Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Russell Wilson was one of the first quarterbacks to take the field this season, in N.C. State's Thursday night opener at South Carolina, and it was an inauspicious debut:

Wilson was a very fringe starter to begin with, a two-star, redshirt "athlete" out of high school who upset returnees Daniel Evans and Harrison Beck and incoming blue-chip Mike Glennon (yes, Sean's little brother, with much higher expectations) for the job in August, and when he had to be carted after taking his third big hit in the first half of his first game, I just assumed he'd had his shot and probably wouldn't be heard from again. When he did come back to stay in October, he was still good for a "Prepare the emergency room: it's Russell Wilson" joke or two -- if you even realized N.C. State was playing. That's what happens when your nationally-televised games consist of a woeful shutout to kick off the season and a nine-point loss to Florida State memorable only for an entertaining halftime interview with the opposing coach. Most of college football took one look at the debacle at South Carolina and wrote off the Pack as lame ducks for the year. I'm pretty sure I wondered at some point if they would score an offensive touchdown all season.

So, with all the returns in, let us revise our assumptions. Here's N.C. State's offense in September, when Wilson started and finished only one out of four games (the Evans/Beck-led win over William & Mary on Sept. 9 is excluded, because it's William & Mary), compared to the seven games since the start of October, when Wilson took over full-time:

It should be noted that the lone win in the first four games was the only game Wilson played from start to finish, the 30-24 upset of then-undefeated East Carolina; the two games he missed entirely or almost entirely (other than William & Mary) were 34-0 and 41-10 humiliations at the hands of South Carolina and South Florida. Overall, NCSU finished 5-3 when Wilson went the entire way, including four straight wins (the last three over winning teams -- Wake Forest, North Carolina and Miami) from a 2-6 grave to close the year at .500 and within sniffing distance of a bowl game.

The main reason is in the final column: Wilson finishes the season not only as the ACC's top-rated passer, but with a single interception to his name against 16 touchdowns; the interception came on essentially a Hail Mary near the end of the Pack's loss at Clemson in September, Wilson's final throw of that game, meaning he went 226 attempts over his last eight starts without giving the ball away, and the team was +12 over the last two months.

Because every single team in the ACC Atlantic is bowl-eligible, and N.C. State is the low man on the pole at 6-6, a bid might be hard to come by unless a long, unlikely chain of events breaks in the Pack's favor over the final weekend. But a rock-bottom bowl game's almost not worth it, anyway -- as far as optimism and momentum into the offseason goes right now, NCSU finishes as strong as any team in the conference.

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6 Comments

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  1. 4.0 Point Stance
    1. Posted by 4.0 Point Stance Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:55 pm EDT

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    Did the SEC fill all its bowl slots? The ACC may be able to poach one of those.
  2. RotoKim
    2. Posted by RotoKim Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:51 pm EDT

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    It's worth it to them for the extra practice time, almost more than the bowl payout.
  3. Devin McCullen
    3. Posted by Devin McCullen Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    The reporter's math is all screwy. He missed the open spot in the Hawaii Bowl, for one. And if the Sun Belt tie-ins only kick in for 7-5 teams, then even if Arkansas St., Arizona St. and Louisville win, there's 4 spots available for at-larges. (Texas, both Independence and Motor City). There's 2 7-5 teams, so the last 2 spots have to be divvied up among 6-6 N.C. St., Louisville, and Rutgers. That's worst-case scenario, involves 3 upsets, although no huge ones, and even then they'd have a decent shot.
  4. John V
    4. Posted by John V Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:26 pm EDT

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    ACC with the most bowl eligible teams? Interesting.
  5. Leroy Corso
    5. Posted by Leroy Corso Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:49 pm EDT

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    Could points Devin.
    Also, I'm not so sure NCSU will be left out of the ACC tie ins.
  6. JCHANEY454
    6. Posted by JCHANEY454 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:30 pm EDT

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    Hawaii bowl will be
    Hawaii VS Pac-10
    Russell Wilson was one my top 5 fastest players that I saw live. Too bad the rest of the team only cares about winning the State Championship rather than the ACC.
    My live top 5
    1. Noel Divine- WVU
    2. Russell Wilson- NCSU
    3. Pat White- WVU
    4. Darius Marshall- Marshall
    5. Norman Whitley- ECU

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