Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Since it ascended to the top of the Pac-10 and the national polls in 2003, USC losing is always a big deal: Every one of USC's seven losses since the blockbuster letdown against Texas in the 2006 Rose Bowl has been accompanied by the same round of shock and buzz about the Trojans' pending decline, in large part because so many have been out-of-the-blue upsets. Even without another national championship since 2004, though, SC's fall has always remained speculative -- since 2002, the Trojans have won or shared the Pac-10 championship every year, proceeded to a BCS bowl every year (winning seven out of eight) and finished in the top five of the final polls every year. Even with the occasional stumble against an obviously inferior team, USC has remained the definition of a dynasty for nearly the entire decade.

Barring a procession of events too improbable to contemplate, Saturday night's humiliating collapse at Oregon was the end of that run, at least for a year. For the first time since '02, the Trojans will not be Pac-10 champs: At 5-0 in conference play, the Ducks are two games in front of both USC and Cal, and hold tiebreaker advantages after blowing out both. With a crowded field at the top of the BCS pool, the odds are now against SC sneaking into a BCS bowl even if it runs the table over the next month, and it may be lucky to crack the top 10 again, much less the top five.

The judgment of standings and polls is sobering enough. But the really damning reality of waking up on the wrong end of a 47-20 rout isn't in the external judgments or postseason projections; it's in the fact that Trojans were whipped -- not just defeated on the scoreboard, but truly dominated and beaten in every aspect of the game. The consequences of falling behind in the standings barely compute compared to all the ways USC came up woefully short of any of its Carroll-era predecessors on the field:

Points allowed. Forty-seven points is the most SC has given up under Carroll, and only the third time it had allowed 40-plus in one game (Fresno State scored 42 and Texas put up 41 in a three-game span in 2005). Before last week's collapse against Oregon State, the Trojans were still on a 30-game streak without allowing 30 points; they'd only allowed 43 points in their first five games this year -- including wins over Ohio State and Cal -- combined.

Margin of victory. The 27-point beating was by far the worst the Trojans have endured under Carroll, more than twice as bad as the previous worst, an 11-point loss to Notre Dame in 2001, the last loss in a 2-5 start in Carroll's first season. But that doesn't quite cover the magnitude of a four-touchdown pounding: That loss in South Bend is the only defeat in the Carroll era by more than a touchdown, and none of the Trojans' 11 losses between that game and Saturday night were decided before the final two minutes.

So this is the real "king is dead" statistic of the night: The Ducks' 27-point margin was one more than the margins of all seven of USC's losses since 2004 combined.

Rushing yards. The Ducks' 391 rushing yards was more than 100 yards better than the previous high against a Carroll D, making the 289-yard rushing bomb Vince Young and Co. dropped on the Trojans in the '06 Rose Bowl look like a mere mortar to Oregon's tactical nuke. Jeremiah Masoli's 48-yard gallop in the second quarter is the longest run the Trojans have allowed in two years, and the Ducks broke more runs of 20 yards or longer (7) than SC had allowed in its first six games combined (4). No Carroll defense since at least 2005 had allowed more than eight 20-yard runs in an entire season.

Total yards. The Ducks' 613 total yards was the first 600-yard effort against the Trojans under Carroll, and only the second 500-yard effort, again putting Texas' 556-yard explosion in the '06 Rose Bowl to shame. Excluding the Longhorns, it was the first time USC had given up more than 400 yards in a loss since falling in overtime at Cal in 2003.

Turnover margin. It was the first game the Trojans have lost without finishing in the red in turnover margin since 2006, when they were even with one turnover apiece in a 13-9 loss to UCLA. In its other five losses over the last five years, USC has always aided the cause by shooting itself in the foot, finishing –4 against Oregon State (2006); –4 against Stanford (2007); –1 against Oregon (2007); –2 against Oregon State (2008); and –3 against Washington earlier this year. As a general rule, USC doesn't lose when it doesn't turn the ball over, but the Trojans didn't give the ball away once in Eugene until a meaningless interception on the final snap of the game.

The fact is that Oregon made USC look like Washington State, which did about as good a job of corralling the Duck offense last month. This was the Duck team we saw at the end of last year, when they scored at least 35 points, went over 450 total yards and averaged more than seven yards per play in every game of a four-game winning streak to close the season, and that we roughly expected at the start of this year, instead of the inept nightmare we got in Boise on opening night. These are the Ducks that were steaming toward the Pac-10 championship and a likely national title shot after beating the Trojans in 2007 before an ACL injury to prolific quarterback Dennis Dixon submarined the season and left the crown for USC to assume again. Three years in a row now, we've seen Chip Kelly's spread option offense at its nightmarish pinnacle for short stretches, and it firmly established itself as the dominant entity the conference Saturday night.

But clearly these are not the same Trojans, and it seems impossible to imagine going on pretending that they are. USC has enough talent to rebound and finish this season in dominating reminiscent of its recent, dominating past, and to come back strong enough to reassume its West Coast crown again next year. But the assumption is gone, the aura totally obliterated by a stumpy JUCO transfer with a somewhat suspect arm. If USC is going to be considered the unquestioned Pac-10 overlord again, its going to have to earn it back by consistently performing like the old USC again, and that standard is no longer within reach in 2009.

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57 Comments

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  1. Jason
    1. Posted by Jason Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:26 pm EST

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    Stumpy? I think the preferred adjective is "a little bit thick," or "low center of gravity."
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eauRx_BjTFA
  2. Youcef
    2. Posted by Youcef Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:28 pm EST

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    Finally, a little parity is always good for the conference. Otherwise we would be like the WAC, one giant and nine minions. Next year should be a great year with lots of young players, and USC, Cal, Oregon, and maybe the Arizonas will battle it out. I'm ready!
  3. Paul B
    3. Posted by Paul B Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:33 pm EST

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    USC sucks, Oregon showed that Saturday, but they have sucked the last 6 years over hyped by the media that so desperatley wants USC to be in the BCS because of the big media market they play in. Same goes for Noter Dum and Ohio.
  4. Jason
    4. Posted by Jason Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:44 pm EST

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    Paul B - if USC sucks so bad, why has no non-conference team been able to beat them since 2005?
  5. Paul B
    5. Posted by Paul B Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:48 pm EST

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    Because they play ohio state and noter dum, they suck worse than usc
  6. Jason
    6. Posted by Jason Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:04 pm EST

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    2009: Ohio State, Notre Dame, San Jose State
    2008: Ohio State, Notre Dame, Virginia, Penn State (Rose Bowl)
    2007: Idaho, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Illinois (Rose Bowl)
    2006: Arkansas, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Michigan (Rose Bowl)
    2005: Hawaii, Arkansas, Notre Dame, Fresno State, Texas (Rose Bowl - National Championship)
    What really sucks here is your reasoning skills.
  7. richard s
    7. Posted by richard s Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:11 pm EST

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    Paul b. #3- your name-calling is an indication of your shadownness in your thought and ideas!
    is that representative of all people who live in oregon---- that they can not accept victory
    with class and dignity?
  8. Jacob
    8. Posted by Jacob Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:32 pm EST

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    I hate USC, and I love seeing them lose. But I can surely admit that the only reason I hate them is because they're so darn good. If not for that, they're just another team. USC is dominant in terms of the Pac-10, and always routes their bowl opponents (unless they're edged out by Texas). But now, I wonder what will happen. I have a feeling USC will regain their strength under Pete Carroll. This year's team is very young, and is really missing a great QB who left last year. USC will reload, but I still hope they keep losing!
  9. Jacob
    9. Posted by Jacob Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:55 pm EST

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    Masoli was a 1 star recruit at scout.com, and a zero star recruit at rivals.com. I think they got that kinda wrong.
    http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=8&c=1&nid=3812705
    http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Jeremiah-Masoli-71217
    I really like looking at the big starts of today, and seeing where they were, ranking-wise. Other big names:
    Ricki Stanzi, three/two stars:
    http://fe1.rivals.sports.ac4.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Rick-Stanzi-41594
    http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=8&c=1&nid=1929579
    Ndamukong Suh, four stars:
    http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Ndamukong-Suh-28552
    http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=8&c=1&nid=1178307
    Colt McCoy, three/four stars:
    http://fe1.rivals.sports.ac4.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Colt-McCoy-22880
    http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=8&c=1&nid=1126801
    Taylor Mays, five/five stars
    http://fe1.rivals.sports.ac4.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Taylor-Mays-29974
    http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=8&toinid=736&sspid=-1&yr=2006
  10. Paul B
    10. Posted by Paul B Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:01 pm EST

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    Richard s your assumption that I am from Oregon is an indication of your own shadowness in your thoughts and ideas. And sir I do belieave it is the USC fans that can not except a LOSS with class and dignity.
  11. johncharles67
    11. Posted by johncharles67 Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:05 pm EST

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    anyone who says usc sucks,probably has a jealousy problem, I dont like them,or their coach,but they are still one of the top ten programs in the nation,and have been for the past decade. If you are a duck fan,you should be proud of their great win over USC, but you better enjoy it,cause I doubt it will happen again in the next 2or3 years.
  12. Paul B
    12. Posted by Paul B Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:14 pm EST

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    Jacob I hate USC just as much when they are losing as i do when they are winning. Will they be back? sure , but as long as the media keeps ranking them in the top five year after year and they play in a sub standard conf, they will never compete with the Floridas and Long Horns. USC believes thier own hype about how good they are and it comes back to bite them year after year and i think it is funny, and i hope they never figure it out because they do have the physical talent to compete.
  13. mangere_bridge
    13. Posted by mangere_bridge Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:19 pm EST

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    Not sure why you don't think USC will get a BCS bowl invite if they win out. One at-large slot for TCU, one for the Florida-Alabama loser, one for the Big Ten runner-up. The ACC won't get a second slot; the Big 12 probably won't either, unless Texas pulls an Oklahoma '03. The Big East might if Cincinnati chokes at Pitt, but then the computers will hate the Bearcats. Notre Dame might get priority if they win out, but I'll believe that when I see it. That leaves Boise State vs USC for the tenth slot. If money talks, the Broncos will be livid, and for good reason.
  14. Millerman
    14. Posted by Millerman Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:20 pm EST

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    Still don't understand it - once again a pac 10 school jumps into the the top seven spot, leaping two good schools like Iowa and LSU. What did they do. Oregan has lost to Boise State (14th at the time) and USC has lost to Washington (not ranked at the time). LSU beat Washington (the team that beat USC) and lost one game to Florida (1st ranked all year). Iowa has not lost a game but still plays better talent then Cinn, Boise St, and TCU. Are the AP voters that dumb to make Oregan the best one lose team in the top ten and USC the best two lose team in the top fifteen, or once again the west coast AP is trying to push their favorite teams to the top. Someone write a story about that. Buck the system and stand up for the the teams that always get rear-ended for playing good teams year in and year out. Don't try to come back and talk smack on here unless you have real proof of why these two teams should be above LSU and Iowa.
  15. Paul B
    15. Posted by Paul B Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:27 pm EST

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    Not a Duck fan well except for yesterday anyway. And i guess saying USC sucks is kind of strong sorry. lets just say OVER RATED and no way are they one of the top ten programs in the nation, lets rank the top ten programs
    1. Florida
    2. LSU
    4. Alabama
    5. Texas
    6.Boise St.
    7. Oklahoma
    8.oregon
    9. USC ( well your right sorry )
    10.Georgia
  16. James P
    16. Posted by James P Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:28 pm EST

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    This looked on paper to be USC's weakest team since in almost a decade. Playing a freshman quarterback, losing both offensive and defensive coordinators, and something like 9 starters on defense? What other program would suffer that sort of attrition and not lose a few games? I think it is to Pete's credit that his teams were so good for so long despite the huge target on his back. Other teams would recruit USC commits because they knew if they wanted to beat USC they needed to hamper the recruiting juggernaut. I hate USC, but hey you can't be champion every year.
    The real question is: how good will they look next year when they don't have so many question marks?
  17. DC
    17. Posted by DC Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:48 pm EST

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    Jason,
    I hope you're not claiming any of those as impressive non-conference wins.
    First off, in 2005 Texas beat the supposed greatest team ever. That shouldn't even be on your list.
    Notre Dame? Not nationally relevant anymore. They haven't won a BCS game ever. Before last year, it had been 15 years since a bowl win. How is this a great win?
    Ohio State? The SEC has proved how good the Big Ten is. Those Rose Bowl wins? Mostly against the 2nd place Big Ten team since Ohio State was playing in the national title.
    San Jose State, Idaho, Fresno State, Hawaii.....way to beat up the mighty WAC. How about schedule Boise St?
    That leaves Virgnia, Nebraska, and Arkansas. Enough said.
    USC hasn't really done much out of conference when you actually look at the facts.
    What really sucks here is your reasoning skills.
  18. desert  fox
    18. Posted by desert fox Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:00 pm EST

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    What is going under the radar screen, is Oregan wants to reinstate rb blount, You know the one that sucker punched the Boise player after the game. If he is reinstated it says a whole lot about NCAA sports, and the Oregan college program. Winning is everything and the dollar. Should i be surpised in this day and age.
  19. Jason
    19. Posted by Jason Sun Nov 01, 2009 7:56 pm EST

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    DC - The point that was being proposed upthread was that USC didn't play anybody. However, they do play quality opponents every year. Jeff Sagarin has their strength of schedule as follows:
    2009: 5 (through 10/31)
    2008: 16
    2007: 29
    2006: 2
    2005: 8
    Lets look at a couple out of conference schedules this year:
    Team A: Charleston Southern, Troy, Florida International, Florida State
    Team B: Louisiana-Monroe, @Wyoming, UTEP, UCF
    Tell me again what sucks here? I would say that the Trojan's quality of competition does not. And I am NOT a USC fan.
  20. peteyweestro
    20. Posted by peteyweestro Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:35 pm EST

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    Everyone out here in So Cal knew this was gonna be a rebuilding year with Barkley at the helm and losing the 2 coaches, but my friends enjoy your well earned victories because this SC team will only get better and better yikes!!!
  21. barryy
    21. Posted by barryy Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:36 pm EST

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    know this.......
    We here in the SEC LOVE when we wake up Sunday morning from watching the best in college football play and then hear that USC was destroyed.
    It doesn't get better than that..
    War Eagle!
    BRV
  22. rocklan
    22. Posted by rocklan Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:10 pm EST

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    Hey Millerman, your argument is about as intelligent as your inability to spell !!!! Your clearly an SEC good ol boy that doesn't know any better. Iowa will get destroyed by whoever wins the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl.
  23. Robin Donner
    23. Posted by Robin Donner Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:23 pm EST

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    Richard S
    I would bet that Paul B hails from SEC country not Oregon. We folks in Oregon know how good USC is. USC also has the moxie to schedule good out of conference teams home and away, something recent SEC powers seldom do.
  24. DC
    24. Posted by DC Sun Nov 01, 2009 9:31 pm EST

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    Jason, are those the same people who says Iowa's schedule is supposedly 4th best in the nation? (It was on a college football website as of Saturday).
    Aside from Texas who they lost to...who have they beaten?
    Ohio St who hasn't won the Big Ten this or last year.
    The WAC? If those had been Boise St then I'd change my tune.
    Virginia, Arkansas, Nebraska? Mid pack Big 6ers.
    Notre Dame? Haven't done anything in a long time.
    Michigan and Illinois who finished 2nd in the Big Ten? Penn State was the only one who won the conference championship, but the Big Ten is weak (Again, tell me how Iowa's SOS is so high...).
    USC has built up their aura based off of what? Since 2005 they haven't done anything to really crow about.

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