Sat Nov 21, 2009 10:22 am EST
Inside the day's key match-ups.
As a 6-5 team with two wins over I-AA outfits and only one victory over a team with a winning record -- a one-point escape from fellow 6-5 mediocrity Iowa State in the Big 12 opener -- Kansas State probably has no claim to "disrespect" today at Nebraska. Still: You don't see too many 16.5-point spreads in games with the division championship up for grabs. The winner today in Lincoln is heading to Dallas as the North Division's sacrificial lamb at the altar of Texas' coronation in the Big 12 Championship game in two weeks, and the oddsmakers apparently think there's no chance the Wildcats will be that lamb.
If there's any hope for KSU at all, it's obviously in the ability of the Wildcats' straight-ahead running game to pound out a living on one of the country's best run defenses. The only player who remotely qualifies as a "star" for this team on either side of the ball is 6-foot-2, 227-pound JUCO transfer Daniel Thomas, the Big 12's leading rusher, who personally has churned out five 100-yards games and been held below 75 yards only twice for an offense that's made a pretty good living on the ground -- KSU has averaged 214 yards rushing in its four conference wins, including 266 yards in a 17-10 win over Kansas two weeks ago, and had the best day on the ground of any team this season against Oklahoma with 149 yards and three touchdowns on 5.1 per carry in a 42-30 loss in Norman.
If nothing else, the Wildcats don't want to have to resort to putting the ball in the air: Even with the emergence of Grant Gregory as the clear starting quarterback, they rank dead last in the conference in passing yards and are also near the bottom in terms of efficiency. This is an old-school, work-the-body type of offense that isn't going to come roaring back from a big deficit, especially on the road against the nation's No. 1 pass efficiency defense.
The hitch: Nebraska is also one of the strongest run defenses in the country, anchored by certain All-American defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and less heralded linemates Jared Crick (12 tackles for loss) and Barry Turner (8 TFL), who haven't allowed a single offense yet to hit 150 yards or four yards per carry on the ground. That includes completely dismantling outstanding running games from Virginia Tech (86 yards on 2.3 per carry), Missouri (91 yards on 2.6) and Oklahoma (80 on 2.8). The Huskers' issue all season has been scoring enough points, and K-State's offense to date couldn't play more directly into their low-scoring hands.

Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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We'll see, but you are giving K-State far too much credit offensively, which seems a bit hypocritical considering the rest of your post was basically saying K-State has next to zero chance to move the ball against Nebraska's D.
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