Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Holding two thoughts at the same time.

Point: Cal is playing better than any team in the Pac-10. That's not just a status quo argument because the Bears are one of the only three undefeated teams left in the conference, and one of very few teams (along with Miami, UCLA, Georgia, Auburn, Iowa and Cincinnati) with two wins already over teams from "Big Six" conferences. Cal has earned its No. 6 ranking in both major polls with a thorough beating of Maryland in the opener and a more standard but still comfortable victory last week at Minnesota that solidified Jahvid Best as the resident non-quarterback on the burgeoning Mount Rushmore of this season's biggest stars. With Best alone, they're a threat to win any game.

But all of the elements that made the Bears the top challenger to USC in the preseason have been evident through the first three weeks: Best is a scintillating playmaker all over the field; five different receivers already have at least five catches; the veteran front four has the defense in the top 10 nationally against the run and in sacks; and the X-factor, Kevin Riley, currently ranks as the most efficient passer in the Pac-10 with five touchdowns and no interceptions. If the Bears just handle their business in Eugene, they'll be solid favorites to beat offensively-challenged USC next week in Berkeley, and the sky's the limit from there.

Counterpoint: Cal can't win a big game on the road. I'm not much for intangibles like "home field advantage," except as last resort when there are no other clear advantages. At this point, though, clearly traveling has to be considered a disadvantage for Cal, and not just for "big games" -- for almost any game:

The Bears have lost nine of their last 11 Pac-10 matches on the road, including games at Washington, Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State and twice at Arizona. After demolishing one of the worst teams in Pac-10 history, Washington State, last September, they dropped a stunning game at reeling Maryland and went on to blow their last three away from home in-conference, all by double digits. It's like a different team outside of Berkeley. 

The win at Minnesota was the Bears' best road win since September 2007, at Oregon, a game in which the Ducks a) outgained Cal by almost 100 yards, b) finished –4 in turnovers, and c) were still a yard away from winning if not for Cam Colvin's goal line giveaway en route to the winning touchdown; from there, the Bears lost their last four on the road, three as favorites.

Oregon, meanwhile, has been great at home: 12-3 overall since '07, and 2-0 this year. After their rocky start, Saturday is the opportunity to establish the Ducks as closer to the team almost everyone thought they'd be throughout the offseason than to the team the country saw lurch and collapse in a heap to begin the season in Boise; in short, a win could save their season. For Cal, a loss would mean exactly the opposite. But either way, we'll have a much better idea of the Pac-10's power structure -- or lack thereof -- as league games get underway.

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9 Comments

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  1. ****
    1. Posted by **** Thu Sep 24, 2009 7:17 pm EDT

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    Also the fact that Cal team in the last 2 years have a history of underachieving when there's a big expectation laid on them. Case in point: the Oregon State game two years ago and against Maryland and Arizona last year.
  2. DennisB
    2. Posted by DennisB Thu Sep 24, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    Oregon was down & lost 31-24 in the 2007 game, so if Colvin had scored it would not have been the winning touchdown
  3. Shigtastic
    3. Posted by Shigtastic Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:37 am EDT

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    Cal doesn't have a front four.
  4. Tom
    4. Posted by Tom Fri Sep 25, 2009 1:52 am EDT

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    Though Autzen is tough, and the fact that the last time in Eugene the Quacks came inches from tying Cal (not winning), UO has no OL or DL, and Masoli is nowhere near as good a passer as Dixon was. The Ducks will be tough at home, but I expect Best and the Cal running game to have its way, and on Defense the Bear's line will dominate and force Masoli out of his comfort zone. The Bears will win this by 10 on the road
  5. sycasey
    5. Posted by sycasey Fri Sep 25, 2009 2:00 am EDT

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    Cal plays a 3-4 defense, so technically they have a "front 3."
    My suspicion is that Oregon just isn't that good this year and will lose the battle along the front lines, so Cal should win. However, games between these two teams are usually very tight (2006 being the lone exception), so anything could happen.
  6. Spazzy McGee
    6. Posted by Spazzy McGee Fri Sep 25, 2009 4:27 am EDT

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    I'm a Bear fan, and Cal should win, but they won't. Dunno why, dunno how, but they won't win.
  7. Stephen
    7. Posted by Stephen Fri Sep 25, 2009 2:28 pm EDT

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    You are NOT a Bear fan, Spazzy McGee. Dunno why you say you are, dunno how you think you are, you just aren't.
    *****
    This is not the same Oregon team from season's past. They are in serious trouble and will not be able to keep up with Cal (on either side of the ball) for four quarters.
    Cal will either win this game in a major blowout, or it will be very close (three or fewer points). But, CAL WILL WIN this game.
    Go Bears!
  8. akaBen
    8. Posted by akaBen Fri Sep 25, 2009 6:41 pm EDT

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    i am a life long duck fan and i know that the California bears are going to win this game. it saddens me to think so but i just know they will. they are a great team and oregon will not be for at least a year or two. they are good but not national championship caliber yet. the only thing i hope is that when cal wins they dont pull their usual strategy a crash to end the season. then the pac 10 could possibly have a national title contender in cal and a good team in oregon who can play in the rose bowl and crush the big 10 again. sorry usc fans this is not your year. but there is one point i want to make if you are talking about how good the rush defense for cal is. look who they have faced. no player on any team they have faced has rushed for three hundred yards this season. whereas the ducks have faced a three hundred yard rusher in every game. except boise which has two two fifty plus rushers. including ralph bolden who has more yards then jahvid best. though without a doubt not as talented. and if you argue they haven't faced any big rushers because they have stopped the best rusher on all the opponents teams just look at the numbers. the cal defense has faced three teams, with the top two rushers from each team combined to equal 871 yards. 795 if you discount the games against cal. the oregon defense has faced three teams with the top two rushers on each team combining for 1553 yards, 1130 if you dont count the games against the ducks. that is 55.8 yards a game more for each of the top two running backs on the ducks opponents outside of the duck games. the ducks have faced far better competition week in and week out compared to the bears. so dont be surprised when the ducks push the bears to a last minute field goal. i know the ducks will lose but dont discount them as a good team. the bears are just great......... this year.
  9. Spazzy McGee
    9. Posted by Spazzy McGee Fri Sep 25, 2009 10:08 pm EDT

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    Stephen, your optimism is adorable. I wish I could share it but I have a firmer grasp of Cal football history ca. 1958-present.

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