Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Everybody loves Texas this summer, for obvious reasons -- namely, it's likely to take 35 points to beat the Longhorns, and the only two teams that hit that mark on them last season finished first and third nationally in scoring offense. (And it still wasn't enough to put Oklahoma over the top.) Still, every giant has his Achilles heel, and as hard as it is to find fault with an offense very likely to top 40 points per game again, in the case of Texas' offense, the target is a fat one: The running game. Quick -- name the 'Horns' starting running back this fall. Even Texas fans might be slow on the draw with that question because it's not clear that they have one, or, after their performance in last year's underwhelming rotation, that one will emerge.

It's also not clear that it matters, given the absurd heights of the passing game, which incorporates plenty of safe throws of the "long handoff" variety. I went much further in his critique earlier this season:

... the Longhorns' backs certainly don't want a repeat of last season, when quarterback Colt McCoy pulled a Vince Young and led the ground attack with 561 yards and was the only member in the backfield to have 100 carries, with much of his run production coming primarily on scrambles in the spread attack.
[...]
It's understood the Longhorns will have to make a dramatic improvement running the ball this season if they seriously hope to compete for a national title. Their inability to effectively run and possess the football was probably what stood between them and the BCS title game last season.

The no-name running backs are fair game for skepticism, but both of those assumptions seem a little out of place when referring to a team that a) Presumably has "a serious hope" of competing for a national title even without dramatically improved rushing numbers, because it seriously competed for a championship last year despite mediocrity on the ground, and b) Finished second in the Big 12 and eighth nationally in time of possession, holding the ball for 15 minutes longer than Oklahoma, 13 minutes longer than Missouri, seven minutes longer than Oklahoma State, five minutes longer than Kansas and Texas A&M and almost 17 minutes longer than Baylor. The game Harris cites as a failure of the Longhorns' ability to control the clock with the run, the loss at Texas Tech, was one in which UT was scrambling to make up a 22-6 deficit at the half, after the Longhorn defense allowed Raider drives of 37, 52, 96, 83 and 46 yards that ate more than 20 minutes off the clock. After the 'Horns' first carry of the game -- a missed assignment that led to a Red Raider safety, and a subsequent Tech touchdown that put UT two scores in the hole after a single offensive snap -- the "ball control" approach wasn't exactly viable.

I do feel where Harris and similar critics are coming from, when Mack Brown's offenses for so long were based on either burly workhorses or Vince Young's having descended from the planet Freakalon 9, both of which have been conspicuously absent the last three years, and last year especially. I mean, there must be something wrong with this trend:

If you include Young's 1,000-yard season in 2005, all of Brown's offenses have featured one go-to back who handled in the neighborhood of three-fourths of all the carries -- Ricky Williams, Hodges Mitchell and Cedric Benson ran themselves ragged between the tackles before Young's talents forced a greater emphasis on the shotgun and zone read. That was a perfect vehicle for Jamaal Charles' big season in 2007, but McCoy had vastly less support in 2006 and almost none to speak of last year -- obviously no one of Charles' caliber -- when he handled most of the business himself.

Texas' position toward this, I think, is as follows: They're fine with it. When you're in front, you don't shift gears; you hit the gas. As middling as it looked in the big picture, the committee approach was still above average by Big 12 standards and had solid efforts -- over 150 yards on at least four yards per carry -- in the wins over Oklahoma, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M. Beyond that, as the time of possession numbers here clearly demonstrate, "ball control" does not always mean "grinding running game," if your robot quarterback is the most consistent passer in NCAA history. Look at Colt McCoy's completion percentages -- the guy hit at least 80 percent of his targets in seven different times last year, including all three wins in the Oklahoma-Missouri-Oklahoma State gauntlet that put UT back on the national map at midseason. At nine yards a pop, that's a better success rate than handing off has ever had, no matter who was in the backfield.

McCoy only looked human once, in that loss to Texas Tech, and still almost left Lubbock with the game-winning touchdown drive under his belt. So the only thing that is clearly "understood" about Texas' running game is that its major function -- other than picking up a crucial yard here and there on third or fourth down -- is just keeping defenses honest as long as McCoy is pulling the trigger.

In fact, if there's any incentive to shift a heavier burden to the running game, it's keeping McCoy upright; he's never been seriously injured, but after well over 300 carries through the years by a guy who doesn't know how to slide, there have to be fewer sands left in that hourglass. Texas can't afford to lose its quarterback, which seems like a good enough reason to shift some of McCoy's carries to the backs. But that's just spot relief. Assuming they still let Colt throw at least 30 times a game, the results speak for themselves: The Longhorns' title drive is only going to be derailed by another offense -- like Texas Tech's last year -- explosive enough to set the pace, or at least keep up with it. Unless McCoy's arm goes limp between now and October, there's no reason for Texas to let off the pedal.

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21 Comments

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  1. cwr43
    1. Posted by cwr43 Thu Jul 02, 2009 5:18 pm EDT

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    Hook em. Great insight.
  2. Tye B
    2. Posted by Tye B Thu Jul 02, 2009 11:00 pm EDT

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    Maybe he didn't miss a ton of playing time, but the shot he took in the 2006 K-State/Texas game put him out of most of that game, and he clearly wasn't himself against Texas A&M the next week. He hasn't torn an ACL or had a concussion or anything, but he was clearly hurt at the end of 2006.
  3. JB
    3. Posted by JB Thu Jul 02, 2009 11:20 pm EDT

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    Who cares, they'll probably lose 3 games after their cupcake non con sched.
    McCoy is an overrated HS QB.
    Think Sooners will kick their ass and most likely put him out of the game. OSU
    will beat them at home and they'll stink it up in another somewhere playing away.
    Sure don't want to endure another round of all that crying and politicing, its getting
    old.
  4. jmf_63
    4. Posted by jmf_63 Fri Jul 03, 2009 5:21 pm EDT

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    as the year goes on i believe Chris Whaley will become a very big part of the running game......we'll soon find out....hook em...
  5. Ryan R
    5. Posted by Ryan R Fri Jul 03, 2009 9:25 pm EDT

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    Hey JB, this "HS QB" will school OU pretty bad on our way to the Rose Bowl this year. The sooners' defense couldn't lay a finger on him last year....what makes you think it'll happen this year with a more experienced O-line? I'm betting money on Sergio Kindle putting a hole in Bradford's midsection as big as the one he put in that apartment earlier this week...
  6. Robert B
    6. Posted by Robert B Sat Jul 04, 2009 2:05 am EDT

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    With the #1 rated defensive line and a very good and healthy linebacker corp. the Sooners will shut down the longhorn running game. I can see a 2 td win by the Sooners. I also feel like OSU will beat the horns in Stillwater.The upset of the season will be a Texas Tech win in Austin.
  7. Crazy Steve
    7. Posted by Crazy Steve Sat Jul 04, 2009 2:12 am EDT

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    Bradford tried to play like Colt once last year and cartwheeled like a rag-doll. Beautiful "highlight". Nice way to finish the season too. OU were 0-2 against the big boys. OU will have at least two losses this year too.
  8. Andy
    8. Posted by Andy Sat Jul 04, 2009 3:45 am EDT

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    OU fan has to be the comic relief at any party. I mean OU fan has the nerve to run down a guy that walked all over them in the RedRiver Rivalry last year. Anything any OU fan says in these forums other than "I hope we can play better on both sides of the ball and FINALLY win a big game" should be immediately ignored and stored into the dumb OU fan folder. And then to say that Texas Tech is going to beat Texas in Austin that is moronic, dont forget OU fan that 2 seasons ago you also lost in Lubbock. I am not a Texas or OU fan but I respect the Longhorns because they back up what they say. UT should have been playing in the BCS title game last year over OU and the whole country minus OU nation was in agreement. The days of OU bashing Texas are over and Sooner fans need to realize they have lost 3 out of the last 4 to Texas. Having got OU fans heart rate up with the facts I will say this though and that is OU will beat Texas this year and have another shot at the BCS title game. OU has a better QB, a GREAT TE and when healthy one of the best RB's in the country who can also return kicks. OU also has a better defense than Texas not by a wide margin but they are better. If Bob Stoops can stay out of his own way and let these kids win the game for him they have a great shot at raising the trophy. Stop with the gambles they havent worked and they arent going too you have a punter and a FG kicker for a reason Big Game Bob(who hasnt won a big game in 5 years). Good luck to Texas though I definately would love to see Stoops try another fake punt and lose momentum again in a Cotton Bowl loss. I dont see either team beating Florida so fight it out for the Big 12 championship because the big trophy stays in the SEC again this year
  9. Sevenhander
    9. Posted by Sevenhander Sat Jul 04, 2009 8:53 am EDT

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    LOL JB. Must be tough up there on the other side of the Red River. If it weren't for the fact that Texas is loaded with so much high school talent that some of them end up HAVING to go elsewhere to continue their career, you'd end up relegated to dropping football altogether and adding cricket, or maybe Division II bowling. We feel your frustration. It's hilarious watching an OU game and noting that typically something like 9 out of 10 starters on either side of the ball are the kids that either weren't invited to Texas, or realized they couldn't bump the guy they'd be competing for a job against. Must kill you guys to have to accept that even in the rare event you beat us, you did it with Texas kids. Ok, I've hammered home the fact well enough. But I'd suggest you and the rest of your ilk try to refocus and start concentrating more on the Mizzou's and OK States and less on us. You're way outclassed in more ways than one to continue expending so much energy on us, only to be routinely dismissed like any other practice squad. lol
  10. Andy
    10. Posted by Andy Sat Jul 04, 2009 12:23 pm EDT

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    "J B" I was in the Cotton Bowl watching the game live and Oklahoma at no point was kicking Texas a$$ in that game. I mean the halftime score was 21-20 guy. The game turned around when Stoops faked a punt from midfield and was stopped. That turned the momentum and Texas came back and won the game nothing was handed to him. And you come on here runnin smack on players off the field activity when USC has the Bush thing going on and is a hair away from probation about the O J Mayo thing in basketball. If that isnt the pot calling the kettle black nothing is.
    "Joe" to say that all OU starters are from TX is a joke. Oklahoma does have a lot of kids from TX on the team but the majority of them are from the DFW area and that is far from prime recruiting ground for Texas. I would dare to say that if you even get 50% of the kids in the DFW area at Texas that would be it. As far as 9-10 starters you were right there are 10 out of 22 starters from TX BUT as far as skill position players: Bradford(OK), Murray(NV), Brown(LA), Gresham(OK), Broyles(OK), Madu(OK), and Tennell is from TX. So Joe as far as the QB, 2RB, 3WR and the starting TE goes there is one kid from Texas. Oklahoma is very strong in recruiting DFW and the surrounding areas and that is where they get the TX kids. Maybe if Mack Brown could get DFW in his back pocket then they could wipe OU out but until then get used to seeing those kids make a short trip to Norman.
  11. herbert e
    11. Posted by herbert e Sat Jul 04, 2009 3:22 pm EDT

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    jb i was at the game also interception is the end zone, if the player goes to the ground with the ball he has to maintain possesion of the ball and you know he didnt. if qb runs out of bounds you cant touch him and they did. bob stoopid tried a fake punt and that stupid kid from oklahoma didnt get out of the punters way. big game bob choked again. him and pete carroll are mr febuary.
  12. herbert e
    12. Posted by herbert e Sat Jul 04, 2009 3:24 pm EDT

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    yall can have that mama's boy mcfarland he should fet right in with the other baby's
  13. John
    13. Posted by John Sun Jul 05, 2009 9:47 pm EDT

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    JB, I dont know what to be more suprised with, someone believing OSU is going to beat Texas or that someone in Oklahoma has and uses a computer. Good luck with those predictions.
  14. GEOFF S
    14. Posted by GEOFF S Sun Jul 05, 2009 9:52 pm EDT

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    11. Posted by herbert e Sat Jul 04, 2009 3:22 pm EDT Report Abuse
    jb i was at the game also interception is the end zone, if the player goes to the ground with the ball he has to maintain possesion of the ball and you know he didnt. if qb runs out of bounds you cant touch him and they did. bob stoopid tried a fake punt and that stupid kid from oklahoma didnt get out of the punters way. big game bob choked again. him and pete carroll are mr febuary.
    I was at that game to. I will give you the non pic in the end zone, but Those two roughing the passer calls were BS. Both plays the defender was in reality just trying to help McCoy from falling. It was bad acting by McCoy and even worse officiating by the ref. Still a defensive player has to be smart enough not to even take the chance that that can happen and just let the QB bite the turf. The real difference in that game was Ryan Reynolds going down and not playing the 2nd half. Either way You see it....it was still a 3 way tie last year....ESPN loves to stir the pot for ratings and it was shameful with all the politickin the Mac did last year.(like being allowed to come on the broadcast while OU and OSU are Playing) Texas should be tuff again this year, and the possibilty of a 3 way tie is back if OSU can live up to the hype. (Just a side note to the the other conferences...more to the point SEC fans. See how the big 12 are rivals and don't like the other teams to be succesful.....SEC fans are sickening when they talk up there conference rather than their actual team. If You like Arkansas(or any other sub par sec team)...root for your team and stop bragging about Florida and the freaking SEC. Florida fans are the only sec fans who have any room to run smack.
  15. wilcotex
    15. Posted by wilcotex Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:37 pm EDT

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    HOLY COW!! Bradford a better QB than Colt? Really? Please go ahead and justify that one for me. And yes OU may still have a good defense, but they lost almost their entire O Line. Oh you forgot to mention that didnt you. How do you expect Bradford to get any protection? Bradford is gonna get put on his butt more that Colt did his Soph year. Bradford doesn't have the wheels to get out of trouble like Colt does. If any QB gets "knocked out" of the Red River shoot out this year it will be Bradford.
    As for the comment about TT upsetting the Horns in Austin, I know that was just a comment to stir the pot, because no one could possibly be stupid enough to believe that.
    Hook Em'
  16. Andy
    16. Posted by Andy Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:04 am EDT

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    "GEOFF S" Florida is the only team that can run smack in here from the SEC? I dont know if I read that right or took it out of context so tell me if I did. I mean in the BCS era there have been 3 teams that have won 1 BCS title as have Oklahoma and Texas and Florida and LSU did it twice. So I am pretty sure that Florida(2 BCS titles), LSU(2 BCS titles) and Tennessee(1 BCS title) can run just as much smack in here as any Big 12 team because they have as many rings. Auburn has 1 undefeated season in which they were hosed out of the BCS game so I am sure they can run smack not to mention that every time Texas needs a D coordinator they seem to go down to Auburn and get one. And the funny one you put in there is Arkansas because the last 4 times Arkansas has played Texas they have a 2-2 record with a win in Austin so I am sure they arent scared of a Big 12 team. People like to say subpar SEC team because maybe a Tennessee wins 5 games last year, well the year before that they went to the SEC championship and lost 21-14 to eventual BCS champions LSU slick. Dont worry Texas is going to get a shot at an SEC team one year and the outcome is going to not be to your liking. I live in Dallas and go to the Cotton Bowl every year and I can still remember my buddy telling me Texas A&M was going to beat Tennessee a few years back because Tennessee was "down". The halftime score was 35-0, the fact of the matter is in the SEC teams arent used to the speed on defense. Just like Oklahoma last year when they were running anywhere between 35-60 points on every team in the Big 12 and I mean every team. They scored 14 points on a team that they had over 40 days to prepare for so what is the excuse there because I mean Texas gave up 35 that is 3 TD's more. The return comment will probably be Florida had over 40 days to prepare also well in that case the better talent won then. You put Texas in the Big 12 and you still have a ring because Vince Young was one of the best college players to ever step onto the football field BUT you dont have the BCS games you have enjoyed the last couple years. Texas would have been the 3rd best team in the SEC last year behind Florida and Georgia. And as far as the Red River Rivalry last year I also went to that game and there were late hit calls on both sides it was even. The momentum changed when Stoops(the damn idiot) tried a fake punt and was stopped at midfield. It was a great game but Texas won it fair and square and I loved watching OU fans walking through the fair with heads hung low after talking all that trash pregame contemplating staying at the fair or going 35/75 North. I will ask you this though Texas fan, if you cant win in Lubbock, TX what makes you think you could win in Oxford, MS. The Tech vs Ole Miss game wasnt what you expected either
  17. herbert e
    17. Posted by herbert e Mon Jul 06, 2009 9:45 am EDT

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    vince young was not one of the best he was the best. ole miss beat tt with a backup quarterback from texas right. florida beat ou by 10 texas beat ou by 10. the backup beat florida at home. so that doesnt make texas loss on a dropped interception look so bad does it. tblow coudnt start for tx or ou. the only team sec had was florida. georgia couldnt beat their pud.
  18. GEOFF S
    18. Posted by GEOFF S Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:12 pm EDT

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    Andy............LOL You just made my point about SEC fans. You still did not announce which team was yours. I never once stated which conference I thought was better. Who is your team?
    I love this line " Texas would have been the 3rd best team in the SEC last year behind Florida and Georgia."
    Are you freaking serious? You have Georgia(9-3) over Bama(12-1) in Your own conference for last season?
    Lets talk about her and now. Yes Florida is the only team from the SEC that can run smack. If you want to hang your hat on old titles....well then OU wins this arguement hands down. 7 AP National tiltes....(oh wait if you want to get crazy and count all the titles that bama claims I gues you sorta win....considering they claim every small paper and trivial title that ever printed them as #1)but I'm talkin about last year and this upcoming season....the ones that matter in the present. So SEC lover....who is your team and not your conference?
  19. GEOFF S
    19. Posted by GEOFF S Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:23 pm EDT

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    15. Posted by wilcotex Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:37 pm EDT Report Abuse
    HOLY COW!! Bradford a better QB than Colt? Really? Please go ahead and justify that one for me. And yes OU may still have a good defense, but they lost almost their entire O Line. Oh you forgot to mention that didnt you. How do you expect Bradford to get any protection? Bradford is gonna get put on his butt more that Colt did his Soph year. Bradford doesn't have the wheels to get out of trouble like Colt does. If any QB gets "knocked out" of the Red River shoot out this year it will be Bradford.
    As for the comment about TT upsetting the Horns in Austin, I know that was just a comment to stir the pot, because no one could possibly be stupid enough to believe that.
    Hook Em'
    Colt McCoy 2008 Rating 173.75 Yards 3,859 Touch Downs 34
    Sam Bradford 2008 Rating 180.84 Yards 4,720 Touch Downs 50 (oh and the Heisman)
    Colt McCoy three full years career Yards 9, 732 TD's 85
    Sam Bradford two full years career Yards 7, 841 TD's 86
    The numbers speak for themselves
    Sam Bradfords projected Draft position is #1
    Colt McCoy may not get drafted in the first 3 rounds.
  20. Joshgator
    20. Posted by Joshgator Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:33 pm EDT

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    So herbert, from what your saying is that Ole Miss' backup QB beat Texas Tech BY HIMSELF? Hey dummy, how many people contribute to a football game? This isn't singles tennis. There are 11 guys on offense, 11 on defense, plus special teams, backups, and coaches. The Ole Miss TEAM beat the Texas Tech TEAM. Not one player. Just admit that the Big 12 was not as good as everyone thought. Florida beat Oklahoma, Ole Miss beat Texas Tech, and Texas BARELY eeked out a victory over the laughable Ohio State Suckeyes. Hardly something to brag about. And as for Texas' loss on a dropped interception. Don't forget that Texas Tech outscored Texas all game long, had more offensive yardage, 579-374, first downs, etc. (see http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/boxscores/2008/11/01/37954_boxscore.html). Texas only led for 1 minute and 28 seconds the entire game. It is not like Texas was close all game. They were outscored 22-6 at the half. Also, Tebow is better than Bradford and McCoy but WOULDN'T WANT to start for Texass or BlowU. I'm so sick of you blowhards that keep talking like your team is a world-beater. Where's your proof? What? You don't have any proof? I thought so. Give me a break.
  21. GEOFF S
    21. Posted by GEOFF S Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:54 pm EDT

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    Tebow? Look I have and will continue to give it up to the gators, but to say Tebow is better is funny. In that OU Fl. game both qb's threw 2 pics. Big difference was Both of Tebow's were thrown right to OU defenders cuase they were bad passes. Bradford's two pics were both times the OU reciever not making the catch and tipping the ball up. Is Tebow good....hell yes. But all the attention for his off the field work is getting old. Last time I checked they gave the Heisman to the past player on the FIELD. It is not an award for the best Christian. Tebow would be a running back for most teams in the country....and will most likely not take a qb snap in the NFL. That Blow U team was two offensive plays from opening the Fl game wide open in the first half. Florida won but they did not exactly man handle OU. So stop with the no proof game. I have said before that the SEC is usualy year after year the best conference....but no, they were 2nd to the big 12 in 2008. Yes Fl won the title, but top to bottom the big 12 was simply better in 2008. This year looks like the SEC should be back on top(If LSU, AUB,and TENN can right their ships)

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