Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

There's no "secret" to Alabama's success -- the Tide rank in the top five nationally in every major defensive category, are good for more than 200 yards per game on the ground behind the SEC's leading rusher and don't turn the ball over. That's the 'Bama blueprint from time immemorial, and they've hit all of those notes to various degrees in every game of their 8-0 start.

But what really made Alabama frightening over the first month of the season was its penchant for the long ball: At the end of September, alleged "game manager" Greg McElroy ranked among the country's top per-capita gunslingers, averaging more than 14 yards per completion and leading the SEC in efficiency thanks to his willingness to get the ball to a variety of receivers downfield, including 35 and 48-yard bombs in the win over Virginia Tech and strikes covering 32, 50 and 80 yards at Arkansas, only one of which was brought in by feted receiver Julio Jones. There were no really close calls in those first four games, even against the Hokies (34-24) and Razorbacks (35-7), and the Tide looked like the most well-rounded outfit in the country.

But if it seems like they've been a little more one-dimensional over the last four, it's not an illusion:

The lack of a credible downfield passing game was palpable in the close call at Tennessee, where 'Bama failed to score a touchdown and only two completions out of 18 went for more than 10 yards, with a long of nineteen. When Julio Jones is averaging as many yards per reception (7.7 on seven receptions vs. the Vols) as Greg McElroy is averaging on scrambles (7.3), there's a problem, and Nick Saban wants it fixed this week against LSU:

Saban has made it clear he wants his quarterback to quit focusing so much on "taking what the defense gives" and be more willing to take some chances and throw the ball downfield, even if it results in an incomplete pass or, worse, a turn­over.

"It's a point of emphasis for us," Saban said last week. "We need to do it. Just because we don't have success doesn't mean it doesn't have an effect on the game. We used to play the Raiders when I was in pro ball. They'd have two fast guys. They were going to throw them the ball five or six times in a game and they were going to run deep down the field and you had to cover them.

But then that guy that's playing them, whether they catch it or not, it makes him play different all the other plays in the game. It's not just about the results sometimes. It's about how it affects everything else."

Oddly enough, the decline in the passing game hasn't affected Mark Ingram; quite the opposite, in fact, since Ingram has made his All-American bid by averaging 164 yards per game with virtually no air support over the last four, including the 246-yard show he put on against South Carolina, a game in which McElroy was intercepted twice and Jones didn't have a catch for the first time in his career. When the defense is in the midst of a three-game, eleven-quarter streak of holding opposing offenses out of the end zone, continuing to plug ahead with one of the best running backs in the country makes a lot of sense.

The fact remains, though, that Alabama has a total of two offensive touchdowns in its last three games, and Tennessee made it clear enough two weeks ago that a good defense willing to force McElroy to go underneath can limit Ingram (99 yards on 5.5 per carry vs. Tennessee) and generally grind the offense to a field goal-settling halt. LSU, despite its early defensive struggles, is a good defense: The Tigers' October included holding Georgia scoreless for the first three quarters of their win in Athens, holding Florida to a single touchdown, keeping Auburn out of the end zone until garbage time of a 31-10 rout and shutting out Tulane, 42-0. Like Tennessee, LSU's defensive front is too strong for 'Bama to expect to push them around consistently enough to put together long drives with Ingram and Trent Richardson between the tackles -- it will be on McElroy Saturday to loosen the Tigers up or risk extending the end zone drought, which could finally push the always-brittle undefeated season to its breaking point. When you're not scoring touchdowns, there's only so much the defense and field goal units can do.

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6 Comments

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  1. Matt M
    1. Posted by Matt M Tue Nov 03, 2009 2:06 pm EST

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    If he don't get he's head out of his butt ; bench him. We got two other guys itching to throw the ball. Jackson or McCarron. We need change or we re gonna see defeat, if not LSU it could come soon. Good Luck To Tide ROLL TIDE
  2. Brandon
    2. Posted by Brandon Tue Nov 03, 2009 2:43 pm EST

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    Matt, if the other QBs were better, they would be on the field. GM will not be benched. Get real.
  3. LongTrans
    3. Posted by LongTrans Tue Nov 03, 2009 2:59 pm EST

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    @ #1: Your prophecy will come true.
  4. A!
    4. Posted by A! Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:09 pm EST

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    Are you kidding me????
    Just who did they "ROLL OVER"????
    Against the fearsome trio of passing defenses presented by Florida International, North Texas and Arkansas, the Tide racked up 800 passing yards... in their other 5 games COMBINED, they had just 740.
    Even WESTERN KENTUCKY put up 49 points on North Texas.
    The other September opponent, Va Tech, appears to be a mild version of Clemson from 2008 -- a top 10 preseason pick that fails to meet expectations.
    McElroy's September was a mirage.
    The real pressing question going into Saturday's game:
    Who will cause less damage to their team's chances of winning- Jefferson or McElroy???
    I give the edge to 'Bama... they have Ingram.
  5. AaronS
    5. Posted by AaronS Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:19 pm EST

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    Does what Saban is saying make any sense to anyone? I mean, the Raiders still have the guys that will fly down the field and have to be covered...Al Davis is notorious for only drafting those players. That doesn't actually make the Raiders any better. Throwing the ball downfield doesn't make you better unless you actually complete the passes. It's like the old coach's saying that only 3 things can happen when you throw and two of them are bad. You have a great defense and a Heisman caliber running back that in a down game averaged 5.5 ypc against a stout defense. Opposing coaches have figured out that they can cover Bama's receivers without committing too much to the deep game and unless McElroy can prove them wrong that's not going to change no matter how many incomplete deep passes are thrown, and as good as he looked early in the year, I don't think that McElroy is capable of hitting that pass with any consistency.
  6. Steven
    6. Posted by Steven Wed Nov 04, 2009 10:46 pm EST

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    I'm going to agree with raiders and AL Davis. Alabama could win with either Jefferson or McElroy.Both of them can hit the short passes. Alabama wouldnt win games if it wasnt for their running the ball. At least they can do that.But it really doesnt matter because their not good enough to win a national title. Leave that to #1 Texas and #2 florida. Look for texas to win. C. McCoy and that high scoring offence will out score florida with ease and dont forget about their run stopping,pass snagging,QB sacking defence to make florida struggle on offence. Holding them to 13 points. If alabama gets lucky to get passed LSU and florida gets beat , maybe they will get their chance at a title,but they will need more than a run game.

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