Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Adjusting to the weekend's new realities.

 • The clock is ticking. Despite the pervasiveness of a handful of dumb, halfhearted columns after last year's debut flop and legions of "hur hur Rich Fraud" threads all over the Web, Rich Rodriguez has never been on the "hot seat" at Michigan. He hasn't been close to it -- he inherited a mess of youth, attrition and apparently some entrenched cultural resistance from the deep-rooted Lloyd Carr administration, always had a minimum of three years to install his program and came into this year with plenty of leeway to demonstrate "progress" from last year's 3-9 disaster. And of course there would be progress, and with it plenty of patience. The perceived, hypothetical "hot seat" chatter around Rodriguez didn't bear any resemblance to his actual standing among Michigan fans and insiders.

I say all that about the past year so I can say this about the next one: After dropping a 25-point decision to previously hopeless Illinois for the Wolverines' fourth straight Big Ten loss, Rich Rodriguez is kind of on the hot seat. I'm comfortable saying that now because M blogger extraordinaire Brian Cook, Rodriguez's most patient, cerebral and dogged supporter from the day Rod was hired, says he's on the hot seat:

I've been watching the same stuff everyone has for 1.5 years and here's where I am: it's blindingly obvious that some portion of the suck is Rodriguez's doing. After that huge reversal of fortune you have to back down from any previous stances you have about the program, its progress, and etc etc etc. That is a game-changing event. That game turned "Rich Rodriguez flames out in three years" at Michigan from a laughable notion to a possible one. Distantly possible, but possible.
[...]
Rodriguez will be back next year with a mandate to get to a mediocre bowl, and he'll be under pressure to produce a serious team in year four. My confidence that he'll do that is waning.

That's a long, long way from the Wolverines' 4-0 September, but it's hard to keep up the stiff upper lip when your team is dead last not only in the Big Ten standings, but also in both total offense and total defense in conference games, with an uncompetitive loss to the league's undisputed bottom dweller and no end in sight with Wisconsin, Ohio State and, with a loss to Purdue this Saturday, another losing season looming on the horizon.

Cook's not the only one losing patience after the Illinois loss, a terrible effort against a terrible team that marked the first time this year -- even during the losing streak to respectable opponents, against whom the Wolverines had been consistently competitive until the Penn State loss two weeks ago -- that 2009 felt like 2008. The team on display the last two weeks doesn't look like it's turned a corner at all. Whatever cushion he has, the one outcome Rodriguez absolutely cannot afford is regression.

So you're telling Duke there's a chance ... There's nothing particularly impressive about beating N.C. State, Maryland or Virginia, or even beating all three of them in a row. But in Duke's case, consider the context of its fourth-quarter comeback Saturday at Virginia: The last three weeks not only represent the Devils' longest winning streak in 15 years, but with one more ACC win in their last four games, they can match their conference win total for the last nine years combined, six of which were winless in ACC games. With only one league loss, Duke also remains on pace with Georgia Tech atop the Coastal Division, with the Jackets coming to town in two weeks; if the Devils upset North Carolina this Saturday in Chapel Hill, the visit from Tech the following weekend will be the biggest game in Durham in decades.

Besides coach David Cutcliffe, the headliner of the turnaround is quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, the latest in an unbroken line of prolific Cutcliffe protegés who has more than 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns to just two interceptions in the last four games alone, which would have counted as an entire season for more than a few of his predecessors in the job. But note also the across-the-board leap in the defense:

Despite Lewis' gaudy numbers, the defense has been more responsible for the wins the last two weeks, holding Maryland and Virginia to 13 and 17 points, respectively, and returning a fumble for a crucial touchdown in the fourth quarter Saturday to put away the Cavaliers. If the Devils have any hope whatsoever of actually making a darkhorse run at the Coastal crown down the stretch, the defense will have to lay the foundation.

 • There is life beyond Eric Decker for Minnesota's offense. With a foot injury permanently sidelining All-Big Ten receiver Eric Decker -- by far the Gophers' leading receiver each of the last two years and the only member of the offense that could be classified as any kind of "star" -- Minnesota might have opted to scrap its "pro-style" passing game altogether and begin retooling the offense for hyped freshman MarQuies Gray, who hasn't thrown much but did run for 81 yards out of the Wildcat against Ohio State while completing five of six passes with a touchdown. And Gray still ran against Michigan State, eight times for 100 yards. But minus Decker, the Gophers got more pass-happy in their 42-34 win over the Spartans, dropping back 33 times for 416 yards and five touchdowns and the most efficient performance of three-year starter Adam Weber's career.

On the other end, five different Gopher receivers had multiple receptions, led by tight end Nick Tow-Arnett, previously reception-less Da'John McKnight and a lucky bounce or two in the first 400-yard passing day in school history.

It may not matter who plays quarterback for Cincinnati. Starter Tony Pike left the lineup with a broken arm and one of the best pass efficiency numbers in the country after six games. Backup Zach Collaros has just laughed at that number while racing by it in two of the most efficient starts by any quarterback this season. After completing 22 of 28 passes for 295 yards and four touchdowns Saturday at Syracuse, Collaros' pass efficiency is above 235, putting not only Pike but every other quarterback with enough attempts to qualify for the national rankings to shame -- if Collaros somehow managed to maintain that number over the rest of the season (which would be impossible, even if Pike didn't seem likely to return this weekend against UConn), he'd shatter the single-season record.

Maybe we shouldn't be so surprised: Keep in mind that he works in the same offense that pulled Pike from obscurity at the end of the depth chart and turned him into a darkhorse Heisman contender; that pulled Ben Mauk from an injury-shortened stint at a different school and turned him into a record-breaker at the center of the best offense in school history; and that, when head coach Brian Kelly was boss at Central Michigan in 2006, pulled obscure redshirt freshman Dan LeFevor from the bench and turned him into the MAC player of the year. At this point, every quarterback Kelly touches turns to gold, which makes Pike's return much less urgent to sustaining the Bearcats' undefeated season that it seemed two years ago.

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11 Comments

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  1. Reed
    1. Posted by Reed Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:16 pm EST

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    The Rob Gordon!
  2. ddoerksen180
    2. Posted by ddoerksen180 Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:18 pm EST

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    Matt, bad quote tag up there....
  3. genius_man16
    3. Posted by genius_man16 Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:24 pm EST

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    Brian Kelly is just a frickin genius. End of story.
    Rich Rod is indeed a fraud, no matter how cliche that is, it is still the truth. I've had sympathy for Michigan fans ever since they hired him last year, and the next 2 years can't end soon enough.
    Maybe he'll turn it around and make me look silly, and good for him if he does, but I doubt it.
  4. ryan w
    4. Posted by ryan w Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:28 pm EST

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    QUOTE: he inherited a mess of youth, attrition and apparently some entrenched cultural resistance from the deep-rooted Lloyd Carr administration
    Actually, he inherited a 9-4 football team with a highly recruited young quarterback.
    Attrition? That sir, was his own doing.
    Bad info on your part
  5. poolben@...
    5. Posted by poolben@... Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:10 pm EST

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    ryan w: I would like to direct you to this page
    http://mgoblog.com/diaries/decimated-defense-part-ii-statisticating
    before you make any more absurd statements a la your "bad info" gaff.
  6. Jacob
    6. Posted by Jacob Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:16 pm EST

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    Thaddeus Lewis was a three star recruit:
    http://fe1.rivals.sports.ac4.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Thaddeus-Lewis-36031
    http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=8&c=1&nid=1777821
  7. Jacob
    7. Posted by Jacob Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:37 pm EST

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    reg McElroy and Mark Ingram were also three star recruits:
    http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=8&c=1&nid=1758637
    http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=8&c=1&nid=3042832
    You know, I don't think there's much difference amongst three and four star recruits!
  8. Robert
    8. Posted by Robert Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:18 am EST

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    It doesn't sound like the Michigan fan base is "all in"
  9. bigboo's bro
    9. Posted by bigboo's bro Tue Nov 03, 2009 11:34 am EST

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    Michigan should cut its losses and hire someone who respects the school's academic and athletic traditions, and who doesn't think he is more important than the school, the program, and the players.
  10. PHUC NUTT/as in houston
    10. Posted by PHUC NUTT/as in houston Tue Nov 03, 2009 1:35 pm EST

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    yknow these coaches aren't given the oppurtunity to evaluate the program's they inherit. the job's are taken sight unseen yknow. it's take it or leave it at program's like michigan, & rightfully so. this scene has played out countless time's throughout the history of the game. michigan has been fortunate all this time, but now their in the same boat almost every other program has been in before. i'm not sold on petrino here at ARKANSAS, but i'm not sure throwing the guy under the bus, & starting over is the right approach (yet). it's a pickle of a dilemma. i think MICHIGAN fan's are justified in their beef. MICHIGAN isn't in the situation ARKANSAS is in. MICHIGAN is w/out doubt one of the three best team's in the BIG 10 consistently. if MICHIGAN can beat either PENN STATE, or OHIO STATE (or both) they can finish as the second best , or at worst third every year. it's like the BIG 12 if TEXAS beat's OKLAHOMA they win the BIG 12 (or vice versa). in the BIG 10 MICHIGAN should NEVER slip below at worst third (NEVER NEVER NEVER). MICHIGAN "should" just win. i'm not a MICHIGAN or BIG 10 fan, but i know there's no losing at MICHIGAN, or any excuses should you not win. it's the same (sort of) situation right now w/MIAMI, & FLORIDA ST. there's just too much talent to lose, but what do you do yknow ? there's only one pete carroll, nick saban, mack brown, etc. etc. trial, & error it seem's unless MICHIGAN can come off some considerable bank to get someone of that stature to leave where their at. good luck MICHIGAN (i hate the BIG 10, buy i alway's pull for MICHIGAN before i pull for anybody else)
  11. docwilly
    11. Posted by docwilly Wed Nov 04, 2009 4:13 pm EST

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    R.Rod was a winner @ WVU because he was in the Lame East. He didnt have the smash mouth FB as the B10

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