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Dr. Saturday

Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:42 pm EDT

What's with the BCS computers' over-the-top Hawkeye love?

By Matt Hinton

The fundamental disconnect within the BCS from the beginning has been the supposed gulf between the cold, calculating computer polls and the blindly sentimental human voters. But never has the chasm been wider between the outlook of man and machine than in the current edition of the standings, where Iowa -- languishing at No. 8 in both the Harris and Coaches' polls, well behind one-loss USC and still far out of serious championship contention -- holds the No. 1 spot in the computer consensus, putting the Hawkeyes in the driver's seat for the time being if they keep winning and two of the "Big Three," Florida, Alabama and Texas, should stumble down the stretch.

And not only are the Hawkeyes No. 1 in the computer aggregate -- they're No. 1 in all but one of the six individual computer polls (the dissenting numbers belong to Richard Billingsley's poll, always an outlier among the computers because it's specifically designed to flout the notion of an objective poll in the first place) despite earning zero first-place votes in the AP or Coaches' polls, and only one in the Harris poll. How can that happen?

• The computers are way more impressed with Iowa's schedule. I'm not sure that very many human pollsters have a very deep appreciation of the Hawkeyes' non-conference victories over Arizona and Iowa State, and are perhaps less inclined to extend much goodwill toward the Big Ten in general. The computers, though, see things a little differently: Arizona is a favorite among the machines, ranking in the top 16 of every computer poll (again, except Billingsley's, where it's No. 31), and with Iowa State's upset of Nebraska Saturday to move to 5-3 on the year, four quality victims in the Big Ten is more than enough to push the Hawkeyes' schedules to the top. Among the four computer polls that publish strength of schedule rankings (Jeff Sagarin, Anderson and Hester, the Colley Matrix and Kenneth Massey), it's not that close:

To some extent, it's a matter of quantity over quality: Of the three polls that specify a "quality win" component, Iowa comes out the best in two of them. The Hawkeyes have more wins over top 25 teams (three: Penn State, Arizona and Wisconsin) than any other team according to both the Colley Matrix and Anderson and Hester, and also has the most top-50 wins (five) according to Colley. But in terms of quality, Florida and Alabama's headline wins over LSU and Virginia Tech don't rank as much better than Iowa's win over Penn State.

• The computers can't be 'unimpressed' by a win. Twice already, the Hawkeyes have had to pull relatively ignominious victory from defeat, with wildly improbable endings to beat both Northern Iowa and Michigan State on the final snap of the game:

Add to that the too-close-for-comfort escape against Arkansas State, which the Red Wolves had a chance to win on the final play, and the Hawkeyes' wins over the three non-winning teams on the schedule have come by a combined six points. For the season, Iowa is outscoring all opponents by less than nine points per game and has only hit 30 points twice; the other undefeated teams are all outscoring opponents by more than 20 points per game.

That's all irrelevant to the machines, which don't take margin of victory into account, and subsequently count a 24-21 win over Arkansas State as roughly the equivalent of a 59-20 win over Louisiana-Monroe; two-point wins over Michigan and Michigan State are approximately the same as double-digit wins over Texas Tech and Missouri. The computers acknowledge no "style points."

• It depends which computers you ask. Along the same lines, to say "Iowa is No. 1 according to the computers" is a little misleading, since it's more accurate to say that "Iowa is No. 1 according to the computers as manipulated by BCS politics," with the prohibition on margin of victory standing as Exhibit A. Computers can only make judgments based on the information humans choose to give them, and restricting a key piece of information totally changes the results -- for example, both Jeff Sagarin and Kenneth Massey publish their "real" rankings, the set they've developed and honed for years and prefer to use before adjusting the data to meet BCS stipulations, and Iowa isn't No. 1 in either of them. It's not even close, actually, coming at No. 4 in Sagarin's poll (and all the way down at No. 12 in his "Predictor" rating for gamblers) and a humble No. 7 in the estimation of Massey's numbers.

So if you're somewhat baffled by the digital love for the Hawkeyes, don't blame the computers -- blame the feeble human minds behind the system that doesn't trust the machines enough to let them use all the relevant information.

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  1. ess-eee-seee
    1. Posted by ess-eee-seee Tue Oct 27, 2009 3:28 pm EDT

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    After following the link to MGoBlog, it ticks me off that Billingsley has any part of the BCS. He's reverse engineering his "computer ranking" to generate results that closely mimic his personal rankings from 1 to 117. People that know a lot more about CFB than Richard Billingsley would not presume to claim they know which team is exactly 73rd in the nation at any point in the season, let alone before a single game has been played.
  2. Jake
    2. Posted by Jake Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:13 pm EDT

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    "despite earning exactly zero first-place votes in either of the BCS' human polls"
    Actually Iowa received a first place vote in the Harris Poll.
  3. James
    3. Posted by James Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:43 pm EDT

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    I'm not sure why you keep saying Iowa needs Texas to lose. If Bama/UF, Texas, and Iowa all win out, I think it's more likely to be SEC vs Iowa for the national championship. The voters will rank them Bama/UF, Texas, Iowa and the computers Iowa, Bama/UF, Texas. Enough Big Ten coaches will put Iowa above Texas (or #1) that when all the decimals are crunched, the Hawkeyes will be #2 in the BCS.
    Even if Billingsley ranks them differently, his computer would be one of the two getting dropped for each team.
    Nov 14 will be the first time in a while I've rooted for the Buckeyes...
  4. LongTrans
    4. Posted by LongTrans Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:45 pm EDT

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    Maybe Iowa will get a good opponent in a bowl game, but I don't see them in the NC. If they get a good opponent, (and I'm not talking a choker team), it will be interesting to see how they perform. I just don't see them beating a USC, LSU, i.e. powerhouse football teams.
  5. Matt H
    5. Posted by Matt H Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:51 pm EDT

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    That changes everything, Jake. Corrected.
  6. M
    6. Posted by M Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:13 pm EDT

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    LSU and power house don't belong together this year.
  7. GameDay
    7. Posted by GameDay Tue Oct 27, 2009 5:28 pm EDT

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    I'd like to just put to rest this fallacy that computers are somehow different from humans. Of course, they clearly are, but not for the reasons most people seem to castigate them for. I guess I take issue with characterizing the computer polls as "cold, calculating". Why? Because *somebody* decided that formula there were programmed with. That formula reflects *some* human's viewpoint.
    The computers will rank the teams however they are programmed to. *Somebody* thought it was the right thing to *not* take into account margin of victory (for various reasons, good and bad). The current rankings reflect that view. Most pollsters, most people, for that matter, continue to take into account margin of victory - really, it's almost impossible not to. This almost ensures that there will a discrepancy between what most people believe the rankings should be and what the BCS rankings are. However, the computers are simply reflecting the viewpoint of some human (however much in the minority they may be).
    I see what you're trying to say, and agree with it for the most part. Pollsters and voters *want* to factor in the quality of the opponent as opposed to a straight-up win/loss record. However, not being able to maintain a current and accurate database in their heads of current win-loss records of all of the opponents' opponents is limiting. Or perhaps only given lip-service to ("The big 10 sucketh, so their victories count for less"). But while some people unquestionably have certain fixed views not based on reality here, there are *certainly* some people who *want* to achieve an objective calculation of strength of schedule. Just because they can't keep it in their head doesn't mean that's not the answer they were looking for. That particular human opinion is what's currently adopted in the BCS formula.
    So yes, machines do it better. What's my point? That while computers may be able to do it differently, they nevertheless reflect a *particular* human viewpoint. i.e. it's not a human vs computer thing. It's really a some humans vs other humans thing. Whether that's a few people vs many thousands is besides the point.
    This in no way contradicts anything you've said - in fact, your explanation of what's happening here merely illustrates my point.
  8. BigHoss
    8. Posted by BigHoss Tue Oct 27, 2009 8:50 pm EDT

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    If Iowa plays in the national championship, I'm quitting college football.
  9. BrnxBmbr
    9. Posted by BrnxBmbr Tue Oct 27, 2009 10:51 pm EDT

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    What difference is it with Iowa getting first place votes and UF ranked #1? What has UF done? They have a shadow of last years Heisman QB, their top 2, actually their only playmakers from last season gone, and a good defense. UF & Texas have played teams with a combined 26-24 record... and Bama 28-29 record.... hardly anything to get excited about. At least Texas has somewhat covered the spread in most of their games. UF? Not even close, even with the help of all the questionable, actually the wrong calls, that went their way. And Bama... they haven't looked like a #1 team either. I mean, unless there is something about Tennessee no one else knows. Point of the matter is, there is no clear cut favorite. UF is getting the votes still based on last season. The rest? Well they're getting their votes based on preseason rankings. You take away preseason rankings and wait until week 5 to start ranking teams and I gaurantee the top 10 looks a whole lot different now. I would award a team like Miami who lost a game or two, but at least played top teams over a school like UF who scheduled (and yes I know, schedules are made years in advance but those teams always suck) cupcakes to play it safe. Same with Bama and Texas.
    So do we want a playoff system? I think this is a prime example of why we need one. Stop the teams from playing those first 2 b.s. games and start the playoffs in week 10. Make every conference play a conference championship. Choose from those conference championship teams, picking out of a hat for 1st round matchups. Go from there. Make the "final 4" the Rose, Orange, Sugar and Fiesta bowls. Play the championship game in the most neutral site possible, decided after the final 4. It could all happen. But the NCAA would have to put their priorities in order. Then and only then, we would have found out who the best team is. There would be no more excuses of patsy schedules, weak or non-weak conferences. Everything would be proven out on the field.
  10. Tyler
    10. Posted by Tyler Tue Oct 27, 2009 10:58 pm EDT

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    I’ll start off by admitting I’m a diehard Hawkeye, but I can look at this objectively unlike all of you who have boners for Texas, Florida and USC. Right now, no I don’t believe Iowa should be ranked #1 in the BCS poll (which it isn’t), but I also don’t believe it deserves to be #8 in the coaches poll either (which it is). I think we should be #4 behind Florida, Texas and Alabama in all polls. And if Iowa is the only one of these four teams, or one of two of these teams who finishes undefeated they will have earned their spot to play for the championship. Here is my case:
    1. Iowa vs UNI. Yeah, we blocked two field goals to win this game, but UNI isn’t a joke. They are one of the best teams in the championship subdivision and would be a top 40 team if they played in the bowl subdivision. This is also an intrastate game and UNI’s chance to knockoff a bowl subdivision team, so you can guarantee that UNI went into this game as if it was a bowl game for them, while Iowa was already planning how to beat #5 Penn St. I forgot, didn’t Alabama have two block to field goals to win their game?
    2. Iowa vs Iowa State. Another intrastate game where our opponent was looking at this as a bowl game. Iowa State is also a solid team who will go to a bowl game this year and may finish in the top 25.
    3. Iowa vs Arizona. Top 25 team, and solid win.
    4. Penn St. A night game at Happy Valley. A lot more of an impressive win against a more impressive opponent than Oklahoma on neutral ground and just as impressive as a win at LSU.
    5. Wisconsin, Michigan St, Michigan. Although they are not top ten teams all 3 are flirting around 25 status and it just goes to show Iowa can consistently win against solid opponents especial when two of the three are away and you combine it with the Penn St win. This is a better gauge of a team than Florida or Texas beating up a bunch of crappy teams and only having to prepare for 2 or 3 challenges a season.
    6. Last minute scoring drive vs Michigan St. Why would you think this is a negative? What about the poise it takes to have a scoring drive like that? Most teams would choke. Its called digging deep to win.
    7. If you want to call some of Iowa’s wins unimpressive, other teams have unimpressive wins by the same standard. Alabama had to block a last minute field goal to win. Florida may have lost last week if the refs could have gotten the call right, not to mention Florida’s close call against Arkansas.
    8. Iowa has class. We don’t play to run up the score board, we play to win. We know margin of victory doesn’t matter so we design our game plan around winning consistently, not being flashy. Don’t hate the player (coach), hate the game (computer rankings).
    Like I said, Iowa shouldn’t be #1, not yet anyways. But before you hate a team you don’t know anything about, take time to understand the facts.
  11. Gary
    11. Posted by Gary Wed Oct 28, 2009 1:13 am EDT

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    I, too am a Hawkeye fan, living in Iowa City, but I've lived in other parts of the country and graduated from University of Hawaii---back when they were still the RAINBOW Warriors.....Obviously, there is no way to judge which team is better than another team unless they play each other, but it's fun to speculate. My speculation is that USC is the best team in the country. They lost one game--on the road--when their starting qb was out. They play NO patsies. They never schedule them for their optional non-conference games. Florida and Alabama each play 3 non-conference cupcakes. (but they each scheduled a potential top-10 team, Florida St. and Virginia Tech). Texas plays 4 pretty soft teams. Iowa played a traditional I-AA in-state power, Northern Iowa, one cupcake, Ark. St.( who almost beat us!) one team we play every year--and it's almost always competitive--Iowa State, and one very good PAC-10 team, Arizona. Boise gets props for playing Oregon, but it's in a weak conference(but who knows--look what they did to Oklahoma in the bowl game). Cincinnati played only one cupcake (but will lose at Pitt), TCU beat Clemson on the road and will play Utah, but otherwise seems to have a soft schedule---but, again, who knows how good their conference really is?? And LSU might beat Alabama and then Florida in a rematch. Then we'd have to channel that ol' network football announcer and yell "Whoa , Nelly" !
  12. Gary
    12. Posted by Gary Wed Oct 28, 2009 1:23 am EDT

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    I, too am a Hawkeye fan, living in Iowa City, but I've lived in other parts of the country and graduated from University of Hawaii---back when they were still the RAINBOW Warriors.....Obviously, there is no way to judge which team is better than another team unless they play each other, but it's fun to speculate. My speculation is that USC is the best team in the country. They lost one game--on the road--when their starting qb was out. They play NO patsies. They never schedule them for their optional non-conference games. Florida and Alabama each play 3 non-conference cupcakes. (but they each scheduled a potential top-10 team, Florida St. and Virginia Tech). Texas plays 4 pretty soft teams. Iowa played a traditional I-AA in-state power, Northern Iowa, one cupcake, Ark. St.( who almost beat us!) one team we play every year--and it's almost always competitive--Iowa State, and one very good PAC-10 team, Arizona. Boise gets props for playing Oregon, but it's in a weak conference(but who knows--look what they did to Oklahoma in the bowl game). Cincinnati played only one cupcake (but will lose at Pitt), TCU beat Clemson on the road and will play Utah, but otherwise seems to have a soft schedule---but, again, who knows how good their conference really is?? And LSU might beat Alabama and then Florida in a rematch. Then we'd have to channel that ol' network football announcer Keith Jackson and yell "Whoa , Nelly" !
  13. festdir
    13. Posted by festdir Wed Oct 28, 2009 6:04 am EDT

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    #8 If you would quit college football because a team WINS close, using special teams and defense, you should have quit years ago, and multiple times....only the most recent of which was in 2002, Ohio State. I would call 14-0 Ohio State, far more of a Champion, than a 2 loss LSU in 07-08. (seeing as how a NY Giant wild card team beat a previously undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl...looks like the NFL is out for you as well) By all credible and accepted standards (win/loss records of opponents-rankings of opponents-home vs. away) Iowa has played, by far the toughest schedule in the top 10, and is undefeated....what your (or Matt Hinton's for that matter) 'feelings' tell you mean exactly nothing to nobody. Until games are decided in a different matter than which team has the most points when the clock reads 00:00, and until WINNERS are decided in a different matter than if they WIN, I am afraid you have no legs to stand on. Perhaps you should switch to Figure Skating, or synchronized swimming.....after all, those are both totally decided by peoples opinions of how 'good' or 'bad' they are with absolutely none of this WINNING boulder-dash to drag you down.
  14. Nic
    14. Posted by Nic Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:13 am EDT

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    Who cares if they win ugly, they WIN!
    If winning pretty was a requirement of a champion, then we should strip the Ravens of their Super Bowl.
    Iowa is an unbeaten team in a BCS conference, and probably the third best conference behind the Big 12 and the SEC, and their rating shows it. They are behind the unbeatens from those two conferences.
    And as far as how they'll play against a team in a BCS bowl, Iowa has a history of beating teams they "shouldn't" in bowls. LSU in the Captiol one and Florida as an example. Kirk Ferentz finds ways to get more out of his players than anyone else in college football, and I feel confident Iowa can do just fine against anyone in the country.
  15. Barry Zuckerkorn
    15. Posted by Barry Zuckerkorn Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:34 am EDT

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    @ James: I'm not so sure I agree with your notion that Iowa would end up ranked above Texas due to more Big 10 coaches and other voters choosing them (Iowa) over Texas. That argument is moot if you factor in Big 12 coaches voting for Texas.
    Also, Iowa plays their last game of the season on 11/21 against Minnesota. Texas plays Kansas that same day. Five days later (Thanksgiving Day) Texas plays Texas A&M, this game will most likely be nationally televised on ESPN, this national exposure will only help Texas gain votes. After that… Texas (if they run the table and win the Big 12 South) would have to play in the Big 12 Conference Championship game on 12/5. This game without question will be nationally televised. The biggest factor here is that regardless of who wins the Big 12 North, Texas will most likely slaughter them. So that would be TWO nationally televised games for Texas against teams they would most likely beat by a large margin. During this same time Iowa will have been sitting idle due to the Big 10 not playing past Thanksgiving (until bowl season of course). The computers may not acknowledge margin of victory or "style points", but I tend to believe human voters would. Texas has been hyped since the end of last season with the return of Colt McCoy and the way the Big 12 South played out in 2008, while Iowa has been somewhat of a surprise in ‘09. In my opinion, the human vote would/will continue to sway toward Texas over Iowa.
  16. ConnGator
    16. Posted by ConnGator Wed Oct 28, 2009 8:42 am EDT

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    #9, Florida has traditionally had one of the toughest schedules in the nation. The SEC schedule is fixed, and we play FSU every year. Many years we play another good BCS game (Miami last year, USF next year). That Tennessee and Georgia are down this year is not the Gators fault.
    As to what they have done, check out the defense. The sum total of Florida's problems come down to red-zone miscues. Fix those, and the Gators will beat anyone in the nation.
  17. Tyler
    17. Posted by Tyler Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:59 am EDT

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    Rankings aren't about predicting who can beat who the coming Saturday, it’s about judging them on what they have done. What USC has done is lost a game, and no way should they be ahead of any unbeaten team. (You want to talk about ugly wins, what about Notre Dame)
    How would your rank Texas if Shipley and McCoy were out for the first 4 games of the season and subsequently Texas started 0-4. Then Texas finished the season 9-4 after getting them back? Would you rank them #1 or #2 because they are the best team after they have all of their players? Don’t worry it’s a rhetorical question. Its favoritism and bias to judge a team based on what you think they can accomplish regardless of what they have, and that has no place in the polls. Once you lose a game, that’s it.
  18. James
    18. Posted by James Wed Oct 28, 2009 10:38 am EDT

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    @ Barry - True about Big 12 Coaches, but that actually doesn't negate my point. The BCS uses exact values for the Harris and Coaches polls - ie, if Florida receives 63 of the 65 first place votes from the coaches, they will be #1.03 in the formula.
    So let's say the Big Ten Coaches rank the teams Iowa, UF, Texas. The Big 12 coaches rank Texas, UF, Iowa. Everyone else ranks UF, Texas, Iowa.
    Texas is 1 point ahead of Iowa on each of the "neutral" ballots. The Big Ten and Big 12 coaches are a wash, so the teams are even on that part of the slate. The result is less than 1.0 spots difference on average. The Harris poll would probably fall out similarly. Not enough to overcome Iowa likely being +2.0 in the computers.
  19. Festus
    19. Posted by Festus Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:46 am EDT

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    @#16: "Florida has traditionally had one of the toughest schedules in the nation." This is simply not true, if you take each game on the schedule seriously. Scheduling multiple cupcakes should automatically disqualify teams like Florida from serious consideration for BCS bowls. That is, after all, the idea behind the weak effort to make wins over I-AA teams worth less than a full win. Props to Florida for playing in a good conference. Major demerits for puffing up the schedule with multiple meaningless wins.
  20. Festus
    20. Posted by Festus Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:54 am EDT

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    And #16--Nothing personal. Florida is no worse than every other top SEC team. They all schedule three total patsies to pad their stats. Teams like Boise State also schedule very weak out of conference opponents. (Though I am sympathetic to Boise's complaint--also documented for Fresno State--that they have been turned down year after year by Big 12, Big 10, SEC and other scheduling officers.)
  21. Festus
    21. Posted by Festus Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:59 am EDT

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    And finally--weak scheduling is my biggest concern about the proposed college football playoff system. Unless football adopts something like the RPI that college basketball uses to select teams for the March tournament, we are going to see MORE not less abuse of the scheduling system. In a perfect world, we would see every conference behave like the Pacific 10, which forces every team to play every other conference team each season. That is the only way to guarantee a full slate of spirited, meaningful rivalry games. And it helps remind us that conferences matter, and that college football should not be about national championships but about the pageantry and spirit of each week.
  22. Joe
    22. Posted by Joe Wed Oct 28, 2009 1:29 pm EDT

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    "I just don't see them beating a USC, LSU, i.e. powerhouse football teams. "
    Iowa bowl games since 2001
    2001 Alamo Texas Tech 19-16 W
    2002 Orange USC 17-38 L
    2003 Outback Florida 37-17 W
    2004 Capital One LSU 30-25 W
    2005 Outback Florida 24-31 L
    2006 Alamo Texas 24-26 L
    2008 Outback South Carolina 31-10 W
  23. Barry Zuckerkorn
    23. Posted by Barry Zuckerkorn Wed Oct 28, 2009 4:29 pm EDT

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    @ James (#18): I see your point with the calculations and how they would work out, I'm not arguing that. I guess where my disagreement is, is that Iowa would somehow accumulate more votes than Texas should they both finish the 2009 season undefeated. I just don't think it's very likely that Iowa would jump Texas when Texas has been ranked higher the entire season. Obviously, Iowa will have the Strength of Schedule over Texas, but Texas will have played more games (Big 12 Championship Game) and more recent games than Iowa. Again, you make a good point, but I just don't see that really shaking out. For Iowa to jump Texas. The Longhorns will most likely need to lose at some point. (And for the record) I'm not a Iowa hater, or a Texas fan... Your original comment just kinda caught my attention... It'll be damn fun to watch it all play out either way.

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