Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Daily headlines, notes and errata in anticipation of the Intersectional Game of the Decade of the Year.

The Money Never Lies. Some forecasters may be calling for another USC rout -- this does seem to be the default assumption -- but oddsmakers are not among them: The Trojans are opening as roughly 6.5 to 7-point favorites, more than a field goal below last year's ballooning line as it became increasingly clear Beanie Wells' ailing foot wouldn't allow him to suit up.

Keep in mind for a second, though, what goes into determining that spread: USC is down at least four (and maybe more) projected starters, is starting a true freshman quarterback in his first road game opposite a defense facing its first real test since losing eight draft picks, and is still a touchdown favorite over a completely healthy bunch of Buckeyes. That is some respect. And disrespect.

Mutual Admiration Society. The big difference in this year's game and last year's date in the Coliseum is the evolution of Terrelle Pryor, unsure freshman back-up, to Terrelle Pryor, Terrelle Pryor, a difference that has Pete Carroll waxing rhapsodic on the sophomore and making the nuclear comparison where his defense is concerned:

"He’s a deceptive runner because he’s so tall," Carroll said Sunday of the 6-foot-6 Pryor. "He doesn’t look like he's going that fast because he's a long strider. He's very much like Vince Young in that regard. And guys bounce off him and slip off him all the time." Carroll described Pryor as "un-tackle-able, if that’s a word." ... "Everybody has trouble with them," Carroll said. "I just think it's the hardest thing to defend, a running quarterback."

Carroll would know, of course, having had the still-beating heart of the SC three-peat unceremoniously ripped out by Young in the '06 Rose Bowl. Carroll also emphasized that USC's schemes are "more advanced" since that loss, and that he's learned to "respect the QB position as a threat." That was mostly true last year, when Pryor was thrown to the wolves with basically no chance of challenging the defense downfield, but we'll all see how many tackles that respect is worth when TP is set free Saturday night.

Not to be outdone in humility, Jim Tressel obliged his coachly duties by describing the Trojans as "explosive" and "frightening" -- "[W]hat we'd expect from a Southern California team." Assembled reporters thought, "Duh," but printed it anyway.

They tried to make me go to rehab, I said, "No no no." Injured USC starters Kris O'Dowd and Averell Spicer were back at practice on Monday after sitting out the opener, though they weren't taking hits in a shorts-only workout. Spicer said his ankle was "98 percent," which sounds promising, but O'Dowd's knee injury -- the same injury that kept him out several games as a true freshman in 2007 -- would be well ahead of the initial prognosis if he's able to play Saturday. Both are listed as "probable," and O'Dowd vows he'll be ready to go in the middle of the offensive line.

Tale of the Tape of the Day. The Senator vs. The Humanitarian.

The numbers never lie: The Trojans appear to have the decisive edge on the sideline.

Plausible Scenario of the Day. Terrelle Pryor leads an early touchdown drive and a field goal drive before the half to keep pace in a hard-hitting defensive game in which neither teams seems willing to open things up. USC can't find any consistency on offense but holds on to a narrow lead until the middle of the fourth quarter, when a Matt Barkley interception sets up the Buckeyes' go-ahead touchdown, which becomes the game-winner when the Trojans' last gasp drive comes up short.

digg delicious
more

122 Comments

Post a Comment
  1. Koch-Dogg
    1. Posted by Koch-Dogg Tue Sep 08, 2009 8:05 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Good Read. Vegas wouldn't give free money to gamblers out there. Everybody and their mama's will take USC in 7. Which means when something in Vegas looks like a lock, go the other way.
    This could be like OSU v Texas back when Colt McCoy was a Freshman, he will get hit a few times and Make a Mistake or two. So, this will be a close game, Take OSU and the 7.
  2. Bill
    2. Posted by Bill Tue Sep 08, 2009 8:32 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    SC has not lost a game by more than 7 points in seven years. I might take a chance on the Buckeyes to win but to hell with those 7 points.
  3. BMT
    3. Posted by BMT Tue Sep 08, 2009 8:52 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Pryor showed against Navy that he still relies on his legs more than his arm. And Pryor's arm is not very accurate. USC will force Pryor to use his arm to beat them.
  4. moshepippik
    4. Posted by moshepippik Tue Sep 08, 2009 9:13 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Pryor will be facing linebackers who will not dominate the game like last year's Trojans, but who are much quicker and will thus take much of the run threat away from Pryor. On the other side of the ball, even without Kris O'Doud playing center for USC, this offensive line will absolutely dominate the Buckeye defense and with the slew of outstanding running backs that USC features, it is possible that as many as 3 of them could rush for 100 yards each. It won't matter who plays quarterback for USC. The only merciful thing for the Buckeyes is that the USC running game will consume a lot of the clock and the Trojans will therefore not run up the score. Final score: USC 24 OSU 10
  5. Daniel H
    5. Posted by Daniel H Wed Sep 09, 2009 12:28 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    i hate USC, but I think Ohio State is really overrated so really I don't see this game even being within 7 points. Ohio State struggled with Navy and I know that Navy runs that option offense that can be tricky but if they could only put up 31 against Navy then they might not see the end zone against USC. Personally I hope that USC pounds Ohio State just so we can go ahead and make sure that they don't magically wind up in the National Championship conversation by trading on their name again.
  6. Bill S
    6. Posted by Bill S Wed Sep 09, 2009 8:55 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    "Pryor showed against Navy that he still relies on his legs more than his arm. And Pryor's arm is not very accurate. USC will force Pryor to use his arm to beat them."
    You didn't watch that game, did you BMT? OSU's offense came out passing. Pryor passed 21 times as compared to 6 runs. He was pressured several times where a defender got a hand on him, but couldn't get him down ... and in those situations he slid over, looked downfield, and passed the ball.
  7. mario
    7. Posted by mario Wed Sep 09, 2009 10:35 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    Usc trojans will win easy................sorry maybe next time.
  8. MICHAELANGELO_09
    8. Posted by MICHAELANGELO_09 Wed Sep 09, 2009 10:42 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    Overrated! I'll say it again and again. USC will win big cause this aint the buckeye team of the last 4 years. I will look on with joy as the buckeyes go down in flames on national tv yet again.
  9. brian b
    9. Posted by brian b Wed Sep 09, 2009 10:43 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    i agree with the touchdown and a field goal in the first half for OSU. The Trojans will be up 17-10 at half time. stefan will score a TD on the trojans first drive of the second half and OSU will score a field goal on their second due to a long run by Pryor who will almost take it to the house but get brought down within the 10. From there, a Barkley pass TD and a Bradford TD run will seal the deal and SC will go home to LA and get a much deserved break. Tell Florida to schedule a real team in there first couple games.
  10. Brian
    10. Posted by Brian Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:04 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    I give respect to USC (it's their fans I don't like, and I am sure the feeling is mutual) but for anyone to insinuate a blowout hasn't watched both teams. USC has a strong team, as always, but their entire first half against SJSU was a struggle, and that was at home, obviously first game, still adjusting but this game is in the Shoe. The Buckeyes came out with a different game plan throwing the ball as opposed to Pryors typical look to run first, throw second option. The big difference will come down to the Buckeyes defense and the fans, if they get to Barkley and throw a few good hits on him, and keep the 110,000 plus on their feet and loud it could rattle Barkley. But if USC comes out and takes the 110.000 plus out of the game, doesn't allow the Buckeyes to get to Barkley, and lets USC run the ball, than I know I will be in for a long night.
  11. Brian
    11. Posted by Brian Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:05 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    I give respect to USC (it's their fans I don't like, and I am sure the feeling is mutual) but for anyone to insinuate a blowout hasn't watched both teams. USC has a strong team, as always, but their entire first half against SJSU was a struggle, and that was at home, obviously first game, still adjusting but this game is in the Shoe. The Buckeyes came out with a different game plan throwing the ball as opposed to Pryors typical look to run first, throw second option. The big difference will come down to the Buckeyes defense and the fans, if they get to Barkley and throw a few good hits on him, and keep the 110,000 plus on their feet and loud it could rattle Barkley. But if USC comes out and takes the 110.000 plus out of the game, doesn't allow the Buckeyes to get to Barkley, and lets USC run the ball, than I know I will be in for a long night.
  12. bobby20mikemike
    12. Posted by bobby20mikemike Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:09 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    i am soooo sick of hearing that The Ohio State football program is Underrated!. 7 points out of Vegas? ....I fell this is as right as ive seen in a while THIS GAME WILL BE PLAYED IN THE SHOE...REMEMBER THAT.... PRYOR IS STILL GROWING , AND I GIVE CREDIT WHERE ITS DUE, I WOULD BE LIEING IF I SAID I WASNT CONCERNED ABOUT THE TOOLS THAT uc BRINGS TO THE GAME ,BUT THIS ONE WILL BE CLOSER THAT ANYONE EXPECTS ON THE WEST COAST. i ONLY WISH I MADE THE KIND OF MONEY IT TAKES TO BUY A TICKET TO THIS GAME ........GO BUCKEYES!!!!!!!!!
  13. brian b
    13. Posted by brian b Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:11 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    the first half was a struggle? did you not see the second quarter? 28 unanswered points is not a struggle at all. but i do agree. the 110,000 fans and a corner blitz can rattle barkley. lets see how SC's O line does and that will determine the run game and ultimately, the game.
  14. bobby20mikemike
    14. Posted by bobby20mikemike Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:11 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    P.s. sweater vest are cool......
  15. bobby20mikemike
    15. Posted by bobby20mikemike Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:11 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    P.s. sweater vest are cool......
  16. Dave R
    16. Posted by Dave R Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:14 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    a freshman QB in his first big road game steering a limping team that is working to replace the all NFL rookie defensive team going against a hungry home team with all the parts in place. there is NO WAY sc wins by more than a hundred!
  17. Koda
    17. Posted by Koda Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:26 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    It will come down to defense I belive both quarterbacks will handle the game well in Barkley and Pryor. This is the chance for both of them to prove themselves. In the end though I think USC wins but not by much go 31-28.
  18. Rob
    18. Posted by Rob Wed Sep 09, 2009 11:54 am EDT

    Report Abuse

    LOL...."recruiting pitch: they've never proven anything." That's halarious....and true basically, they do have the best players that discreet money can buy down there in So.Cal. Anyway, I really want the buckeyes to win this one, since if they don't it will be used by morons as more "the whole big-ten is terrible" fodder, ever though OSU's preformances in big games and against USC has squat to do with other Big-Ten teams (especially my lions). However, I am a realist, and I think USC is gonna win this one by between 14-17 points. I hate to admit it, but the buckeyes just don't seem to be able to beat the trojans (although OSU always does really well against powerhouse big-12 teams), and they looked absolutely god-awful against freakin' Navy. If you have to hold your breathe to get a home win against an armed forces football team, well, you might as well not even show up against the Trojans. I'll still be rooting for the buckeyes (i predicted last year's match between these two teams to be a close buckeye victory...oops), but i think my eyes are finally open, and I'm not expecting much out of them this year (which is good news for PSU!). USC 31 - OSU 17
  19. willb
    19. Posted by willb Wed Sep 09, 2009 12:04 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    USC always gets a lot of action in Vegas so the line there may not be indicative of the outcome. The spread is not meant to be a predictor of the outcome, but an amount that will generate the most activity on both sides.
    It is easy to make an argument for either team winning, but regardless of the outcome the game will be close (3 points or less). So if I were to bet, I would take the points. Just like Bernie Madoff picking stocks, if it seems too good to be true it ain't. Caveat viator.
  20. albert r
    20. Posted by albert r Wed Sep 09, 2009 12:24 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    So what you are basically saying is that the Trojan offense is not anywhere near as potent as Navy, and will stuggle to move the ball on Buckeyes, even though the Midshipmen did so fairly consistently.
    Yes...i agree, Navy talent is better than USC's. Where Navy blew the Buckeyes off the line, USC's deep and experienced offensive line will be no match for OSU's defensive linemen. Joe Mcknight is no where near the treat of Navy's elusive backs.
    Great sound logic. Really great prediction.
  21. brian b
    21. Posted by brian b Wed Sep 09, 2009 12:52 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    didn't SC take care of your lions also?
  22. RJ
    22. Posted by RJ Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:12 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    USC 31-14
  23. Rob
    23. Posted by Rob Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:29 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    ...yes 'brian b', PSU lost the rose bowl to USC. Thank you captain obvious. However, PSU played there worst game of the season (they were the least penalized team in the nation going into that game...they commited 14 penalties in the first half alone) & USC clearly played their best game that day. There are a couple big differences though like the fact that PSU lost 38-24...and it was very nearly 38-31 but time ran out when they were just yards from scoring a final TD. If the lions would've awaken just a bit earlier this game would've been very different. Actually, if they just could've re-done the 2nd quarter of that game, it would've been completely different. Ohio state failed to score a touchdown all game against USC. That's bad. Real bad. 38-24 means USC beat PSU fairly handily. 35-3 mean OSU didn't even belong on the same field. PSU beat the buckeyes too, at home in the horseshoe, which is excatly what's going to happen to the buckeyes this weekend again.
  24. Rob
    24. Posted by Rob Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:33 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    ...OSU barely belonged on the same field as Navy for god's sakes. I don't get it, Tressel must be the worts coach in the nation...i mean, OSU has top 5 (generally top 3 and somtimes the #1) recruiting classes every single year. Their team is always filled with the best 4 & 5 star prospects from all over the nation. So why do teams like Troy & Navy give them scares every top-tier team destroy them? There should be no excuse for that. It's gotta be the coaching.
  25. Rob
    25. Posted by Rob Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:34 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    *worst coach in the nation*...not worts coach, obviously, lol...

Dr. Saturday

Add to My Yahoo! RSS

Matt Hinton

Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

Related Photo Gallery

Y! Sports Blogs

Dr. Saturday Recent Readers