Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:04 pm EST
Oklahoma-Texas mailbag!
A couple arguments from the inbox on everyone's favorite logjam.
[Subject: easy to figure out the big 12 south ...]Quality of wins and losses. ...
Wins: OU's win over Tech was impressive, but Texas has the only win among the three on a neutral field and they beat OU by a double-digit margin. Tech needed a miracle last minute play to win at home.
Losses: Texas lost on the last play of the game at the end of a brutal 4-week stretch. OU lost while fresh by double-digits and Tech didn't even show up on the road.
Clearly Texas is the more deserving team. To make it even simpler, Tech is such a non-factor away from home that it really boils down to Texas-OU. That was already decided on the field. Texas 45 - OU 35.
Hopefully this eases your headache.
Gary
Arguments that revolve around when teams play, where, or on intangibles like "showing up fresh" are woefully thin and I do not trust them under any circumstances. "Home field advantage" is among the most ephemeral and overrated concepts known to man and location is the last possible factor to consider, when all the real information -- excluding hot streaks, neutral fields and other bits of amateur psychology -- covering the entire season has been exhausted.
The entire head-to-head argument is out of context, but again, I point out that Texas Tech and Texas was "settled on the field," and literally no one still considers that result an adequate standard by which to compare Tech and Texas in the polls. There are eleven other games' worth of mitigating information. I'm not sure what makes the Raiders' winning touchdown in that game "a miracle," or what could possibly make them the No. 2 team in the nation on one field but not another, especially less than a month after throttling Kansas in Lawrence by six touchdowns for their fifth straight win outside of Lubbock. So if you're judging by a criteria called "quality of win," it doesn't get more quality than the show the Sooners put on Saturday. Get serious here: Exactly how many of Oklahoma's 65 points were attributable to "home field advantage"? Be precise.
In fact, another reader suggests that if its latest loss alone is responsible for rendering Texas Tech a "non-factor," just weeks removed from beating Texas and blowing out Oklahoma State, maybe the Sooners' rout was a little too impressive:
I don't think I've seen this topic mentioned anywhere, but for all those people (experts and random internet posters alike) who say Texas deserves the nod over Oklahoma, they're obviously saying that Tech doesn't deserve to be in the discussion at all, and then are simply looking at head-to-head (something somewhat understandable). What I find so ironic though is that Tech isn't being given a chance because Oklahoma just destroyed them. Wouldn't everyone's head-to-head argument not be any kind of valid if Tech didn't get so humiliated? So these people would've given Oklahoma a better chance if they had only beaten Tech by 10 or so points instead of demolishing them?
Any thoughts on this?
Amos
I think this is true to a very large extent for anyone arguing that Texas' head-to-head claim should still trump everything else: Oklahoma so thoroughly pantsed Texas Tech that Tech is gone, left for dead, and not even in the discussion the way it would be if the Raiders had looked somewhat competitive in Norman. In that case, there really would be three teams in the picture, not just two, and the head-to-head logjam would be obvious for the logical farce it is.
I dissent from this somewhat, though, because I don't think the Raiders are out of the picture -- they can still go on to play in and win the Big 12 Championship if Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State. And if it comes down to 12-1, Big 12 champion Texas Tech against an 11-1 Texas team the Raiders defeated, what becomes of the Longhorns' head-to-head argument then? I suspect in that case that Oklahoma's win would suddenly begin to look more and more impressive.
I want to let you know I share your rage at the ridiculous logic being used to put Texas ahead of the other Big XII teams. Every Monday I breeze through my reader that includes a large number of Blogpoll blogs and am just blown away at some of the explanations. It's embarrassing how many people are using the "but Texas beat OU" logic instead of, you know, actually looking at all three of the teams.
[...]
Also, as a Penn State guy I'm a little annoyed at the dismissive manner in which USC is being ranked ahead of Penn State. That is the single biggest roadblock for Penn State to get in the MNC via some type of sky is falling chain of events over the next couple of weeks. I'm not saying they shouldn't be, but I don't think I've read anywhere someone attempt to actually justify it. I mean if you look at common opponents Ohio State and Oregon State, plus the remaining schedules, I'm not sure I understand why just about everyone ... has USC>PSU. Although I would argue OSU might not actually be a common opponent considering OSU didn't play Pryor (much) or Wells (at all) in LA.Anyway, this weekend will make or brake the chaos we all desperately crave. I'm looking forward to it.
Kevin
On the first part of this message, I should clarify that it's not "Texas over Oklahoma" that gets me worked up, because there's a legitimate case for Texas; I'm still not sure which team I'll have in front on my Blog Poll ballot on Wednesday morning, and whoever gets left out of the Big 12 Championship based on opinion polls will be egregiously wronged either way. As Kevin says, my ire is directed at the logic of ranking Texas ahead of Oklahoma solely because of the head-to-head result, when Texas Tech's win over UT and Oklahoma's huge win over Tech renders that line of argument moot. If you're going to argue for Texas (or anyone else), it has to be based on the entire body of work.
As for USC and Penn State, put them side-by-side:
I'd love to see the Trojans and Lions match up in the Rose Bowl, because based on their resumés, they're pretty equal. Trouncing Michigan State was a huge boost to Penn State, and I think the Lions' top three/four wins may be slightly better than USC's top three/four; the losses are pretty comparable, too. I agree that Penn State got a better version of Ohio State, with Terrelle Pryor and Beanie Wells at full speed, than USC did, though I wouldn't take that difference into account in any "official" ranking. If I was ordering them right now, I'd put USC ahead because it's played a slightly tougher schedule (according to Jeff Sagarin's math, as seen in the "Sked" column), but I don't buy the inferiority complex in the Big Ten, especially as wide as some of Penn State's margins have been over teams like Oregon State, Wisconsin and Michigan State, and I think that would be a blockbuster, championship-worthy bowl game. But Oregon has to do its part against Oregon State Saturday to make that happen.
Dr. Saturday
Matt Hinton
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301 Comments
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2.75
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Any other decision to put one team over another is PURELY subjective.
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It is simply impossible to dispense so easily with the significance of home field. I will need to do research on this but I'm quite certain OU has a much better winning percentage and has displayed greater statistical dominance at home. Anecdotally last year's struggel in Ames springs to mind. Further, there can be no question but that playing numerous difficult games in a row is an important consideration, particularly so for college kids. It is not only reasonable but essential to take this into consideration in deciding on you rankings.
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the question is, will the talking heads suddenly pump up texas tech if oklahoma loses to oklahoma state? if not, why? texas tech did settle it on the field.
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If OU demolished an "over-rated" Tech team, than what does that say about Texas' only loss on the year?... Meanwhile, OU's only loss on the year was to a team who was ranked 5th at the time, rather than the Texas loss that came at the hands of an overrated #7 (at the time) team. Tech's loss was between teams ranked only 3 poll positions apart.. Too bad they were demolished
The only way to rank these teams apart from each other is first by the other common opponents, then by the Big 12 games, then by the Non Conference games.
A good indicator would be Oklahoma State who Texas squeaked by and Tech destroyed. How will OU fare? And if OU wins big, does that mean OK. State is now 'overrated' because they have losses at the hands of a number 1,2,and 2 team (at the time of playing). If it does devalue OK state, then it devalues Texas' modest victory.
"but how can you look at each win and determine the value"
Don't look at final scores, study each game. This will take lots of time but hopefully the pollsters realize it will take some effort to back up whatever decisions they make.
Does no one remember how Tech seemingly dominated Texas that entire game. As an impartial fan, I had no doubt that Tech was going to win that game even after Texas went up. The game wasn't really that close.
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1. did they beat any number one team???????
2. did they have strong schedlue than texas??????
3. by the way did they beat texas ????????
4. By how many point did they loose with texas???
5. how texas lost with tech?????
6. did texas beat oklahoma convincingly???
7. did tech beat texas convincingly???????
Give only one reason which support sooner!!!!!!!!
I know I do not like this BCS system either...........but man why the hell this boby boy crying like woman......
I telling you now Texas is 10 time better than OU........If they play again texas will kill them by 30 points.......
Look how texas play..........Most of the fourth quarter they bench the McCoy..........
Look how OU play............they play whole 60 minutes to get extra points.............
Common stoopy boy ..............don't be stupid...........I have lots of respect for you and you don't want to loose that......
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ACC and SEC:
The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the conclusion of regular season games shall be the divisional representative in the ACC Championship Game, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the ACC Championship Game. Texas wins here.
Big East: Same as Big XII
Big Ten - Looks to be the teams that played the most games against FCS (Tech) is eliminated and then it goes to head to head. It's pretty convoluted, though. Texas wins here.
Pac 10 - The tiebreaker would tick through the teams in order of record until one team had a better record. This would favor Texas who beat Mizzou, but probably not fair since OU and Tech didn't play them. Goes to BCS after that.
Anyway, just think it's a worthy (if not winning) argument.
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Texas got wacked in first half by tech but find the way to win them but at last seconds time favors tech........thats all.
If you want some more point stoopy boy
8. Is texas lost at road or neutral field??
9. OU was lucky that Texas play tech earlier........other wise they would have been smacked with the tech..........
10.How many day you get time to prepare to play tech............I gues it was like a month right............
only thing it irritate me is OU should be in North division..........so that they can beat everybody not here in south .......you stoopy boy..........
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And you know this because you played college football? I've seen a ton of bad reasoning and logic the last two days, but that one wins the prize.
If Oklahoma loses this Saturday and Texas Tech wins out, I will seriously look forward to seeing what argument Texas fans can come up with to be ranked ahead of Tech. Same number of losses, a head-to-head victory, and a conference title.
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Personally, I'm rooting for the SEC nightmare scenario where Florida wins out, but still can't crack the top 2 because the computers have shafted them so bad (seriously, look how far back they are). If they split the #1 vote with OU and UT is a strong #3, that could create a Texas-OU rematch in Miami and a complete meltdown in the SEC. Mmmmmmm.... good.
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"I telling you now Texas is 10 time better than OU........If they play again texas will kill them by 30 points......."
Any real Texas fan would NOT want to play OU right now. If you proposed this:
"Let's eliminate Tech from this controversy on one condition, you must play OU this weekend in a winner take all Big 12 South showdown"
Guarantee you they'd rather take their shot at the sway of pollsters
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HOWEVER, I smell chaos on the horizon. So all of this arguing bw UT and OU may become moot in a couple of weeks. PSU and USC are not out of the title picture yet. It seems to be a foregone conclusion that Mizzou(a team that can beat ANYONE on a given night) will just roll over to whomever they play win the BIG 12 Champ game. It also seem to be a certainty that my beloved AU Tigers will just play dead and let hated BAMA go undefeated(AU has won 6 in a row, let me reiterate, that's SIX in a row), AU/BAMA will be a fairly low scoring slugfest that will be determined by turnovers and mistakes and could go either way if AU catches some breaks. No one gives FSU a chance either. FSU has improved and HATES the recent success of its bitter rivals at UF. Although UF has looked great recently, a win in Tallahassee will be difficult. BAYLOR is a dangerous offensive team and will likely play a classic Big 12 shootout against TTech. OSU has a great shot to beat OU also. I think chaos, similar to last year, could be right around the corner and I love it.
Why would anyone(except for outside the BCS conferences of course) want a playoff? The storylines in college football are amazing. You can't make this stuff up. The NFL is BORING Vote NO for a playoff.
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What if ut/ou wasn't on a neutral field? Who knows? They never play each other at home. Who does that hurt? Tech is at a disadvantage here because they are forced to play one or the other (ut/ou) on the road. Ut/Ou in the cotton bowl is pretty much a home game for both with 50,000 fans on each side and both teams comfortable there playing year after year. Then when it comes down to arguing, they can say "but we have a neutral field win". How would Ou do in front of 100,000 longhorns in a true road game? How would Ut do in Norman? Who knows? They chose to schedule it that way. What if they played 10 more times? Ridiculous argument with way too many factors to consider. What if they played a different week during the season? Yeah, the outcome would be totally different in each case. We could pose "what if" questions all day and come to the conclusion that each of the three teams is better than the other, if only some things were different. But that changes nothing in reality.
Everyone is using speculation as "fact" and skewing their argument to make it sound better.
What we have is a three way tie. TIE. Each team has gotten their business done and sits at 10-1. Each has impressive wins and a loss to each other. That is a TIE. Everything from here on out is perception and a popularity contest. You cannot use one head-to-head argument while totally dismissing another. If Tech did not have an identical record to Ut, it would be valid.
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Its pretty self-evident that maintaining the kind of intensity it would take to win big games is difficult to maintain. We can look at how flat Alabama appeared after Georgia or LSU's lackluster effort against Kentucky and I'm certain many others. Indeed, a cursory look at your own activities will, I'm sure show this undulating tendency although this will generally have less of an impact on outcomes.
To be sure the intensity thing can work in reverse (eg. Giants last year, Tech v. OSU)
If Oklahoma wins at OSU (their biggest margin in the stoops era is 6 points) that will make their case stronger. In the even of an upset Tech will have a much more diffiuclt but not insurmountable argument against Texas.
For the record, I may be the only person in the country who is a fan of both Texas and OU and I'm kind of intrigued by Leache's Pirate act as well. Further, as I said in my original comment, putting OU ahead of Texas even now is perfectly reasonable. The only thing I'm suggesting is that the totality of cirucmstances must be considered.
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that's my 2 cents!
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That's a puzzling statement, given that home field advantage (i) is real, (ii) has been comparatively well studied, and (iii) has a measurable effect on strength of schedule and thus wins and losses -- if two evenly matched teams play, the home team wins 55-60% of the time. (Gamblers would kill for that winning percentage.) Saying that you should consider the entire body of work is a red herring -- of course you do, but that doesn't mean what you did against UT Chattanooga, provided you weren't in danger of losing, carries more than a fraction of the weight of what you did against the Longhorns and the Red Raiders. If Oklahoma had beaten Tech in a close game, the sites of the games would carry significant weight for Texas's argument. 65-21 makes that look flimsy, though.
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