Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

I don't know, maybe I'm just the patient type. When I wrote about the venom injected into Notre Dame's system in the immediate aftermath of Saturday's humiliation against Syracuse, I assumed it would take the entire offseason to fester and another disappointing season to finally prove fatal to the Charlie Weis era. He does have a couple BCS bowls to his name, after all, a couple highly-ranked recruiting classes hitting maturity next year, and if nothing else, a massive buyout. For a guy who was supposedly safe as of last Sunday, $21 million buys a very slow trigger finger from an administration.

With the university power brokers, that may be true, but it's certainly not in today's ND press, who wholeheartedly agree with the Weis-baiting tyke above. The snowball-wielding students were nothing compared to the avalanche of catcalls and eulogies from the likes of hometown columnist Jeff Carroll, who pulls no punches in the South Bend Tribune:

A little less than four years ago, Charlie Weis arrived at Notre Dame waving Super Bowl rings and boasting about the "decided schematic advantage" he was going to hold over other college coaches.

It was easy to dislike that, easy to root against him. On the other hand, coming out of the emotionless Tyrone Willingham years, it also felt like something this program very much needed at the time. As long, of course, as he could deliver.

He can't.
[...]
In fact, I will go this far. Unless Weis finds a way to go into the L.A. Coliseum and pull off an epic upset of USC next Saturday, he should not return as the head football coach at Notre Dame next season.

Whether Weis' job is really hanging on a miracle or not, only the small cabal of men with the largest offices on campus know. But it should be, megamillion buyout or not.
[Emphasis added]

There's more of the same in the Chicago Tribune ("... the most insidious part about Notre Dame's grim postgame choreography Saturday was ... how distastefully routine it had become"), the Chicago Sun-Times ("Is this the final nail?"), the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette ("Syracuse's players showed intensity Saturday from the beginning while Notre Dame looked flat.") and even the more optimistic and sober of the Irish blogs, like The Blue-Gray Sky, which looks like it's given up on the Weis era:

... I like Charlie Weis. I think he's a good guy and I think he loves Notre Dame. I don't think he is incompetent, like Ty Willingham. I do not think he is an arsonist, like Bob Davie. I think it's awful that he has failed, and he has. I think it is tragic. Tragic that he could not save his alma mater from the farce that was the Willingham era. ... Tragic that he will be seen as just one more link in the chain of fools that has guided the program for the past dozen years.
[...]
I'll let the smart guys on this blog get into the nuts and the bolts of it, but this train has sailed. I think we all know it. All that remains is a fake punt, with SC up by 30 in the 4th quarter, next Saturday. That it is possible that, after four years, we are unable to line up against Syracuse or BC or Pittsburgh or San Diego State and get 2 yards is really all the confirmation you need. There is some basic football ability lacking in this (and every other) Weis team, and it is all because of poor coaching.

In fact, I've only come across one dissenting opinion in any high profile Irish outlet, and even that's just an Associated Press report in the Indianapolis Star that argues firing Weis would promote instability after firing two other coaches with winning records and BCS bowl bids prior to Weis.

This reminds me of two things: a) Brian Cook's snarky "Returning to Glory Since 1993" t-shirts, and b) Kirk Herbstreit's more or less backhanded defense of Weis a couple weeks ago, which went along the lines of "this is who Notre Dame is." Both point to the fact that Weis' record, 28-19, is basically identical to Tyrone Willingham and Bob Davie. Unlike Irish fans, though, they see this not as a problem, but as a simple reality of life at Notre Dame in the 21st Century: After identical results from three different head coaches (four, if you count the last few years of Lou Holtz's tenure), maybe the problem isn't so much the coach as it is the program.

Notre Dame hasn't been in any serious mythical championship discussion (zero top-10 finishes) since 1993, and only averages about seven wins over the last 15 years; it has as many seasons with six or fewer wins as it does with at least seven. ND's winning percentage since 1994 ranks 36th in the country, between Boston College and Clemson. There's the famous bowl losing streak and pathetic record against ranked and winning teams. In visual form:

Over 15 years, a pattern is reality, even if the only pattern is one of inconsistency. Based on Notre Dame's last 15 years, the reasonable expectation on an annual basis is somewhere between six and eight wins. Assuming it's still willing to accept a bottom-barrel bowl invitation with a chance at finishing 7-6, the current team is coming right down a track laid long before Weis became the conductor.

So it's no surprise that the only opinion that dares suggest "the program's development is right on schedule" comes from the outside looking in on disgusted natives who for some reason can't find anyone able to meet the standards of 15-20 years ago. Before it asks another coach to turn in his whistle/rosary, the Irish might want to take a long, updated look at the criteria.

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  1. FilmFlam
    1. Posted by FilmFlam Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:59 pm EDT

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    Two questions:
    One, does anyone not think Weis is not enough of an a$$hole to crater his team for a mega-buyout so that he can go back to coaching in the NFL faster?
    Two, ND has had top-10 recruiting classes for 3 years. Miami is playing good football with freshman and sophomores. How can you keep saying that next year is the magic year that all his recruits will now be stars? Granted the ACC ain't the SEC, but it is a hell of a lot better than the people on ND's schedule.
    Even a true ND-hater, like myself, has to be tired of their ineptitude.
  2. Maguro
    2. Posted by Maguro Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:30 pm EDT

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    Notre dame has the resources needed to excel, but they have hired 3 mediocrities in a row. This is not unprecedented. Quick, who were the last 3 USC coaches before Pete Carroll and what was their record? How about the last 3 Oklahoma coaches before Stoops?
    As long as they hire the right guy, there's no reason ND can't succeed big-time. Unfortunately for them, they have a pretty lousy track record of hiring FB coaches
  3. rightsaidfred
    3. Posted by rightsaidfred Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:38 pm EDT

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    Good news. Chuck Long from San Diego State is available. He will fit right in as the new head coach. Weis can return to the Patriots.
  4. periodicalx
    4. Posted by periodicalx Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:06 pm EDT

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    I don't get the "it's the program" argument. ND has great, and brand new, facilities, great history, great academics, and if nothing else Weis has at least proved that ND can still attract great talent (or at least great potential talent, since all these 4 and 5 star recruits seem to go bust once they get on campus).
    Also, consider what happened to the coaches that preceded Weis after they got fired. Davie hasn't been able to even sniff another coaching job, although he probably makes more money being a mediocre color commentator, and Willingham absolutely torpedoed the already wounded Washington program. I think it's pretty clear Davie and Willingham just weren't very good coaches. And whatever talent Weis had as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, which spygate has called into question, clearly hasn't translated into motivating college players.
    Point is, the available evidence, beyond a glib look at overall record, leans in favor of coaching being the problem. Actually, since it's been 3 straight coaches, 4 if you count the O'Leary debacle, you kind of have to think the real problem is in the athletic department, mostly under former AD Kevin White, who hired three of those jokers, and gave a big fat inexplicable extension to Davie. Weis too, so double screw up there.
  5. marcillac
    5. Posted by marcillac Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:06 pm EDT

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    Maguro @ 3:
    I tend to agree with your general point but Notre Dame isn't USC or Oklahoma. I doesn't have the weather of the first nor the "academics" of the second. Still, Notre Dame clearly Notre Dame has the resources to win 8-10, occasionally 11, rather than 6-8 games.
    BTW, speaking of spygate, New England went undefeated after they were exposed; Matt Kassel (Leinert's backup, remember) just became the 5th QB in NFL history to throw for 400 yards in consecutive games.
  6. Max
    6. Posted by Max Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:57 pm EDT

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    The video is cute, but the kid just likes the sound of the word no, and has no idea what's going on.
  7. Retired Mike
    7. Posted by Retired Mike Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:17 pm EDT

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    Nooooo you don't say. Cute kid, yes, but like the other comments here, kid doesn't know anything about football.
  8. Maguro
    8. Posted by Maguro Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:30 pm EDT

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    The only way "the program" can be the problem is if good players won't go there. That is not the problem here as Charlie has recruited 3 Top 10 classes in a row. ND's players were far more highly rated - and offered by better schools coming out of HS - than the players from MSU, UNC, Pitt, BC, or Syracuse. Weis's inability to beat these teams cannot be blamed on the school, athletic facilities, the weather, Father Hesburgh, the band or Mike Haywood. Consistently losing to teams with inferior talent is on the head coach, period.
  9. Dan B
    9. Posted by Dan B Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:34 pm EDT

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    Based on the linked W-L records since 1994, Notre Dame seems to be in a similar position to Alabama. They are 104-68 since 1994 and ND is 101-67. Alabama is currently 11-0 and 2 more wins away from a shot at a national title. Who would have thought that was possible when they fired Shula in 2006?
    For all his faults as a head coach, Weis has at least proven that you can still recruit elite talent to Notre Dame. Saban has proven that once storied programs mired in a decade (or longer) of insignificance can be brought back to national elite status. Saban is not the only coach in the world capable of doing this, and I can't believe that Notre Dame will continue to swing and miss with coaching hires. They've got to get one right eventually, right?
  10. just4funsies
    10. Posted by just4funsies Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:44 pm EDT

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    Fat Cholly could probably EAT a BCS championship game, but that's as close as Notre Dame will ever get on his watch. It's just pitiful. Pride is right out the window...
  11. formfollowsfunction2
    11. Posted by formfollowsfunction2 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:01 pm EDT

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    The only "luck of the Irish" is that they fraudulently get SECOND CHOICE IN THE BIG EAST AND A SUN BOWL
    INVITE. I watched with glee as this outrageously bad team LOST TO SYRACUSE. They deserve a seeding in the Big East .... LAST.
  12. goggleman
    12. Posted by goggleman Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:54 pm EDT

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    Getting rid of Ty Willingham premature is showing itself now. Ty Willingham had the highest graduation rate of any coach in ND history. Mr. Willingham was in the third fraction of his 1st full recruiting class and note he was winning at a higher percentage than Mr. Charlie Weiss. You tell me the difference in Willingham being fired and Weiss being brought to ND. Weiss deserves to be fired. At ND he has shown that he is best fit as a Coordinator not Head-Man.
  13. DJ Murphy
    13. Posted by DJ Murphy Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:44 pm EDT

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    To 14: I'm a bit confused as to how you can say ND got rid of Willingham prematurely. Clearly getting rid of Weis this year would be a year too late, but Ty has laid TWO traditional powers low. At least Weis wasn't too worried about a tee time to get on a plane and recruit.
  14. David A
    14. Posted by David A Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:33 pm EDT

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    Charlie needs to be Belichek's assistant assistant:
    He can't evaluate talent (Jimmy Claussen--Mr. Turnover); he can't motivate (his teams quitting on him); he can't pick coaches(What's-his-name-from Ga-Tech-Tenuto-san).
    How is it that players who were stars in high school forget how to play under Charlie Weis?
  15. Tyler
    15. Posted by Tyler Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:47 pm EDT

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    the "program" argument holds no weight.
    notre dame can still recruit, they have nice facilities, a nice stadium, great academics, etc.
    the problem is that they hired three coaches who don't fit them. davie wasn't cut out to be a head coach. great football mind, but couldn't run an entire program. willingham just couldn't recruit. he couldn't recruit in the upper echelon's of college football.
    weis can't be a head coach at the college level. he doesn't know how to motivate and prepare college players. fantastic playcaller, but he doesn't understand college kids. he treats them like they are at an nfl minicamp and takes all the fun out of it.
    if notre dame moves on, there are two guys they need to contact. butch davis and chris petersen can both recruit and coach the college game. stay away from brian kelley!!!!
  16. Thomas
    16. Posted by Thomas Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:59 pm EDT

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    Go tyler! Chris Peterson can inspire with the best of them, is not afraid of taking risks/making risky calls, goes all out.
    I am a big Alabama fan, for the last 42 years, but also love the Irish. Just like college coaches are rarely among the most successful pro coaches, pro coaches - at least good pro coaches (i.e. not Pete Carrol) rarely make good college coaches, Saban couldn't coach in the nfl and Charlie can't coach college kids, it is that simple. Sorry Charlie, why not come to Pittsburgh and coach Ben Rothlisberger, but you are not helping ND so give it up.
  17. Jim Talbot
    17. Posted by Jim Talbot Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:35 pm EDT

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    PocketPigskin has some terrific graphs and stats showing the greatness of Notre Dame's past, and the mediocrity of the last couple of decades. The stats and trends tell the facts and results, not opinion. Go to http://www.pocketpigskin.com/teampages/notredamefightingirish.html
  18. Matthew
    18. Posted by Matthew Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:02 pm EDT

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    I agree with Tyler with a little additional comment. Before Weis came along everyone was saying that you couldn't recruit blue-chippers at ND anymore, because of the academic standards. That has been disproved with the last 3 years of recruiting. The next important thing, in my opinion, lets assume that Charlie is the offensive genius that he was stated as being, coming in. College doesn't have the time to learn all the Xs and Os that may or may not lurk in his head. This is all mandated by the NCAA, and even if they didn't, I'd assume that academic studies would come in to play. In the NFL, that is their job, and if you want the starting position, someone that is willing to learn the Xs and Os of the offensive "guru" will step in and play. College and pro is two different animals and I haven't seen success in one equate to success in the other, at least not in this day and age. Fundamentals and inspiration to succeed seems to be what wins ball games at the college level. These are kids that probably have a hard time focusing on text message to answer first, much less the game, if they aren't kept in focus by the coach.
  19. P-Dub
    19. Posted by P-Dub Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:53 pm EDT

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    Maybe Lou Holtz wasn't so bad afterall.
  20. moshepippik
    20. Posted by moshepippik Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:26 pm EDT

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    Notre Dame is so depressing that I believe they should warrant a congressional baleout!
    Perhaps such a baleout would psychologically help the midwest economy too!
  21. moshepippik
    21. Posted by moshepippik Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:26 pm EDT

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    Notre Dame is so depressing that I believe they should warrant a congressional baleout!
    Perhaps such a baleout would psychologically help the midwest economy too!
  22. Richard F
    22. Posted by Richard F Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:53 pm EDT

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    They can keep Charlie Weis if they want too, but please lets get them off the television every Sat. If it take a pounding on Sat from USc so be it.
  23. film381
    23. Posted by film381 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:59 pm EDT

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    IF there ever was a man in "NEED", Matt Hinton is the one!!!
    My Gosh man, you need to take a LOOOOOOOOONNNGGG vacation to now where and get a grip.
    You are the most negative and vile "blogger" there is. Even when you TRY to say something nice, it comes out tainted with venom.
    I would bet that most readers of your drivia agree that they are glad they don't live with your head on their shoulders for the rest of their lives.
    And I supposed your "argument" is that you were mistreated as a child and picked on by a bully at school. My goodness, get some mental health.... FAST!!!
  24. Valhalla360
    24. Posted by Valhalla360 Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:31 pm EDT

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    Please don't let Chubby Charlie go. It's fun to watch them play close cames vs the likes of Syracuse and SanDiego State. It's even more fun when a halfway decent team comes to town a slaughters them.
    Sorry Charlie. 4 years worth of recruites. The "Young" team has a year of playing experience under thier belt. It's your team that got very lucky not to be 4-8 (SanDiego State and Navy should have been loses).
  25. uscFrank
    25. Posted by uscFrank Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:02 pm EDT

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    Wow, Robert G !!! You must be dipping heavily into the ND firewater. Don't get me wrong, I love Charlie ... every time we play you. I hope you and notre dame's "millions of loyal sons and daughters" enjoy your whipping Saturday. Fight on USC.

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