Sun Dec 07, 2008 1:13 pm EST
Pete Carroll on Saturday night, victorious for the ninth weekend in a row, but also resigned:
Here's the nature of the system that Carroll doesn't understand, doesn't endorse and only exasperatingly accepts: In the first BCS computer poll released this morning, Jeff Sagarin's, Carroll's team is ranked seventh, behind not only Oklahoma, Florida and Texas, but also Utah, Texas Tech and Alabama, and only one spot ahead of Boise State. That's the official score (the "ELO_CHESS," as Sagarin dubs it) in this week's standings. But even Jeff Sagarin doesn't believe that. In the section of the rankings he dubs the "Predictor," his mathematical prediction at what would happen on the proverbial neutral field, Southern Cal ranks second behind only Florida, and would be a double-digit favorite against Utah, Texas Tech and Alabama, three of the teams in front of the Trojans in the ELO_CHESS.
Even among a specialized audience with an intense interest in college football, I suspect most readers here have no idea what the "ELO_CHESS" is, or why it matters. But, like Pete Carroll, you know it doesn't feel right. USC's defense has held 10 of 12 opponents to 10 points or less; ranks No. 1 nationally in total, scoring, pass and pass efficiency defense, and fifth against the run; is in the top 20 nationally in rushing, total and scoring offense, as well as pass efficiency; has a 3-1 record against Sagarin's top 30, the same as Florida, Texas, Texas Tech and Alabama; and joins Florida as the only teams in the nation winning by 30 points per game. Virginia, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington State, Washington and Notre Dame -- fully half of USC's schedule -- all suffered their most lopsided loss of the season at the hands of the Trojans.
This is not an appeal for USC to play in the mythical championship game, because it frankly doesn't have the overall strength of schedule, and Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, Penn State and Utah all have equally compelling resumés. In SC's case, there was not enough meat on the bone in the last two months to overcome a bad first half against Oregon State. Under the system, only two teams can play for the so-called title, and in that context, USC's exclusion -- and Penn State's, and Utah's, and Texas Tech's and, yes, Texas' too -- is justified.
Under any fair assessment of how well teams are actually performing on the field, it makes no sense whatsoever. Even the computers think USC would trounce most of the teams they rank in front of it. I do too, in the informal "Predictor" in my head. Texas would also stand a very good chance, and I'm not so sure Penn State would fall by the wayside very quickly.
Not that I have idea how this would actually play out, but that's the point: I do know that all of these teams seem about as good as the two destined for Miami on Jan. 8, and that the factors separating them -- while not arbitrary -- are so small as to be completely absurd as barriers for exclusion. So as we begin a month of obsession over the relative merits and demerits of Oklahoma and Florida and their championship prospects, don't be fooled into thinking these are "the two best teams" in the country, or whatever it is. If that title can honestly exist at all, it's not waiting at the top of the ELO_CHESS.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

Posted Feb 3 2010
RivalsMinute: Bama wins the title
Posted Feb 3 2010
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Edited by MJD
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Edited by Matt Hinton
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Edited by Jay Busbee
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Edited by Chris Chase
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Edited by Andy Behrens
48 Comments
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Oregon State is a "no name school"? They have been to 4 straight bowl games and are on their way to a 5th. they won the Fiesta Bowl this decade. This is "no name"? If thats true then what is Ole Miss or Iowa? They both have the same record as OSU. Just because you say a team is "no name" doesn't make it so.
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That's really good, but it's actually not even tops in the country.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=780
That was written mid-week, before the Gators obviously handed Alabama its worst loss of the year. Against 12 division 1 opponents, Florida handed 10 of them their worst losses of the season.
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And that's their fault? They have 9 conference games a year, plus the annual ND game. So they only have 2 open spots that are under their control. They could go soft and schedule freebies like Citadel and App state. Instead, they went to Virginia and hosted OSU.
To everyone talking about schedule strength, schedules are made years in advance. Its hard to know just how good or bad a team is going to be years down the road. Just ask Texas, they played Arkansas this year. Last year it would have been a marquee matchup which might have propelled them passed Oklahoma in the BCS standings. Instead they got a cupcake game that did little to help their case. Was it their fault that Arkansas was terrible? Of course not.
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Boomer Sooner! Soonerrae (alumni, OU, '88)
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Jeff Sagarin should be hung, drawn, and quartered.
Hinton looks like the Unabomber.
Oh yeah, 'Soonerrae,' when you're referring to yourself, it is 'alumnus' or 'alumna' or simply 'alum.' "Alumni" is plural.
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USC plays a very competitive schedule ANNUALLY (for you graduates of SEC and Big 12 schools: that means "every year"). This year is no exception: nine conference games (in the ONLY conference that plays a full round-robin schedule); a 2,500-mile trip to play a Virginia team that won nine games last year; Ohio State, which played in the last two national championship games; and Notre Dame, which represents the only remaining meaningful intersectional game in all of college football.
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I can't decide if your posts are gibberish or worthy of James Joyce.
I'm really confused by you. Your a Texas fan. Texas just got jobbed by the BCS. Why? For bascially the same reasons you claim USC is unworthy of even being mentioned in the same breath as "mighty" Texas. Texas would blow out Oregon State, the team which narrowly beat USC? Probably. Just like Oklahoma blew out Texas Tech, a team which narrowly beat Texas. USC couldn't win the "close game"? Neither could Texas. I figured you would realize these teams are basically in the same boat, but I guess you'd have to look past your overwhelming bias.
As for the 05 Rose Bowl, yes it was one of the best games ever and a well earned victory by Texas. Does that mean Texas is forever better than USC? No. USC beat Oklahoma 55-19 the year before, does that mean they are forever better than the Sooner? No. Teams exist for one year at a time. Since that last second, 3 point Rose Bowl loss, USC has won 3 consecutive conference titles, had 3 straight Rose Bowl trips, and finished in the top 4 every year. They seem to be doing just fine.
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Agree 100% about how great a Texas-USC game would be. To bad were stuck with this system.
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USC's schedule is decent, but it doesn't compare to Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, or even Texas Tech's this year.
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The fans clearly want a playoff, and the powers that be clearly want the money.
Then again, if we all stopped talking about our teams, then the blogosphere may just collapse.
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