Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Pete Carroll on Saturday night, victorious for the ninth weekend in a row, but also resigned:

Here's the nature of the system that Carroll doesn't understand, doesn't endorse and only exasperatingly accepts: In the first BCS computer poll released this morning, Jeff Sagarin's, Carroll's team is ranked seventh, behind not only Oklahoma, Florida and Texas, but also Utah, Texas Tech and Alabama, and only one spot ahead of Boise State. That's the official score (the "ELO_CHESS," as Sagarin dubs it) in this week's standings. But even Jeff Sagarin doesn't believe that. In the section of the rankings he dubs the "Predictor," his mathematical prediction at what would happen on the proverbial neutral field, Southern Cal ranks second behind only Florida, and would be a double-digit favorite against Utah, Texas Tech and Alabama, three of the teams in front of the Trojans in the ELO_CHESS.

Even among a specialized audience with an intense interest in college football, I suspect most readers here have no idea what the "ELO_CHESS" is, or why it matters. But, like Pete Carroll, you know it doesn't feel right. USC's defense has held 10 of 12 opponents to 10 points or less; ranks No. 1 nationally in total, scoring, pass and pass efficiency defense, and fifth against the run; is in the top 20 nationally in rushing, total and scoring offense, as well as pass efficiency; has a 3-1 record against Sagarin's top 30, the same as Florida, Texas, Texas Tech and Alabama; and joins Florida as the only teams in the nation winning by 30 points per game. Virginia, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington State, Washington and Notre Dame -- fully half of USC's schedule -- all suffered their most lopsided loss of the season at the hands of the Trojans.

This is not an appeal for USC to play in the mythical championship game, because it frankly doesn't have the overall strength of schedule, and Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, Penn State and Utah all have equally compelling resumés. In SC's case, there was not enough meat on the bone in the last two months to overcome a bad first half against Oregon State. Under the system, only two teams can play for the so-called title, and in that context, USC's exclusion -- and Penn State's, and Utah's, and Texas Tech's and, yes, Texas' too -- is justified.

Under any fair assessment of how well teams are actually performing on the field, it makes no sense whatsoever. Even the computers think USC would trounce most of the teams they rank in front of it. I do too, in the informal "Predictor" in my head. Texas would also stand a very good chance, and I'm not so sure Penn State would fall by the wayside very quickly.

Not that I have idea how this would actually play out, but that's the point: I do know that all of these teams seem about as good as the two destined for Miami on Jan. 8, and that the factors separating them -- while not arbitrary -- are so small as to be completely absurd as barriers for exclusion. So as we begin a month of obsession over the relative merits and demerits of Oklahoma and Florida and their championship prospects, don't be fooled into thinking these are "the two best teams" in the country, or whatever it is. If that title can honestly exist at all, it's not waiting at the top of the ELO_CHESS.

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  1. Bratanako
    1. Posted by Bratanako Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:54 pm EDT

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    This BCS thing is so freaking bull [profane]!!!
  2. Bratanako
    2. Posted by Bratanako Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:54 pm EDT

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    There's no way the gators and the sooners are better than USC! I'm not even gonna watch their game because that's just freaking wrong that they're picked to play for the NC and not USC. I know USC will beat both the gators and the sooners if USC were to play them.
  3. MaxwellL
    3. Posted by MaxwellL Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:12 pm EDT

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    hey brat, i bet you were pretty sure USC was gonna beat the Beavers too, eh?
  4. Steve
    4. Posted by Steve Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:25 pm EDT

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    Now Brat, your missing the point. I'm an SC fan but I don't know that they would beat either Florida or Oklahoma. I also don't know that they wouldn't beat them. That's the point of Dr. Saturday's whole post, that know one really knows which of these teams would beat each other in a playoff, which is why the BCS doesn't "feel right" in excluding Texas, USC, Penn State, Utah, etc.
  5. man29
    5. Posted by man29 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:05 pm EDT

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    And I bet you were pretty sure they would beat Texas when ya'll had lionhart and run out of bounds reg bush..lol..Usc is a good team with great stats but they have no real argument..they lost to a no name school and that's a fact..And you can't over look that..And your probably right they would beat Ou or maybe even florida..But you had better not said Texas..Cuz last time we played ya'll we made history..Best game of all-time..Texas fight
  6. pisgah
    6. Posted by pisgah Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:06 pm EDT

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    Given the abysmal level of scholarship in the big 12 and sec, this should be called the national daycare center championship. At least USC will be playing an actual university. USC-Penn st. will be the University championship. Oklahoma daycare vs. daycare of florida will be the semi-literate garbage school championship.
  7. George
    7. Posted by George Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:36 pm EDT

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    The Pac-10 is pathetic, the University of Spoiled Children shouldnt be ranked in front of other 1-loss teams, the only way (like ohio stae and penn state) could go to the top would be through an undefeated season...they lost and should deal with it..utah actually BEAT oregon state (tough concept to grasp, isnt it trojan fans???) and beat more ranked teams than usc did this season and should be ranked ahead of...i'm tired of the "well the trojans would beat this team so they should be ranked ahead of"...that argument has numerous holes...yes, we know theat usc has the most talent in the nation-all-americans backing up all-americans, but shouldsnt get rewarded because they have more talent than all these other teams and should win...usc should not be rewarded just b/c it is usc (and im finally glad to see that its not the case this year)
  8. man29
    8. Posted by man29 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:05 pm EDT

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    post 4..glad you put Texas first because out of all the teams we got shafted the most...I'm ready for a playoff..lol..That would kill the NFL's playoff..College football games are up for grabs when 2 good teams show up with "A" games..I love college football.
  9. man29
    9. Posted by man29 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:05 pm EDT

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    post 7..your point is right..If you didn't when you should just shut up..lol
  10. man29
    10. Posted by man29 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:05 pm EDT

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    didn't win the close games you shouldn't be rewarded at the end when you still have undefeated teams out there..And some good 1 loss teams
  11. Steve
    11. Posted by Steve Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:25 pm EDT

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    @man29
    Oregon State is a "no name school"? They have been to 4 straight bowl games and are on their way to a 5th. they won the Fiesta Bowl this decade. This is "no name"? If thats true then what is Ole Miss or Iowa? They both have the same record as OSU. Just because you say a team is "no name" doesn't make it so.
  12. OKSC
    12. Posted by OKSC Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:01 pm EDT

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    USC played a weak schedule. nuf said
  13. Chase Stuart
    13. Posted by Chase Stuart Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:06 pm EDT

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    You're correct that USC handed the worst loss of a team's season to six of its opponents; when you factor in home/road, you can bump that number to 8 by adding in Arizona and Stanford.
    That's really good, but it's actually not even tops in the country.
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=780
    That was written mid-week, before the Gators obviously handed Alabama its worst loss of the year. Against 12 division 1 opponents, Florida handed 10 of them their worst losses of the season.
  14. Steve
    14. Posted by Steve Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:25 pm EDT

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    @ OKSC
    And that's their fault? They have 9 conference games a year, plus the annual ND game. So they only have 2 open spots that are under their control. They could go soft and schedule freebies like Citadel and App state. Instead, they went to Virginia and hosted OSU.
    To everyone talking about schedule strength, schedules are made years in advance. Its hard to know just how good or bad a team is going to be years down the road. Just ask Texas, they played Arkansas this year. Last year it would have been a marquee matchup which might have propelled them passed Oklahoma in the BCS standings. Instead they got a cupcake game that did little to help their case. Was it their fault that Arkansas was terrible? Of course not.
  15. Soonerrae
    15. Posted by Soonerrae Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:26 pm EDT

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    Pete Carroll and USC should concnetrate on Jo Pa and forget these "shootout" BIg 12 gunslingers.
    Boomer Sooner! Soonerrae (alumni, OU, '88)
  16. Jacob S
    16. Posted by Jacob S Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:05 pm EDT

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    Markian, academics?? really?? Granted ole miss and some of the schools in the SEC are pretty bad, but UGA and UF are pretty respectable these days. USC is a good school, but so is UF (maybe not as good, but I go to Harvard now and Im not calling USC a daycare because they aren't as good). Learn your facts before you spout off bs based upon your own misguided prejudices about the SEC. Don't let the notion of rednecks brand an entire conference... thats just ignorant.
  17. man29
    17. Posted by man29 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:05 pm EDT

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    post 11 they are no names to us..(Texas)..you couldn't match them with Texas..lol..Texas would blow them out..like I said a no name school..And yes iowa and ole miss are no name schools..schools that haven't done much when it comes to being a big time program like Texas.. Usc got what they got from texas a couple of yrs ago..And that took some of the hype away from Usc...matt lionhart and reggie left usc with a over rated tone with the loss too real heisman Vince Young..The one of the greatest college football players of all-time..Usc still needs to hand over that heisman cuz reggie you know he took money
  18. The World Famous Butt Pirate
    18. Posted by The World Famous Butt Pirate Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:03 pm EDT

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    This championship game will be interesting to see what happens when oklahomo plays against a 'defense' for the first time. They haven't developed such things in the big 12 yet.
    Jeff Sagarin should be hung, drawn, and quartered.
    Hinton looks like the Unabomber.
    Oh yeah, 'Soonerrae,' when you're referring to yourself, it is 'alumnus' or 'alumna' or simply 'alum.' "Alumni" is plural.
  19. TheDukester
    19. Posted by TheDukester Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:25 pm EDT

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    Anyone who ever says that "USC plays weak schedule" is just completely embarrassing themselves with their lack of college football knoweldge.
    USC plays a very competitive schedule ANNUALLY (for you graduates of SEC and Big 12 schools: that means "every year"). This year is no exception: nine conference games (in the ONLY conference that plays a full round-robin schedule); a 2,500-mile trip to play a Virginia team that won nine games last year; Ohio State, which played in the last two national championship games; and Notre Dame, which represents the only remaining meaningful intersectional game in all of college football.
  20. LongTrans
    20. Posted by LongTrans Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:54 pm EDT

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    Playoffs man! Playoffs!!! USC has a GREAT team right now. They did the same thing Oklahoma did, and that is to dominate opponents. I wish we, (Texas), could at least play USC again. At least that would be fun for both teams and fans. Instead we're having to play the poster child, (Ohio State). What crap. Oh well, at least Oklahoma and Florida will be a good game, or it should be at least. Go Sooners, bring the championship to the Big 12, (ouch, that kinda hurts me to say that).
  21. Steve
    21. Posted by Steve Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:25 pm EDT

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    @man29
    I can't decide if your posts are gibberish or worthy of James Joyce.
    I'm really confused by you. Your a Texas fan. Texas just got jobbed by the BCS. Why? For bascially the same reasons you claim USC is unworthy of even being mentioned in the same breath as "mighty" Texas. Texas would blow out Oregon State, the team which narrowly beat USC? Probably. Just like Oklahoma blew out Texas Tech, a team which narrowly beat Texas. USC couldn't win the "close game"? Neither could Texas. I figured you would realize these teams are basically in the same boat, but I guess you'd have to look past your overwhelming bias.
    As for the 05 Rose Bowl, yes it was one of the best games ever and a well earned victory by Texas. Does that mean Texas is forever better than USC? No. USC beat Oklahoma 55-19 the year before, does that mean they are forever better than the Sooner? No. Teams exist for one year at a time. Since that last second, 3 point Rose Bowl loss, USC has won 3 consecutive conference titles, had 3 straight Rose Bowl trips, and finished in the top 4 every year. They seem to be doing just fine.
  22. Steve
    22. Posted by Steve Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:25 pm EDT

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    @ LongTrans
    Agree 100% about how great a Texas-USC game would be. To bad were stuck with this system.
  23. SpartanDan
    23. Posted by SpartanDan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    Dukester: Nine conference games that happen to include Washington, Washington State, Stanford, and Arizona State?
    USC's schedule is decent, but it doesn't compare to Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, or even Texas Tech's this year.
  24. JosephineTX
    24. Posted by JosephineTX Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

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    I really wanted to see Texas play USC this year, too...would've been so much better than playing Ohio St. Oh well. I still think all the BCS games will be fun to watch. I'm looking forward to seeing whether Utah can beat Alabama. But it's just not as satisfying as seeing them all go to a playoff.
  25. seattlefan
    25. Posted by seattlefan Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:11 pm EDT

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    As a graduate of Florida and USC (bachelor's then master's) the relative academic merits of both schools are a wash. Continuing to argue that "We're smarter than you are" is old-hat and makes you look all the more ignorant. As far as the system, I don't see anyone on here defending the BCS, so until you can defend it, stop trying to defend the merits of one team over the other. No one can clearly say who can beat who, and it won't be decided until we have an elimination playoff (not regular season games).
    The fans clearly want a playoff, and the powers that be clearly want the money.
    Then again, if we all stopped talking about our teams, then the blogosphere may just collapse.

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