Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

X-in' and O-in' with actual coach Tyler Sellhorn.

Fortunately for the Big Ten's postseason hopes, Penn State came out in the second half and eliminated any hope of Michigan continuing its first quarter heroics. Unfortunately for Nittany Lion backers, the PSU defense will not be able to ignore the quarterback in the running game against OSU and its power-packed backfield combo, Pryor and Wells. These things you already know.

The question you may be asking: whatever happened to quarterbacks handing the ball off and throwing? The short answer is that running with your quarterback allows you to stay in a spread formation and still run power running plays. Many "modern" offenses use three and four receiver-type players to execute their passing offense. The flip side of that coin is a poor power running game. If you are a solid, upstanding Midwesterner fully committed to sweatervests, scowls and your "three yards and a cloud of snow" offense, this is a problem. Both Penn State and Ohio State have solutions, but we're going to focus on The Answer for the Buckeyes: Terrelle Pryor.

Let's Talk Game Plan
Many times in Happy Valley last Saturday, Michigan was stuffed by the Penn State defense when the Lions mostly ignored the very pedestrian quarterback running "threat." When Steven Threet did keep the ball early, PSU was a little surprised, a step slow and out of position enough to yield a couple first down runs, including a 14-yarder (second play below) that set up a touchdown. Threet's plays were essentially a "power spread," where he plays the role of tailback with a running back leading through the hole -- in this case, into seven-man fronts with both safeties in pass-first position. Pay particular attention to middle linebacker Chris Colasanti Josh Hull (No. 43), replacing injured All-American Sean Lee, who's not having such a great game here in space:

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But Steven Threet running the ball does not constitute an offense, as Michigan found out quickly: the Wolverines gained 207 yards and scored 17 points on their first three drives, and were shut out while gaining 21 yards on their last nine. Michigan is struggling on the offensive line and has no functional passing game at the moment, and Threet is hardly a threat as a runner when the defense isn't caught off guard. The Wolverines' personnel limitations left them without answers after Penn State's initial round of adjustments.

Let's Watch Film
Terrelle Pryor on the other hand, can allow OSU to continue to stretch the field by formation (spread) and personnel (three or more receivers) on first-and-ten and second-and-medium while still running Jim Tressel's bread and butter between the tackles.

Tressel is a latecomer to the whole "spread" concept, but he's no fool. By employing his quarterback in the running game, power running from either the shotgun or the "Pistol" formation and counters off of the base running plays are pretty simple, especially with an asset on the order of Beanie Wells in the same backfield. When you establish that you're still going to ride your workhorse regardless of the formation --

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-- stopping Beanie remains defenses' first priority. On a pair of Pryor's biggest runs against Michigan State, for example, the Spartans lose contain by crashing down on Wells on the inside dive, allowing Pryor a free run to the outside, one-on-one with a tackler in the open field. It's not a bad scheme by MSU on a blackboard, except that in real life, Pryor in the open field against almost anyone is a mismatch in Ohio State's favor:

Penn State's traditional answer to the "spread option" has been to blitz the outside linebacker away from the play and have the backside end chase down the line of scrimmage to cut off the cutback lane. Power running with two-back (Pryor and Wells) and occasionally three-back (Pryor, Wells and another RB/FB) sets really puts Penn State under pressure to add the extra safety in the box (Wisconsin and Michigan State, you'll notice, each line up with only seven men in run-stopping position in these clips), and when that happens, the play-action passing game is definitely where defenses become most vulnerable -- Pryor is already a more dangerous passer than, say, Stephen Threet:

The only other offense the Lions have faced that offers anything like a dual threat in Pryor's mold is Illinois' Juice Williams, who led by far the best offensive effort of the season against PSU in terms of balance (189 rushing, 183 passing), yards (392) and points (24). Williams accounted for 247 yards, 64 on the ground, and threw for two touchdowns. The Illini were mostly undone by their defense's inability to hold up to Penn State's physical running game, which should be less of a problem for Ohio State.

Let's Make a Prediction With Terrelle Pryor taking snaps from the shotgun and Pistol and a fully healthy Beanie Wells carrying the mail, Tresselball has made a significant comeback and can certainly hope to match Illinois' production against the Lions at home. Look for OSU to bleed the clock and play superior defense and special teams Saturday night and hold on to win by less than seven.

- - -
Tyler Sellhorn is a former small college player and single-wing high school coach in Fort Wayne, Ind. Big thanks to Holly Anderson full pulling and editing clips of Penn State-Michigan and Ohio State-Michigan State games.

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58 Comments

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  1. bigboo's bro
    1. Posted by bigboo's bro Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:38 pm EDT

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    Hopefully the PSU defense will acquaint Pryor with getting hit hard and often.
  2. Eric K
    2. Posted by Eric K Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:54 pm EDT

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    No. 43 for Penn State is Josh Hull, not Colasanti. Not that it changes much, Hull did not have a good game regardless of what his name is.
  3. Sam @ WWAHT
    3. Posted by Sam @ WWAHT Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:16 pm EDT

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    Nice analysis of the offense. While I think this offense's prospects are exciting, two things are holding it back: the lack of a great offensive line (watch the Purdue game) and the lack of a real passing game. I believe we're averaging something like 14 passes a game. Unless Penn State rolls over and dies against the run game, that won't cut it.
    Just hope we keep it competitive.
  4. shubago
    4. Posted by shubago Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:21 pm EDT

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    That's all well and good, but what about the huge number of sacks Ohio State is giving up this year? 21 so far, that's 1 for every 8 passes attempted. And Penn State's defense isn't exactly Purdue's.
    Also as stated in the article, the only reason Michigan had success running was precisely because Penn State didn't pay attention to Threet to begin with. Obviously they will be expecting Pryor to make plays on the ground. Those rushing stats for Michigan look good on paper but in reality don't tell you anything about the mindset the PSU defense will have this week against a completely different offense.
  5. Dunk
    5. Posted by Dunk Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:50 pm EDT

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    Pryor and wells are doing the opposite of the DOW and are going to just get better and better each week. Last week the score was misleading and OSU's offense is hardly a juggernaut yet (Do we really think Hartline and Robiskie are as good as Ginn & Holmes). Like Hinton pointed out earlier this week- OSU got the ball for free 5 extra times for turnovers. They went up 21 early and that took away Ringer for the most part ( Only 19 carries! like half his average). I think the most interesting aspect is that both Defenses practice against a mobile QB so they should technically be prepared. Lots of zone read this week from both sides.
  6. James P
    6. Posted by James P Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:28 pm EDT

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    Great analysis, though you overlook the replacement of Threet with Sheridan.
    "the Wolverines gained 207 yards and scored 17 points on their first three drives, and were shut out while gaining 21 yards on their last nine."
    How many of the last nine were with Sheridan at QB? Thus, in game adjustments by Penn State's defense are statistically flawed. So what does that really tells us about Penn St. vs OSU? Not much. Perhaps you should have delved more deeply into OSU's closest analogue, Illinois. Juice and Dufrene = Pryor and Wells?
  7. Todd B
    7. Posted by Todd B Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:01 pm EDT

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    ohiostate 60
  8. nutso53man
    8. Posted by nutso53man Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:42 pm EDT

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    im a buckeye fan but i think this is paternos year to go all the way then retire!!!!
  9. Shawn
    9. Posted by Shawn Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:21 pm EDT

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    Ya last week wasn't the greatest game for the Bucks, they had the ball bounce their way to get blow out. Still getting better on defense every week. I see close game this week. If Penn State can weather the storm in the first & third quarter they have a shot, if not Ohio State could win by 10+. Cold Night in Columbus hurts PSU offence. (Along with OSU defence) OSU 24-PSU 16
  10. Marv
    10. Posted by Marv Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:59 pm EDT

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    One additional note regarding Michigan's lack of 2nd half success - Penn St. replaced Josh Hull and Tyrell Sales with the quicker and more athletic linebackers Mike Muati and Novarro Bowman. Both will see plenty of time against OSU. Also Penn State's strong corner play will allow them to play 8 in the box to stifle the Buck's running game. I would expect Tom Bradley to show everything from 8 man fronts to eight man drops with a variety of blitz and coverage schemes that Pryor just didn't see at Jeanette High. He will still be tough to contain, but a few MSU defensive missteps aside, this offense has not impressed at all (yet).
  11. jcsperson
    11. Posted by jcsperson Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:31 pm EDT

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    Posted by shubago
    That's all well and good, but what about the huge number of sacks Ohio State is giving up this year? 21 so far, that's 1 for every 8 passes attempted.
    Anytime the QB is tackled behind the line of scrimmage, whether the play is a pass or not, it is recorded as a sack. Since OSU runs many more QB running plays than most teams, it'll also have more "sacks" recorded against it. Even when the play IS a pass, Pryor has been holding the ball far too long due to inexperience. As his reads improve and he learns to improvise when scrambling, the sacks will go down. This OSU line isn't great, bit it's not awful.
  12. P
    12. Posted by P Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:56 pm EDT

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    Dan Connor is in the NFL, Brozeph. Sean Lee is the All-American out for the year w/ a torn ACL, whom Hull is replacing.
    Also, to the guy who said Novarro Bowman came off the bench along with Mike Mauti, you're mistaken.
    Bowman starts at OLB, it was Mauti and Gbadyu that replaced Hull and Sales.
    Know the facts, peeps.
  13. Todd B
    13. Posted by Todd B Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:01 pm EDT

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    Hi you ohio state 12 penn state 02
  14. Todd B
    14. Posted by Todd B Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:01 pm EDT

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    Hi you ohio state 12 penn state 02
  15. Matt
    15. Posted by Matt Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:47 pm EDT

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    Screw the analysis. At the shoe, on a cold rainy evening, I'd bet the buckeyes 27-14. Beanie will dominate!
  16. thigee
    16. Posted by thigee Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:06 pm EDT

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    I just dont see PSU being very effective against the OSU defense. As someone stated earlier, they have been getting better and better each week. I look for turnovers to be the factor of who wins or loses this game. Which ever team gets the +2 turnover margin is going to be the victor.
    (Go Bucs!)
  17. Go Bucks
    17. Posted by Go Bucks Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:56 pm EDT

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    Poor JoePa
  18. Fred L
    18. Posted by Fred L Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:05 pm EDT

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    Ohio State fan living in Michigan. Lots of fun bantering with Michigan fans but un-
    fortunatly for Michigan they just don't have it this year. I see a great game with Penn
    tomorrow and Ohio State winning handidly. GO BUCKS My brother in McDonald,Ohio
    is a great fan with all the parafanalia needed to show his support. Fred L
  19. nutso53man
    19. Posted by nutso53man Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:42 pm EDT

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    penn state 27 osu 24 then on to national championship game,this is jopas year,hes destined to win,i am from columbus and big buckeye fan but gotta call it like i see it,go bucks!!!!!!,also think paterno will retire after this season!!!
  20. nutso53man
    20. Posted by nutso53man Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:42 pm EDT

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    paternos gonna go to national championship game,all he has to do is beat osu,then plays patsies,think my buckeyes are goin down but hope not,just have a bad feeling about the game,joes gonna retire regardless,hes going on 82 yrs old,time to retire,hes going out on top though!!!,he wouldnt have it any other way!!!,good luck osu,youll need it
  21. A D
    21. Posted by A D Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:39 pm EDT

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    To address the sacks... As mentioned above, a lot of those are running plays. Also, I'd rather an inexperienced QB take a sack than throw it downfield. Pryor is doing a great job of eating the ball and not making a huge mistake by throwing it up for grabs.
  22. Joe Scheanon
    22. Posted by Joe Scheanon Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:06 pm EDT

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    Penn stat has played what good team??? its very easy to run up the score on a bunch of [profane]ty nobody's look what osu did to msu same thing will happen to penn its easy to say your good when you have only played one rank team that wasent even in the top 20 its was 22 all you penn fans will cry while i laugh as the O-H-I-O Bucs slaughter your beloved lions!
    and before the criticisms OSU played 3 ranked team and beat 2 of them less the unprepared game of usc
  23. S C
    23. Posted by S C Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:32 pm EDT

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    muhahahahaha OH-IO nuf ' said...
  24. John V. L
    24. Posted by John V. L Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:39 pm EDT

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    hey joe s...
    first, go bucks! second, did you really learn all your great grammer and punctuation in our wonderful government schools. come on. at least try.
  25. jimsha413
    25. Posted by jimsha413 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:35 pm EDT

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    What good team?
    Oregon State (Beat USC)
    Wisconsin (OSU only squeaked by in their outing)

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