It's not the kind of truism that'd show up on, say, an embroidered pillow, but that doesn't make it any less valid: If you're at the point where Baylor has become a "must-win game" for your program, something has gone horribly awry. That's precisely the situation Texas A&M finds itself in as coach Mike Sherman's second year draws to a close and a fresh 65-10 beating at the hands of Oklahoma -- the third straight year the Sooners have put the Aggies away by at least four touchdowns, and the tenth time in two years A&M has allowed at least 40 points in a loss -- continues to fester. With only two wins in their last seven games, the Aggies stand at 5-5 and have to beat the Bears to earn the first bowl invite of Sherman's tenure (and only their fourth bid in the past eight years).

If they don't beat Baylor this weekend, the Ags will have to get their sixth win against undefeated, third-ranked Texas on Thanksgiving night. Sherman's track record suggests this isn't likely, as he's lost his five games against ranked opponents (including last year's 49-9 loss to Texas, the most lopsided Longhorn win in the long history of the series) by an average of 26 points.

That's only part of the reason for Sherman's increasingly shaky status, though, the other part being that his teams aren't necessarily a lock to win the supposed gimme games, either. Sherman's tenure at A&M began with an embarrassing home loss to Arkansas State last year, and he finished his debut season 4-8 with squeakers over awful New Mexico and Army teams. This season, of course, his record has been tarnished by possibly the most humiliating loss any team has suffered this season, a 62-14 debacle at Kansas State, which had face-planted at Louisiana-Lafayette in September and in again in a 66-14 loss at Texas Tech just a week earlier.

And then there's last season's loss at Baylor, which all but sealed the deal on an 0-5 campaign against the rest of the Big XII South. Behind do-it-all quarterback Robert Griffin, Baylor rolled up a 41-7 lead in the third quarter before taking its foot off the gas and allowing the Aggies a couple of meaningless fourth-quarter scores to bring the final to 41-21. The loss has already solidified itself, to Aggie fans at least, as one of the more miserable low points in a decade that hasn't been terribly kind to A&M to begin with; imagine once-proud Florida State fans covering their heads in shame as Duke sends in its backups to sit on a four-touchdown lead and you've got a pretty good idea what the drubbing in Waco felt like to Aggie Nation.

The Ags do have some reason to believe that revenge can be exacted this weekend in College Station. The Bears lost Griffin just three games into the season with a knee injury and have struggled to score points in almost every game since (40-point outburst at Missouri excepted); life has been just as difficult on the other side of the ball, where the Bears have allowed almost 400 yards per game and will be facing an A&M offense still holding at eighth nationally in total yardage despite its recent frustrations.

Again, though, the concept of "revenge against Baylor" is itself an unfortunate comment on the state of the Aggie program. Opinions differ as to just how hot a seat Sherman is occupying at the moment; neither of the two A&M bloggers we grilled back in the summer for the inside dope on Sherman's status seemed to think he was in any real danger of getting fired after only two seasons. Among their caveats, though, were a minimum-expectations bar set at 6-6 and the unacceptability of another 0-5 run in division play. If A&M drops two in a row to Baylor with Texas looming, 6-6 becomes a near-impossibility and Sherman will be 1-8 against the rest of the South Division over two years, which, if not enough to get him fired this year, would almost certainly make 2010 an eight-wins-or-you're-toast sort of season.

That's just Sherman, though; on a macro level, a loss would have much greater implications for the proud Aggie fan base. The Aggies finished third in their division in 2006, fourth two years ago, and dead last in '08; regardless of the heritage and tradition attached to the A&M brand name, that trajectory is pretty hard to ignore, particularly when a loss this weekend would all but assure them of another last-place finish. That, in turn, would prompt discussions (in places far beyond the gloating Longhorn message boards) of whether the title of "division doormat" should be given a new home. Nobody who's ever been part of the "12th Man" at Kyle Field wants to think of their beloved Aggies as such, but that's the destination for teams that can't hold their own against Baylor, however vigorous the post-touchdown date-kissing or midnight yell practice.