Stanford Hoping to Catch Ducks At Good Time

Stanford plays Oregon on Nov. 7 in what is the best possible scenario for the Cardinal.

The Ducks no doubt will be favored after taking apart USC on Oct. 31 and taking control of the Pac-10 race, but the chances for a Stanford victory, which would put the Cardinal back in the Rose Bowl race, are significantly enhanced by the situation.

Oregon is coming off that emotional win over USC, and it will be difficult for the Ducks to maintain that level of intensity in the next game, particularly with all the congratulations Oregon has received in the days following the victory. Turning complete attention to Stanford will be a chore.
ADVERTISEMENT

“If you have the good fortune to beat USC, people want to talk about it all week,” Oregon State coach Mike Riley said. “It’s always a little bit scary (for the next game). I think it’s a trap.”

Second, Stanford is coming off a bye, and teams almost always play well when they have two weeks to prepare for an opponent. It is particularly important for the Cardinal, which will have a rested Toby Gerhart ready to go.

Third, the Cardinal has plenty of confidence itself at this point, having played its best game of the season in its most recent game, a 33-14 victory over Arizona State on Oct. 24. Not only did the Cardinal prove to itself-and everyone else-that it can run against a good rushing defense, but redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck played his best game and is improving each game.

Finally, the game is at Stanford, where the Cardinal is undefeated this season. The Ducks have been OK on the road, but are clearly much better at home. Oregon won both its conference road games by convincing scores, but both games turned on special-teams and defensive plays that made the margin bigger than it might have been.

Although all the intangibles are in Stanford’s favor, the matchups are not. Oregon might have the best run defense in the conference, and that may make it difficult for Stanford to control the ball for long periods with its physical ground game.

Keeping the ball away from Oregon’s offense will be vital, because the Cardinal’s defense, which lacks speed, might be overmatched by the Ducks’ spread option attack, which is tailor-made to take advantage of the Cardinal’s defensive shortcomings. Stanford will have trouble keeping quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and quick running back LaMichael James in check with so much area to cover, and the Cardinal secondary seems ill-equipped to handle Masoli’s passing threat.

Stanford must hope the Ducks are a little flat, that Luck is sharp and that it gets a break in special teams, all of which seem possible.

NOTES, QUOTES

• The Cardinal plays three of its final four games at home. Stanford is 4-0 at home this season and went 4-1 at home last season, losing only to USC. However, all four of the remaining opponents-Oregon, USC, Cal and Notre Dame-are ranked in the top 25. Stanford is 2-21 against ranked teams since 2002.

• A Stanford win in any of its final four games will make the Cardinal bowl-eligible for the first time since 2001 and would also give the Cardinal its most wins in a season since 2001.

• Toby Gerhart needs six yards to record the eighth 1,000-yard rushing season in Stanford history. He is 142 yards shy of the single-season school record he set last season.

• Oregon RB LeGarrette Blount, who was suspended for punching a Boise State player in the season opener, might be back for the Stanford game, although a decision had not been reached as of Nov. 2.

Series History: Stanford leads 43-28-1 (last meeting 2008, 35-28 Oregon)

Scouting The Offense: The improvement of redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck has given Stanford the offensive balance it needs to be productive against most defenses, including Oregon’s. Ryan Whalen has developed into one of the top receivers in the conference, and he and Luck seem to have developed a rapport on the field. Toby Gerhart had perhaps his best game in the Oct. 24 victory over Arizona State, rushing for 125 yards against the Sun Devils’ strong run defense. Jim Harbaugh continues to add wrinkles to the offense to enhance its physical identity. He likes to use seven offensive linemen in red-zone situations, trying to just overpower defenses. It has been fairly successful.

Scouting The Defense: The lack of speed on the Cardinal defense may be very noticeable against Oregon, which will spread the field and take advantage of its many weapons and options. Defensive coordinator Ron Lynn has been shuffling defensive backs around, and there was a slight improvement when he made Quinn Evans and Johnson Bademosi the starting cornerbacks in the most recent game. Nonetheless, Stanford has not been good at stopping the run or the pass, and Lynn will have his hands full trying to develop a scheme to stop the Ducks’ many options, especially with a quarterback as elusive as Jeremiah Masoli. However, the Cardinal did have success against the conference’s other double-threat quarterback, Washington’s Jake Locker.

Quote To Note: “I think Andrew Luck is the best quarterback in the country.”-Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh.

STRATEGY AND PERSONNEL

This Week ‘S GAME: Oregon at Stanford, Nov. 7-Oregon has beaten the Cardinal seven times in a row, including 35-28 last year. The last time Stanford beat Oregon was 2001, when the Cardinal beat Oregon 49-42 in Eugene for the Ducks’ only loss in a season in which they wound up ranked No. 2 in the country. Last season, Stanford took a 28-27 lead with 2:18 left before Oregon drove 74 yards for the winning score with six seconds left. Stanford is unbeaten at home, but it has not played a team as good as Oregon. The Cardinal’s four home wins came against San Jose State, which has yet to beat an FBS team, and teams currently in seventh, eighth and ninth place in the Pac-10. Stanford did a pretty good job against Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli last season, limiting him to 144 passing yards and 46 rushing yards.

Keys To The Game: If Stanford can run the ball and control the clock, the Cardinal has a chance. Stanford cannot let Oregon’s offense get into a rhythm, because it will overwhelm the Cardinal defense if it gets its no-huddle attack in gear. Long offensive possessions may prevent Oregon from getting into a groove, and when the Ducks offense struggles, it can look mediocre and make some mistakes. Andrew Luck needs to be efficient, which means avoiding turnovers and hitting short passes, again hoping to churn out long possessions. A big play by the Cardinal special teams, such as a long runback by Chris Owusu, may be the extra boost Stanford needs, especially if it comes early in the game.

Players To Watch: TB Toby Gerhart-Oregon’s defense may present the stiffest challenge for the Cardinal’s power running game, but if Gerhart can churn out consistent gains, it will change the pace of the game in Stanford’s favor. A 100-yard game by Gerhart may translate into the ball-control offense Stanford needs. Consistent gains by backup tailback Stepfan Taylor would be helpful, too.

• LB Clinton Snyder-Snyder is one of the few Cardinal defenders capable of making a big play against Oregon’s multi-faceted offense. The first order of business will be stopping the Ducks’ ground game, and Snyder must be the key person in preventing LaMichael James from having long runs. Containing Jeremiah Masoli is also a focal point for Snyder. Masoli cannot be allowed to roam free and feel comfortable, and Snyder is the player most likely to minimize Masoli’s effectiveness.

-qb Andrew Luck-Luck must be efficient and error-free for Stanford to have a chance. He has been sacked only five times, but Oregon is second in the conference with 24 sacks, so he must avoid bad plays. He seems to be getting better each game, and he will need to play his most efficient game for the Cardinal to control the ball and have a chance. If he fumbles or throws interceptions that put Stanford’s defense in bad situations, Oregon’s offense will probably make the Cardinal pay.

Roster Report: DE Erik Lorig, one of the Cardinal’s best defensive players, has not played the past three games because of a groin injury and he is questionable for the Nov. 7 game against Oregon.

• OT Allen Smith injured his knee in the Oct. 24 game against Arizona State and will miss the next two or three games and possibly the rest of the season.

• QB Andrew Lucks leads the Pac-10 in pass efficiency.

• Toby Gerhart has 13 rushing touchdowns, tied for fourth in the country.