Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

The Doc Saturday crew peruses the weekly lines and pulls out a few shockers.

Matt Hinton: East Carolina (+7.5) over North Carolina.
The Pirates haven't done much on offense in either of their first two games, which puts them in good company here: UNC was shut out and frankly beaten up for three quarters last week at UConn before waking up with a pair of scoring drives to eke out an ugly win. ECU had the opposite problem, fading in the second half against both Appalachian State, where the Pirates were able to hang on to win, and West Virginia, where they lost by two touchdowns despite going into the half trailing by only one.

That has to be disappointing, because this is essentially the same ECU team that upset Virginia Tech and West Virginia in back-to-back weeks to open last season, en route to the C-USA championship, which they were overwhelmingly favored to win again. The Tar Heels' own struggling offense gives the Pirates their best chance to hang around in a close, low-scoring game and pull out their requisite upset for the season.

Chris Brown:Tulsa (+17.5) over Oklahoma
I'm going to say the nightmare season continues -- or at least it is too close for the Sooners' comfort -- against Tulsa, even without the Hurricanes' offensive ace, former co-offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The "co-" is key: Herb Hand, himself a former Rich Rodriguez protege, is very good. More importantly, new quarterback G.J. Kinne (a Texas transfer) is emerging for Tulsa as a rusher and a passer, and I expect the Hurricane to score enough to force the hand of Sam Bradford's replacement, Landry Jones, who threw three touchdowns against I-AA Idaho State last week but struggled mightily against BYU.

These pseudo-rivalries can present some of the best upsets: If you asked a Sooner who its rivals were, they likely wouldn't mention Tulsa, but there's nothing the Golden Eagles would like more than to knock off its more prestigious neighbor. If Tulsa gets some breaks, it can steal this one outright.

Bonus pick: Louisville (+14) over Kentucky. This series usually turns right when you least expect it to, and, since neither offense should be that great, anything can happen.

Holly Anderson: Mississippi State (+9) over Vanderbilt.
The Bulldogs are coming off a loss, but how they ended up a 9-point dog to Vanderbilt is beyond me. En route to that loss, they managed to score 24 points against a historically stout Auburn defense, 17 of them in the first half. Vandy beat Western Carolina, not East Carolina, in Week One, which  shouldn't even count, and while they managed a respectable loss to LSU in Death Valley, I'm taking the Dan Mullen machine, because Auburn should rightly have blown them out last week. And the Lesser Bulldogs ought to enjoy it, because this will be their one, lonely conference win.

Doug Gillett: Michigan State (+10.5) over Notre Dame.
The only reason I can think that Notre Dame is getting double digits against State, even at home, is that the Spartans were just embarrassed at home by Central Michigan. But the Irish haven't beaten Sparty in South Bend since I was a junior in high school, and in spite of their fourth-quarter sputter against CMU, I think State has the defensive juice to keep Jimmy Clausen contained (and no, I can't believe I just typed those words) and put the team in position to win late.

Also: Middle Tennessee State (+6.5) over Maryland. The Terps lost by 10 to MTSU last year with a team that finished 8-5 and won a bowl game; this year they are demonstrably terrible, with a blowout loss to Cal on the west coast and an overtime shootout win over James Madison. The UMD defense has given up an average of 480 yards in those two games and will be facing a Blue Raider offense returning 10 of 11 starters, with the one "new guy" being a former backup QB who came off the bench to start half the '07 season and acquitted himself very nicely. This is shaping up to be a baaaad season for the Terps, with the one bright spot being that they'll soon enter the Bizarro World of the ACC, where even the doormats get to be kings for at least a week or two.

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18 Comments

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  1. Hamp T
    1. Posted by Hamp T Thu Sep 17, 2009 10:40 am EDT

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    Matt, If the Pirates strike when you least expect them to, and you kind of expect them to this weekend, shouldn't that tell us that it won't happen? File under "Never match wits with a Sicilian when death is on the line."
  2. DBB
    2. Posted by DBB Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:04 am EDT

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    Tulsa is the Golden Hurricane not the "golden eagles" and the sooners will stomp them at Owen Field.
    Just watch.
  3. DBB
    3. Posted by DBB Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:05 am EDT

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    Tulsa is the Golden Hurricane not the "golden eagles" and the Sooners will stomp them at Owen Field.
    Just watch.
  4. J.D.
    4. Posted by J.D. Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:06 am EDT

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    Michigan fan here. I spent last weekend watching the Michigan State-Central Michigan game and the Michigan-Notre Dame game. That said, I would be shocked - shocked! - if MSU comes within 2 TDs of Notre Dame.
    I hate to say it, but ND's WRs are dominant, Clausen is really accurate when he has time, and for the first time in his career, the line is showing signs of being able to give him time. ND is weak on defense, but State's offense looked really bad against CMU - no running game, questionable line, and an inexperienced (if promising) QB in Cousins. I can't see State putting up more than 24 or so on ND as an extreme maximum, and I'd be surprised if ND is held to less than 35. The math says ND is a safe pick on this one, assuming Charlie doesn't run out of food and mistake the playbook for a cruller.
  5. J.D.
    5. Posted by J.D. Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:08 am EDT

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    Michigan fan here. I spent last weekend watching the Michigan State-Central Michigan game and the Michigan-Notre Dame game. That said, I would be shocked - shocked! - if MSU comes within 2 TDs of Notre Dame.
    I hate to say it, but the Irish WRs are dominant, Clausen is really accurate when he has time, and for the first time in his career, the line is showing signs of being able to give him time. ND is weak on defense, but the Spartan offense looked really bad against CMU - no running game, questionable line, and an inexperienced (if promising) QB in Cousins. I cannot see State putting up more than 24 or so on ND as an extreme maximum, and I would be surprised if ND is held to less than 35. The math says ND is a safe pick on this one, assuming Charlie doesn't run out of food and mistake the playbook for a cruller.
  6. J.D.
    6. Posted by J.D. Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:08 am EDT

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    Michigan fan here. I spent last weekend watching the Michigan State-Central Michigan game and the Michigan-Notre Dame game. That said, I would be shocked - shocked! - if MSU comes within 2 TDs of Notre Dame.
    I hate to say it, but the Irish WRs are dominant, Clausen is really accurate when he has time, and for the first time in his career, the line is showing signs of being able to give him time. ND is weak on defense, but the Spartan offense looked really bad against CMU - no running game, questionable line, and an inexperienced (if promising) QB in Cousins. I cannot see State putting up more than 24 or so on ND as an extreme maximum, and I would be surprised if ND is held to less than 35. The math says ND is a safe pick on this one, assuming Charlie doesnt run out of food and mistake the playbook for a cruller.
  7. J. Sims
    7. Posted by J. Sims Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:27 am EDT

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    Could Maryland end up being terrible? Yes
    Is a close win against JMU and a big loss to Cal eveidence of that? No
    JMU is one of the best teams in1AA and Cal might be one of the best teams in the country this year...
  8. AstateEditor
    8. Posted by AstateEditor Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:23 pm EDT

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    As much as I liked your upsets specials last week, I'm not really feeling any of these. The only one that I think might happen is Holly's Miss St over Vandy pick. I think Dan Mullen will really have them rolling in a bit.
    Even though Maryland hasn't looked very good, I've got to believe they have thought about payback on the Blue Raiders for quite some time. I think they get it this week.
  9. Brian M
    9. Posted by Brian M Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:42 pm EDT

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    I wonder how many of the people pooh-poohing the possibility of Tusla beating Oklahoma have seen both Tulsa and Oklahoma play. I have to say, I don't think it's necessarily *likely*, but I think Tulsa's got a good chance to pull off a big upset here. Either way it should be fun to watch.
  10. A!
    10. Posted by A! Thu Sep 17, 2009 2:15 pm EDT

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    how can a Miss St victory over Vandy be an upset?!?!?!?!!?!?! the dogs won last year's game
    both are perennial cellar dwellers in the SEC.... With Tenn and Auburn waking up from their rut last year, MSU & VU will return to 6th in their divisions
    hardly a noteworthy game
    here's a game you guys missed Duke @ Kansas
  11. auburn3020
    11. Posted by auburn3020 Thu Sep 17, 2009 2:36 pm EDT

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    A quibble, Holly: State scored 10 points on the historically-stout Auburn defense, and seven on Auburn's pretty crappy special teams (blocked punt in the second quarter returned for a touchdown). That puts MSU in a bit more perspective...
  12. auburn3020
    12. Posted by auburn3020 Thu Sep 17, 2009 2:36 pm EDT

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    Woops, that should be 17 points (I was fixating on the first half)...
  13. Ian
    13. Posted by Ian Thu Sep 17, 2009 5:02 pm EDT

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    Where's Minnesota +13.5 over Cal? Cal's road record the last couple of seasons isn't all that great, Kevin Riley has a history of inconsistency under pressure, and Minnesota's in a brand new stadium. I don't know if I'd pick Minnesota to win, but they could certainly cover the spread.
  14. Ian
    14. Posted by Ian Thu Sep 17, 2009 5:02 pm EDT

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    Where's Minnesota 13.5 over Cal? Cal's road record the last couple of seasons isn't all that great, Kevin Riley has a history of inconsistency under pressure, and Minnesota's in a brand new stadium. I don't know if I'd pick Minnesota to win, but they could certainly cover the spread.
  15. ess-eee-seee
    15. Posted by ess-eee-seee Thu Sep 17, 2009 8:23 pm EDT

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    JSims, the degree of loss to Cal indicates likely terrible, while the key word for JMU is 1-AA. Decent D-I teams do not need OT against 1-AA opponents.
    When you are taking a nine point dog, it's an upset.
  16. ess-eee-seee
    16. Posted by ess-eee-seee Thu Sep 17, 2009 8:24 pm EDT

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    JSims, the degree of loss to Cal indicates likely terrible, while the key word for JMU is 1-AA. Decent D-I teams do not need OT against 1-AA opponents.
    When you are taking a nine point dog, it an upset.
  17. AstateEditor
    17. Posted by AstateEditor Fri Sep 18, 2009 3:14 am EDT

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    I agree about Cal-Minn. I think the Gophers might have an upset working there. It's also an 11 CDT kickoff, another big benefit towards Minnesota.
  18. The Half Yard
    18. Posted by The Half Yard Fri Sep 18, 2009 11:45 am EDT

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    Tulsa has a chance but Oklahoma has to play down to their level with mistakes and turnovers. The Sooners also don't lose much at home and usually, they aren't even challenged. Different circumstances with Bradford and Gresham out. Landry Jones is not atop the worry list. The Sooners desperately need a 2nd (and even a 3rd) receiver to emerge in this game. Unless Tulsa jumps out to a quick lead, the Sooners defensive line should be difference as the game goes on. I expect fewer points than most - 27-17 but the Sooners D will shut down Tulsa's offense starting mid 3rd quarter.

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