Mon Oct 19, 2009 2:04 pm EDT
Adjusting to the weekend's new realities.
Florida is beatable. Very beatable. The most distressing aspect of the Gators' skin-of-their-teeth win over Arkansas wasn't necessarily the near-miss itself as much as its predictability. The analogies between upset-minded Arkansas this year and last year's only Gator spoiler, Ole Miss, have been glaring for months: I looked at the Razorbacks' hyped transfer quarterback, veteran lineup, formidable pass rush and favorable landing on the schedule and pegged the 'Hogs as the most dangerous threat to Florida's bid for an undefeated season back in July; SEC guru Tony Barnhart saw Arkansas as the top "trap" game in the conference in August.
The comparisons between the '08 Rebels and '09 Razorbacks all held up coming into this game, as did the generic blueprint for beating the Gators -- Arkansas sacked Tim Tebow six times, hemmed in the other big-play options in the UF running game, forced Tebow to throw to win, even managed to force (and recover) four fumbles, and subsequently took the nation's longest winning streak right down to the dying seconds.
Maybe it says something about these Gators that they were able to pull out a sneaky win in the spot that nearly ruined their championship run last year, and did it with Tebow delivering under pressure down the stretch as a runner and passer for only the second fourth-quarter comeback of his career. But the fact is that, in its three toughest games, Florida struggled mightily on offense against Tennessee and at LSU, and was taken to the brink by the first team it faced with a little offensive firepower of its own. The Razorbacks easily could have won with more accuracy from quarterback Ryan Mallett, who missed a couple certain touchdowns in an inconsistent effort, or kicker Alex Tejada, who shanked two crucial field goal attempts in the second half.
Every champion has to win games like this, and Florida has obviously rebounded from close calls and worse before. But all of its prospective vulnerabilities at the start of the year -- especially the inability to replace Percy Harvin -- have been all too evident through the first half.
Iowa is the new Ohio State. Standings, not stats: The Buckeyes' loss at Purdue not only left Iowa alone at the top of the conference standings, but with Ohio State and Penn State both skating along on brand recognition more than any impressive wins, the Hawkeyes are also carrying the Big Ten flag into the national battle all by themselves. Even the hearty stoics of the plains have to have a hard time getting excited about the league's ninth-ranked total offense -- even the offense's alleged strong suit, the power-running game, ranks 93rd nationally after a net 65-yard day in the win at Wisconsin -- but with a win over the Nittany Lions in the bag and Ohio State sliding into mediocrity, Iowa can effectively secure a two-game lead in-conference by beating Michigan State Saturday, and remain the odds-on favorite to assume the Commissioner Valchek role in the BCS if it's still undefeated following a loss by Texas or one of the SEC frontrunners.
Washington remains, roughly, Washington. That is, a team that's probably not going to a bowl game, even though U-Dub is arguably the most exciting team in the country in terms of producing crazy finishes on a weekly basis. But off thrilling, improbable finales against USC (a win), Notre Dame (loss) and Arizona (win), the last-second decision at Arizona State was most likely the dagger to their postseason hopes:
That dropped the Heart-Attack Huskies to 3-4 and puts them in the precarious position of needing three wins in their last five to scratch out a bowl-eligible mark at 6-6. Assuming a win at home over Washington State, that means either a) Beating Oregon and Cal in Seattle; b) Beating Oregon or Cal and winning at either UCLA or Oregon State to end a two-year road losing streak; or c) Beating UCLA and Oregon State on the road, despite said streak. Odds are the Huskies come in at 5-7 and still revel in the enormous progress of Steve Sarkisian's first season.
Oh, and Idaho, the team Washington dropped 42-23 in September for its only comfortable win? Yeah, the Vandals are almost definitely going to a bowl game. It's a hard-knock life, Huskies.
Auburn is beginning to relapse. Not to instigate panic mode, but a week after limping to three first-half points in a rout at Arkansas, Auburn's suddenly healthy, revitalized offense was back to all its old, bad habits against Kentucky, delivering its worst passing performance, second-worst rushing performance and lowest point total of the season in a 21-14 loss. Chris Todd, the most successful graduate of Gus Malzahn's Quarterbacks Anonymous, fell off the wagon with a 10-of-24, 80-yard, zero-touchdown effort that was all too reminiscent of the 2008 disaster that made the Tigers realize they needed to seek help in the first place. Auburn is still ranked in the top dozen nationally in total and scoring offense, but a third straight flop this week at LSU will leave AU nearly back at square/step one.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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26 Comments
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I said in the week before the game that the most interesting thing to see is how the defense would do compared to their usual statistics. They are beatable with power running (especially without Spikes in the game) but the CBS announcers pointed out how to beat them through the air: use your cannon arm to drill a long pass to a receiver before the safety can get there. Last year against Ole Miss the young secondary was still hungover from 2007, this year (and since that loss in 2008) they are dominant but suddenly encountered a great gameplan to beat them in a high-variance game (with the turnovers and dropped TD pass by UF).
Florida won't face anyone with an arm like Mallet the rest of the season. Alabama still has the best chance to beat them silly with their running game and a defense that will leave the Gator offense looking confused as usual.
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What a stupid statement. Of course they could have won if Mallett was more accurate . . . but he wasn't. You might just as well have said that this would have been a run-away for the Gators if they hadn't fumbled four times . . . but they did.
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Only thing is that no one really knows yet what's wrong with the offense. They're eighth in the SEC in red zone efficiency, and that's not a Percy Harvin or downfield passing game problem. Each week that goes by means they're running out of time to fix whatever is wrong.
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beat Arkansas. The Officials beat Arkansas. I've seen sorry Penalty calls before, but at least Four Penaltys Against
Arkansas were totally uncalled for. Florida will not win the SEC title game, nor will they be National Champions, unless they hire the same dumb a$$ Officials again.
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Washington could put up more points on LSU than Florida with goodgodalmightytebow.
Sad.
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