Sat Nov 28, 2009 11:25 am EST
Inside the day's key match-ups.
The persistent question for Florida throughout the SEC season has been something along the lines of "Can the Gator offense get untracked?" In this case, "untracked" really means "explode" on the order of the '08 attack that averaged 421 yards and 43 points in SEC games. Minus play-caller Dan Mullen and all-purpose ninja Percy Harvin, this edition of the Gator O is averaging 375 and 28, respectively, and has gone off only once against decent competition, with 41 points against Georgia. But UF is still ranked in the top 15 nationally in total and scoring offense, against a sad-sack Seminole D sitting at dead last in the ACC and among the bottom 25 teams nationally in almost every major defensive category. That's a battle Tebow and Co., whatever their relative struggles, are going to win.
That's nothing new for the FSU offense, which seems to have accepted the burden of bailing out the defense a long time, and with some pretty impressive aplomb over the second half of the season: The 'Noles are averaging more than 460 yards and 35 points over the last six games, and won four of the last five since a mid-October bye week, all in wild shootouts, running up 30 points in the season-saving Thursday night comeback at North Carolina, 45 against N.C. State, 41 at Wake Forest and 29 last week against Maryland, the last two with scrambly backup E.J. Manuel at the helm in place of injured MVP Christian Ponder.
Manuel has been mostly fine in his first significant action, hitting two-thirds of his passes with a pair of 200-yard games (and a pair of wins) in his only two starts, but the story of salvaging the season over the last month has been one of balance -- the FSU ground game has averaged more than 205 yards in its last four. There's a reason you haven't heard as much lately about the vultures circling Bobby Bowden: Even with Manuel, this has been a much more formidable attack since that bye week than it was through the three-game losing streak that threatened to send Bowden to a premature retirement.
We'll see if that's enough to buy a generally competitive game in Tebow's finale, which is possible if the FSU defense turns in an expired effort in longtime coordinator Mickey Andrews' send-off. If you're expecting an Auburn or Texas A&M-like effort into the dying minutes of the fourth quarter, though, that's pressing your luck: Even if the rest of the 'Nole offense manages to match up with the Gators, Manuel remains a freshman in his third start, off a three-interception game last week against Maryland, against one of the top two or three defenses in the country. Florida State has consistently needed at least four touchdowns to overcome the defense; the Gators haven't allowed more than two in any game this year, or in any of the last 19 games of their 21-game winning streak. It will be a triumph for Jimbo Fisher's offense if this is still in question at any point in the fourth quarter.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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