I was hardly alone, but obviously I was way, way wrong back in August when I guessed Alabama's trip to Ole Miss Saturday would "have the most far-reaching stake" of any of the big SEC games on tap this weekend; South Carolina made quick work of that assumption two weeks ago, and gave Saturday's date in Oxford a whole different kind of urgency for the Rebels. Rather than playing its biggest home game in 40 years, the flop in Columbia has Ole Miss staring down the gun of a genuinely disappointing season, in the one year that was supposed to give it the best chance of breaking through after decades on the outside looking in.

That may seem like a bit of an overstatement for a team that's 3-1 and still has all its big games -- Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, LSU -- in front of it. But the South Carolina loss frankly threw the Rebels into the mystery bin. The defense has been exemplary, on paper, but not against an offense that ranks in the top 60 nationally; the offense has as many turnovers (4) in two SEC games as touchdowns and arguably hasn't played up to par yet. Ace quarterback Jevan Snead has been mediocre by every standard, offsetting three touchdown passes last week at Vanderbilt with three interceptions in the same game. If this team has any chance of the kind of season it expected, this is the game that has to kick off that run.

I don't mean that Ole Miss necessarily has to win to save its season, which would be a pretty dire thing to say before the halfway point. But I do think the Rebels have to play well and stand toe to toe with the Tide into the fourth quarter to avoid the sense that they're just another middle-of-the-pack outfit sitting at 1-2 in the conference. We know what we're going to get from 'Bama -- disciplined, aggressive defense that doesn't offer any big windows for Jevan Snead, opposite a pounding running game backed up by the occasional big strike downfield -- which is what makes the Tide such an effective measuring stick; they're one of a very small handful of the most consistent teams in the country so far, as effective against Virginia Tech as they are against Kentucky. If Ole Miss can legitimately compete with that, then perhaps its fate can still be more Virginia Tech than Kentucky.

It's interesting, though, that the precedent for a Rebel win is another of Houston Nutt's patented "crazy upsets," a la last year's win at Florida. If they don't have any better chance that that -- than to get a slew of fumbles, catch a break along the lines of a missed extra point and deliver an improbable defensive stop to win by the smallest possible margin -- then this team hasn't come as far from that point last September, when downing a national contender was a shock and frankly a bit of a fluke. Alabama has given no indication it can be had by fluke.

The Ole Miss that launched the bandwagon in the Cotton Bowl win over Texas Tech in January was balanced on offense, got after the quarterback on defense and made big plays for points in all three phases; that team had athletes Ole Miss isn't supposed to have, and the rare quarterback who could tie them all together. Those Rebels have yet to show their face through the first four games, especially on offense, and if they don't show for the biggest game of the year, at home, it will be time to relegate the expectations to the expansive Museum of Misguided Hype and dig in for just another mediocre edition of Ole Miss trying to get by.