Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Breaking down the preseason favorites.

Hide the women and children, and most of the men. Virtually everyone who stepped on the field for last year's championship defense is back -- all told, Florida loses six-and-a-half tackles with the early departure of backup defensive tackle Torrey Davis. Nine of the returning starters will be front-liners for the third year in a row, holdovers from the much-maligned 2007 group that rebounded to finish in the top-10 in total and scoring D through last year's title run, matching their crystal-hoisting predecessors in 2006 and setting themselves up to rival Alabama in '09 as the best defense in the SEC. Maybe (probably) in the nation. The Gators gave up an SEC-best 12.9 points per game, down almost two touchdowns from 2007; maybe this time they shoot to bring that number below double-digits, which only three other teams have managed this decade.

The really unfair part of the equation, of course, is that -- very much unlike Alabama, or Virginia Tech, or any other likely defensive juggernaut -- Florida is just as likely to push the standard in the other direction with nine returning starters on offense. The combination of dominance on both sides of the ball last year (in all three phases, really, considering UF also blocked eight kicks/punts and scored three special teams touchdowns) was really rare:

The only one of those teams that brought back the following year anything resembling the core Florida returns this fall was Miami, which went 12-0 and was late one pass interference call away from repeating as champ in 2002. And the 'Canes' quarterback was Ken Dorsey.

All the ways you will disappoint us. Ummm ... well, among Torrey Davis' six-and-a-half takedowns was the most important tackle of the season. Otherwise, this is a short segment.

Obviously, the offense doesn't lack for playmakers, but as I've pointed out before, there's no replacing Percy Harvin's versatility and ability to hurt a defense from any position in any formation, anywhere on the field. Yes, Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps and Brandon James are top-shelf speedsters, and Emmanuel Moody (when healthy) gives the backfield a non-Tebow presence between the tackles it hasn't had under Meyer. But when Harvin was hurt against Alabama in the SEC Championship, those four guys combined for 84 yards in an overwhelmingly Tebow-inspired comeback, and then for just 20 yards against Oklahoma, where Harvin went for 171 and delivered by far the two longest gains of the night for either team.

Aaron Hernandez should be a possession guy par excellence, but combine Harvin's early exit with the graduation of leading receiver Louis Murphy, and there's more than a little potential for issues to develop in the downfield passing game, the threat of which has always opened up the running game for Tebow and Co. Deonte Thompson and Carl Moore, heretofore mere role players, have some pretty substantial hype to live up to.

Stumbling blocks. Aside from the brutal opener against Charleston Southern, there aren't many more dangerous places than Baton Rouge. But the trip to LSU may be the one game the Gators can afford to lose and still work their back into one of the top two spots by the end of the year -- they'll have a month and a half to make the climb, with only one serious threat (Georgia, in an apparent rebuilding year) before a final push in the SEC Championship game.

Realistically, though, UF might be a double-digit favorite in every game. Outside of the tussle with LSU on Oct. 10 and the December date in the Georgia Dome, the main issue will be avoiding cruise control against, say, Arkansas, or anyone else that might sneak up the way Ole Miss did last September. Last year's schedule offered eight other bowl teams as victims to help climb out of that hole; this slate, with Vanderbilt and possibly Kentucky descending, probably won't be that generous.

Visions of champions past. The last No. 1 team to return an unusually telegenic, Heisman-winning quarterback and the vast majority of his supporting cast from a championship win over Oklahoma in Miami was USC 2005 -- which, you'll note, was not technically a championship team, thanks to the Rose Bowl loss to Texas. The better analogy might be USC 2004, which was also coming off a championship (albeit in the AP poll, not the BCS) and fielded a much stronger defense than its successor while still racking up 450 yards per game, a hair over Florida's average (445) last year. The catch: Minus Harvin, the Gators have no apparent stand-in for Reggie Bush or Dwayne Jarrett.

Since my first thought was USC 2005, though, and I've already made the comparison to Miami 2002 earlier in the post, I should make this note: The only other outfits this decade that returned such a feted, star-studded core from a championship team the previous year both wound up losing the return trip to the title game in the final seconds as a relatively heavy favorite, with a nearly unbeatable senior quarterback. They also both survived early, razor-thin calls against seemingly overmatched rivals -- Florida State for Miami, Notre Dame for USC -- that should have been warning signs. If, say, Georgia pushes the Gators to the final gun, consider that a legitimate chink in the armor.

Crystal ball says ... I saved Florida for last in the series because it's just so obvious. The Tebow Child is one thing, but putting him opposite this defense, with or without Percy Harvin, is not fair. I'd like to be contrary -- believe me -- but other than to point out "look what happened to these other awesome, all-time great teams at the last second," I wouldn't know how. If this team doesn't meet your standards for a preseason favorite, none ever will.
out of five.

- - -
Previous Contenders: Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Virginia Tech, USC.

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  1. Captain BooHoo
    1. Posted by Captain BooHoo Fri May 29, 2009 9:57 pm EDT

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    The #1 reason Florida is likely to repeat? It's their schedule. Only one road game that could be considered difficult, but I don't believe in LSU this year, so I won't even give them that, though considered the SEC recently got promoted to the job of Jesus of College Football, I assume others will. Georgia wasn't very good with Stafford and Moreno (anybody else remember the preseason #1 almost gag against lowly Michigan State in Capital One Bowl?) and without those two, they'll be riding their undeserved SEC-reputation this year. Tennessee is the Wisconsin/Boston College/Oklahoma State of the SEC, they beat the weaklings, lose to the good teams, an pull an occasional upset. Ole' Miss as a top ten team? Hopefully that ridiculous farce dies by week 3, though I have the feeling the SEC's Jesus-hood will drag it out a little long. Alabama isn't on the schedule, but assuming they play them in the champ. game, I'm sure even a school full of Floridians can follow the roadmap Utah laid out for dismantling the SEC's best defense.
    Last year, this Florida team could only put up 24 against an Oklahoma defense that gave up 26 to Cincinnati, 45 to Texas, 31 to Kansas, 35 to K-State, 28 to Nebraska, 28 to A&M, and 41 to OSU. And the was WITH Percy Harvin and played in-state. Turn them tables on them and put them in California without a top playmaker to play USC and they are going to get absolutely crushed.
    The gators may run through their joke of a non-conference schedule, their overrated conference (I know, GASP, the SEC is overrated? But at this point, through the never-ending screaming of its obnoxious fans/toxic coaches/members of the media sick of being harrassed by said obnoxious fans, the SEC has risen to the stature of part-Viking myth, part-savior, part-killer whale, so yes, it's safe to say it's overrated. Blame in on Web 2.0, the New Media, whatever, no team or conference has ever reached this level of extreme annoyance/braggadocio, but all this is a side point) anyway....if Florida gets to the mythical NCG, it won't be because they are the best team, it will be due to the perfect combination of an easy schedule and vastly-overrated competition. Come on SEC homers, let's hear it, give me your nonsensical ramblings, your results-oriented arguments, your terrible transitive logic, and your cookie cutter I-read-this-on-a-message-board-that-was-quoting-a-guy-who-saw-it-on-ESPN analysis. I eagerly await it all.
  2. youngrobert33
    2. Posted by youngrobert33 Fri May 29, 2009 10:37 pm EDT

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    this is a scary team. reminds me of some team of the 1990's that should of had 4 straigth national titles. Dont see a team that could or can stand in there way.
  3. Cavalier2718
    3. Posted by Cavalier2718 Fri May 29, 2009 10:38 pm EDT

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    PITTSBURGH IS GONNA BE NATIONAL CHAMPIONS!!!!!!!!!! Florida would get absolutely wooped to the scrappy PANTHERS!!!!!!! nah just playin Florida will probably repeat unless some major injury happens to some of their key players. I love PITT but itll be a while b4 we start competing for championships again lol but i wouldnt be surprised if Texas made some noise this year they got a pretty good team this year. but my prediction is Florida gets it done this year and Tebow leaves Gainesville with a bang!!!!
  4. J
    4. Posted by J Fri May 29, 2009 10:39 pm EDT

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    I didn't think Florida was number 1 last season... why would I think it now?
  5. Kyle p
    5. Posted by Kyle p Fri May 29, 2009 10:40 pm EDT

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    As the Gator Nation continues winning, people will continue hating. It's alright, because at the end of the day, the scoreboard will do the talking. GO GATORS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  6. J
    6. Posted by J Fri May 29, 2009 10:42 pm EDT

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    I didn't think Florida was number 1 last season... why would I think it now?
  7. IloveIndianFoodMD
    7. Posted by IloveIndianFoodMD Fri May 29, 2009 10:46 pm EDT

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    I think USC has been the best team in the country since 2002. If they ever lost, it was because they beat themselves. Given the opportunity, they would have at least 2 more national championships in that time period. Florida has gotten lucky in that it hasn't had to play USC. With Pete Carroll at the helm, and and month to prepare for the bowl game, USC has been essentially unbeatable. Who did Florida lose to a couple years ago--Michigan?
    USC has been superb against the SEC. No matter what happens, I think the pundits and critics agree that a matchup between USC and Florida even if both schools have a loss, deserve to fight it out to be the team of the decade. USC deserves it. Florida has gotten lucky.
    I also think that PAC-10 play is more competitive than the SEC. Unfortunately with the pro-SEC media bias and Yahoo's anti-USC slant, USC has suffered. USC lost 1 game away last year to a competitive team that finished well in the PAC-10. Florida lost 1 game at home last year to a lower opponent. Yet, how come Florida was in the national championship game?
    Matt Hinton, please stop your anti-USC and anti-PAC-10 bias. And please tell your Yahoo colleagues to do the same. It's not good that a reputable site like yours needs to do this to attract attention.
  8. Zucchini Flash
    8. Posted by Zucchini Flash Fri May 29, 2009 11:02 pm EDT

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    Yeah, Florida is a scary good team. The only thing I se that could keep them out of the NCG is injuries. They do seem to have bad luck in that area. Over preparing and stretching the envelope on their physical abilities could be their downfall. But without Harvin, the whole game plan will have to change. With the offensive backfield they have, I wouldn't be surprised to see them use the old full house. Nobody has used that in decades and they would be undefendable with the defenses colleges are using now.
  9. Kyle p
    9. Posted by Kyle p Fri May 29, 2009 11:04 pm EDT

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    AP--- Florida lost to a "lower opponent"?? what did Ole Miss do to Texas Tech? Ole Miss may have been an unknown at the time of the upset, but look how they finished the season.
  10. Ram Jam
    10. Posted by Ram Jam Fri May 29, 2009 11:08 pm EDT

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    Eyes wide open. Are you kidding me? What conference from top to bottom has been better than the SEC over the past decade? SEC # 1 , Big 12 # 2 , #3???
    Florida's defense shut down one of all time best offenses in college football history in the championship game. All 11 starters are back. Offense wins games, defense wins championships.
    I agree that Florida's schedule is soft this year; but like Bill Murray says that in Meatballs, "it just doesn't matter, it just doesn't matter!! Gators vs the Big 12 Champ in the NTG.
  11. EzE
    11. Posted by EzE Fri May 29, 2009 11:10 pm EDT

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    Gator nation baby!
  12. Rex
    12. Posted by Rex Fri May 29, 2009 11:30 pm EDT

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    Hokies!!!!
  13. Kurt
    13. Posted by Kurt Fri May 29, 2009 11:37 pm EDT

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    no this team doesn't fit my mold for a preseason favorite. of last season's one loss teams, the best was not even considered. oklahoma and florida would have lost big to the best one loss team in college football. and we forget there was only one team that went undefeated and no credit is being given to them either. the two best football teams of 2008 did NOT go head to head. penn state would have blown out either team. utah would have blown out either team. usc would have just killed them. sorry matt hinton but when a college team plays high school caliber teams, they had damn better win. oops didn't florida lose to one? oh what a shame.
  14. indian_brownie
    14. Posted by indian_brownie Fri May 29, 2009 11:39 pm EDT

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    Georgia tech fool!!!!!!!!!!!! option offense 4 life!!!!!!!!!!!!
  15. Gary
    15. Posted by Gary Fri May 29, 2009 11:58 pm EDT

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    Florida is a great team but Bama will take it to them this year.Don't be fooled by the way the season ended for Bama,they outplayed the gators for most of the game(SEC title) and the game against Utah, they just weren't up for it when your not playing for the national championship. no excuses Florida was the champs but Bama will be the champs. ROLL TIDE
  16. Ryan D
    16. Posted by Ryan D Sat May 30, 2009 12:00 am EDT

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    Penn State?????? When is the last time the Bad 10 won a BIG game? Penn State would have gotten shut out against the Florida D. I'm not even a Florida fan and it was pretty obvious that there defense couldn't be scored on. The same would have happened to USC...they wouldn't be able to score. Florida has to much speed and good schemes that takes advantage of that speed. And how is a team that won the NTG and returns pretty much everyone not the favorite? It actually is a good thing we don't have a playoff system because people would be [profane]in because two SEC teams would be in the NTG 7 out of 10 years.
  17. Ryan D
    17. Posted by Ryan D Sat May 30, 2009 12:04 am EDT

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    Penn State???? And A P championship teams don't beat themselves against teams that barely pull off a winning season in a sub-par conference most years.
  18. Garrett M
    18. Posted by Garrett M Sat May 30, 2009 12:14 am EDT

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    texas should be the number 2 team, only because they did not have the oppurtunity(which they would have won) to play ole florida. florida was and might be an awesome team this year, and the game b/w texas and florida woulda been a game for the century. in texas of favor of course. how is any body going to say f tebo, i mean i cant stand florida, but at the same time its respect that should be given. he is a hell of qb, a qb just doesnt throw the ball he controls the entire game on both sides of the ball. which tebow and colt mccoy do at the highest level of college football.
  19. Randy A
    19. Posted by Randy A Sat May 30, 2009 12:28 am EDT

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    you idiot like one guy said earlier what con. has more top 25 teams from start to finish of season for the past say 20 seasons. and if you want to talk about USC play somebody worth bragging about, one to two teams out of that con. makes it to the top 25 every year where the SEC has five to six. and yes i do think Utah should have played in the champ. game against Fl. or Ok. and if USC played Fl. they better play them in the cold. im from Fl. and out here in Ca. the weather isn't the same 110 here fells like maybe 80 back home. that is one of the reasons Fl. beat Ohio in 06' and Ok. had problems last year. and all the other cons. that beats the SEC they play one team and focus on that game so they can say they beat a team from the SEC, play the SEC week in and week out and most of the teams won't be in the top 25 for long the SEC is bigger,stronger,and faster in every position .
  20. Randy A
    20. Posted by Randy A Sat May 30, 2009 12:37 am EDT

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    erik and who are you for and don't make me laugh
  21. Kurt
    21. Posted by Kurt Sat May 30, 2009 12:40 am EDT

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    i have to laugh at all of you who think florida is a good team. THEY HAVE NO REAL COMPETITION!!!! when are you going to get it through your heads? the great miami teams of yore never went against any real competition. 20 years later it is the same story. the sec never plays any real teams other than themselves. high school teams will lose against real college teams. sorry but it's just a fact. as miami would have lost 20 years ago, florida will lose today if they ever played a real team. as eyes wide open said 24 points against a team that allowed more than 25 against even low rated teams. florida was lucky to have taken the championship home. heck they were lucky to have been in the game. they didn't belong there in the first place. sorry rhino florida would have been killed by.. well you name them. my high school alma mater would have beaten them. they were lucky and that's all there was to it. once college football is judged by the merits of the team rather than the bias of the reporters we might have a real championship game. utah was undefeated and belonged there. neither florida nor oklahoma did. usc played better than either team and florida lost to an unrated team. give it up that they won because they were the best. they won because the best weren't in the game.
  22. Randy A
    22. Posted by Randy A Sat May 30, 2009 12:41 am EDT

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    everybody wants to hate the GATORS why because their team sucks.
  23. Randy A
    23. Posted by Randy A Sat May 30, 2009 12:49 am EDT

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    KD -- i have to laugh like i said before take the best team you can think of and put them in the SEC and play the best of the SEC week in and week out and they won't be the same team you thought they was.
  24. Randy A
    24. Posted by Randy A Sat May 30, 2009 12:50 am EDT

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    don't get me wrong penn state is a good team inn the cold but in the heat????
  25. Randy A
    25. Posted by Randy A Sat May 30, 2009 12:54 am EDT

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    don't get me wrong penn state is a good team in the cold but in the heat????

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