Oklahoma State Blog - College

  • Mon Dec 05 01:34pm EST

    Conflict of interest

    The last 16 or so hours have seen people across the country discussing the inherent issues facing the BCS and its selection process, and whether a LSU-Alabama rematch was justified. We'll jump into all of those issues here on the Cowboy Corral Blog, but not before what I view as the most disgusting aspect to the whole fiasco.

    That is the way ESPN unabashedly pushed for the title game that came to pass. It was in force for some time, but came to a crescendo on Saturday as conference championship games (as well as the de facto Big 12 Championship game in Stillwater). The "mothership" kicked off the Saturday campaign by bringing Alabama head coach on to its most-watched college football program, and allowed practically begged Nick Saban to stump for his team's inclusion in the mythical national championship game over the course of two hours of College Gameday.

    It continued in ESPN's parent company's broadcast of the ACCvChampionship Game. The worst example came after ABC's broadcast of Oklahoma State's 44-10 whipping of (then) No. 10 Oklahoma, when ESPN's SportsCenter and College Football Final kicked things over to the ACC announcing crew of Kirk Herbstreit and Brent Musburger. Rather than discuss the possibility that No. 3 OSU had done enough to warrant discussion of moving to No. 2, the duo launched immediately into selling the LSU-Alabama rematch.

    "In all likelihood, it is going come up LSU-Alabama, and Oklahoma State is going to be left out," Musburger declared as "Herbie" nodded along with a smug grin. "You know, I want to make a point about rematches.

    "Remember the Giants-Patriots a few years ago? That wasn't too bad a rematch in the Super Bowl. Huh?

    "How about Rocky Balboa and Apollo Creed? Rocky II?"

    Yes, Musburger actually pointed to an NFL game (which came about due to a playoff system) and a battle of two fictional boxers.

    Herbstreit? He agrees that Balboa-Creed was "great." He threw in the Michigan State-Wisconsin game he had just broadcast as another example of a good rematch.

    The real question is why ESPN cares so much about an all-SEC mythical national championship game.

    They'll be broadcasting that game, so there's a pretty major vested interest there. That being said, most analysts would say that LSU-OSU would likely have had better ratings than a do-over of the LSU-Alabama field goal fest on Nov. 5.

    So what else then?

    The Southeastern Conference has signed a 15-year deal with ESPN reportedly worth more than $2 billion to televise sporting events, including football and men's and women's basketball. - Associated Press, August 25, 2008

    Here's a little quote from SEC commissioner Mike Slive in that same AP report.

    "This agreement makes the SEC the most widely distributed conference in the country."

    ESPN has $2 billion reasons to desire to see the SEC as strong as possible. What better way than to help guarantee a national champion from the conference, than to use its vast reach to influence public opinion and voters ahead of the final polls?

  • Sun Dec 04 11:58am EST

    Long day ahead

    On the heels where just about everything that could have gone right for Oklahoma State's national championship hopes did go right, it makes for a long day for OSU supporters while waiting for polls and computer rankings to be released.

    As of 10:50 AM CST, only Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings have been updated. In it, OSU remains third. The Cowboys inexplicably gained only .63 points after soundly beating the No. 6 team in last week's standings.

    Among the human polls, the Associated Press Top 25 typically is released first, around noon. It is not part of the BCS formula, however. The USA Today Coaches Poll also is generally released around noon, while the Harris Interactive Poll has generally been made public by mid-afternoon.

    Cowboy fans - and the rest of the country - will find out the national championship pairing on the BCS selection show at 7:15 CST on ESPN. Public sentiment has seemed to trend toward favoring an OSU-LSU matchup, but many experts still project an Alabama-LSU rematch.

  • Here are a couple of interesting tables, courtesy "OSUDave" on the Corral message board. All data is taken from the BCS computer rankings.

  • Mon Nov 28 09:17pm EST

    The “Body of Work”

    In the discussion of possible BCS Championship contenders, the words "body of work" come up frequently. Since No. 3 Oklahoma State appears to be the only team with any shot at moving up into the top two, let's take a look at the body of work for both OSU and No. 2 Alabama. For the purposes of this discussion, we must assume an Oklahoma State win over Oklahoma on Saturday, as there is nothing to discuss if OSU loses. Lose to OU and the discussion turns to whether OSU can land an at-large BCS bid, or be relegated to a regular Big 12-tie bowl. If next Sunday morning comes and both schools are 11-1, who has the best body of work?

    Overall record/Conference record: Alabama 11-1 (7-1), Oklahoma State 11-1 (8-1)

    Opponent Win-Percentage (FBS-only): OSU .572, Bama .542

    Wins, top-to-bottom per Sagarin ELO Chess (BCS formula)1

    1. Kansas State 9-2 (5**) < Arkansas 10-2 (4)
    2. Oklahoma 9-3* (6*) > @ Penn State 9-3 (27)
    3. Baylor 8-3 (7**) > At Auburn 7-5 (18)
    4. At Texas 7-4 (13) > Mississippi State 6-6 (31)
    5. Missouri 7-5 (16) > At Florida 6-6 (36)
    6. At Texas A&M 6-6 (17) > Vanderbilt 6-6 (42)
    7. At Tulsa 8-4 (27) > Tennessee 5-7 (47)
    8. At Texas Tech 5-7 (29) > Georgia Southern (FCS) 9-2 (79)
    9. Kansas 2-10 (66) > Ole Miss 2-10 (102)
    10. Arizona 4-8 (70) > Kent State 5-7 (117)
    11. Louisiana 8-4 (78) > North Texas 4-7 (119)

    *As noted from the outset, assumes OSU win over OU, raising their L total and lowering Sagarin rating
    **Several Big 12 teams play each other this weekend; BU-Texas, Kansas State-Iowa State

    Loss "Quality": Bama 6-9 OT at home vs #1 (unanimous) LSU. OSU 31-37 2OT at Iowa State (22 Sagarin)

    Margin of Victory (all wins, including FCS): Bama 29.9, OSU 25.4

    Out-of-Conference schedule: Both teams played a well-regarded team on the road (Bama at Penn State, OSU at Tulsa). Both played one BCS conference opponent (PSU, Arizona). Oklahoma State did not play a FCS opponent, and had one fewer OOC opponent due to the Big 12's additional conference game in the round-robin format. Any Big 12 opponent is regarded higher than either Kent State or North Texas by the computer rankings.

    Road schedule/wins:
    OSU 6 games/5 wins (Tulsa, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Texas Tech)
    Bama 5 games/5 wins (Penn State, Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Auburn)

    Conference Strength: BCS computers spit out the Big 12 as the nation's toughest conference. An argument can certainly be made that the SEC is equal or nearly so. The catch? OSU played every Big 12 team. Alabama avoided playing the SEC East's top two teams (Georgia and South Carolina), though through no fault of their own (other than not making the SEC Championship game to face Georgia).

    So there is the "body of work" data, with as little commentary as possible. That leaves it to the reader to do the interpretation.

    1The Sagarin Rating was chosen due to the fact it rates all FBS & FCS teams, is readily available and has a long history, as well as being part of the BCS formula.

  • Mon Nov 28 12:50pm EST

    Groundswell building for OSU?

    When the BCS standings were released on Sunday night, the court of public opinion - at least the one ESPN forms - was that regardless of any results in conference championship games and season finales, the title game is set for a rematch of LSU and Alabama.

    Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy largely declined on Monday morning to politick for his No. 3 Cowboys to move into the championship game if they beat No. 10 Oklahoma on Saturday night. And that is ok, as Gundy's first priority is to win that game, and the Big 12 Championship that comes with it. None of the BCS talk matters a whit if Gundy's Pokes fail to get that done.

    Others - particularly in the media - don't have the constraint of preparing for a huge game, and there is a growing groundswell of support for the idea that an 11-1 Oklahoma State deserves a shot at the title over 11-1 Alabama, who will be idle this weekend during the SEC Championship game. Here's a sampling:

    Alabama blew it; Oklahoma State deserves a shot - Gil LeBreton, Ft. Worth Star-Telegram

    The Last BCS Curveball: Could Oklahoma State play for it all? - Pete Fiutak, College Football News

    Additionally, Mike Greenberg of ESPN Radio's "Mike and Mike" defended OSU's "bad loss" on this morning's show by pointing out an important fact that is largely overlooked - that the Cowboys woke up on Friday morning to learn that the OSU family had suffered yet another tragic plane crash involving athletics.

    The thought that LSU-Alabama is a so-called done deal certainly still prevails, but there may be a groundswell of support for the idea that a rematch is unnecessary. If that thought continues to gain ground, a Bedlam-winning Oklahoma State is the only team truly in the discussion.

  • Wed Nov 23 07:39pm EST

    Stanford ahead of OSU?

    Stanford head coach David Shaw had some strong words about Oklahoma State being ahead of his Cardinal squad in the BCS standings.

    "Oklahoma State is outstanding, a very good football team," Shaw said. "Once again, we lost to a team that was in the Top 10, they lost to a team that's not ranked. I don't get it. Not saying that where we should be opposed to where other people are, I'm just saying the explanations I get don't make any sense. Now, there is a lot of football to be played a lot of stuff that's going to shake itself out."

    Here's what you're missing, coach:

    First off, we'll stipulate that he is right: Stanford's one loss is a "better" loss than OSU's. Oregon is an outstanding football team. Iowa State is average. Maybe even above average, but not on plane with the Ducks.

    Shaw's flaw? OSU's schedule to get to 10-1 was much tougher overall than Stanford's. Eight of the Cowboys' opponents are currently above .500. Stanford has five such opponents. OSU has seen four teams that are at least 7-3 through week 12. Stanford? Two.

    Those same opponents are 66-52 overall (OSU) versus 55-67 (Stanford). Include Oklahoma and Notre Dame and it moves to 74-54 and 63-70 for the two teams.

    The Big 12 is a better football conference in 2011. The computers say so, and so does the so-called "eye test." Beyond playing in a tougher conference, OSU played a tougher non-con schedule. It wasn't a murder's row, but did include 8-3 Louisiana and 8-3 Tulsa...not to mention PAC-12 member Arizona, who isn't even the worst team in that conference.

    Shaw has a higher ranking in the human polls, but what put Stanford behind Oklahoma State in the BCS standings is OSU's strength in the computers...which factors strength of schedule.

    Props to Shaw for speaking out for his team in the court of public opinion. Don't agree with his message, but it's what a coach should do.

  • While Oklahoma State is idle this holiday weekend, plenty of other games are going on that could directly influence OSU's chance to move up in the BCS Standings. They're currently fourth, and could possibly move up a couple of spots without playing. Here is the OSU fan's viewer's guide for the weekend. The team OSU fans will want to pull for is bolded.

    No. 2 Alabama at Auburn (Saturday, 2:30 CST, CBS) — This is such a clear number one from the OSU perspective, no other game is really close. OSU fans need Auburn to do them a favor and hand 'Bama their second loss on the season, and eliminate them from the title game picture completely. Polls/Computer — equal impact.


    No. 3 Arkansas at No. 1 LSU (Fri, 1:30, CBS) — An Arkansas upset could be bad news for OSU, because it could very well mean the SEC continues to hold the top two spots (or three if Alabama wins) in the BCS standings. LSU isn't falling far no matter what, so a Tiger win clears out the spot right in front of OSU by knocking Arkansas out. Polls/Computer — equal impact.

    No. 5 Virginia Tech at Virginia (Sat, 2:30, ABC/ESPN2) — VaTech is ahead of OSU in both human polls. Simply put, the Hokies need to lose here, or in a rematch with Clemson in the ACC title game (Clemson won the regular-season matchup 23-3). Voters don't typically make big changes without a loss somewhere. Virginia has a lot to play for as well. Win and they're in the ACC championship game. Polls

    No. 22 Notre Dame at No. 6 Stanford (Sat, 7:00, ABC) — Most everything written at number three applies here. Stanford seems to have a fair bit of support sentiment in the media. They're not moving behind an idle OSU without a loss to the Irish. Polls


    No. 8 Houston at Tulsa (Fri, 11:00 AM, FSN) — Tulsa can do their in-state rivals two favors here. First, it ends any discussion of Houston as a NC game contender as the only other undefeated. That's probably not a strong sentiment, but will exist if LSU and Houston are the only undefeateds. More so if LSU happens to lose. Second, Tulsa is strong in computer rankings. Take the Sagarin Ratings, for example, which was one of two CPU rankings to not have OSU at No. 2. Tulsa is 26th and Houston 15h. A TU win would help OSU close the .87 gap they trail Alabama by in Sagarin's rating. OSU's 59-33 win over Tulsa is already viewed as a quality win by the computers, but a win over UH would help. It might thrust TU into the BCS top 25 in the polls, if voters respond. Computers


    SEC-ACC matchups (No. 13 Georgia at No. 22 Georgia Tech, No. 17 Clemson at No. 12 South Carolina, Florida State at Florida) — This one is all about taking down the SEC's strength in the computers and perception as a dominant league. If the ACC can win two of the three, it's a positive for OSU...perhaps more in the court of public opinion more than directly in the CPU's or polls.


    Texas Tech-No.18 Baylor in Dallas (Sat, 2:30, FSN) — A game where OSU has wins over both teams. This one is clear though — OSU folks should be pulling for Baylor, as the Bears are 18th in the BCS and 7th in Sagarin. One drawback, another win probably permanently secures Robert Griffin III's status ahead of Brandon Weeden in the Heisman race. Computers.


    Iowa State at No. 9 Oklahoma (Sat, 11 AM, FX) — A win-win for OSU fans, most likely. If OU wins, they're that much stronger in the polls and CPU's when Bedlam rolls around on Dec. 3. It goes without saying, by the way, that everything discussed here requires an OSU win in Bedlam. If ISU pulls off a second improbable upset in two weeks, OSU's loss looks much better. It would also guarantee OSU a BCS appearance as the Big 12 champion. K-State could tie for the title if they beat BU on Dec 3 and OSU loses, but the Cowboys hold the tie break. Polls/Computers equally


    No. 25 Texas at Texas A&M (Thur, 7:00, ESPN) — At number 25 in the BCS, OSU's win over Texas is a quality win. The difference here is OSU has played (and beaten) both teams. Texas is 17th in Sagarin's ratings. A&M is 12th. Hard to predict which win does more for OSU in the computers. Neither is ranked in the polls, but are receiving (few) votes.
    Missouri-Kansas in Kansas City (Sat, 2:30, FSN) — Mizzou is 16th in Sagarin's ratings. A win over KU is not going to give them a huge bump by itself, but with losses ahead of them, Mizzou could possibly jump into his top 10. Computers


    Louisiana-Lafayette at Arizona (Sat, 3:00) — Another matchup of OSU opponents. Neither is highly-regarded in the computers. Arizona is higher, so it probably helps a tiny bit if they win. Computers

  • Oklahoma State junior wide receiver Justin Blackmon was named as one of three finalists for the Biletnikoff Award, which is presented to the nation's most outstanding receiver.

    Blackmon won the Biletnikoff after an outstanding sophomore season in 2010. He is in position to pull off a rare feat in winning the award twice. Only former Texas Tech receiver Michael Crabtree has done that previously.

    The other two finalists are USC sophomore Robert Woods and Oklahoma senior Ryan Broyles. Blackmon has the best numbers of the group currently with 103 receptions for 1,241 yards and 15 touchdowns with one game left to play in the regular season.

    Woods also has one game remaining, and currently totals 99 catches for 1,179 yards and 13 scores. Broyles' season ended with a knee injury in Oklahoma's ninth game. His season totals are 83 catches for 1,157 and 10 touchdowns.

    For comparison, Blackmon and Woods' totals through nine games were: 87/1,045/12 and 90/1,121/11, respectively.

  • Sun Nov 20 01:06am EST

    Projecting OSU in the BCS

    Oklahoma State entered the weekend at No. 2 in the BCS standings, and kicked off a wacky BCS-busting weekend with a two-overtime loss at Iowa State. 24 hours ago, it appeared OSU's shot at the national championship game was left on the turf in Ames, Iowa. After a wild weekend in the BCS top 10, where does OSU wind up when the BCS standings are released on Sunday night? Here is our unscientific look at things:

    Worst-case for OSU: 8th

    Best-case: 3rd
    Six zero or one-loss teams did not lose in week 12. No. 9 Stanford is leading Cal 28-21 as I'm typing.

    Held Serve:

    1. LSU
    3. Alabama
    6. Arkansas
    8. Virginia Tech
    10. Boise State
    11. Houston

    Undetermined:
    9. Stanford
    Given that OSU has just one-loss, you can reject all two-loss teams. In the week 11 standings, No. 12 was the dividing line between 0/1-loss teams and those with two, so everyone below 12 is irrelevant to this discussion. Here are the teams that joined that grouping.
    New two-loss teams:
    4. Oregon
    5. Oklahoma
    7. Clemson

    How we're reaching the worst-case status of eighth should be apparent at this point. Where OSU lands between the worst- and best-case will depend on the human polls and computers. In the human polls, voters are unlikely to place OSU below one-loss Boise and undefeated Houston. Virginia Tech and Stanford (assuming they hold on against Cal) would be question marks at this point. Arkansas would seem likely to be ahead of OSU in the human polls.


    In the computers, the Cowboys have been strong all season, as has the Big 12 overall. It seems reasonable to expect OSU will remain strong relative to everyone except the SEC teams.


    Our overall (*totally unscientific) projection for OSU on Sunday night:

    1. LSU

    2. Alabama

    3. Arkansas

    4. Stanford - assuming a win against Cal

    5. Oklahoma State

  • With games currently on-going, it's a bit tough to project where Oklahoma State will wind up in the BCS standings when they're released on Sunday. It is pretty simple to figure out the worst-case scenario, though.

    The dividing line in last week's standing came between numbers 11 and 12. Houston was the lowest-ranked zero or one-loss team at 11. South Carolina was the top two-loss team. Thus, 11th is the low-water mark for OSU, if there are no other losses for teams in last week's top 11 in the BCS standings.

    There is a very good chance the Pokes are as high as 9th, even without other losses. They have been very strong in the computer component of the BCS, and will remain so. Voters may put them ahead of a one-loss Boise State and no-loss Houston.

    Things will be much clearer by midnight, but for now it's safe to assume No. 11 is the worst-case.

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