Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Last week there seven unbeaten teams; this week, despite the best efforts of fate, there are still seven unbeaten teams. And in the face of the harrowing escapes of the last two weeks, the Doc's ever optimistic colleagues at Rivals -- answering today's two-dollar question, "How many teams will finish the regular season unbeaten?" -- don't expect that number to change much between now and December:

 • "Don't be surprised if there are as many as six unbeatens, although I'd anticipate four."

• "I think Alabama, Texas, Iowa, TCU and Boise State will finish the season unbeaten. .... Texas, TCU and Boise State appear to have smooth sailing to an unbeaten record." 

• "I think there will be four. Boise State, to me, is a lock to finish unbeaten. I think TCU will get to 12-0 ... I think Alabama and Florida will be unbeaten headed into the SEC championship game ... Texas' last tough game is Saturday at Oklahoma State; if the Longhorns win that, just pencil them in as national title game participants."

• "I believe there will be four undefeated teams. While Texas, Alabama and Florida have looked vulnerable at times this season, I think all three will be 12-0 by the time they enter their respective conference championship games. ... I also think TCU and Boise State should sail through the rest of their seasons unbeaten now that both already have passed their biggest tests."

To sum up, then, all four of the panelists agree that at least four and as many as six (the maximum possible number, with Florida and Alabama either going head-to-head or losing along the way) of the seven current unbeatens will finish the regular season without a blemish, though at least one ranked opponent remains in front of all seven. If they're right, it will be one of the greatest logjams at the top in recent memory:

Undefeated Regular Seasons in BCS Era (Including conf. championships)
1998: Two (Tennessee, Tulane)
1999: Three (Florida State, Virginia Tech, Marshall)
2000: One (Oklahoma)
2001: One (Miami)
2002: Two (Ohio State, Miami)
2003: Zero
2004: Five (USC, Auburn, Oklahoma, Utah, Boise State)
2005: Two (Texas, USC)
2006: Two (Ohio State, Boise State)
2007: One (Hawaii)
2008: Two (Utah, Boise State)

Aside from the sublime insanity of 2004 -- the year that will ultimately have as much to do with the BCS' eventual downfall or evolution as any other -- the emphatic lesson of the last decade has been "Don't count your undefeated chickens before they hatch." In the last five years alone, as ESPN's Pat Forde pointed out on Tuesday, November bloodletting has been the rule: Miami (2004), Wisconsin (2004), Virginia Tech (2005), UCLA (2005), Alabama (2005), West Virginia (2006), Louisville (2006), Rutgers (2006), Michigan (2006), Boston College (2007), Arizona State (2007), Ohio State (2007), Kansas (2007), Tulsa (2008), Texas (2008), Penn State (2008), Texas Tech (2008), Ball State (2008) and Alabama (2008) all lost undefeated seasons after Oct. 30, half of them going down as a substantial favorite. And that doesn't include the litany of stunning flops by one-loss teams (Texas, Auburn, USC, Oregon, LSU, West Virginia, Missouri, et al) also presumed to be streaking toward a championship date down the stretch before stubbing their toe. (Or, in Oregon's case, tearing their ACL.)

This time last year, there were eight undefeated teams; only two made it to the bowl games unscathed, and neither played for (nor was seriously considered for) the mythical championship. Skin-of-the-teeth escapes the last two weeks by Florida, Alabama and Iowa should be a sign of just how indifferent the stretch run is going to be to the current status quo. My guess is three teams make it out unscathed, max, and that's the liberal estimate.

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4 Comments

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  1. kass0809@...
    1. Posted by kass0809@... Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:25 pm EDT

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    I agree, like clockwork, once we are in CF's midseason, writers always overestimate the no. of undefeated teams but at the end of the season, the argument is which are a best 1 or 2 loss teams.
  2. CuseFanInSoCal
    2. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:35 pm EDT

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    ... which is the main reason why I've argued that if Cinci and/or Iowa do survive unbeaten, it's likely they will get to play for all the marbles. Sure, it may seem unlikely that Texas and/or the SEC champion will slip up in any individual game, but the odds are they will in one of the next five.
  3. genius_man16
    3. Posted by genius_man16 Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:30 pm EDT

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    "though at least one ranked opponent remains in front of all seven."
    uh, what ranked team is Boise facing exactly?
  4. genius_man16
    4. Posted by genius_man16 Thu Oct 29, 2009 5:31 pm EDT

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    "though at least one ranked opponent remains in front of all seven."
    uh, what ranked team is Boise facing exactly?

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