Raiders aren't going to run Seth Doege 25 times a game. I know it. Wally Burnham knew it. Manny Diaz knew it. Bill Young knew it. And, Dave Steckel and Phil Bennett know it. Tech actually got away with it for a while when Eric Stephens was available to bail the team out of some whiffed blocks, but the jig is up.
It doesn't help that the Red Raiders have a center with two blown knees trying to reach block a three-tech when a run is called. That's not giving your players much of a chance to be successful. Since Tech is using a quarterback with Graham Harell mobility in an offense designed for a Zebbie Lethridge athlete, teams don't respect the values of assignment football. Given that the defensive line and linebacker keys are so obvious on zone versus passing plays, teams are getting the jump on things at a higher percentage of snaps -- making the Red Raiders' run game consistently inconsistent. I know that because the three times they've pulled the ball against Oklahoma (twice) and Texas (once), and thrown it to Adam James over a linebacker, he's averaged 30 yards a reception.
Don't be surprised when Michael Brewer is shredding Tech's second-team in the spring with the same offense. No, I'm not calling for a quarterback change, but Brewer seems better suited to the offense that Tech is currently running. I get the part about wanting to develop your existing roster by teaching them future favored schemes. This is the exact same schematic flaw that caused the downfall of Greg Davis when he didn't have Vince Young or Colt McCoy to bail him out. The product on the field is a spread team with an east-west identity.
For several years, Tech has been one of the best teams in the country at executing hitch screens. They were the pioneers of the hitch screen and first to prove it more than a gimmick play with Wes Welker and Michael Crabtree. It was an option pitch for your best playmaker to avert a tackler and pick up an easy 12 yards. A big part of its success relied upon the blocking ferocity of guys like Carlos Francis, Mickey Peters, Danny Amendola and Ed Britton. I still think the more experienced players like Alex Torres, Eric Ward and Tramain Swindall are more than adequate. Which is why the chains read 2nd and 13 after every attempt that Jace Amaro and Bradley Marquez are sent out to block it. I understand that it's a chance for them to develop and get on the field, but it's costing the Red Raiders on the field. They execute with the effort of someone who has had the play explained to them, but not the significance of their duty on every rep to the big picture. This play is further compromised by the horizontal nature of the team's run game and how teams are defending it.
OFFENSIVE LINE
The equal odds of a defensive end being correct if he simply flies off the ball every snap in an effort to run around the tackles on a passing play or careen into a running back on a zone play to the other side are suggested in the body language of Tech's offensive linemen any time the team falls behind by 21 points. The hopelessness manifests itself with holding or hands to the face penalties on any promising drive where they are required to continually execute a high degree difficulty for their skillset. The issues are magnified on 2nd and 20 resulting in a guaranteed punt or turnover on downs.
Now, while I have sympathy for their frustrations and most of the success we have is due to their efforts in executing plays, it still doesn't excuse the apathy for which they seem to play in stretches. I don't see an internal pecking order of accountability that exists in all the successful offensive line units I've seen or played with. No one seems to care when they bust an assignment and, to me, that is the single most frustrating part of the team's slide. This is the most experienced unit on the field, a group that should be leading by example at this point. They still function at a higher rate of success than any unit on the team, but the intensity and pride seems to be missing.
DEFENSE
You're going to be shocked by this next statement, but the defense actually improved this week. I know, it sounds crazy. Besides a long Herschel Sims run late in the game and being burned by a draw play on 3rd and 20, the run defense yielded mostly nickel and dime stuff. Tommy Tuberville has been tinkering on this side of the ball and it was apparent in how much 3-4, or even 5-2, alignment that they used on running and short yardage downs. This was a glowingly successful arrangement for the Red Raiders that would have been even more productive against the three losses on their schedule to the only teams without a passing threat at quarterback. Bittersweet to a degree.
I wasn't expecting Tech's depleted secondary to match up well in space, but had they not given Oklahoma State 21 free points -- and the refs not calling some don't-screw-up-our-two-BCS-bids penalties early in the game -- this would have been a much more respectable performance.
Delvon Simmons had the best game of his young career. All the defensive linemen played better across the board and the Red Raiders' "big" front package resulted in at least one or two guys playing across the line of scrimmage on most snaps. It also resulted in linebackers staying clean and running free. I really hope to see more of this philosophy over the next two weeks.
Fri Nov 11 03:11pm EST
In The Trenches: The four starters on the defensive line for OSU this weekend will be 6-foot-3, 260-pound senior defensive end Richetti Jones, 6-foot-3, 284-pound sophomore defensive tackle Anthony Rogers, 6-foot-3, 285-pound junior defensive tackle Nigel Nicholas, and 6-foot-3, 265-pound senior Jamie Blatnick. Blatnick leads the line this year with 38 tackles, nine and a half tackles for a loss, seven sacks, five pass break ups, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, and an interception. Jones has 26 tackles, 3 and half tackles for a loss, two sacks, one pass break up, and an interception, Nicholas has 26 tackles, eight tackles for a loss, two sacks, and two pass break ups. Other than those three, the rest of the Cowboys defensive line stacks up fairly evenly across the statistical boards, mainly because they do a lot of subbing.
The Oklahoma State line has been a part of a defense that's giving up 196 rushing yards per game and 266 passing yards per game. Teams have been eating up yards against the OSU defense all year, but the unit has had two big factors going for it all year: sacks and turnovers. The Cowboys have 24 sacks, good enough to be in the top 20 in the nation as a unit, and are first in the country in turnover margin. The formula for success against Okie State is simple: Don't turn the ball over and get in a rhythm on offense. You want to be able to play a game of keep away with Weeden and the offense, but also want to capitalize on your drives and make sure you score touchdowns. If Tech can keep the turnovers down and score touchdowns, they will have a good chance of beating OSU.
The Back Of The Box: The three starters in the linebacker corp. will be 5-11, 220-pound sophomore strong side linebacker Shaun Lewis, 6-foot-3, 231-pound sophomore middle linebacker Caleb Lavey, and 6-foot-3, 225-pound junior weak side linebacker Alex Elkins. All three rank in the top five statistically for the Cowboys. Elkins has 54 tackles, 4 tackles for a loss, and one pass break up, Lavey has 54 tackles, two tackles for a loss, one sack, and one interception, and Lewis has 48 tackles, seven tackles for a loss, one and a half sacks, one fumble recovery, and one interception.
In The Secondary: The starting corners for OSU will be 5-8, 185-pound junior Broderick Brown and 6-foot, 205-pound sophomore Justin Gilbert, and in the middle of the field will be 6-foot-1, 198-pound senior strong safety Markelle Martin and 6-foot, 195-pound sophomore free safety Daytawion Lowe. Lowe has been all over the field for the Cowboys with 70 tackles, two tackles for a loss, two sacks, three pass break ups, three forced fumbles, and an interception. Martin has 50 tackles, three and a half tackles for a loss, eight pass break ups, and two forced fumbles. Gilbert has 39 tackles, one tackle for a loss, five pass break ups, and three interceptions. Gilbert has also been a force in the kickoff return game with two return touchdowns. Finally, Brown has 35 tackles, two tackles for a loss, nine pass break ups, one fumble return, and a four interceptions.
The OSU secondary has been greedy, vulturing ten interceptions so far. Seth Doege will need to be on point on Saturday and make sure not to help pad OSU's turnover stats.
Thu Nov 10 11:38am EST
Field General: Leading the Cowboys prolific offense into the Jones on Saturday will be senior Brandon Weeden (6-foot-4, 218-pounds). Weeden has thrown for 356.9 yards per game with a 72.1 completion percentage, 26 touchdowns, and nine intercepts. Weeden has been money for the majority of the year.
Out of Weeden's nine interceptions, he's thrown five on first down and three on third and six or longer. Strangely, he hasn't thrown a pick on second or fourth down this year. He's also thrown 11 touchdowns on second down, which is more than any other other down. Also of note, he's throwing for 8.2 yards per attempt. What you take away from these stats, I think, is that Weeden is most vulnerable when trying to make his medium to long range passes. Weeden doesn't have many weaknesses, but if Tech wants to try and get to him, they need to take away the underneath, short routes and get pressure on him early on in the game.
Toting The Rock: The top rusher and starter at running back for OSU is 6-foot-1, 191-pound sophomore Joseph Randle. Randle has rushed for 915 yards, 6.06 yards per carry, and 18 touchdowns. He's also had 27 receptions for 186 yards at 7.15 yards per reception and 2 touchdowns. 5-foot-10, 205-pound sophomore Jeremy Smith has been the back up so far, rushing for 502 yards, 7.49 yards per carry, and seven touchdowns.
Randle and Smith have been sneaky good for Oklahoma State so far, running for nearly 1500 yards together through nine games. The one-two punch combo has helped the offense become one of the most prolific units in the nation this year. If Texas Tech wants to slow down Weeden and the Cowboys offense, they'll likely have to limit the OSU running game.
The Big Uglies: The offensive line will assemble like this for Oklahoma State this weekend: 6-foot-4, 310-pound junior Michael Bowie at left tackle, 6-foot-4, 310-pound senior Nick Martinez will start at left guard, 6-foot-3, 292-pound senior Grant Carter will hold down the center spot, 6-foot-3, 310-pound junior Lane Taylor starts at right guard, and 6-foot-6, 322-pound senior Levy Adcock will start at right tackle.
The Cowboy offensive line has only given up 10 sacks through nine games and have helped the running back stable rush for 169.8 yards per game. This is one of the best offensive line units that Texas Tech has faced so far this year, and the Tech defensive line will have to play much better than they have the past two weeks to disrupt the well oiled Oklahoma State offense.
Catching The Ball: The OSU receiver corp. is of course led by All-American and Biletnikoff award winner Justin Blackmon (6-foot-1, 215-pounds). Blackmon has 1039 yards, 87 receptions, 12 touchdowns, and 115.4 yards per game so far. The other starting receivers are 5-foot-10, 178-pound junior Isaiah Anderson, 5-foot-11, 195-pound senior Josh Cooper, and 6-foot-1, 233-pound junior Tracy Moore. Moore has 492 yards on 35 catches with three touchdowns, Cooper has 420 yards on 41 receptions with two touchdowns, and Anderson has 172 yards on 15 receptions with three touchdowns. The best non starter for OSU has been sophomore Michael Harrison (6-foot-1, 211-pounds) with 229 yards on 18 receptions with three touchdowns. It's also of note that Hubert Anyiam, one of the most prolific receivers for the Cowboys this year, is likely out for the season after breaking a bone in his foot against Missouri.
The Oklahoma State receiver corp. has been very good this year, with Blackmon being the flag bearer and lightning rod of the group. You can approach Blackmon in two ways: let him do his thing and focus on shutting down everyone else, or make sure to shut him down and let the rest of the receiver corp. do their thing. Whatever approach Tech takes, it will be a tall task containing the OSU receivers.
Posted Feb 1 2012
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Posted Feb 1 2012
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