Thu Sep 24, 2009 10:43 am EDT
The Doc Saturday crew peruses the weekly lines and pulls out a few shockers.
Chris Brown: Washington (+7.5) over Stanford.
Both teams enter the game 2-1. One lost to LSU by eight, beat Southern Cal and crushed Idaho. The other beat Washington State and San Jose State and lost to Wake Forest by ten. I know the game is at Stanford, but don't you think the team that beat the program of the decade and lost respectably to LSU would be favored over a squad whose resume consists of two cupcake wins and a loss to a team led by Riley Skinner? Maybe I'm missing something, and maybe Steve Sarkisian's Huskies are due to lay a huge letdown-infused egg, but I don't see why they're a touchdown underdog. I'll take the Huskies.
Bonus: Louisville (+14) over Utah. The Cards covered for me last week in defeat and seem improved, while Utah didn't look so hot against Oregon. Two touchdowns seems an excessive spread for the Utes.
Matt Hinton: Bowling Green (+16.5) over Boise State.
As the relatively huge line suggests, this is not an upset you can work out logically -- Boise State, historically, just does not lose games it's not supposed to lose, and certainly BSU shouldn't lose to the 1-2 Falcons. I wouldn't consider picking against the Broncos on the blue turf, where they remain nigh unbeatable.
But Boise also demonstrated in its wild shootout at Fresno State last week that it's vulnerable to giving up big plays on defense, and if there's one area Bowling Green can definitely keep up, it's in the passing game: Tyler Sheehan is putting up better than 300 yards per game through the first three and sparked the opening-day upset over Troy and the near-miss (or, as George Carlin would say, the near-hit) the following week at Missouri; Sheehan also had 383 yards last week despite BG only scoring 10 points in a loss at, uh, Marshall. Admittedly, the Falcons are hopeless in the running game, but back at home, they should be able to keep pace with Boise through the air, and are probably the most dangerous remaining threat to the Broncos' run at their fourth 12-0 regular season in six years. That may not be much, but that's why they call it an upset, people. Work with me here.
Doug Gillett: Southern Miss (+14) over Kansas.
If the good doctor won't take his alma mater to upset Kansas [I would never risk the hubris – ed.], what the hell, I will. Yeah, Southern Miss got wayyyy more than its fair share of challenge from an awful Virginia squad last week, but as lead-ins go, I'll take "stirring come-from-behind win over bad opponent" over "beat Duke and then spent the rest of the week fighting with the basketball team." It's a big if, I realize, but if USM did indeed get a wake-up call from the close UVA win, then their experienced secondary will give the Jayhawk passing attack the first real test it's seen all season long. And as KU's schedule gets tougher, I think we'll see its weakness on the offensive line get exploited more and more.
Holly Anderson: Michigan State (+3) over Wisconsin.
The Sparties have played two good teams (Central Michigan and Notre Dame) to the wire, and lost twice by a total margin of 5 points. How Wisconsin is 3-0 is beyond me. (Oh, wait, it's because they've played Northern Illinois, Fresno State and Wofford at home, and only got out of the first two in the final seconds, by a combined margin of 11 points. Don't exert yourselves on our account, Badgers.) The wheels are gonna come off this thing for sure against Ohio State and Michigan, but Wisconsin started 0-4 in the Big Ten after another suspect 3-0 run last year, and nothing the Badgers have done so far has convinced me it's not all going to hell in a handbasket again.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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10 Comments
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Cost of Steve Sarkisian's bathroom - $???
Look for the Harbaugh's well-comforted bowels to make the difference in this one. Stanford wins straight up.
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http://dubsism.wordpress.com/2009/09/23/steve-sarkisian-%e2%80%93-a-star-is-born/
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1. Washington hasn't proven their worth on the road.
2. Washington has a long way to go before they have a winning mentality.
3. Harbaugh has done a lot more to improve Stanford than the Washington Wunderboy. ("OBVIOUSLY" Its Ty's great recruiting that earned the win over the team of the decade . . . . ba dum bum)
4. Road Game + Big Win Hangover = Washington in the tank
Stanford wins by 10.
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Even a crappy team (UW) can win if the other team (USC) constantly hands the ball to them.
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Last week she called a Miss St win over Vandy an upset http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Upset-Bait-Pirates-always-strike-when-you-least?urn=ncaaf,190217 (see post #10).
Don't be fooled by their records. Mich St is 1-2 while Wisconsin is 3-0. These two teams are equals in the pecking order of their conference. Difference is in their opponents thus far this season: Notre Dame (on the road) and Central Mich are considerably tougher than Fresno state and Northern Illinois at home.
If that isn't enough, look at the spread...... its THREE POINTS.
Indiana over Michigan WOULD be and upset... but its not going to happen.
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