Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Adjusting to the weekend's new realities.

Florida is beatable. Very beatable. The most distressing aspect of the Gators' skin-of-their-teeth win over Arkansas wasn't necessarily the near-miss itself as much as its predictability. The analogies between upset-minded Arkansas this year and last year's only Gator spoiler, Ole Miss, have been glaring for months: I looked at the Razorbacks' hyped transfer quarterback, veteran lineup, formidable pass rush and favorable landing on the schedule and pegged the 'Hogs as the most dangerous threat to Florida's bid for an undefeated season back in July; SEC guru Tony Barnhart saw Arkansas as the top "trap" game in the conference in August.

The comparisons between the '08 Rebels and '09 Razorbacks all held up coming into this game, as did the generic blueprint for beating the Gators -- Arkansas sacked Tim Tebow six times, hemmed in the other big-play options in the UF running game, forced Tebow to throw to win, even managed to force (and recover) four fumbles, and subsequently took the nation's longest winning streak right down to the dying seconds.

Maybe it says something about these Gators that they were able to pull out a sneaky win in the spot that nearly ruined their championship run last year, and did it with Tebow delivering under pressure down the stretch as a runner and passer for only the second fourth-quarter comeback of his career. But the fact is that, in its three toughest games, Florida struggled mightily on offense against Tennessee and at LSU, and was taken to the brink by the first team it faced with a little offensive firepower of its own. The Razorbacks easily could have won with more accuracy from quarterback Ryan Mallett, who missed a couple certain touchdowns in an inconsistent effort, or kicker Alex Tejada, who shanked two crucial field goal attempts in the second half.

Every champion has to win games like this, and Florida has obviously rebounded from close calls and worse before. But all of its prospective vulnerabilities at the start of the year -- especially the inability to replace Percy Harvin -- have been all too evident through the first half.

Iowa is the new Ohio State. Standings, not stats: The Buckeyes' loss at Purdue not only left Iowa alone at the top of the conference standings, but with Ohio State and Penn State both skating along on brand recognition more than any impressive wins, the Hawkeyes are also carrying the Big Ten flag into the national battle all by themselves. Even the hearty stoics of the plains have to have a hard time getting excited about the league's ninth-ranked total offense -- even the offense's alleged strong suit, the power-running game, ranks 93rd nationally after a net 65-yard day in the win at Wisconsin -- but with a win over the Nittany Lions in the bag and Ohio State sliding into mediocrity, Iowa can effectively secure a two-game lead in-conference by beating Michigan State Saturday, and remain the odds-on favorite to assume the Commissioner Valchek role in the BCS if it's still undefeated following a loss by Texas or one of the SEC frontrunners.

Washington remains, roughly, Washington. That is, a team that's probably not going to a bowl game, even though U-Dub is arguably the most exciting team in the country in terms of producing crazy finishes on a weekly basis. But off thrilling, improbable finales against USC (a win), Notre Dame (loss) and Arizona (win), the last-second decision at Arizona State was most likely the dagger to their postseason hopes:

That dropped the Heart-Attack Huskies to 3-4 and puts them in the precarious position of needing three wins in their last five to scratch out a bowl-eligible mark at 6-6. Assuming a win at home over Washington State, that means either a) Beating Oregon and Cal in Seattle; b) Beating Oregon or Cal and winning at either UCLA or Oregon State to end a two-year road losing streak; or c) Beating UCLA and Oregon State on the road, despite said streak. Odds are the Huskies come in at 5-7 and still revel in the enormous progress of Steve Sarkisian's first season.

Oh, and Idaho, the team Washington dropped 42-23 in September for its only comfortable win? Yeah, the Vandals are almost definitely going to a bowl game. It's a hard-knock life, Huskies.

Auburn is beginning to relapse. Not to instigate panic mode, but a week after limping to three first-half points in a rout at Arkansas, Auburn's suddenly healthy, revitalized offense was back to all its old, bad habits against Kentucky, delivering its worst passing performance, second-worst rushing performance and lowest point total of the season in a 21-14 loss. Chris Todd, the most successful graduate of Gus Malzahn's Quarterbacks Anonymous, fell off the wagon with a 10-of-24, 80-yard, zero-touchdown effort that was all too reminiscent of the 2008 disaster that made the Tigers realize they needed to seek help in the first place. Auburn is still ranked in the top dozen nationally in total and scoring offense, but a third straight flop this week at LSU will leave AU nearly back at square/step one.

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26 Comments

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  1. Tim
    1. Posted by Tim Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:31 pm EDT

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    Florida's problems on offense go way beyond just Percy Harvin.
    I said in the week before the game that the most interesting thing to see is how the defense would do compared to their usual statistics. They are beatable with power running (especially without Spikes in the game) but the CBS announcers pointed out how to beat them through the air: use your cannon arm to drill a long pass to a receiver before the safety can get there. Last year against Ole Miss the young secondary was still hungover from 2007, this year (and since that loss in 2008) they are dominant but suddenly encountered a great gameplan to beat them in a high-variance game (with the turnovers and dropped TD pass by UF).
    Florida won't face anyone with an arm like Mallet the rest of the season. Alabama still has the best chance to beat them silly with their running game and a defense that will leave the Gator offense looking confused as usual.
  2. J-Vas
    2. Posted by J-Vas Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:07 pm EDT

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    Finally an article that isnt hanging off of Florida's juevos.
  3. adder30
    3. Posted by adder30 Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:08 pm EDT

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    Neither beautiful nor unique, nor looking as powerful as Florida of '08... but still one of the best two teams in the nation. They played their worst game of the year and still beat a pretty good team. I love underdogs (and, thus despise Florida) but they've still got a better resume than USC, Iowa, Boise State....
  4. neil
    4. Posted by neil Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:11 pm EDT

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    The Wire FTW
  5. G
    5. Posted by G Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:16 pm EDT

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    " a sneaky win" is how the author explains the number of complete BS calls UF was given on their last 2 drives? it seems everyone outside of florida recognizes what happened in the fourth quarter of that game. even if alabama is the better team it wont matter if they have to play against the very beatable gators and these refs.
  6. Dan
    6. Posted by Dan Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:27 pm EDT

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    "The Razorbacks easily could have won with more accuracy from quarterback Ryan Mallett . . . "
    What a stupid statement. Of course they could have won if Mallett was more accurate . . . but he wasn't. You might just as well have said that this would have been a run-away for the Gators if they hadn't fumbled four times . . . but they did.
  7. PurdueMatt
    7. Posted by PurdueMatt Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:44 pm EDT

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    That pass interference call that helped Florida tie the game at 20 was bs.
  8. Nicholas M
    8. Posted by Nicholas M Mon Oct 19, 2009 3:54 pm EDT

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    I'm glad someone is finally giving Arkansas some of the credit they deserve, rather than tripping over themselves to talk about how great Florida performed. The Gators are overrated, and Bama is going to show them up in the SEC Championship game. Arkansas should have won that game, and Tejada should be put in stocks on Dixon Street in Fayetteville for six hours a day until he can make a field goal. But I do take comfort in the proof that Florida is not the unstoppable machine that everyone who gets a media paycheck seems to think they are.
  9. jpa267200@...
    9. Posted by jpa267200@... Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:12 pm EDT

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    It makes me feel great that now im not scared of the future champs texas longhorns facing off against bama or the gators because if you give tx 4 turnovers you will not ever everrr win that game. everyone wants to see texas vs florida but it doesnt matter anyways iowa or usc would beat alabama ohhh ezzzzzzzzzz
  10. Tim
    10. Posted by Tim Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:12 pm EDT

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    If you guys are tired of endless praise of Florida, turn off ESPN and read Dr. Saturday.
    Only thing is that no one really knows yet what's wrong with the offense. They're eighth in the SEC in red zone efficiency, and that's not a Percy Harvin or downfield passing game problem. Each week that goes by means they're running out of time to fix whatever is wrong.
  11. Rocker2277
    11. Posted by Rocker2277 Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:24 pm EDT

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    Thank you! Someone finally says that Florida can be beaten. Does this mean that Tebow is not a god too? I get so sick of hearing about Tebow this, Tebow that. He's the College Football world's Brett Favre (who I'm also sick of hearing about). Everyone is entitled to a rough game every now and then. I thought the Texas defense looked as dominate as you could ask for, bradford or not. But I'm glad that the BCS rankings are out and we can quit hearing about the MEANINGLESS AP poll, not that the BCS is much better. But its better than sportswriters opinions on who the best is. Too much bias in all these things though. 16 team play-off. HOOK 'EM HORNS!
  12. Tim
    12. Posted by Tim Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:39 pm EDT

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    Seriously, who are these people that are posting on a Dr. Saturday article asking for more people to trash Tebow? Were they linked in from somewhere else? Just click the "previous article" button a few times, folks!
  13. Richard S
    13. Posted by Richard S Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:44 pm EDT

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    Well it might not have been pretty, and I am really missing Dan Mullen right now, but until someone beats the Gators then too bad for everyone else. OSU loses to Purdue, USC loses to UW, OU loses to everyone, ND is hilarious andTexas will get creamed by Alabama or Florida, so big deal. I will take a 6-0 start every year! The Tide offense score 1 touchdown against a S. Carolina team that a crappy UGA team hung 40 on, it happens. Teams get better throughout the year, even crappy ones like UVA for instance. The Gators survived the "trap game," now let's Destory the Rest! See ya in Atlanta Alabama, oh and that is the real National Championship Game. One more question for everyone, Do the Oregon Ducks' fans ever shutup about how great their team almost is? HA!
  14. Larry
    14. Posted by Larry Mon Oct 19, 2009 5:58 pm EDT

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    I'm neither a Florida nor Arkansas fan, but i did watch the game. Florida won the game by points, but they Did Not
    beat Arkansas. The Officials beat Arkansas. I've seen sorry Penalty calls before, but at least Four Penaltys Against
    Arkansas were totally uncalled for. Florida will not win the SEC title game, nor will they be National Champions, unless they hire the same dumb a$$ Officials again.
  15. cantcatchuf
    15. Posted by cantcatchuf Mon Oct 19, 2009 6:04 pm EDT

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    UF's problems really started when Adazzio decided to simplify the run offense from the option to the DIVE!. Why try to put our tiny afterburning backs on the edge when you can send them right up the middle play after play?
  16. just4funsies
    16. Posted by just4funsies Mon Oct 19, 2009 6:49 pm EDT

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    Yup... Florida is beatable... But so is every other team in the country. They give out championships for not getting beat, so let's not take it away from Florida until they get beat. There is no way they can succeed without ultimately beating 'Bama in Atlanta, and somebody else in Pasadena, so why all this venom and conjecture when the outcome will ultimately determined on some striped field on some future date? It either will be, or it won't be. Any other whining and bellyaching just sounds like sour grapes. You guys griping about referee's calls need to go change your maxi-pads. Bad calls happen to everybody, but none of you wusses is ever found on here sticking up for Florida when they're on the short end of one. Don't be infantile.
  17. Larry
    17. Posted by Larry Mon Oct 19, 2009 7:59 pm EDT

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    Hey DaBomb. Get up on this. I got your Wusse hanging.
  18. just4funsies
    18. Posted by just4funsies Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:09 pm EDT

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    Very intelligent, Larry... Lost a bet for all your IQ points, didn't ya?
  19. Jimmy C
    19. Posted by Jimmy C Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:43 pm EDT

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    these foolios aint gonna keep sliding by all year long. Arkansas was playing against the refs aswell. I dont care what anybody else says.
  20. GameDay
    20. Posted by GameDay Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:36 pm EDT

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    I can't shake the fact that Florida beat LSU 13-10, whereas PAC 10 #5, lowly Washington, lost to LSU 23-31.
    Washington could put up more points on LSU than Florida with goodgodalmightytebow.
    Sad.
  21. keith m
    21. Posted by keith m Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:54 pm EDT

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    Larry, if it is hanging, you better give it back to whoever you got it from.....DaBomb, really nice comment, its totally true...Florida has been on the end of some really bad calls and still pulled off their games, they made alot of mistakes and still came out with a win............If you can say Florida is beatable, then Texas is beatable after only beating then a 2 loss Oklahoma team............so what if its a rivalry, so are every SEC games Florida plays in, like homecoming against the Hogs...........Florida beat Kentucky 41-7 and Bama beat Kentucky 38-20......what does it say, nothing but good games in the SEC.........this article is so stupid because any team is beatable, just ask USC and their devoted fans.........if Washington can beat USC by 3, does that make a team better than another, no, its just a great gamer and rivalry..........USC old assistant is now Washintons head coach and alot of the USC staff went with him and they had a game plan...................after this weekend, just look at all of the games....ANYONE IS BEATABLE!!!!!
  22. keith m
    22. Posted by keith m Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:01 pm EDT

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    gamedaytribe....whats so sad is that Florida beat LSU 13-3 not 13-10......so the sad part is that you dont even know that LSU didnt even score a td against Florida and they were #4 in the country at the time!!! The almighty Tebow played very cautiously cause Meyer didnt want him to run the ball and suffer a concussion after getting hurt by his own teammate.....jess, Florida has the defense to take anyone to the red zone and stop them.....get your facts straight.......
  23. GameDay
    23. Posted by GameDay Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:50 pm EDT

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    keith m, that was a cut and paste error, grrrrr.
  24. woods1999
    24. Posted by woods1999 Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:35 am EDT

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    gamedaytribe... you also can't compare scores when one was on the road and the other was Saturday night in Baton Rouge. Apples and Oranges.

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