Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

With upset bids from Oklahoma, Missouri and Oklahoma State emphatically quashed over the last three weeks and championship runs by fellow powerhouses like USC and Ohio State out of the question, all that's standing between Texas and the BCS title game in the Rose Bowl is holding court over its last five games. For the record, those games are against Central Florida, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M (combined record against teams from "Big Six" conferences: 5-12) and the annual patsy from the North Division in the Big 12 Championship, which hasn't come within two touchdowns of the South champ since 2003 and looks weaker than ever this year. The path to Pasadena is so clear, the hometown Austin American-Statesman is already offering advice for Longhorn fans more concerned with securing a seat than cursing their team with premature hubris:

"We've seen a jump in bookings to Los Angeles and Burbank after every Texas win," Southwest spokeswoman Ashley Rogers said. "The biggest was after the Oklahoma win."
[...]
Jon Berry, who works at Square 1 Bank downtown, already has his plane tickets to California and a welcome to stay with friends in Los Angeles.

Berry also has reserved the right to buy a game ticket at the $275 face value using the official Pasadena Tournament of Roses Web site. He paid $90 for that right, before the season began. As of Thursday, reservations to buy end zone seats were going for $520 and up.

The last sentence of the article -- "The Longhorns take on the University of Central Florida at 11 a.m. Saturday at Royal-Memorial Stadium" -- plays almost like a punch line in its irrelevance. Who are we kidding with this Central Florida/Baylor/Kansas charade? By any realistic standard, Texas is playing against itself from here on.

And it should be noted that the 'Horns have consistently lost that battle -- three years in a row, Texas has entered November with long winning streaks and major goals intact, and blown games as a significant favorite down the stretch all three years. In 2006, UT rebounded from an early loss to No. 1 Ohio State to beat Oklahoma and was steaming toward a national title shot before being suddenly upended at Kansas State, then knocked from the Big 12 Championship game by Texas A&M in the regular season finale, relegating the Longhorns to the Alamo Bowl instead; in 2007, they blew a five-game win streak and a BCS shot with another stunning loss to A&M in Dennis Franchione's last game with the Aggies. Last year, of course, riding high at No. 1 after putting away the Oklahoma-Missouri-Oklahoma State trifecta in October, UT was done in at the last second by Texas Tech, and never recovered in the polls as Oklahoma hit the gas over the last four weeks. In fact, if there's a theme to Colt McCoy's otherwise brilliant tenure as the Longhorn quarterback to date, certainly the "inexplicable November choke" has replaced "Vince Young's shadow."

Not that this team's pending ascension to the title game isn't worth putting a few hundred bucks on, if you're dead set on accompanying it out: The defense, last year's Achilles heel, has added a real throat-stomping streak that, along with the still-dominant offense and consistently dangerous return game, has made Texas both the highest-scoring team in the country and the one with the widest average margin of victory at 28.2 points per game. All of which makes Texas nearly identical to last year's championship outfit from Florida (though not this year's much less explosive edition of the Gators) and likely two-touchdown favorites, minimum, in all of their remaining games. These 'Horns haven't given any indication that they're the self-destructive type.

Still, there's going to be local product Todd Reesing putting up 40-plus passing when Kansas comes back to his hometown in two weeks, and suddenly rejuvenated Texas A&M gunning for (probably) its eight victory and a winning conference record in College Station on a short turnaround on Thanksgiving night. Then the Big 12 Championship, where the Longhorns blew a championship shot back in 2001. All menial tasks en route to the promised land, of course, but if they get too far ahead of themselves, also the stuff nightmares are made of.

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  1. Alexander
    1. Posted by Alexander Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:21 pm EST

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    It does not matter. Texas will lose to either Florida or Alabama. My pick is Florida. Honestly the Big 12, Big 10, and Pac 10 cannot compete with the SEC elite. Period.
  2. BasketballFan88
    2. Posted by BasketballFan88 Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:33 pm EST

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    Wow I didn't realize that Texas has choked a way a few National Title Shots. Kind of embarrassing if you think about it for the Horns.
    However like the Yankees. All is forgotten with the proverbial "what have you done for me lately?"
  3. Ancient Chinese Secret
    3. Posted by Ancient Chinese Secret Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:51 pm EST

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    I think we could see a rerun of the classic 2005 Big XII Championship this year. That was the most lopsided game I can remember watching. I believe Texas beat Colorado 70-3, and it wasn't that close.
  4. servo1013
    4. Posted by servo1013 Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:58 pm EST

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    Mmm, five-game win steak.
  5. shoff2323
    5. Posted by shoff2323 Fri Nov 06, 2009 1:17 pm EST

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    It amazes me how a team that has only played two ranked teams can be considered a national champion. Florida, the #1 team has only played one. Alabama at least has played 4. Teams like USC will by seasons end have play 5 ranked teams. Only Oregon, a ranked team, has beaten them. (the other they beat themselves) Oregon will end up playing 4 ranked teams with thier only loss to coming from a ranked team Boise, which only played one. IT sickens me where entire programs design thier schedule around being able to be in the BSC champoinship game and not really caring if they are truely the best program out there. (can you say Florida and Texas?)
    It seems that the whole system is flawed....duh....when teams that have a schedule where 80% of thier games are against inferior opponents are considered the nations best. What a joke. If we want to really have a true BSC, teams need to play at least half thier games against powerhouse teams. Otherwise go to a playoff system.
  6. Mat
    6. Posted by Mat Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:00 pm EST

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    Shouldn't Texas be punished in the rankings for that pillowy-soft finishing schedule?
  7. Amos
    7. Posted by Amos Fri Nov 06, 2009 2:19 pm EST

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    @shoff2323
    Why don't you go lookup Florida's strength of schedule back in the '06 run to the national championship? IIRC, according to the NCAA we had the #1 SoS in the country before playing tOSU.
    This year, you do realize that 4 out of 5* unbiased computers also have Florida 1st, with the 5th placing them second? These are computers that can't use MoV and don't get distracted by big names, the main thing they're all trying to accomplish is analyzing SoS and placing it against record. So while you feel that the most important thing to do is play teams being ranked by the human polls, I'll be content with playing simply good teams.
    *- Richard Billingsley does not count.
  8. Matt C
    8. Posted by Matt C Fri Nov 06, 2009 3:07 pm EST

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    The 2006 & 2007 Texas teams simply weren't very good. Yeah, they won a lot of games, but they were nowhere near the level of this team. Their defense in 2006 was very spotty, and it caught up to them at Kansas State. Colt McCoy shouldn't have been playing against A&M that year for a neck injury he suffered against K-State. 2007 might be Mack Brown's worst Texas team. Just a woeful sophomore slump by McCoy followed by a dreadful performance in College Station by both sides of the ball.
    Texas will take care of business at home. The trip to College Station worries me, but not as much as Stillwater or Columbia or for that matter Dallas did. Then the Big 12 Championship game will be another home game for them with Texas fans already buying those tickets and the North not even sure which of 5 teams will go yet.
    A calculated risk, for sure, but not really the same as '06 or '07.
  9. genius_man16
    9. Posted by genius_man16 Fri Nov 06, 2009 3:37 pm EST

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    I'm glad to see that the SEC homeboys are as objective as ever #1.
    It's funny how winning the NCG a few years in a row suddenly means that no matter what you are unbeatable and nothing can change that. We all see what happened to Nebraska after the 90's didn't we?
  10. David S
    10. Posted by David S Fri Nov 06, 2009 8:08 pm EST

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    Yes, genius_man16 sometime soon the SEC will crash to earth. Maybe this year, or maybe another one or two. But it's coming. The Big 10, Big XII, and PAC10 will bring the hammer down consistently, and the rest of the world will laugh at their worthless cracker asses.
  11. Jacob
    11. Posted by Jacob Sat Nov 07, 2009 2:12 am EST

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    Bama will win out.
    Texas may or not win out until the National Title game - it doesn't matter. The further they get without winning the big one, the tougher the loss is. I hope they lose the National Title game or the Big 12 title game.
  12. Michael
    12. Posted by Michael Tue Nov 10, 2009 4:18 pm EST

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    The SOS argument is just as flawed as the BCS that you are all whining about. First, if you are going to whine about SOS, you need to include both sides of the equation. 1) who did the team in question schedule? and 2) who did the team in question TRY to schedule? Unless you even have a clue as to how scheduling is done (I have a limited understanding) - most of the time you are blowing absolute smoke. So who do you blame for Utah and Arkansas apparently backing out of games against Texas? I notice that, when it suits the Boise State crowd, they like to point out they are trying to upgrade their schedule but bigger schools won't play them. Doesn't Texas have the same excuse this year? A lot of the bigger schools probably have similar stories to the Texas/Ark/Utah issue. Even if you can agree to a national standard on scheduling protocol, SOS is still a "what if" guessing game. Who saw Utah going in and dominating Bama last year? Hell, who saw NW beating Iowa, or Purdue beating both OSU and Blue? Or if Team 1 plays a stronger schedule than Team 2 but both are still clear favorites in every game - who cares? They both beat teams they should have... Bottom line - SOS arguments are lame and usually a crock of sheeyot. Stop wasting breath on that crap and just get us to where we will end up anyway - hopefully before I die - an 8 team (or more) play-off. You can still argue SOS in a limited playoff - but it becomes secondary and not so many people will whine about it.

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