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Harvard 14, Yale 10. When New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick went with the numbers instead of the conventional wisdom by going for it on fourth down with the lead and the ball in his own territory last Sunday in his team's eventual loss to Indianapolis, it led to a fascinating round of debate over probabilities, "gut feelings" and how to think about risk-taking in more unorthodox, effective ways.

I think it's safe to say Yale coach Tom Williams' ill-fated fourth down gamble in the Bulldogs' loss to Harvard today won't be inspiring any of those debates (emphasis added):

NEW HAVEN, Conn. (AP)—Yale's first-year coach Tom Williams says he's ready to take responsibility for the Bulldogs' eighth loss in the last nine games to rival Harvard.

Yale was ahead 10-7 Saturday with just 2:25 left when it failed to convert a fake punt on fourth-and-22 from its 26, and wound up losing 14-10.

"The whole idea was to keep our foot on the pedal, and not play scared," said Williams in trying to explain the call. "If anyone is looking for somebody to blame, blame this guy right here."

Presumably, Williams was referring to himself, and not some poor freshie doomed to be forced to cite a Euclidian proposition while being trimmed by would-be initiates of Skull & Bones. (Which would be fine if he didn't have to rely on townies for his ride back into New Haven.)

Harvard turned the fake -- a 15-yard run by safety John Powers -- into the go-ahead points less than a minute later, on a 32-yard touchdown pass from the very Harvardly-named Collier Winters to Chris Lorditch, which effectively shut the door on Yale and lifted the Crimson to 7-3 for the season. And still, I'm not sure that it's any crazier than the fourth-and-10 fake from his own 15 that Florida coach Urban Meyer busted out with his team trailing against Arkansas in the 2006 SEC Championship game -- except that play worked for a first down and led to a touchdown that put the Gators on top for good en route to the national championship. Like they say: If it works, you're a genius. (And in this case, a filthy rich genius. It was worth a shot, Coach Tom.)

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146 Comments

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  1. CalebL
    1. Posted by CalebL Sat Nov 21, 2009 10:49 pm EST

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    yale...
  2. Kb
    2. Posted by Kb Sat Nov 21, 2009 11:07 pm EST

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    yawn...
  3. CARL
    3. Posted by CARL Sat Nov 21, 2009 11:11 pm EST

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    Man, 22 very intelligent young men on a football field at one time---no, I'm not talking about a Big XII game.
  4. mangere_bridge
    4. Posted by mangere_bridge Sun Nov 22, 2009 12:01 am EST

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    For those of us who don't bring a spreadsheet of win probabilities to games, a rule of thumb might be that if you have a better than 50% chance of converting your wacky play, go for it. (I think this is robust across most field positions, but not necessarily the scores on the board.) Teams usually don't convert 4th-and-10, but with the element of surprise on his size, Meyer could at least plausibly assert he had a better than even chance of making it. 4th-and-22, surprise schmurprise, you can't make that argument.
  5. Justin S
    5. Posted by Justin S Sun Nov 22, 2009 12:04 am EST

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    Rutgers and Princeton have been playing way longer than these pikers.
  6. John
    6. Posted by John Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:12 am EST

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    why.......
  7. bobby
    7. Posted by bobby Sun Nov 22, 2009 5:55 am EST

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    is he an alumi if so how lol
  8. Daniel D
    8. Posted by Daniel D Sun Nov 22, 2009 10:38 am EST

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    fight fiercely, Harvard, fight boys, fight
    Throw that spheroid down the field
    and Fight!
    (with absolutely no apologies to Tom Lehrer)
  9. Daniel
    9. Posted by Daniel Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:10 pm EST

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    Matt, you sound like you have baggage talking about these Yale and Harvard boys. Did you go to Cornell or something? :)
  10. DaveS
    10. Posted by DaveS Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:14 pm EST

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    Re: Freshies... They don't play varsity in the Ivy League, so as to prepare for the rigors of balancing academics and varsity athletics in future years. Well, that's their story and they're stickin' to it, anyway. Daniel D., put that on my tab. Nicely done.
  11. Derick
    11. Posted by Derick Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:15 pm EST

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    Mr Hinton,
    Regarding Urban Meyer's decision to go for it in the SEC Championship....UF converted the beautiful fake but did not score on that drive. We actually burned all our TO's on that drive then punted (which I thought was crazy) but a beautiful kick by Eric Wilbur was fumbled by I think Monk from Arky and recovered by Wondy Pierre-Louis in the end zone for the TD and a lead which the Gators never relented. So I guess you could say it led to a TD but that's a stretch. Ahh, the memories.
  12. s e
    12. Posted by s e Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:16 pm EST

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    Playing scared or playing stupid is pretty much the same. Good luck coach on getting a real college football job.
  13. Claydo
    13. Posted by Claydo Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:18 pm EST

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    Perhaps it's time to resurrect SNL's "Bad Idea Jeans" (er, Dockers).
    "On you Bulldogs, Fake! Punt! Lose!'
  14. toadj
    14. Posted by toadj Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:19 pm EST

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    I'm pretty sure that is the worst call I have ever seen. He wanted to keep his foot on the pedal? Not play scared? That was just downright STUPID. He should be canned. Even a 3rd grader playing a video game would not make that call. Is that guy a Yale Alumni? If he his, he should have taken a class in common sense with a dose of reality.
  15. jimmy c
    15. Posted by jimmy c Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:19 pm EST

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    nerds shouldnt be allowed to play/coach
  16. Jeremy
    16. Posted by Jeremy Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:21 pm EST

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    There is no excuse for this. Belichick made the correct choice if you go by the cold percentages, but even beyond that Manning was catching fire in the 4th quarter and likely would of driven down to the red zone anyways even if they had punted. This coach has nothing like that the fall back on. Yale had scored one touchdown the entire game, it's not like they were on fire and likely to convert. I just don't understand how he could of made this choice and I would be ashamed of myself if I were him.
  17. mikey p
    17. Posted by mikey p Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:22 pm EST

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    yo
  18. mikey p
    18. Posted by mikey p Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:22 pm EST

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    ooha ooha
  19. mikey p
    19. Posted by mikey p Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:22 pm EST

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    owo oww
  20. Gomez
    20. Posted by Gomez Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:23 pm EST

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    And in Florida's case, plays tend to work regardless of how smart they are when you have the best talent in college football and your 9th stringers can beat the pants off of many teams' 1st stringers. Pretty easy for a play to work when you give the ball to a guy that's bigger, stronger and faster than most of the guys on the other side, and he has several other bigger, faster, stronger guys blocking for him.
  21. Krazyndn69
    21. Posted by Krazyndn69 Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:23 pm EST

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    Was this a high school game?? Because, no one seems to give a [profane] except a few pep clubbers...
  22. Gerard
    22. Posted by Gerard Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:25 pm EST

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    He's one of those vaunted African American coaches they say all college football teams should have. Tom Williams, Tyrone Willingham, Sylvester Croom. You're be lucky to have one of those geniuses helm your school's team.
  23. Chris
    23. Posted by Chris Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:25 pm EST

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    60% of the time that play works every time.
  24. alexander8412
    24. Posted by alexander8412 Sun Nov 22, 2009 1:27 pm EST

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    Derick--It was Reggie Fish who attempted to field the punt over his shoulder inside the five yard line which led to the muff and the Florida TD.

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