Scouting report: Previewing Michigan-Purdue
Michigan’s offensive line has struggled in recent weeks at protecting quarterback Tate Forcier, allowing nine sacks in consecutive defeats, and now faces one of the Big Ten’s best pass-rushing defenses …
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GAME FACTS
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What: Purdue at Michigan. When: Nov. 7, 12:01 p.m., in Ann Arbor. Radio-TV: The game will be broadcast live by the Big Ten Network. Wayne Larrivee will handle the play-by-play with Chris Martin serving as the color analyst. The contest will be carried by the Michigan Sports Network (104.3 FM) and its 34 affiliates and can also be heard on Sirius Satellite Radio. History: Michigan leads the series with Purdue, 41-13-0. Last Meeting: Purdue 48, Michigan 42, 2007. Coaches: Michigan: Rich Rodriguez (8-13, second season). Purdue: Danny Hope (3-6, first season). Purdue Notes: Purdue is looking to snap a 16-game losing streak at The Big House this weekend … With a victory earlier this year over Ohio State, the Boilermakers could post wins over OSU and U-M in the same season for the first time since 2000 … With its 26-18 win over the seventh-ranked Buckeyes Oct. 7, PU snapped a 19-game winless streak against top 25 opponents … Sophomore Carson Wiggs’ 59-yard field goal against Toledo was the seventh longest in Big Ten history. |
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| MATCHUPS |
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| Matchup |
Analysis |
Winner |
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| Michigan’s Pass Protection Vs. Purdue’s Pass Rush |
Now
is probably not the best time to be facing one of the Big Ten’s best
pass-rushing teams. The Boilermakers rank fourth in the league with 24
sacks, including a conference-high nine from junior defensive end Ryan
Kerrigan. It probably doesn’t matter which U-M tackle he matches up
with because both fifth-year senior Mark Ortmann and redshirt junior
Perry Dorrestein are struggling. The entire line is for that matter,
allowing nine takedowns in the past two weeks, including four to an
Illinois’ front seven that entered play with a mere seven sacks in
seven games. |
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| Purdue’s Pass Protection Vs. Michigan’s Pass Rush |
Michigan
sold out last weekend to reach the quarterback (but at what cost?) and
it paid off some with a season-high four sacks. The Wolverines have
been consistent this year, recording at least two takedowns in six of
nine contests and now that senior end Brandon Graham is firing on all
cylinders, the front seven is even more dangerous. However, U-M faces a
stiff challenge this week; the Boilermakers rank fourth in the Big Ten
allowing just 14 sacks this season. Purdue’s line is not physical, but
it is effective and quarterback Joey Elliott doesn’t hold onto the ball
very long. |
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| Michigan’s Rush Offense Vs. Purdue’s Rush Defense |
Wisconsin gashed the Boilermakers a week ago on the ground, piling up 266 yards and two touchdowns en route to a 37-0 shutout win. Running on Purdue seems to be a winning formula and the Maize and Blue are supposedly the Big Ten’s best running team (if you continue to go off the stats). Michigan has to re-establish its ground-game presence, though, this week after being forced to abandon (or willingly giving up) its reliance on the run in losses to Penn State and Illinois. If the Wolverines stick to their game plan, however, they should have a big day. | ||
| Purdue’s Rush Offense Vs. Michigan’s Rush Defense |
After
starting the season with a bang, rushing for 485 yards in the first two
weeks of the season, Purdue has seen its ground game become almost
nonexistent in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers are averaging only 105.0
yards in five league contests while sophomore sensation Ralph Bolden is
down to a 53.8-yard average in Big Ten games versus the 122.0 yards he
averaged in the nonconference. But as bad as they’ve been slipping, the
Boilermakers can count on a matchup with U-M to rejuvenate, or so one
would expect after watching the Maize and Blue fold against the run in
recent weeks. |
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| Michigan’s Pass Offense Vs. Purdue’s Pass Defense |
Despite
a secondary that ranks fourth in the conference in pass defense,
allowing just 194.7 yards per game, while listing second with just six
touchdowns surrendered through the air and fourth in pass efficiency
defense with a 108.1 rating, this matchup is all about what Michigan
does. The Boilermakers have surprised many but they still lack the
athletes to go one-on-one with the Maize and Blue. However, that won’t
be a problem if the line cannot protect Forcier and if the young
signal-caller continues to make poor decisions with the football (and
if his receivers drop balls). |
PUSH
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| Purdue’s Pass Offense Vs. Michigan’s Pass Defense |
Michigan’s
best hope this week is that Purdue’s receivers haven’t recovered
mentally from the 11 dropped passes they had a week ago and continue to
struggle. If that doesn’t happen, it could be a long day for a Maize
and Blue secondary that … let’s face it, is a big play waiting to
happen. U-M’s cornerbacks cannot play tight coverage and cannot take
chances because if they miss, there is no safety help. Essentially, the
Wolverines’ poor safety play has taken much of the aggressiveness out
of Donovan Warren—he hasn’t had a pass breakup or an interception in
three weeks. |
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| Michigan’s Special Teams Vs. Purdue’s Special Teams |
Purdue
boasts the Big Ten’s strongest-legged kicker in sophomore Carson Wiggs.
The Grand Prairie, Texas, native made a 59-yarder against Toledo and
added a 55-yarder in a win over Ohio State so there is no attempt off
limits to him. However, the rest of the Boilermakers’ special teams are
quite pathetic. They rank 10th in the Big Ten in net punting at 34.9
yards per punt with senior Chris Summers averaging only 39.1 yards.
Perhaps this is the week where U-M breaks a big one (as it did last
year at Purdue). The Wolverines certainly need some special teams’
help. |
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| Michigan’s Coaching Vs. Purdue’s Coaching |
First-year
head coach Danny Hope certainly isn’t a proven commodity yet and his
on-the-job training has been rough at times (i.e. Notre Dame when he
called a timeout for the Irish with less than 30 seconds remaining) but
it’s not like Michigan’s Rich Rodriguez has proven himself far superior
this year. The Wolverines need leadership right now as they seek to
regain their confidence and it’s up to Rodriguez and his staff to
instill that confidence in them. |
PUSH |
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| PURDUE PLAYERS TO WATCH |
PURDUE QUOTES OF THE WEEK
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Sophomore tailback Ralph Bolden One of the Big Ten’s top rushers this season, ranking third among conference ball carriers with 757 yards and 84.1 yards per game, the 5-9, 194-pound, Folkston, Ga., native had a superb start to 2009, rushing for 234 yards in a win over Toledo and 123 yards in a week-two loss at Oregon. In the past seven contests, however, he’s averaged only 57.1 yards per game. He needs just 243 yards in the final three games, though, to become the ninth Boilermaker with a 1,000-yard campaign. |
“There
were more things that need to be corrected and more things that need to
be addressed, but it wasn’t of any negative, it was constructive so we
can move on and get ready to win the next game.” — Coach Danny Hope, on bouncing back after last week’s loss. |
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Junior wide receiver Keith Smith A huge target at 6-2, 226 pounds, Smith has caught at least one ball in 21 straight games. The Fort Hood, Texas, native ranks second in the Big Ten in receptions (6.7 per game) and second in receiving yards (86.6 per game), while scoring four times. Smith has recorded five 100-yard efforts this fall and needs just two more to tie the school record of seven shared by Steve Griffin (1984) and John Standeford (2002). |
“You
go back to teaching basic fundamentals without harping on it too much.
It’s like if you’re a good free throw shooter and you miss one or two,
you don’t do go changing a whole lot. You make sure you’re doing it the
same way every time, concentrating.” — Offensive coordinator Gary Nord, on solving his receivers’ dropped-balls problem. |
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Junior defensive End Ryan Kerrigan Eighth all time in career sacks among Boilermaker defenders with 17.0, the 6-4, 263-pound, Muncie, Ind., native leads the Big Ten in quarterback takedowns this year with nine and lists third in total stops behind the line of scrimmage with 14.5. He faces off with a U-M offensive line that ranks seventh in the league with 19 sacks allowed. |
“We’d
like to be able to get some turnovers, put them in some bad situations
and get some positive plays for our defense and give our offense the
ball in good field position. But I think that’s part of their youth. …
They’ve had some issues that aren’t all that different than some of the
ones we’ve had.” — Defensive coordinator Donn Landholm, on forcing the turnovers that have become common for Michigan. |
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Senior linebacker Jason Werner Injured often throughout his career, Werner is finally capitalizing on his immense potential this season. The 6-4, 221-pounder leads the Boilermakers with 63 tackles and ranks 17th in the Big Ten with 7.0 per game. He has also been a consistent disruptive force in opposing offensive backfields, matching Kerrigan with a team-high 14.5 tackles for loss. |
“I
think it’s more important now than ever that they have balance. That’s
something Danny Hope really wants and when you have both a passing game
and a running game that can beat you then, obviously, it makes you
multi-dimensional and that wasn’t a strength of Purdue football for the
past decade under Joe Tiller.” — GoldandBlack.com writer Brian Neubert said, in regards to Purdue’s success running the football. |
| PREDICTION |
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| It’s cliché,
but it’s true this week—early success will be key for both teams and
could decide this Saturday’s outcome. Both teams are coming off
devastating and demoralizing losses a week ago and need something to
build on quickly. If one can jump out to a two-score lead by halftime,
it will likely spell doom for the opponent. U-M fans are hoping that
team is Michigan but there is no guarantee. More likely, however, you
will see both teams struggle through some ugly moments with the contest
to be decided in the fourth quarter. We’re giving the edge to the
Wolverines simply because they’re at home. Score: Michigan
24, Purdue 21. |
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Updated Nov 6, 9:00 am EST
