Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

  • Clemson 40, Florida State 24. We've had a long time to watch C.J. Spiller now, and the book on his career to date is more or less identical to the book on his team: Enormously talented, hyped, capable of isolated dominance but also prone to inconsistency and disappearing over surprisingly long stretches of time. Spiller's rushing totals dropped with each successive season over his first three years, and fairly or not, he's been largely viewed as emblematic of a team known for blowing opportunity and potential.

    There's still plenty of time for that narrative to reemerge over the next month, but tonight any hint of disappointment or untapped potential is a whisper beneath the blaring siren of one of the great efforts of the season -- emphasis on effort: Still clearly ailing from the assortment of nicks that essentially sidelined him last week against Charleston Southern, Spiller gashed Florida State for 306 total yards (165 rushing, 67 receiving, 74 in the return game), just a few yards shy of the school record he set two weeks ago in the Tigers' overtime win at Miami. That included runs of 45, 36 and 21 yards and a touchdown reception from 58 yards out, a couple of which he couldn't quite finish because his legs visibly stopped working at the end; on the sideline, Spiller appeared to be on the verge of hocking an organ onto the field.

    He still commanded the ball, 29 times altogether, and Florida State was helpless to stop him in the second half. When his injuries and exhaustion did what FSU could not, he was the first player off the bench to celebrate when his teammates punched in a late touchdown, and his first move after the game was to seek out Bobby Bowden among the throng on the field for a handshake.

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  • By any measure, California had a dreadful night against Oregon State -- the Beavers quickly led 14-0 and ultimately outgained Cal by 200 yards for the game to stick the Bears with their third lopsided conference loss in six games. But none of the losses were worse than the spectacular and spectacularly painful exit of star running back Jahvid Best, who momentarily defied the laws of gravity and paid a very hard price on the Bears' only relevant score of the game:

    Best remained on the ground for an uncomfortably long time, ultimately being carted away on a stretcher with an oxygen mask over his face; the early verdict indicates he does have feeling in all his extremities and is apparently suffering from a concussion.

    Best is often compared to another all-purpose Pac-10 speedster, notorious end zone leaper Reggie Bush, and has gone airborne before. It makes for a nice picture, and if he'd somehow picked himself off the turf after this one, the shot would make Sports Illustrated and live on in infamy. It might, anyway, but hopefully as more of a cautionary tale than an enviable feat. Full-contact games are not made to be played eight feet off the ground.

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    Alabama 24, LSU 15. When Tennessee held Alabama without a touchdown two weeks ago, coach Nick Saban acknowledged after the game that his team may have been "tired" after eight straight games without a bye week; after this game, he said the Tide "played well" in the first half, but was still frustrated that it could only come away with three points in six straight trips inside Tiger territory. 'Bama rolled up 223 yards today before halftime -- almost as many as it gained in the entire game against Tennessee -- but at the same time, after one half, the Tide had still scored a grand total of two offensive touchdowns in its last 14 quarters, with a single TD in 10 trips inside the opponents' red zone. "Tired" or not, Alabama was plagued by the same issues with finishing drives, and this time was staring at a rare halftime deficit at 7-3.

    Against that frustrating backdrop, the second half counts as a kind of rejuvenation for the struggling Tide offense. 'Bama took the opening kickoff of the third quarter 81 yards for a touchdown, its first in almost three weeks; after being hit for a safety on a drive that started at their own one-yard line, the Tide ate up 66 yards in a little over five-and-a-half minutes for a field goal, two-thirds of it on seven carries by Mark Ingram; and still trailing 15-13 and needing a big play in the fourth quarter, they got their biggest play of the year, a 73-yard catch-and-run by the eerily quiet Julio Jones, the sudden, game-turning highlight will join Terrence Cody's blocked field goal as the defining moments of the season if the Tide run the table. (Or, in Alabama terms, the Daniel Moore Moments.)

    Alabama still doesn't win, of course, without the defense; LSU had seven three-and-outs, including two with the game on the line in the fourth quarter, preceding a quick turnover on downs after just one first down to ice the game.

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    Even the Charlie Weis haters among Notre Dame fans haven't had much reason for complaint through the first two months as far as the Weis "hot seat" watch goes: The Irish were on track for 10 wins, showed a penchant for winning close, exciting games with one of the nation's most prolific offenses, were 11 combined points from beating Michigan and USC in their only two losses and ended their losing streak against winning teams by beating Boston College. All in all, a perfectly respectable year.

    But still ...

    Now that the Irish have lost to Navy for the second time in two years -- both in South Bend after beating the Midshipmen 43 years in a row in any location -- and forfeited any realistic opportunity at slipping into a BCS bowl, the next three games against Pittsburgh, UConn and Stanford (combined record: 18-8) may be a referendum for Weis' job. If ND drops any of them, this kid's going to have some company (again).

    - - -
    Hat tip: Deadspin.

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    Ohio State 24, Penn State 7. We don't know exactly how the season is going to play out -- it could very well be, for example, that Penn State just isn't very good. We didn't know much about the Lions coming in, but their offensive malaise and the quiet, steady effectiveness of the Buckeye running game followed exactly the script of Penn State's only other loss this season, in its only other game against another team at the top of the conference. With their lame nonconference schedule and losses to the only teams on the Big Ten slate that might currently fit anyone's definition of "good," there's no evidence at all that the Lions stack up to the top-15 ranking they've carried all season.

    But there's not much question on my end that this is Ohio State's best win since the 2006 team finished its perfect regular season against No.2 Michigan, just before launching the "big game" curse against Florida in the subsequent BCS title game that's followed the Buckeyes ever since. OSU finally played exactly the way it wanted to play against one of the best teams on the schedule -- running for 200-plus yards, getting two touchdown passes with no turnovers from Terrelle Pryor, taking advantage of good field position and forcing seven three-and-outs from the Nittany Lion offense -- and did it on the road. It's not the national championship, but it is the first time Pryor or the vast majority of teammates can come out of a verifiably big game with their heads held high.

    With Iowa's loss to Northwestern, it also sets up the Buckeyes on the track to their first Rose Bowl appearance in more than a decade: They'll be favored to beat the Hawkeyes next week in Columbus, which will put OSU in sole possession of first place in the conference with only badly reeling Michigan standing between it and Pasadena. If they manage to take two must-win conference games in a row and dispatch their hated rival for the sixth consecutive year after nearly losing control of the season in an ugly loss at Purdue, of all places, the Bucks will deserve the trip, and deserve to enjoy it no matter what other big-game demons are sure to await them when they get there.

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    Navy 23, Notre Dame 21. Watching a game like this unfold is almost a surreal experience when you stop to size up the absurd physical differences between these two teams, especially between Notre Dame's offense and Navy's defense. It's one thing to think about how difficult it must be for the Midshipmen's secondary to match up with Notre Dame's 6-foot-6 god of a receiver, Michael Floyd, and another altogether to actually observe the physical impossibility of it with your own eyes, even on television.

    And it's not like Navy really stopped Notre Dame's high-flying offense, either, despite the final score: Floyd and receiving mate Golden Tate hauled in 19 passes between them for 275 yards, more than half of the Irish's 513-yard total, and ND didn't punt once.

    But Navy was able to mitigate the damage by limiting big plays -- before Tate's 31-yard catch-and-run for Notre Dame's last (and ultimately meaningless) touchdown in the final minute, the Midshipmen hadn't allowed a play longer than 30 yards, forcing the Irish to string together long drives that more often than not ended in the Middies' favor; five ND drives of seven plays or longer ended deep in Navy territory with the Irish failing to put points on the board. More importantly, the Midshipmen forced turnovers, three of them, including a Jimmy Clausen fumble at the Navy goal line and then a pick off Clausen inside the Navy five in the fourth quarter. Most of the Irish's obscene output was sound and fury in the service, ultimately, of nothing.

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    Purdue 38, Michigan 36. Mathematically, Michigan is still alive for a bowl game, but at this point, that's like saying "Chrysler is still solvent" or "People are still watching the new Jay Leno show." Technically, yes: At 5-5, if the Wolverines upset Wisconsin on the road or end their five-year losing streak against Ohio State, a bid to the Little Caesar's Bowl may be waiting for them.

    Let's rephrase that with a few more pieces of key information: If the Wolverines snap out of a five-game conference losing streak in which they've now allowed 500 yards and 38 points apiece to Illinois and Purdue in back-to-back weeks to knock off one of the top teams in the conference, they can eke out a bid to the least prestigious postseason date in school history. That's the best-case scenario.

    Today, at home against another struggling outfit struggling just to stay out of the conference cellar (Purdue was routed last week 37-0 by Wisconsin), was the chance for Michigan to end that malaise and salvage whatever goodwill remained from the 4-0 start in September. Instead, the beleaguered secondary gave up four completions of at least 30 yards in the worst aerial assault against Wolverine D (367 yards) since USC in the 2006/07 Rose Bowl. Aside from defensive end Brandon Graham, this rock-bottom defense is like last year's rock-bottom offense: Outmanned, condemned from the outset by a shockingly bare cupboard at key positions and careening quickly toward historic depths every time the ball goes in the air.

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    Northwestern 17, Iowa 10. Anytime a nondescript, 16.5-point underdog rebounds from a quick 10-point hole to upend a 9-0 national-title contender on the road, that is a "shocking" result. There was no reason to think Iowa might lose to a team with a gimpy starting quarterback and whose marquee wins to date included unlikely, skin-of-the-teeth comebacks against Purdue and Indiana. The Hawkeyes' miracle season obviously was not supposed to end here -- next week at Ohio State, maybe, but not at home, to Northwestern.

    I find it hard to believe, though, that anyone who pays greater heed to probability than to miracles is actually experiencing anything like actual shock, especially after quarterback Ricky Stanzi's ignominious exit with an ankle injury on the end zone fumble turned Northwestern touchdown that turned the game in the second quarter and collapsed the Hawkeyes' Jenga tower of a season in a matter of seconds. At some point, it had to happen: Iowa had already survived the loss of its top three running backs and a starting offensive lineman for the season, as well as its best offensive player for a crucial three-game stretch earlier in the season, and emerged unscathed after fourth-quarter comebacks against Northern Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State and Indiana. When you're saddled with one of the worst offenses in the conference, there are only so many miracles at your disposal.

    As much heat as he's taken for his perfectly mediocre performance through the first two months (and his five-interception schizo act against Indiana, in particular), Stanzi's injury was the obvious breaking point. At least the resourceful junior gave the Hawkeyes a chance to move the ball: Their first three drives covered 159 yards and put 10 points on the board off a 74-yard touchdown pass from Stanzi to Marvin McNutt and a 30-yard strike to Trey Stross that set up the field goal. The final eight drives, all led by redshirt freshman James Vandenberg, covered 131 yards, entered Northwestern territory only once and produced zero points. Vandernberg's first pass was a laser directly into the chest of a linebacker that set up the Wildcats' go-ahead touchdown, and his longest completion was just 16 yards. He repeatedly missed open receivers Stanzi may have hit. The high wire snapped when No. 12 went down.

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  • Today's lineup isn't really as mediocre as all that, despite the frustration of both marquee, national-interest games -- LSU-Alabama and Ohio State-Penn State -- competing with one another in the afternoon slot. Major unbeaten teams are defending their title chances early (Iowa, Texas) and late (Florida, Cincinnati) and old rivals are hooking up in Manhattan, Chapel Hill and Lincoln; the Pac-10 alone offers six of the conference's seven winning teams squaring off in Palo Alto, Berkeley and Tempe. The big games should live up to the hype, but something unexpected and interesting is going to happen outside of Tuscaloosa or Happy Valley.

    What: Game day live blog. All games in play, all comments welcome and all alma maters accepted.
    When: First kick at noon Eastern; chat kicks roughly simultaneously. The blog will run throughout the day, through the primetime tilts -- although, as intriguing as an evening in the Kibbie Dome may be, don't hold your breath for midnight-oil action in the WAC.
    Who: You and all your rowdy friends. Come loud, proud and keeping your head on a swivel. We're not responsible for what may happen if you don't.
    How: Hit "Watch Now," enter comments into the available box and do your part to accelerate the slow, agonizing death of conventional journalism.
    Why: Because lobbing snarky barbs at earnest adolescents never gets old, especially when there are endless Kafka jokes on tap for the early afternoon. Football!

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  • Ten hyper-specific predictions.

    Despite rumors of his reinstatement this week, suspended Oregon running back LeGarrette Blount doesn't show at all at Stanford -- not that the Ducks need him as they pile up more than 250 yards rushing on more than six yards per carry for the third consecutive week despite also allowing 100 yards to Stanford's Toby Gerhart and finishing in a six-minute hole in overall time of possession. Freshman running back LaMichael James, sitting on 918 rushing yards, goes over 1,000 for the season in the first half.

    Iowa never trails against Northwestern, yet manages to fully examine the apparent hopelessness and absurdity that seem to permeate the works of Northwestern quarterback Mike Kafka by turning the Wildcats away at least three times inside the Hawkeye 30-yard line, including a pair of turnovers by Kafka that lead him to demand the game film be burned before viewing by the rest of the team on Sunday. After throwing five interceptions in last week's wild comeback over Indiana, Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi doesn't throw an interception but still frustrates the home crowd during a stretch of at least three straight possessions without taking the offense into Wildcat territory.

    In Berkeley, Oregon State running back Jacquizz Rodgers piles up more yards than California's top backs, Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen, combined, and picks off Bear quarterback Kevin Riley multiple times in a close but convincing road upset.

    Oklahoma trails early at Nebraska but piles up more than 200 yards rushing between backs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown and holds the Cornhuskers out of the end zone in the second half, during which Nebraska coach Bo Pelini draws a 15-yard penalty for exploding against officials following a critical call. The 'Husker offense finished below 300 total yards for the fourth time in five games.

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Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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