Hey Jenny Slater's Doug Gillett offers weekly gambling advice without bias, malice, or credibility. Or, you know, money.

We're a little over halfway through the season, and the Wannabe Wagerer -- with the brief assistance of noted World War II historian Lou Holtz -- is 16-13 against the spread. Not great, but since I started to put my insubstantial money where my substantial mouth is, I'm up $12,957.69 in exciting prizes and other merchandise (most of the damage, of course, from betting Nikki Meyer's SUV on Florida minus seven and a half over Tennessee). This would be the point any sensible gambler would quit while he's ahead, but if you've been following this feature at all, you know “sensible” isn't a word that typically appears within a hundred miles of me. So damn the torpedoes, let's get to wasting ... uh, that is, wagering:

The Pick: Alabama (-6.5) at Tennessee
I'm Willing to Bet: Inflatable Alabama tailgate tent from Sunbelt Inflatables
Approximate Value: $1,300
As dominant as Alabama has been at certain points on its unexpected run to 7-0, their attention has looked a bit, er, diffuse about as often over the last few weeks. Against Georgia, Kentucky, and Ole Miss, Bama outscored their prey by a total of 69-3 in the first half, only to fall asleep and get outscored 61-13 after halftime. That second-half narcolepsy, combined with the unfriendly confines of Neyland Stadium, must be what has prompted the oddsmakers to install the Tide as a mere touchdown favorite over the hapless Vols this weekend.

That might seem realistic, too, if I thought for one second Tennessee had the offensive firepower to mount the second-half comeback Alabama's last three opponents threatened to. But the Vols' offense has been one-dimensional in even the most manageable circumstances -- in their last three games combined, they've rolled up 209 rushing yards, and at a pitiful 2.4-yards per carry -- so if Alabama builds up another one of its Costco economy-sized first-half leads and forces Tennessee to the air, it's open season on mewling quarterback Nick Stephens, with or without injured nose tackle Terrence Cody. Recall that the Florida-Tennessee game in Knoxville a few weeks ago also had the Vols as only a touchdown 'dog, but quickly turned into a laugher even with Florida's offense at three-quarters speed at best. Another effort like the one in Gainesville means an easy Alabama cover. The best Phil Fulmer can hope for is that Bama is so comfortable after two quarters, it settles down in this suh-weet tailgate tent for some turkey, Franzia and the nap of all naps for the second half.

The Pick: Duke (+9.5) at Vanderbilt
I’m Willing to Bet: Two center-court tickets to Duke-Xavier at The Meadowlands' Aeropostale Classic
Approximate Value: $259
The Great Nerd Uprising of ’08 has lost a bit of its luster, as these two formidable academic institutions went a combined 7-1 over the first five weeks of the season but are only 1-4 since. Still, the fact that anyone at all is talking about this game shows you just how far over their typical Mendoza line the Blue Devils and Commodores are flying at the moment: both are very much alive for their first bowl bids in eons. With five scalps already attached to their belt, the ’Dores are the more likely of the two to earn a postseason invite, but their last two games -- a somnolent loss to truly awful Mississippi State and a never-really-out-of-it-but-never-really-in-it-either loss to Georgia -- are starting to dredge up memories of all those other Vandy teams that started seasons in promising fashion but coughed up their chances for a bowl invitation at every opportunity.

Teams might be catching on to the fact that Vanderbilt really isn’t that good, as long as you force them to be the turnover machine. Along those lines, Duke has the nation’s eighth-best turnover margin, not to mention a quarterback, Thaddeus Lewis, who’s more or less thrived under QB guru David Cutcliffe (just ask Tennessee how valuable he is). I can’t quite bring myself to predict a third straight Vandy stumble here, but after the last couple weeks I can’t bring myself to picture them covering a 10-point cushion, either. I’ll take Duke plus the points and put a pair of basketball tickets on it, since that’s all Duke fans really care about anyway.

The Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+11.5) at Mississippi State
I’m Willing to Bet: Antique iron cowbell
Approximate Value: $115 at GoAntiques.com
I must be crazy to pick any bet involving either MTSU (beat Maryland, nearly knocked off Kentucky, couldn’t stay within two TDs of Arkansas State) or Mississippi State (hasn’t beaten a D-IA team all year, with the exception of 5-0, ranked Vanderbilt), much less both. But let’s look at the facts here. The Blue Raiders have been thorns in the side of major-conference opponents, going 19-11-1 against the spread versus "Big Six" teams over the past 10 seasons (including a 10-7-1 mark against the SEC). Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s offense is such a disaster that they aren’t even averaging 11.5 points against I-A competition, much less beating any of them by that margin. This is going to get ugly. Take MTSU and the points, and don’t be surprised to see an outright Blue Raider upset if MSU’s Tyson Lee keeps throwing touchdowns to the wrong team. Of course, if the Croomdawgs do succeed in grinding out the win, that's just all the more excuse to take a few jubilant whacks on that rural classic, the cowbell, a great find whether you're looking at a wild Saturday afternoon at Davis Wade Stadium or just a quiet evening of channeling Blue Oyster Cult at home.

The Pick: Navy (-13) vs. SMU
I’m Willing to Bet: Decommissioned F-14 Tomcat
Approximate Value: $4,000, if you know the right people
What do you get when you take an institution in one of the nation’s largest urban areas, a fertile recruiting base, an impossibly rich booster community, and add a successful coach? If you’re SMU, the answer is “Still not much,” even when the coach in question is a guy who once took Hawaii from 0-12 to 9-4 in a single year. I’m just planting seeds here, but the Mustangs’ problem may be their defense, currently allowing more than 500 yards per game and ranked next to last in Division I-A; they’re only marginally better (110th) against the run, and if you’ve paid even the slightest bit of attention to Navy football over the last decade or so, you can see what a disaster this game is shaping up to be for June Jones’s team. Expect the Middies’ triple-option-wish/flexbone-O-matic offense to run over, under, around, and through the ’Stangs, who have yet to hold any of their opponents this year, even Texas State-San Marcos, below 30 points. The real question isn’t whether Navy can cover two TDs on SMU (they can), it’s whether SMU can hold Navy under 400 rushing yards. For most of the second half, I imagine even June Jones will be wondering what palms he can grease, laws he can stretch, and right back rooms he can stretch them in to leave Annapolis in one of these winged bringers of death.