Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

The final Blog Poll ballot of the year is due Monday, rather than the usual Wednesday, so I thought I'd leave my first run at a final Top 25 up for dissection over the weekend. It's about as messy as it can be: I'll spoil the surprise and say Florida is my No. 1 team by a pretty good distance on the pack by virtue of beating a national-high nine teams that finished the season in bowl games with winning records, two of them in everybody's final top 10 and four in my initial top 15 below. The Gators faced the toughest schedule in the nation, based on opponents' combined winning percentage, and still won by 30 points per game; the highest average margin of victory in the country. That is a ridiculous fact, and won't be denied here because of a missed extra point against Ole Miss.

In the meantime, Kyle Whittingham would like to remind readers that voting is an inherently subjective exercise and should count for nothing in the real world:

"National champions is really a relative term. It's an opinion. Until there's a playoff system that's all it's going to be," Whittingham said in a teleconference Friday morning. "So we're really not caught up in that at this point and time."

"It's all opinion," he added, "and there's really no true champion with the system that is in place."

Comments are encouraged but, you know, don't get too worked up about it. Big chart is below the jump, and I can probably be talked out of anything on it.

As usual, I've rated teams according to quality wins (listed here in blue as defeated opponents who played in bowl games), losses of all varieties (in red) and a couple key statistics: average margin of victory, strength of schedule (as determined by Jeff Sagarin) and opponents' combined winning percentage. Remember, Florida has a ninth "quality win" (a 63-5 massacre over Kentucky) not even listed here:

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  1. Jc
    1. Posted by Jc Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:30 pm EDT

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    SEC recieved another "giveme" game for the title! when will voters ever get it right!
  2. ggodsmackk
    2. Posted by ggodsmackk Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:08 pm EDT

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    Thanks for putting out some #s to show why the Gators are the Champs!...... But, why is ND not a quality win for UNC.
  3. conor b
    3. Posted by conor b Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:29 pm EDT

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    Texas ahead of USC? Oh my...
  4. Mike
    4. Posted by Mike Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:16 pm EDT

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    It just proves the SEC is the best conference as of late. The conference has 5 BCS champions (Tennesee '98, LSU '04 and '07, Florida '06, '08). For the time being, the BCS is a satisfactory way to crown a national champion. Every week should be played as hard as necessary. Florida deserved to crowned champion yet again. Both '06 and '08 Gator squads survived the toughest schedules and prevailed in the BCS championship game. I admit, conferences like the SEC and Big 12 benefit from having a championship game. The Pac-10 and Big Ten don't have such games. You can't hold a team back because a championship game can help one team (ex: Florida in SEC) and a conference lacking one (ex: USC in Pac-10) can hurt them. I do admit Utah proved its worth, but I can't help but wonder if Bama would have had Andre Smith, what would happen? I mean, one of the best offensive linemen in the country and Bama's best. Because of his loss, the whole Bama line had to shift to take his place. Hypothetically, of course, I'm not sure if Utah could have applied the same pressure had Smith not been suspended. Texas had a hard time defeating Ohio State, which USC easily defeated. So just think what USC would have done to Texas if they played. Look at the Big 12 South teams. Ok St, Texas Tech and OU all lost. Some of the "better" teams in nation. It's easy to see that the Gators deserved the national crown. UF did lose to Ole Miss, but look at Ole Miss. They finished 2nd in the SEC West, lost their 4 games by a combined 15 points. So Florida's loss to Ole Miss is respectable. Anyways, "Giveme?" That's quite hard to believe. This Oklahoma squad had the most prolific offense. Florida stopped OU's offense twice within the 10 yard line. Before that, Oklahoma had a 90+% of scoring a TD in such a situation. UF grabbed two interceptions and stopped OU on multiple fourth downs. Florida just once again proved that the SEC is the premier conference since the start of the BCS.
  5. Geoffrey
    5. Posted by Geoffrey Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:34 pm EDT

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    I totally agree with the top 5. Both Florida and Texas lost heartbreakers to teams that are now ranked in the top 15, while USC lost to a team that lost to Utah. And of the two-loss teams, Oklahoma looked the best.
    In all honestly, this looks good, but I think Utah still has a beef.
  6. bigtexbd
    6. Posted by bigtexbd Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:07 pm EDT

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    "Texas had a hard time defeating Ohio State, which USC easily defeated. So just think what USC would have done to Texas if they played."
    It's very tempting to, but not totally fair to compare the USC-OSU game with the Texas-OSU game. It was a home game for USC, Ohio State was playing without Beanie Wells, and it was Terrelle Pryor's first start. Those are very different circumstances from the Fiesta Bowl.
  7. bigtexbd
    7. Posted by bigtexbd Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:07 pm EDT

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    whoops...forgot to clarify: responding to Mike
  8. jimtheg8r
    8. Posted by jimtheg8r Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

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    Great article, great stats. Factual instead of all the nonsensical blather. Gators played a total of ELEVEN bowl teams, NINE with winning overall records, all BCS. Only one (Hawaii) in a non-BCS conference. No team played a schedule as tough as UF...not even close.
    Next toughest schedule...Oklahoma.
    Two Texas "quality wins" Rice and Florida Atlantic. WOW. 5 BCS quality wins.
    Southern Cal, 6 BCS quality wins.
    UTAH???? Are you kidding??? ROTFLMAO. 2 BCS quality wins. When asked why they didn't mention Utah, Lou Holtz
    and Mark May said "we said all that needed to be said about Utah's qualification for #1" by saying nothing...absolutely right and the AP voters putting them #1 should have their right to vote rescinded. Undefeated playing cupcakes doesn't count no matter how much you want it to and irrespective of your state Attorney General's willingness to make a fool of himself.
    Toughest schedule, largest margin of victory, highest strength of schedule, 2nd highest (to Oklahoma) opponent winning percentage...Gators are number 1, USC, Texas and Utah are pretenders.
    JC...giveme game??? What are you smoking?
  9. oli
    9. Posted by oli Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:44 pm EDT

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    I'm a USC fan but I am in no way defending them or trying to say they deserve to be anywhee else but where they ended up. But I do wan tto say that even if Wells had been play, he wouldn't have comtrolled the game in a way to rectify a 32 pt loss. So OSU not having a Beanie Wells had nothing to do with us romping them. Congrats to Florida and see ya next yr. Fight On!
  10. jimtheg8r
    10. Posted by jimtheg8r Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

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    Sorry, meant to say Utah is a pretender. USC and Texas are worthy, but their claims to #1 are not.
  11. oli
    11. Posted by oli Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:44 pm EDT

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    I agree with jim...giveme game...seriously. If Floridas defense didn't come up huge on those to goaline attemps, Oklahoma wins the game. So to say they weren't a worthy opponent is a joke. There defense for being ranked 69th in the ncaa showed up big, Especially in the first half. Some of Bradfords passes were [profane]kn pretty to say the least. Tebow just willed his team in the second half along with Percy breakn lose. Its was a good game up till the final couple minutes when you knew it was over.
    Still, though, I wish there was a playoff along with every other person in America to see a true winner crowned. In the system we have, Florida deserves the title for there SOS and winning the games they needed to to get them the crystal football.
  12. oli
    12. Posted by oli Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:44 pm EDT

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    Having some problems typing tonight, jesus...I meant to spell the number two.
  13. RICH  G
    13. Posted by RICH G Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:47 pm EDT

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    I'm Sorry ladies and gentleman but this all reaks of covering up for incompetenet,thoughtless,early parkinson's maybe ,what ever it is that's clouded the moron's who could pick two teams who have losses over a team that had no losses and it's not like UTAH hasn't done this before and might i say back then i'll really bet the farm NOBODY paid it any mind back then ,Well kids those days are over i think we will be seeing alot of these cinderella type stories next year from alot of other schools besides THE GREAT UTAH UTES wake up gentleman you can't turn your backs on these up and coming kick the crap out of the old school ,at a freaking bowl no matter what there record was during the season . i think that what's been done to UTAH is like a soilder coming back from defending your safety as well as others only to be forgotten untill it suits them right .....IT'S CRAP and it has no place in any sport anywhere in the world its so easy you morons let the teams record and stats decide what bowl they go to with the best going to the national title game what's happened here is nothing but pure old fashion "do what ole boys say not what they do" OH PLEASE give me a break EVERYONE GET THIS ! UTAH IS #1, UTAH DESERVED TO PLAY IN THAT TITLE GAME, you morons allowed yourselves to show just how stupid some people can be , well i could go on but why ? you morons know who you are and what youve done just remeber ...GOD has a very weird sense of humor know it, live it understand it
  14. MikeLew
    14. Posted by MikeLew Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:43 pm EDT

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    You have Ohio State below Georgia, and I would go the other way, and here's why. Georgia has a slightly better SoS and Opp%, but OSU had a better differential by about a TD a game, so those are a wash. Against the 1 common opponent, Michigan State, OSU rolled big(45-7), whereas Georgia did not(24-12).
    Furthermore, Ohio State lost to your #2, #4, and #8 teams, two of whom they lead in the fourth quarter, while UGA lost to #1, #6, and #21, with only the loss to GaTech being close.
    Finally, the South Carolina and UK wins are equivalent to the Illinois and Troy wins, so if UGA has 6 quality wins, so should OSU.
    It's a small difference, but I think it's enough to move OSU above UGA
  15. peabird15
    15. Posted by peabird15 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:05 pm EDT

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    #15....What the.....?
    Utah got what they deserved....#2 or #3 or #4 or whatever....
    Know this:
    Gators are the National Champs...#1 BCS...#1 AP...
    After reading your message though, I am waiting to be smitten for loving that UF is #1...WOW!
    "soilder"-on, Bro!
  16. mikel g
    16. Posted by mikel g Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:19 pm EDT

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    yes the gators won the bcs title. so? its the bcs. everyone has pissed on the bcs since it started. but the sec fans celebrate it when its over? its hilarious. the sec is the best, what a complete joke. it all is.
  17. Armchair Expert
    17. Posted by Armchair Expert Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:09 pm EDT

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    I hate Tebow,SEC,BCS,FOX,a champion decided by a vote, and anyone who likes any of those. There will never be an undisputed national champion until the politics of college sports is displaced by a playoff system. The big money has ruined sports and college football is just one example of such.
  18. dragon43078
    18. Posted by dragon43078 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:47 pm EDT

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    Florida, utah, Usc, oklahoma then maybe Texas. Ohio State is good, but not great and Texas had to get lucky to squeak by them. But until there is a playoff system, this is just a popularity contest.
  19. jacob r
    19. Posted by jacob r Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:36 pm EDT

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    GO UTES!!! im a die hard utes fan and very proud of the only team in division 1 football to go undefeated this year! i wish the BCS wasn't so screwed up and utah would have at least gotten a chance at a national championship, which is why we need to integrate a playoff system to leave no question as to who are the natinal champions. was Floridas schedule harder? absolutely, but that doesnn't at all mean that utah couldn't beat florida in a champioship game, after all, ole miss showed us all that florida is not invincible right?
  20. rugman777
    20. Posted by rugman777 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:55 pm EDT

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    I'm not going to tear your ballot to pieces. I actually think it's rather fair (thank you for Utah over USC). I'm still not sure I understand your reasoning, though. Your mathematical system seems strange. Looking at this as a Bama fan--prior to the Auburn game you had Alabama #6. After beating a 5-6 Auburn team you, somehow, moved the Tide up to #4 even though nobody ahead of them lost. After losing to Florida, you dropped them to #8. Again, fair. But after losing to Utah, they moved up to #6. What makes them suddenly better than Texas Tech or Penn State? You thought Penn State was better than Bama when they were 11-1 and 11-0, respectively. How does Bama goin 1-2 since then and Penn State losing only to USC suddenly mean that Bama is better? You're system still confuses me, even if I agree if your conclusions.
  21. Rockabye Reggie Nelson
    21. Posted by Rockabye Reggie Nelson Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:47 pm EDT

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    Matt: My first problem comes with the last two teams.
    Missouri, which was mostly offensively impressive early against a Kleenex slate, and was not competitive in the second quarter against either Texas or OU, has weaker wins than any team in your top 25 except perhaps Oklahoma State, which counts Mizzou as a victim. Cal, with wins over the #12 and #22 teams in your Poll (I am right in taking the leftmost numbers as YOUR rankings, correct?), would seem to have a better resume, and the Bears can write off their Maryland loss to Jahvid Best's absence and an obscenely early start time.
    Georgia seems too high, as an eyeball test. If we're rating bodies of work, or teams as a whole, and that's possible, the Bulldogs could be ahead of Ole Miss, but I can't see a team that failed to come within 35 at a neutral site with the national champs and #1 team rated above the squad that scratched out the only win over that seeming juggernaut (in UF's 13 wins: 13 double-digit wins, 11 margins of victory of more than 20 points, 8 margins of victory greater than 30 points, an absurd average margin of victory of 33.1 points per game, no opponent scoring more than 21 points, 5 opponents scoring fewer than 10 points) AT THEIR STADIUM.
    In truth, the Texas Tech team that looked shaky after their win in Lubbock over Okie State is also a little overrated; utterly uncompetitive against OU, nearly knocked off by a plucky, less talented (save, of course, Robert Griffin) Baylor team, and duck-duck-goosed by the sprinting Rebels, the Raiders peaked just early enough to KO Texas with the emotion of a home crowd, and were lucky to claim even that one. (I still say Texas scored too early; lucky for the 'Horns, Dan Herron repaid them in kind.)
  22. oli
    22. Posted by oli Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:44 pm EDT

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    Rich G....what ur saying is ... you believe that Airforce, Clorado St. Wyoming, San Diego St. and UNLV could beat the likes of LSU, Florida and Georgia, Ole Miss and even Vandy. are you smokn crack. Im not an SEC fan in the slitghtest but I would have to learn towards...NOT EVEN CLOSE! lol. So I do believe that a one loss Florida team is better than a undefeated Utah team. I'm not sayn that Utah couldn't beat Florida but I am defending Florida in that they played a MUCH more difficult schedule than Utah did. You and I are in the same boat as far as playing in a weak conference and not getting any credit for doing so. My team lost a game, so they were undeserving to play in any bowl besides the one they did, where they handed it to the team they played. Just as ur Utes handed it to Alabama. Loved every minute of that. Hopefully, somehow, we can get a damn playoff so that a true champion, which is decided on the field, can be crowned.
  23. peabird15
    23. Posted by peabird15 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:05 pm EDT

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    #18...funny the winning team never pisses on the BCS! Just those that didn't make #1!
    I would love a playoff...maybe the Utes would beat the Gators....and maybe the Utes would have gotten man-handled (like I believe)....but for now...and as far back as I can remember (pre-BCS)....the Natl Champ was decided by a POLL! Opinion of those we think know the game....writers, coaches, etc...
    The BCS sucks...and the system we had before the BCS sucked....if the Gators were on the outside looking in, I would be furious...like other school's fans! This feeling that many are having has been around for a long, long time!
    But for now....UF #1....you can say what you want, wish, hope, think about what-ifs, pray, curse, spit, puke, whine, cry (USC fans), threaten court action, be a crying OU band member, imagine asterisks, pontificate that your team is #1 (even though they aren't) on TV, whatever.....in the books.....UF #1.
  24. Scott Frisco
    24. Posted by Scott Frisco Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:49 pm EDT

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    I like the comprehensive analysis of your table. A lot of great data comparing the top teams. What the table does overlook (probably by choice) is the element of Home field advantage. Florida's only loss was at home, USC's only loss was on the road (900 miles away). Both teams lost in the same week back in September (what have you done lately?). As far as the best team in the country... 3 teams are candidates: Florida, USC and Utah. Texas would be a distant 4th, being hurt by a close bowl victory over Ohio St and Texas Tech's bowl loss. Strength of schedule is another interesting topic. Great teams in Great conferences hugely benefit from strength of conference (Florida, Texas, OK). Great Teams (Utah) in weak conferences get hurt by strength of schedule. What about non-conference schedule? Florida did play FSU (at home, of course!), they also played The Citadel (at home of course---probably could have played at a military base in Iraq and the outcome would have been the same!). Oklahoma played Washington a very poor team that USC must play every year.
    I am fine with the BCS system as long as 2 teams stand head and shoulders above everyone else... I don't think that was the case this year! Even after the BCS championship, 3 teams have credible claims to be the best team in the country. Prior to the start of the bowl games several teams had claims: FL, Alabama, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Penn St, USC, Utah and Boise St (maybe you could take Alabama off the list as their loss was late in the season). Div I College Football needs a 16-team playoff system, I don't know how anyone can argue against it. My favorite team is a Div I-AA school that lost in the championship game. I don't argue with anyone that they were the best team in Div I-AA that just blew the championship. The kids played the game on the field and one team one--they are undisputed National Champs. I don't give any credibility to College Championship trophies unless they say "NCAA" on them. I agree with Terry Bowden, 16 Div I teams make the playoffs and the rest of the bowl deserving teams play in "NIT Bowl games". At this time there is 1 championship bowl game (which I don't agree with) and 31 "NIT Bowl games". The most exciting bowl games this year were: Texas - Ohio St, followed by Utah - Alabama.
  25. jimtheg8r
    25. Posted by jimtheg8r Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

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    Everyone conveniently talks about the Citadel and doesn't mention UF's out of conference including F$U, Hawaii and Miami...all bowl teams. The facts on this table are great...9 quality wins over bowl teams with winning records plus all the other stuff. No one else (except Oklahoma) is close to UF in the results leading up to the NC game.
    Yea, you can beat up the Gators for wins over KY, So Carolina, etc. But we only played THREE TEAMS that didn't play in bowls. Here's the final Rivals 120 Rankings for UF:
    4
    6
    13
    15Loss
    21
    30
    44
    49
    52
    53
    59
    70
    76
    NR
    And the final for Utah:
    6
    8
    14
    55
    62
    75
    84
    85
    98
    107
    111
    NR
    NR
    No comparison. Do the same for USC, Texas, OU, Bama, etc. All in a different league...in every sense...than Utah with UF the most impressive by far.
    Gators #1...and loving it.

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