Mon May 18, 2009 6:34 pm EDT
Breaking down the preseason favorites.
Hide the women and children, and most of the men. Last year's offense was either the harbinger of a new, break-neck era of high-scoring spread passing games, or a spectacular anomaly that may not be matched for decades. The Sooners set the modern standard with 716 points, 51 points per game, six straight games over 58 points to close the regular season, etc. OU's lowest-scoring game before the championship loss to Florida was 35 points, and even with the deflating 14-point effort in the finale, gained more yards (363) against the Gators than anyone except Georgia (another talented offense done in by turnovers -- UGA scored just 10 points on Florida).
So, yeah, returning the Heisman Trophy winner is a positive, especially when he's led the nation in pass efficiency each of his first two seasons, as Sam Bradford and his amazing 86:16 career touchdown:interception ratio have. Other than Bradford, co-1,000-yard rushers Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray, all-everything tight end Jermaine Gresham and top returning wideout Ryan Broyles (only No. 3 last year) combined in '08 for 60 touchdowns. I don't know that 50 points per game is a reasonable mark for anyone, but given the usual margins here (10 of 12 wins were by at least 20 points), 45 per game will probably serve them just as well.
All the ways you will disappoint us. Statistically, it's easy to rip the defense -- 68th in total D, 58th in scoring, 52nd in yards per play, atrocious numbers by national championship standards -- but it wasn't that bad in context. Those marks were actually well above average by high-flying Big 12 standards (third, second and first in the conference, respectively), and OU was solid on defense in its big games down the stretch, holding the prolific units from Texas Tech, Missouri and Florida to their lowest point totals of the season; ditto another top-25 offense, TCU, earlier in the season. Give me nine starters back from that group -- all but the two safeties, plus potential all-conference types DeMarcus Granger, Auston English and Ryan Reynolds, returning off lingering injuries -- and I'm willing to count this one as more than adequate.
The offensive line, though, is another matter altogether. The starting five -- the same starting five for nearly every meaningful snap the last two years -- amassed 179 career starts and made Sam Bradford among the best-protected men in America on an average day. Three of them, Phil Loadholt, Duke Robinson and Trent Williams, were first-team All-Big 12; center Jon cooper was second-team. Loadholt and Robinson both went in the draft.
From that, all that remains is Williams and a lot of ominous vibes from the Wall Street Journal -- and, more importantly, from Bob Stoops, who publicly lit into his big guys at the start of spring drills for lagging "attitude" and "work ethic" over the winter. Since Jason Hannan, the top-ranked center prospect in the nation in 2007, decided to transfer last month, none of the noobs except likely left guard Brian Simmons even has the distinction of having been a particularly hyped recruit.
Stumbling blocks. There's Texas, and Texas, and -- wait, did I mention Texas? You have the requisite "watch out" games against Texas Tech (where OU has lost on consecutive trips in 2005 and 2007) and Oklahoma State and a trip to Nebraska, but the Longhorns were all that stood between America and a USC-style assault deeming the Sooners the greatest team ever? last fall. And then there was the tiebreaker, and the 45-35 campaign, etc., and the fact that Texas is Texas, and the winner on Oct. 17 becomes the instant favorite to play Florida or USC in the mythical championship game.
Unlike the Longhorns, though, Oklahoma is probably in position to sustain a respectable loss in the first half of the season -- just like last year -- because the Sooners should have the non-conference pelts on the wall to salvage another strong strength of schedule: Neither BYU, Tulsa nor even Miami may be much of a threat to actually pull an upset, but with the right breaks at the end, they might be strong enough to overcome a lapse at, say, Kansas or Nebraska. A division loss, because Texas will probably run the table if it gets out of Dallas unscathed, and because Texas Tech and Oklahoma State fall at the very end of the schedule, as usual, will be much, much tougher to overcome.
Visions of champions past. The last high-octane passing offense with a pocket-bound, award-winning quarterback and a new-found reputation for losing the big game was 1999 Florida State, which bounced back from losses to SEC powerhouses in the '96 and '98 championship games to run the table in '99. (Yes, comparing junior Sam Bradford to junior Chris Weinke is a compliment.) I was struggling to place the Sooners' version of Peter Warrick, but in terms of production, who needs just the one guy? Gresham had more yards for more touchdowns and a higher per-catch average last year than Warrick did as a Heisman candidate 10 years ago, and Murray is about as dangerous in the return game.
One thing I can't find in the last 15 years: A national champion with such glaring inexperience on the offensive line.
Crystal ball says ... The fact that decent pass-rushing defenses have managed to disrupt Bradford behind the huge, nearly inviolable line he's operated behind the last two years is really concerning if you assume this line will take at least half the season (and probably more) to look anything like its predecessor, if it can come close. The defense will be better, but with the kind of offensive heroics the Sooners will face from the rest of this conference -- Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas and maybe Nebraska are all top-20/25 attacks -- Bradford will have to be upright for another string of shootouts. Nothing can sink a team faster than the offensive line, so as good as everything else looks here, I still give OU a red siren when it comes to No. 1 until they effective block someone of substance.
out of five.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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i don't think there is any reason to nit pick. anyway there is a difference between a top 5 o lineman and a top 5 overall nationally hyped recruit. also top 5 lineman is a bit deceiving. habem was the no 3 center and good the no. 7 tackle. i think we would agree that neither were top 5 linemen and definitely no where near top 5 overall. hey..nit picking is fun after all.
i don't think he threw your line under the bus. he is just making the very fair point that teams with such inexperienced lines don't tend to fare well.
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