Thu Sep 17, 2009 10:11 am EDT
The Doc Saturday crew peruses the weekly lines and pulls out a few shockers.
Matt Hinton: East Carolina (+7.5) over North Carolina.
The Pirates haven't done much on offense in either of their first two games, which puts them in good company here: UNC was shut out and frankly beaten up for three quarters last week at UConn before waking up with a pair of scoring drives to eke out an ugly win. ECU had the opposite problem, fading in the second half against both Appalachian State, where the Pirates were able to hang on to win, and West Virginia, where they lost by two touchdowns despite going into the half trailing by only one.
That has to be disappointing, because this is essentially the same ECU team that upset Virginia Tech and West Virginia in back-to-back weeks to open last season, en route to the C-USA championship, which they were overwhelmingly favored to win again. The Tar Heels' own struggling offense gives the Pirates their best chance to hang around in a close, low-scoring game and pull out their requisite upset for the season.
Chris Brown:Tulsa (+17.5) over Oklahoma
I'm going to say the nightmare season continues -- or at least it is too close for the Sooners' comfort -- against Tulsa, even without the Hurricanes' offensive ace, former co-offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. The "co-" is key: Herb Hand, himself a former Rich Rodriguez protege, is very good. More importantly, new quarterback G.J. Kinne (a Texas transfer) is emerging for Tulsa as a rusher and a passer, and I expect the Hurricane to score enough to force the hand of Sam Bradford's replacement, Landry Jones, who threw three touchdowns against I-AA Idaho State last week but struggled mightily against BYU.
These pseudo-rivalries can present some of the best upsets: If you asked a Sooner who its rivals were, they likely wouldn't mention Tulsa, but there's nothing the Golden Eagles would like more than to knock off its more prestigious neighbor. If Tulsa gets some breaks, it can steal this one outright.
Bonus pick: Louisville (+14) over Kentucky. This series usually turns right when you least expect it to, and, since neither offense should be that great, anything can happen.
Holly Anderson: Mississippi State (+9) over Vanderbilt.
The Bulldogs are coming off a loss, but how they ended up a 9-point dog to Vanderbilt is beyond me. En route to that loss, they managed to score 24 points against a historically stout Auburn defense, 17 of them in the first half. Vandy beat Western Carolina, not East Carolina, in Week One, which shouldn't even count, and while they managed a respectable loss to LSU in Death Valley, I'm taking the Dan Mullen machine, because Auburn should rightly have blown them out last week. And the Lesser Bulldogs ought to enjoy it, because this will be their one, lonely conference win.
Doug Gillett: Michigan State (+10.5) over Notre Dame.
The only reason I can think that Notre Dame is getting double digits against State, even at home, is that the Spartans were just embarrassed at home by Central Michigan. But the Irish haven't beaten Sparty in South Bend since I was a junior in high school, and in spite of their fourth-quarter sputter against CMU, I think State has the defensive juice to keep Jimmy Clausen contained (and no, I can't believe I just typed those words) and put the team in position to win late.
Also: Middle Tennessee State (+6.5) over Maryland. The Terps lost by 10 to MTSU last year with a team that finished 8-5 and won a bowl game; this year they are demonstrably terrible, with a blowout loss to Cal on the west coast and an overtime shootout win over James Madison. The UMD defense has given up an average of 480 yards in those two games and will be facing a Blue Raider offense returning 10 of 11 starters, with the one "new guy" being a former backup QB who came off the bench to start half the '07 season and acquitted himself very nicely. This is shaping up to be a baaaad season for the Terps, with the one bright spot being that they'll soon enter the Bizarro World of the ACC, where even the doormats get to be kings for at least a week or two.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

RivalsMinute: Record-breaking performance
Posted Dec 21 2009
Posted Dec 21 2009
Posted Dec 21 2009
Edited by MJD
Edited by 'Duk
Edited by J.E. Skeets
Edited by Greg Wyshynski
Edited by Matt Hinton
Edited by E. Brennan
Edited by Jay Busbee
Edited by Jay Busbee
Edited by Steve Cofield
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Chris Chase
Edited by Andy Behrens
18 Comments
1 - 18 of 18
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Just watch.
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Just watch.
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I hate to say it, but ND's WRs are dominant, Clausen is really accurate when he has time, and for the first time in his career, the line is showing signs of being able to give him time. ND is weak on defense, but State's offense looked really bad against CMU - no running game, questionable line, and an inexperienced (if promising) QB in Cousins. I can't see State putting up more than 24 or so on ND as an extreme maximum, and I'd be surprised if ND is held to less than 35. The math says ND is a safe pick on this one, assuming Charlie doesn't run out of food and mistake the playbook for a cruller.
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I hate to say it, but the Irish WRs are dominant, Clausen is really accurate when he has time, and for the first time in his career, the line is showing signs of being able to give him time. ND is weak on defense, but the Spartan offense looked really bad against CMU - no running game, questionable line, and an inexperienced (if promising) QB in Cousins. I cannot see State putting up more than 24 or so on ND as an extreme maximum, and I would be surprised if ND is held to less than 35. The math says ND is a safe pick on this one, assuming Charlie doesn't run out of food and mistake the playbook for a cruller.
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I hate to say it, but the Irish WRs are dominant, Clausen is really accurate when he has time, and for the first time in his career, the line is showing signs of being able to give him time. ND is weak on defense, but the Spartan offense looked really bad against CMU - no running game, questionable line, and an inexperienced (if promising) QB in Cousins. I cannot see State putting up more than 24 or so on ND as an extreme maximum, and I would be surprised if ND is held to less than 35. The math says ND is a safe pick on this one, assuming Charlie doesnt run out of food and mistake the playbook for a cruller.
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Is a close win against JMU and a big loss to Cal eveidence of that? No
JMU is one of the best teams in1AA and Cal might be one of the best teams in the country this year...
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Even though Maryland hasn't looked very good, I've got to believe they have thought about payback on the Blue Raiders for quite some time. I think they get it this week.
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both are perennial cellar dwellers in the SEC.... With Tenn and Auburn waking up from their rut last year, MSU & VU will return to 6th in their divisions
hardly a noteworthy game
here's a game you guys missed Duke @ Kansas
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When you are taking a nine point dog, it's an upset.
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When you are taking a nine point dog, it an upset.
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1 - 18 of 18