Fri May 15, 2009 3:36 pm EDT
Wait: Is Ohio State really a national championship contender?
One of the themes of the last couple weeks is contenders, and what makes (or breaks) a team's shot at No. 1, and as I indicated in premature assessment of Ohio State, OSU -- a ubiquitous contender the last four years -- looks like a definite "break." This has much less to do with the Buckeyes' recent failures in their biggest games (though they've become too obvious for even an OSU defender to overlook) than with the much more immediate fact that -- well, here, let the Leader's Mark Schlabach explain it in his latest post-spring top-25:
It's hard to imagine the Buckeyes' being as good as last season without star players such as Chris "Beanie" Wells, James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins.
You don't have to much further than that, actually, unless you want to add the departures of three-year starting linebacker Marcus Freeman, the leading receivers the last two years, Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline, and three three-year starters on the offensive line (four if you count tight end Rory Nicol). That group was at the core of a lot of wins in its time, "big" and otherwise. Their departure signals an obvious rebuilding year, and another strong push with a fully formed Terrelle Pryor in 2010.
So why does Schlabach still classify OSU as one of a handful of top contenders for the BCS championship?
How they get to Pasadena: Find a running back to replace Chris "Beanie" Wells. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor should be better in his second season as a starter, but he'll have to carry a bigger load without Wells lining up behind him. The Buckeyes will probably go with a tailback tandem of Dan "Boom" Herron and Brandon Saine.
Biggest roadblock: at Penn State, Nov. 7
Obviously, Schlabach isn't so concerned with the defense or that nondescript visit from USC in September. And, to be fair, his assessment of the Buckeyes is probably the highest you'll find so far.
But if you click that link, you'll notice OSU is almost unanimously slotted in the 7-8 range in the top-10, and is the runaway Big Ten favorite over the Nittany Lions; presumably, that means most pundits think the Buckeyes will beat Penn State in Happy Valley.
And if that's the case, with no other likely top-20 teams on the conference schedule, it puts OSU exactly one win away from becoming a mythical championship frontrunner: Over USC in Columbus. That's what makes such projections and underlying assumptions this early in the year so tenuous; the regular season most certainly is not a playoff, but if you want a scenario that's totally unique to college football, there it is -- Ohio State's entire trajectory can change with one upset. See Texas last year, a fringe top-10 team that stunned Oklahoma, vaulted to No. 1 in a week and finished seconds from its own championship trip to Miami.
From appearances, Ohio State wouldn't have to face the kind of gauntlet that awaited the Longhorns from that point forward -- if it got by USC, barring a much bigger upset, it would just that roadblock on Nov. 7, at Penn State. In which, it seems, the Buckeyes are already favorites. So maybe the answer is yes, with some breaks and a heroic effort from Terrelle Pryor on Sept. 12, Ohio State is a serious national title contender. As safety Kurt Coleman knows well, the lines are that thin.
But still: 13 new starters? They're such a longshot, Schlabach. If OSU is a contender, then so are half a dozen others on the outside-looking-in categories.
Dr. Saturday
Matt Hinton
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.
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67 Comments
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Just kidding.
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I'm NOT putting the Buckeyes on my contenders list for '09, I'm just saying rebuilding a defense FAST is something they appear to be quite good at (as opposed to O-line play and big game prep).
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I L L I N I !!!!!
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In 08 they got smashed by USC just like every other team that plays USC at home. It didn't help that the best running back in the country was on the sideline instead of in the game, but the fact is USC was the best team in all of CFB last year and routinely smashes every good team they play when they play at home. Then in the Fiesta Bowl, in a game against a team many thought should be playing for the NC, they lost on a last second TD in the most exciting game of bowl season.
Yes, they have lost on the big stage lately, but they have also won on the big stage, including their NC against a Miami team that was considered one of the best ever assembled. They are 4-3 in BCS/NC games, won TWO #1 vs. #2 games in 06 (no team has ever won 3 such matchups in one year) and although they struggle against the SEC in bowl games (played in SEC territory), their overall record vs. the SEC is perfectly acceptable given the fact that the SEC is god's gift to football.
Ohio State has appeared in 3 NC games and about 2,783 Fiesta Bowls this decade and have earned it every time (though I'll entertain arguments that their enormous fan base certainly doesn't hurt in their annual trip to the desert). They schedule tough non-con. games and when you do that, you win some and you lose some. How many SEC powerhouses can claim the non-con. schedule of OSU? (hint: the answer is none). They play in big-time BCS bowls against big-time teams and have a winning record. Can annual powerhouse Oklahoma say that?(see above for the answer)
Now that I've said my piece, please, everyone go back to hating OSU because thats what makes CFB fun, but in the back of your minds, you'll know the truth.
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i bleed scarlet & gray, but even i'm not a big enough homer to say that osu was the best team in '06. we got stomped and it wasn't a fluke.
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Saying the 06 Buckeyes weren't the best team in CFB that year is revisionist history. There is a reason they won two #1 vs. #2 games that year, there is a reason every analyst agreed they'd handle Florida with ease, there is a reason Troy Smith won the Heisman and about half of the team ended up being 1st round picks. They did lose, and they lost ugly, but its not making excuses to say there was actual reasons they lost that do not diminish the fact that they were the best team. The loss of Ted Ginn and his ability to stretch out the Gator defense alone is a major factor, and that's just one of the reasons they lost so badly. Winning the NC does not equal being the best team, it just means having the best season. USC was the best team last year, Florida won the NC. In 02, Miami was the best team, OSU won the NC. In 06, OSU was the best team, Florida won the NC, and to say otherwise is to ignore the whole season because of the results of one game.
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Also, @SEC speed, I have a hard time feeling bad for aOSU playing without Ted Ginn, since it was their own idiotic post-TD celebration in which his foot was broken. What a bunch of morons.
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While it would be a stretch to call Tressel's offensive schemes genius, he has beaten Mack Brown, Charlie Weiss, Rich Rodriguez, Les Miles (without a QB for much of the game no less), Lloyd Carr, Kirk Ferentz, and Joe Paterno during his stay at Ohio State. I'm not sure what you consider an elite coach, but at least one from that group has to qualify.
As for Ted Ginn/idiotic TD celebration, if you are saying all TD celebrations are idiotic, then fine, but the actual TD celebration from that game simply involved players jumping around, and Ginn happened to land badly. Just a fluke really, nothing idiotic like an entire team running from the sideline to the endzone or anything...Besides, I didn't say anybody should feel bad, I just pointed out losing Ginn was a part of the loss to Florida. And whether or not you think celebrating an opening kickoff TD is idiotic or not, that still remains true.
But that just goes to show the larger point, that OSU has this ridiculously bad reputation for what amounts to nothing. In his mind, #15 thinks Jim Tressel can't beat anybody, but Ohio State has played the biggest non-con. game of the season in 05, 06, 08, and coming up in 09. In 05, they lost on some last minute heroics from Vince Young, who then went to lead UT to an undefeated NC and is considered one of the best that ever played. But they were the only team all season that slowed Vince Young down even a little that season, and had the game-winning TD bounce off the hands of a wide-open TE. In 06, they beat up on Texas in the rematch. In 08 they got smashed by USC on the road, the same USC that put 5 guys in the 1st round of the draft this year. In 09, who knows, but if they win against USC, is it even remotely fair to suggest Tressel can't win the big ones?
Ohio State has become a sort of Notre Dame jr. The university has a massive fan base, spread out all across the country, that roots for the Buckeyes as proudly and faithfully as any school out there. Because of the big non-conference games they play, and the michigan game, and their constant presence in BCS games (which they have a winning record in), I can understand it is easy to develop a hatred of OSU. I hate Notre Dame for no other reason than "it's Notre Dame". That's fine, hate all your want, but don't start thinking the fact that you hate OSU means OSU is terrible. Arguing that OSU is "over-rated" or "can't win the big ones" or "is 4 stoopid morans who sellibrate tuchdowns!" is an excercise in futility. Since Tressel has taken over at OSU, the Buckeye's have only one truly ugly loss, to Florida in the 06 NC, and everything else is just the ups and downs of college football. In 07, LSU was better, and they won. In 08, USC was better and they won. Recent games against UT or PSU were evenly matched games that just went against the Buckeyes. Is it really that disgraceful to lose? Why don't coaches like Meyer, Brown, Carroll, or Stoops get the never-ending ridicule that OSU and Tressel get for losing? I know what I think, but I sure would love to hear any other reasonable explanations for this.
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For you bashers, Overrated is a very harse statement... Dissappointing is more adequate. Losing is part of the game. That is why it is the greatest sport in the US. Regardless of stats, experts, opinoins, and all the physical measurables you still got to play the game. And on any given weekend you can win or lose against the same team.
As far as a man and a coach I give Tressel all the props. He and his staff supports our troops (Our morale has been raised a few times away from the US). Supports other countries with guidance dealing with football and camps over seas. No one in the country does what he does on that level. Kids play the game and reflect his blue collar approach. Hard work and a appreciation for the game I Love. He brung in a standard with him that the players fall into. We havent had the majority of kids focus on school and football since I have been following the school some 25 years. But his loyalty to his staff is frustrating but yet in still it is refreshing. Our coordinators have struggled a bunch. Play calling has been our down fall. Lack of game time adjustments, have been a nightmare. The thing is only so many opposing coaches will be able to take advantage of it. You look at all of the games not just the big ones. That is where we fall off a bit. We still recruit very well. We still produce some of the best players in the country every year. So to call us overated is dumb. Over rated is when a kid is a beast in college and then cant get no run in the pros. (ex. Peter Warrick, any Gator WRs, etc...)
I hope Pryor worked on his release because I think that was the hardest thing to see WR open then watch a DB recover cause the ball wasnt released early enough. But that kid is special. What is going to be exposed, Boss? He has NFL size, an NFL work ethic, and an NFL arm. To his credit he was at one time the #1 (small forward) and #1 Dual threat QB, (a year later) in the country. Not to many players in the past 20 years can say that... yeah alot of these kids are good but not that good. He is a born leader as he lead both his Basketball and Football teams to State chapionships. To be starting as a freshman at an elite program is cause enough to rejoice so you are off the mark big time Boss. It burns me up to hear someone dog a kid and not have a clue what they are talking about. Atleast, call out a guy that has a less than stellar resume.
Not sure of how we will finish but we were rebuilding the year we backed into the NC against LSU. So anything is possible. Just tell your team to win all their games they need to win, if they dont want to see us in the big game again. If they cant, regardless of their conference or schedule, they should be ashamed to be asking to play in the big game or crying about someone else playing in it...
As far as strength of schedule goes. It is not only your teams strength of schedule but also the teams they played. So like SEC speed said, When you play in the top Conference and then go out and all your non conference games are very weak teams and then they also dont win out it marks you down...
Well thats my 2 cents...
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I love how OSU gets a bad rep. its because VERY FEW SCHOOLS in this country can't say the wins OSU ACHIEVED every yr. BS about OSU losing 2 title GAMES....I can name you 75 SCHOOLS in D-1A that NEVER saw a title game. And OSU participated in 3 of the last 7 title games. 6 of the last 7 were BCS games were OSU won 3 out of 6 and beat OkSt in the Alamo Bowl. AGAIN with a new ALL-American BORN every year! You have to go back 20 yrs for the last time OSU finished under .500.
HATE Ohio St all you want, but HEY...we Ohioians are spoiled and proud of our Buckeyes! In the RUN for the National Title EVERY YEAR!!!! GO Bucks!
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Nobody in the big 10 has a chance at a national championship! The conference has fallen as of one of the elite football conferences over the past 3 or 4 years. I would say they are the 5th best football conference in the country right now. You see what happens every time they get matched up with the powerhouses from other conferences.
for example when powerhouse Flordia got the s_ _ _ out kicked out of them by Michigan in 07!!! give ma a break the big ten has more wins then any other conference out there.
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