Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Programming note: We be live bloggin'! The Thursday night live chat will be on as usual tonight, 7:30 p.m. Eastern, for North Carolina's attempt not to keep it together at Virginia Tech.

If last Thursday's home date with Florida State was a a referendum on the direction of North Carolina's season, the results came back with a resounding consensus: "Into the ground." The Heels not only left with a bad taste in their mounts from a dreadful second half collapse after leading FSU 24-6 in the third quarter, but dropped to 0-3 in the ACC with their third straight conference loss and continue to languish among the worst offenses in the nation. If that heartbreak didn't bring UNC to its knees, it certainly left it groggy for the knockout blow by Virginia Tech, which has been nigh unbeatable in Thursday home games against teams not quarterbacked by Matt Ryan.

T.J. certainly has not been that; as a third-year starter, Yates is the lowest-rated regular passer in the conference with a dreadful 2:5 touchdown:interception ratio in ACC games at the helm of arguably the least potent passing attack in the league. The departure of career starters Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Tate and Brooks Foster has left an acute void in the receiving corps; Yates' two most frequent targets, Greg Little and running back Shaun Draughn, are averaging less than eight yards per reception, and his favorite early deep threat, freshman Erik Highsmith, has three catches for 16 yards since the calendar turned to October. Yates has been sacked 10 times in the last three games, including five takedowns by Georgia Southern. UNC is only a month removed from a place in the top 20, but you'd never guess that from the totally broken offense in the meantime.

The positive spin for Carolina, statistically, is that its defense is still very much together -- the Heels lead the ACC in total and scoring D, in fact, significantly better than Bud Foster's vaunted Hokie defense on both counts. It's a much harder argument to make, though, when you consider that a) UNC has feasted on two I-AA offenses (Tech has faced none) as well as the low-octane attacks from UConn and Virginia, which were all too happy to slug it out in the modern equivalent of trench warfare; and b) The Heels have been more or less eviscerated by the most competent offenses they've faced, giving up 317 yards rushing to Georgia Tech and 385 yards passing to FSU in a pair of losses.

On that note, Virginia Tech may be more competent on offense than you realize: Along with a top-20 rushing attack headed by the conference's leading rusher, Ryan Williams, Tyrod Taylor has quietly developed into one of the most efficient passers in the country, with a penchant for big plays on the relatively rare occasions that he does throw. At the very least, it's enough to outpace Carolina's anemic attack, whose only hope at this point, in this environment, is a masked man swinging in to sweep them from the gallows at the last second. If even Lawrence Taylor couldn't save them last week, they're just going to have to face the music here.

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1 Comment

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  1. Leifericson
    1. Posted by Leifericson Thu Oct 29, 2009 3:55 pm EDT

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    What's the over/under for UNC first downs?
    They needed to replace Nicks and Tate, but it's not happening this year.

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Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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