Instant Analysis of the Purdue Loss

It’s always hard to tell what players are thinking, and fans tend to project their own psychology onto the team. But there does seem to be a pronounced change in the psychology of this team. Early in the year, going into a close fourth quarter game, you felt as if Michigan would win. By the point, as a fan, you’re just waiting for disaster. Are the players, too? It’s all a guess, but it sure seems as if they do, too.

Two things happened over and over to let Purdue outplay Michigan. First, numerous coverage busts allowed Joey Elliot to throw to completely uncovered receivers. Purdue’s first touchdown came on a coverage bust - nobody covered tight end Ralph Bolden on a blitz. Purdue’s go-ahead touchdown came on a bust - safety Jordan Kovacs let Cortez Smith run behind him unmolested. And several others happened in between.

The usual string of missed assignments by safeties and linebackers were interspersed between. J.B. Fitzgerald came in to play middle linebacker, bumping Kevin Leach to weakside linebacker. By the end of the game, Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton had returned. Linebacker coach Jay Hopson appears completely desperate at this point.

Second, Michigan could not pass block, especially against Ryan Kerrigan. This let the Boilermakers pressure Tate Forcier with just four rushers. Michigan responded with a series of screens and draws, but that’s no substitute for an effective downfield passing attack.

These failures put Michigan into a razor-tight shootout against an opponent they had figured, a few weeks before, for a sure win. The game thus came down to a handful of big plays. In the first half, Michigan made them. Roy Roundtree snatched away a third and fifteen pass from a linebacker, extending a drive that ended in a touchdown. Michigan picked up two interceptions, one on a tipped ball.

But in the second half, breaks went the other way. Purdue go a perfect bounce on a surprise onside kick. Michigan came within inches of recovering its own onside kick. Perhaps the biggest play of the game was a Mark Huyge holding penalty that brought back a Brandon minor touchdown run with about five minutes left in the game, that would have brought Michigan within a two-point conversion of tying the game. And, of course, Michigan missed an extra point that proved decisive.

Perhaps the most questionable coaching decision came with 8:40 left in the game and Michigan down by eight points. Facing a fourth and one, Michigan punted to Purdue. If Michigan had picked up a yard against a Purdue front seven that has had trouble stopped the run all year, it could have had the chance to score, try for the tying two-point conversion, and get the ball back with adequate time to score in the conversion failed.

It’s hard to believe that, just three weeks ago, Michigan stood 5-2, and took bowl eligibility for granted. Right now, a five game losing streak to end the season looks very likely. The question is, can these coaches pull the players out of their mental funk for the last two games? How about next season?