Thu Feb 12, 2009 2:36 pm EST
As an avowed, unabashedly partisan New Orleans Saints fan, I almost choked with glee on my midday Mike and Ikes when I read Mel Kiper's suggestion to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on spending the 19th pick of the first round in April's draft:
By that time, top quarterback prospects such as Georgia's Matthew Stafford and Southern California's Mark Sanchez likely will be gone, but Kiper believes the Bucs could be in position to land a quality quarterback in the middle of the first round.
"Maybe a Josh Freeman out of Kansas State is a quarterback they think seriously about at that point," Kiper said.
[...]
"The biggest thing Tampa Bay has to do is figure out who is going to be their quarterback," Kiper said. "This may be the time to get somebody in the first round and commit to that guy, look forward. And if Josh Freeman turns out to be that guy worthy to be the 19th pick, it would be somebody you'd have to consider." [Emphasis added]
I wrote a colleague somewhat familiar with Freeman's career for his reaction to Kiper's suggestion -- which is, for the record, "Josh Freeman is a quarterback you have to think seriously about in the first round" -- to which he responded (and I quote),
"BWAAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAHHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHHAHAH"
That echoes not only my reaction but that of most of the Big 12, I would think, outside of Iowa State and Texas A&M, the only teams Kansas State managed to defeat in-conference last year. I mean, Freeman is huge, and had a lot of hype coming out of high school, and his numbers improved every year. He even led a pair of upsets over Texas as a freshman and sophomore (albeit with an unusual amount of help from turnovers and special teams in both instances). I'm sure he can throw the ball like a thousand yards.
But I was also under the impression the first round was reserved for elite players, and Freeman has never remotely qualified for that:

But then, I'm making the classic mistake of assuming actual results on the field have any bearing on a player's projection to the next level, which clearly has never been the case once the measuring tape comes out. No, you should probably just ignore everything you've seen the last three years: Josh Freeman will go on the first day, Tim Tebow will be a tight end and I will continue to have no idea what I'm talking about when it comes to the draft because there is no translation whatsoever.
Just remember who called it when Freeman kills an entire section by dislodging the skull on Raymond James' giant pirate ship with an errant throw.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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21 Comments
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Then on ESPN this morning Freeman was rated as the #3 QB (#4 was Nate Davis of Ball State). And of course Kiper was comparing Stafford to Brett Favre and complimenting him on running up great numbers despite the fact that Georgia had no offensive talent to speak of other than Moreno.
Every time I try to watch the NFL I feel like I fell from the moon. Geaux Saints, though, I guess.
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EVERYONE was wrong about Ryan Leaf. It's not like Kiper was the only one calling him a great prospect, so you can't knock all his opinions based on that. He evaluates TALENT.
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I read somewhere(prob here) that most college QBs make only 2 or 3 'NFL' throws a game. Sometimes it just has to be on measurables. His stats are not very impressive but if he has the arm and can make the throws in shorts then he will go high, rightly or wrongly.
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Good point PurdueMatt, you completly changed my opinion.
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I think the Kansas defense (against whom he had 1 TD to 9 picks) gelded him one of those years.
Take Nate Davis in R2 and hope for the best.
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NFL Scouts are in the business of trying to evaluate players independent of context. It's a difficult job, and of course they won't hit 100% of the time. As long as you operate under the assumption that the spread doesn't prepare quarterbacks to play under center and inflates their numbers, evaluating isn't too much of a guessing game for the average fan.
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Beanie Wells, Defensive Lineman, or my first choice is Percy Harvin.
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As I sometimes do, since I hate rewriting things I've already written about, I'll borrow my thoughts from a previous thread.
"First, you mentioned the talent around him, specifically naming Jordy Nelson from last season. Last season, he finished with his highest completion percentage (63.3%), in large part due to the fact that he actually had a legit receiver to throw to. He was also very consistent with this percentage, with a game low of 55.6% (Colorado) and a game high of 70.6% (Oklahoma State).
This year, his #1 receiver, Brandon Banks (Jr, 67-1049-9) is listed at 5-7 142. His #2, Deon Murphy (Sr, 37-555-6) is listed at a monstrous 5-10 170. If these guy didn't get wide open, they did not have the ability to make catches over defensive backs, forcing Freeman to either throw the ball away or make a throw he shouldn't.
In addition, the running game that averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, dropped to 3.9 yards per carry this year, and he accounted for over 25% of the yards (404 of 1590) and over 50% of the rushing TDs (14 of 26) by himself. (To compare, last year he rushed for -40 yards and 4 TDs)
He also has no offensive line to speak of, so he was constantly making these plays with pressure in his face.
Despite it all, his TD-INT ration has drastically improved from 6-15 as a TRUE freshman to 18-11 last year as a sophomore to 20-8 this past season, his sack totals have steadily gone down from 25 to 17 to 15, his yards per attempt have steadily gone up from 6.59 to 6.72 to 7.71, and most importantly, his QB efficiency rating has steadily gone up from 103.45 to 127.26 to 136.48."
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