A random, too-soon look at Ohio State's prospects next fall, sans the inevitable injuries, suspensions and other pratfalls of the too-long interim.

What's Changed. Anticipating the theme for the next three years, I was waiting in January for the Buckeyes to turn Terrelle Pryor loose in a spread/zone-read set based on his threat as a runner in the Fiesta Bowl, which was almost a throwaway game for OSU except for the vague purpose of "setting the tone" for the offseason. Clearly, with bruising tailback Beanie Wells destined to turn pro early, that tone was going to be something between giddy enthusiasm and nagging uncertainty about Pryor's development into the promised slayer of big-game dragons, anyway. But, true to form, Jim Tressel played it straight, patiently pounding Wells in the first half while Pryor -- the Big Ten's efficiency leader during the regular season -- had by far his worst game as a passer, failed to move the Buckeyes into the end zone through the first three quarters and looked uncomfortable, rushed and, above all, terribly inaccurate in the pocket. Somehow, beleaguered Todd Boeckman, hounded out of the lineup after an all-too-familiar collapse at USC, turned in a more effective effort than the freshman.

Still, with Wells, the two leading receivers and three starting offensive linemen on their way out, there is no question that this is Terrelle Pryor's offense, come hell, high water or regular three-receiver sets. The spring buzz centered entirely on how the staid Buckeye offense will change to accommodate Pryor's electric talents, and does it ever need a change -- overall, last year's offense was Ohio State's least productive in terms of yards and points since the near-disaster that was 2004. And against the best teams on the schedule, it was hopeless:

at Southern Cal: 207 yards, 3 points.
vs. Penn State: 287 yards, 6 points.
vs. Texas: 379 yards (186 in the first three quarters), 21 points (6 in the first three quarters)

That's right: Until the final frame of the Fiesta Bowl, the Buckeye offense against the elite teams on its schedule, in the games that defined its season, was shut out of the end zone for 11 straight quarters -- and it was ultimately Boeckman under center when it came to life at the end. No part of that is encouraging.

What is encouraging is Pryor's obvious raw athleticism, and his quick competence in the more routine games on the schedule -- take Northwestern, for example, a nine-game winner with whom the freshman toyed like a MAC also-ran in a 45-10 November rout; or Wisconsin, against whom he led a composed, 80-yard drive for the winning touchdown in his first road start; or Michigan State, another nine-game winner that was caught so flat-footed by the sudden appearance of the spread that Pryor compared the 45-7 walkover to being back in high school:

I'd expect the next two years to look a lot more like that on a regular basis than like the teeth-pulling sessions on display against Penn State and Texas, but only against defenses the Bucks can manhandle and Pryor can fairly easily out-gallop. The real question is whether Pryor has improved enough as a passer -- terms of mechanics and reading defenses, because there's no question about his arm -- to open up more room to run when USC, Wisconsin and Penn State roll around again.

What's the Same. The run defense was mediocre by OSU standards: 18th nationally and just third in the Big Ten after leading the conference and finishing in the top-five nationally in 2005 and 2007. Odd-numbered year = veteran talent on the defensive line, where upperclassmen Cameron Heyward, Thad Gibson and Doug Worthington started almost every game last year and returnees Dexter Larimore and Todd Denlinger opened the season as starters before injuries took their toll. The front four will be key, because the linebackers -- though also composed entirely of juniors and seniors on the front line -- will be also be totally new after years of sitting behind draft picks James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, who take a ton of tackles with them to the NFL.

None of the returning linemen received any All-Big Ten recognition whatsoever, which is surprising considering the profile of any full-time starter for Ohio State although the sheer volume of tackles by the linebackers and safeties is indication of the occupying/freeing role the linemen, rather than making a lot of plays themselves. But there was no one in the Vernon Gholston/Mike Kudla role as a pass rusher last year -- though Heyward and Gibson certainly look the part -- the lack of which could be more glaring with three new, relatively unhyped (new outside starters Tyler Moeller and Austin Spitler were only three-star recruits) and totally unproven linebackers behind them; the best athlete in the corps, hyped sophomore Etienne Sabino remains buried on the depth chart.

Bring on the anonybucks. Other than his position and profile, Pryor is the face of the offense in another way: Almost everyone else who'll touch the ball this year is also a highly recruited underclassman with a little playing time and a chance to break big as part of a group of totally new starters. Receivers DeVier Posey and Ray Small and running back Brandon Saine were all ranked among Rivals' top 100 overall recruits out of high school, and another receiver, Taurian Washington, and tight ends Jake Ballard and Jake Stoneburner all made the top 250. Daniel "Boom" Herron was a four-star pickup who was at least adequate as a redshirt freshman when Wells missed three games in September, and also had the go-ahead touchdown run late in the Fiesta Bowl. Incoming Jaamal Berry is Rivals' fifth-rated running back of the '09 recruiting class.

But the only ones of them who have done anything so far are Herron, Small (a burgeoning quasi-bust as a fifth-year senior) and less-hyped Dane Sanzenbacher, and to date they've all been role players playing mainly because of injuries, blowouts or routine, low-volume rotation. Somebody here has to emerge as Pryor's right-hand man; best bets: Herron and Posey.

Overly Optimistic Spring Chatter. Pryor looked comfortable and confident in the spring game, allaying some of the lingering Fiesta Bowl fears about the passing game, but the other news of the month was the impact of new guard Justin Boren's alleged "mean streak" on the underachieving offensive line:

"He's nasty," Pryor said. "I like that. I don't know what it is. He's just going to fight for you all day and all game. I like that in Boren."
[...]
"Just from a brute strength perspective, he's unbelievable," Buckeyes senior right tackle Jim Cordle said. "He's the strongest guy we've got on the team. You take a guy with the physical tools like that, and then he plays a little bit pissed off, which is kind of cool. It rubs off on everybody.

"He plays with a little bit of rage."
[...]
"Oh my God, he's a crazy dude," [Thaddeus] Gibson said. "It's good to have him over there because we're lining up and he's screaming and cussing and [stuff]. He's a good guy to have."

Michigan fans, no doubt, will love the irony of "screaming, cussing and rage" being applied to a guy who left the Wolverines with charges of "eroded family values," but then, from a purely football perspective, they'd probably love to have Boren back, too. Aw, such fun times on Nov. 21.

Best-Case. For the second year in a row, the big, glowing red game on the schedule isn't Michigan at the end, but USC in the front. This year's game doesn't carry nearly the same urgency as last year's rout in Los Angeles, because this OSU team doesn't have the soaring expectations it did going into 2008, but the Trojans' visit on Sept. 12 will still set the tone for the season: A Pryor-led win by a bunch of motley underdogs would go a long way to erasing the Buckeyes' five-game losing streak against top-10 teams since beating Michigan in the Armageddon game of 2006, and the sky's the limit from there. I'm not sure I'm comfortable putting an undefeated season on the table (no "Big Six" conference team has pulled that off in the regular since those '06 Bucks), especially with trips to Penn State and Michigan (yes, I'll consider UM a threat at year's end) and very non-gimme games against Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa. But no matter the buzz about "rebuilding," Ohio State is one of those programs that's always a big win or two away from a huge season, and Kurt Coleman is right: Win 'em all, and the national championship is out there.

Worst-Case. The cold-sweat nightmare is that Pryor suffers a significant injury: Backup Joe Bauserman is a former minor league baseball player with no significant snaps and middling rankings as a recruit, and OSU had to settle for lightly regarded Kenny Guiton (other offers: Rice, Houston, Iowa State and Kansas) in February after striking out on target Tajh Boyd.

As long as Pryor is viable, though, disaster is all relative. Another humiliation against SC, at home, with no broken feet to fall back on, would be demoralizing, at worst, and merely death in the polls, at best. The trip to Penn State will be the usual bear, and if the offense turns out as one-dimensional as it's been the last two years -- last year, especially -- a second conference loss is likely somewhere along the way. Still, barring a string of injuries, it's very, very hard to see OSU losing more than three games or playing in a less-prestigious bowl game than, say, the Outback. Penn State is an obvious competitor for the Big Ten title, but even in a down year, it will take a pretty dramatic leap for Illinois, Iowa or Wisconsin to nudge the Buckeyes any lower than No. 2.

Non-Binding Forecast. This is definitely a "rebuilding" year with a lot of uncertainty on paper, destined for the fringe of the top-10 in all the preseason magazines -- and still, Ohio State is likely to be favored in every game except USC, with Penn State serving as the toss-up for the auto bid to the Rose Bowl (where OSU, for all its success, hasn't been in more than a decade). I'm willing to project a conference loss, although I don't know where it will come from if not the Nittany Lions, and another 10-2 effort will be hard for the BCS to ignore. If it comes to that, the bowl game may be the most important of the year as a catapult for another round of sky-high hype for a veteran outfit in 2010.

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Previous Premature Assessments: Fresno State, Clemson, Kansas State, Colorado State, Virginia Tech, Hawaii, Kentucky, East Carolina, Baylor.