NC State Preview
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All-time series: Clemson leads 49-27-1
All-time series in Clemson: Clemson leads 21-11
All-time series in Raleigh: Clemson leads 17-15
Last Meeting: 2008: Clemson 27 NC State 9
Dabo Swinney: 10-6
Tom O’Brien: 90-64 overall (15-19 at NCSU)
Streak: Clemson has won five in a row
When: Saturday, November 14
Where: Raleigh, (NC) - Carter Finley Stadium (57,583)
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: Raycom Sports - Steve Martin, Doc Walker, Mike Hogewood
Latest Line: Clemson by 8
Extra: Bartow’s Football Predix | Weekend Preview & Picks
Clemson Message Boards: Tigerillustrated.com
NC State Message Boards: TheWolfpacker.com
Quarterback
Russell Wilson is the latest in a line of highly regarded quarterbacks Clemson’s defense will have dealt with by tomorrow afternoon. Wilson, who ranks 16th nationally in pass efficiency, will be the fifth top 25 QB to tangle with the Tigers’ sixth-ranked pass defense. The 2008 first-team All-ACC pick held a 17-1 touchdown to interception ratio as a freshman. This fall Wilson has a 24-9 TD/INT ratio, and has completed 60.4-percent of his throws. Wilson has passed for 2,351 yards.
Clemson’s Kyle Parker has had his share of growing pains, as expected, in his first year as a starter, but has guided the Tiger offense through a four-game win streak. Parker is completing 53.2-percent of his passes, and owns a 14-9 TD/INT ratio. He has thrown for 1,665 yards.
It should be noted that both QBs are mobile, particularly Wilson who has rushed for nearly 300 yards and four scores this season. Advantage: NC STATE
Running Back - Running Game
NCSU ranks seventh in the ACC in rushing offense, averaging 135.9 yards a game, a slight improvement over last year’s output (123 ypg). Senior big-back Toney Baker (offered by Clemson) has no doubt paid his share of dues, spending a major portion of his career on the shelf (injuries). But he’s the primary ball-carrier in the Wolfpack’s offense this season (588 yards, 5.2 AVG, 6 TD). Jamelle Eugene is third in rushing behind Baker and Wilson (226 yards, 3.5 AVG, 2 TD).
Clemson’s ground attack also has shown improvement this year, averaging 160 ypg (#3 in the ACC), up notably from last year’s average (112 ypg). Heisman Trophy Award candidate C.J. Spiller (offered by NCSU) has been the leader here, carrying 739 yards (5.5 AVG) and five scores into this game, despite limited action in several match-ups. Freshman backup Andre Ellington has produced in a big way when given opportunities to spell Spiller. Ellington has accumulated 335 yards (7.4 AVG) and two touchdowns. Sophomore big-back Jamie Harper suffered a thigh bruise against Florida State, but he’ll be available for NCSU. Harper has rushed for 217 yards on 59 carries. Advantage: CLEMSON
Wide Receiver & Tight End
Five Wolfpack players have at least 19 receptions. Sophomore tight end George Bryan (offered by Clemson) is the leader with 35 catches for 364 yards and six scores. Junior receiver Jarvis Williams is in his second year as a starter, and has tallied 33 catches for 428 yards and seven scores. Baker also has gotten action out of the backfield (23 REC, 280 YDS, 3 TD). Junior wideout Owen Spencer posted a stellar 22.3-yard average a year ago, and has bettered that in 2009 (511 yards, 25.5 AVG, 3 TD). Darrell Davis, a junior, has 305 yards and a TD on 19 catches.
While State ranks third in the ACC in passing offense, Clemson ranks seventh, averaging 201 yards a game. Jacoby Ford is this unit’s leader with 37 grabs for 493 yards and four TDs. Senior tight end Michael Palmer has been a surprise in the Tigers’ pass game, and is second in catches with 23 (253 YDS, 2 TD), which is the most catches by a Clemson tight end in 25 years. Spiller also has been productive in the pass game, with 21 catches for 334 yards and three scores. And junior receiver Xavier Dye is working to turn the corner, after having the best game of his career a week ago. Dye, who quit the team after week two, now has 10 catches for 171 yards and two scores.
Collectively, the Pack has had more consistent production from its receivers this season. Advantage: NC STATE
Offensive Line
State has suffered a couple of blows to its offensive front this fall, first with the loss of freshman Denzelle Good, who the Pack stole out of South Carolina, and secondly freshman starting guard R.J. Mattes (offered by Clemson), who sustained a torn ACL in the Florida State game.
Veterans Ted Larsen (C 6-2, 296), Jeraill McCuller (RT 6-7, 325), Julian Williams (LG 6-5, 309, & offered by Clemson) and Jake Vermiglio (LT 6-5, 315) are part of a group that’s allowed 22 sacks this season, sixth-best in the conference. Absorbing the loss of Mattes is a senior, Andy Barbee (6-3, 310), who played in all 13 games a year ago.
Clemson’s front has allowed 16 sacks, tied for third-best in the ACC. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney said this group did not commit a missed assignment a week ago in the Tigers’ 40-24 win over Florida State. The Tigers will roll with the same starting lineup - Chris Hairston (Jr., LT 6-7, 325), Thomas Austin (Sr., LG 6-3 ½, 310), Dalton Freeman (Fr., C 6-5, 280), Antoine McClain (So., RG 6-6, 320) and Landon Walker (So., RT 6-5, 305 & offered by NCSU). Sophomore Mason Cloy (offered by NCSU & 430 snaps) will get plenty of time floating between left guard to right guard, and sophomore David Smith (138 snaps) will again get some solid minutes at right tackle. Advantage: CLEMSON
Defensive Line
N.C. State’s front gives up 3.5 yards a carry and 117.3 rushing yards a game. Alan-Michael Cash (6-1, 291) may be one of the more underrated interior front-men in the ACC. The senior has 41 tackles, 18 quarterback pressures and two sacks. Veteran end Willie Young (6-4, 250) has again been productive this season, and leads this team in sacks (7) and tackles for loss (10). Senior tackle Leroy Burgess (6-1, 290), a former Georgia Military Academy standout, has 20 stops on the season. Senior strong-side end Shea McKeen (6-5, 265) has 25 stops and nine pressures. Keep an eye on sophomore tackle J.R. Sweezy (6-5, 280), who should get plenty of work. Sweezy has 14 tackles and seven pressures.
Clemson’s front allows 131.3 rushing yards a game, and the Tigers rank first in the ACC in sacks (24). Explosive sophomore end Da’Quan Bowers (offered by NCSU) is out with a knee injury, but in his place the Tigers will again lean on true freshman Malliciah Goodman (6-4, 265) at the strong-side spot. Goodman has 21 tackles and five tackles for loss. Tackles Brandon Thompson (6-2, 305) and Jarvis Jenkins (6-4, 310) have combined for 76 tackles, and nine tackles for loss. Senior end Ricky Sapp (6-4, 240) leads the Tigers in tackles for loss (10), pressures (12) and sacks (4). Ends Andre Branch and Kevin Alexander also should get work at the strong-side end position.
We’re not totally sold on State’s front. NCSU has not faced Georgia Tech’s option-attack, and in fact has squared off against just one team that ranks in the top seven of the ACC in rushing offense - Boston College. Also on the Pack’s schedule and included in its two wins were match-ups with Gardner-Webb and Murray State. Advantage: CLEMSON
Linebacker
N.C. State’s coaches did get some good news this week. Veteran backer Ray Michel (ankle) was listed as probable on Thursday night’s injury report. Michel ranks second on the team in tackles (53). Sophomore strong-side backer Audie Cole is the Pack’s leading tackler (57), and has four sacks, second on the team. Sophomore WILL backer Dwayne Maddox has notched 44 tackles and three tackles for loss. State has built some depth here this season. Sterling Lucas (31 tackles) and Terrell Manning (31 tackles & offered by Clemson) have received plenty of work. Backers Nate Irving (leg) and Ryan Cheek (hip) are out for the season.
Sophomore MIKE backer Brandon Maye leads this unit in stops (59), sacks (2) and pressures (11). Senior WILL backer Kavell Conner (55 tackles) is fourth on the team in tackles. Alexander had arguably the best game of his career last week. He has split time between end and SAM backer, and has 27 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. We’d give State an edge if Irving were in the lineup. Advantage: CLEMSON
Defensive Back
NCSU ranks eighth in the conference in pass defense, 57th nationally, allowing 216.3 yards a game. Senior safety Clem Johnson leads this unit in tackles (51). Talented red-shirt freshman Earl Wolff is fifth on the team in tackles (46). State will roll with two freshman corners - Jarvis Byrd (6 tackles) and C.J. Wilson (15 stops). Junior corner DeAndre Morgan (23 tackles & offered by Clemson) has received a lot of action, as has freshman starting safety Brandon Bishop (24 tackles). Veteran defender Bobby Floyd (47 tackles) also has logged a ton of minutes.
Clemson ranks second in the ACC in pass defense, sixth nationally, allowing just 159.3 yards a game. Hard-hitting safety DeAndre McDaniel (offered by NCSU) has been on a tear this year, and delivered another strong performance last week against the Seminoles. McDaniel leads the Tigers in tackles (65) and INTs (8), which ties for the national lead. Red-shirt freshman backup safety Rashard Hall has quietly picked up five picks in his own right, and has 45 tackles in 313 snaps. Veteran DBs Chris Chancellor (27 tackles & offered by NCSU) and Crezdon Butler (23 tackles & offered by NCSU) give the Tigers the most experienced corner tandem in the league. Junior free safety Marcus Gilchrist (59 tackles & offered by NCSU) and junior corner Byron Maxwell (24 tackles) also have been highly productive this season. The Tigers rank #1 in the league in interceptions (19). NCSU ranks 10th (7) in that category. Advantage: CLEMSON
Special Teams
NCSU ranks 76th nationally in punt return yardage defense, 85th in kickoff return yardage defense. Johnson is now the Pack’s primary return man (15.2 AVG-P-return & 19.5 AVG-K-return), after T.J. Graham was lost on October 17 (stress fracture). Junior place-kicker Josh Czajkowski has hit on eight of 10 shots, with a long of 48. Senior punter Jeff Ruiz is averaging 38.8 yards a boot.
The Tigers rank 108th nationally in punt return yardage defense, 26th in kickoff return yardage defense. Spiller saw limited action by design versus Coastal Carolina, and didn’t break off a long return last week, but for the season has three returns for scores, as well as a punt return for a TD. Ford also has taken a punt return to the house. Freshman kicker Spencer Benton will start tomorrow, but junior Richard Jackson (17 of 25) will play. Jackson is not starting due to an academic related issue. He missed two easy shots a week ago, and will be under the magnifying glass in this game. Sophomore punter Dawson Zimmerman is averaging 39.9 yards a boot. Advantage: CLEMSON
Overview & Prediction
N.C. State’s football program is on solid ground. Tom O’Brien is a good football coach and will win in Raleigh. O’Brien’s last two recruiting classes filled needs across the board, particularly on the offensive and defensive lines. But in 2008 NCSU was decimated with injuries. Such is the case again this fall, as now a whopping 12 players have been lost with season-ending injuries.
1. CB Rashard Smith (ankle)
2. WR T.J. Graham (leg)
3. RB James Washington (knee)
4. DE Jeff Rieskhamp (hernia)
5. OL R.J. Mattes (ACL)
6. TE Mario Carter (knee)
7. LB Ryan Cheek (hip)
8. OL Denzelle Good (shoulder)
9. LB Nate Irving (leg)
10. FB Colby Jackson (knee)
11. QB Everett Proctor (shoulder)
12. SS Javon Walker (knee)
The Wolfpack offense is second in the league in scoring (33.7) and third overall (417.2 ypg), and it’s here where the Pack must continue to produce at a high level if it has any shot at all of running the table, which it must do in order to get to a bowl game, given that two of its four wins came against Murray State and Gardner-Webb.
Defensively, as we documented above, we’re not fully sold on this unit yet. It does rank seventh in the ACC, allowing 333.7 yards a game, and did hold Maryland to 270 yards last week in another shootout.
Speaking of Maryland, the Terrapins are now just 2-7, and have not won a game since they upset two-touchdown favorite Clemson on October 3. Conversely, the Tigers haven’t lost a game since that day, and have averaged 41.7 ppg in its four wins.
Clemson, at 6-3 and 4-2 in the ACC, needs to win out over N.C. State and Virginia (3-6, 2-3) in order to claim the Atlantic Division title. Should the Tigers beat the Pack tomorrow and UVA upsets BC, then the Tigers can clinch tomorrow, given that it owns the tiebreaker over the Eagles.
State has essentially three things to play for in this game:
The psychology here suggests that the Tigers could come out flat. When you’ve recruited better and you’ve got better football players across the board, you’ve defeated a team five straight years and own the all-time series with a 49-27-1 advantage, and it’s roster that’s hit hard with injuries on a team that has a losing record, Clemson, coming off an emotional, high intensity performance over FSU in ESPN’s primetime slot must now take its act on the road for a Raycom, 12 p.m. game.
If one picks up the dictionary to look up the definition of trap game, somewhere in that passage it should read: Clemson vs. N.C. State, November 14.
Swinney has worked hard this week to guard against a letdown and keep players focused on the overall, as well as what’s at hand in Raleigh in a game that has the Tigers an eight-point lined favorite. Blocking, tackling, throwing and catching, overall team speed, and a majority of the match-ups here favor the Tigers.
In Clemson’s four-game win streak, they’ve covered in three of those, with obviously no line set on the Coastal Carolina match-up.
It should be noted that O’Brien is a stellar 7-3 against the spread as a home underdog since becoming NCSU’s head coach. But the Tigers are now a solid 17-6 straight up in their last 23 November games, and during that stretch a respectable 14-9 against the spread.
And finally, over the last 12 years, the visitor in this series is an impressive 10-2 against the spread. CLEMSON by 10+
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