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As an avowed, unabashedly partisan New Orleans Saints fan, I almost choked with glee on my midday Mike and Ikes when I read Mel Kiper's suggestion to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on spending the 19th pick of the first round in April's draft:

By that time, top quarterback prospects such as Georgia's Matthew Stafford and Southern California's Mark Sanchez likely will be gone, but Kiper believes the Bucs could be in position to land a quality quarterback in the middle of the first round.

"Maybe a Josh Freeman out of Kansas State is a quarterback they think seriously about at that point," Kiper said.
[...]
"The biggest thing Tampa Bay has to do is figure out who is going to be their quarterback," Kiper said. "This may be the time to get somebody in the first round and commit to that guy, look forward. And if Josh Freeman turns out to be that guy worthy to be the 19th pick, it would be somebody you'd have to consider." [Emphasis added]

I wrote a colleague somewhat familiar with Freeman's career for his reaction to Kiper's suggestion -- which is, for the record, "Josh Freeman is a quarterback you have to think seriously about in the first round" -- to which he responded (and I quote),

"BWAAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAHHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHHAHAH"

That echoes not only my reaction but that of most of the Big 12, I would think, outside of Iowa State and Texas A&M, the only teams Kansas State managed to defeat in-conference last year. I mean, Freeman is huge, and had a lot of hype coming out of high school, and his numbers improved every year. He even led a pair of upsets over Texas as a freshman and sophomore (albeit with an unusual amount of help from turnovers and special teams in both instances). I'm sure he can throw the ball like a thousand yards.

But I was also under the impression the first round was reserved for elite players, and Freeman has never remotely qualified for that:

But then, I'm making the classic mistake of assuming actual results on the field have any bearing on a player's projection to the next level, which clearly has never been the case once the measuring tape comes out. No, you should probably just ignore everything you've seen the last three years: Josh Freeman will go on the first day, Tim Tebow will be a tight end and I will continue to have no idea what I'm talking about when it comes to the draft because there is no translation whatsoever.

Just remember who called it when Freeman kills an entire section by dislodging the skull on Raymond James' giant pirate ship with an errant throw.

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21 Comments

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  1. The Thrilla in Vanilla
    1. Posted by The Thrilla in Vanilla Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:01 pm EDT

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    Tebow will not be a tight end. He will be a missionary, pursue God's work, and lead a happy, albeit NFL-free, life.
  2. IchiDeath
    2. Posted by IchiDeath Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:22 pm EDT

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    You have to think there might be a couple of QBs taken in Round 1 who normally would be a 2/3 Round guy, mostly because there are at least 4 or 5 teams needing QB help and only 2 (and maybe only 1, Stafford seems to be dropping on some draft boards) worth taking.
  3. 4.0 Point Stance
    3. Posted by 4.0 Point Stance Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:55 pm EDT

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    I talked to an NFL fan who was talking about Josh Freeman's NFL future. I assumed he meant like a 7th round pick, or an undrafted free agent. I was floored to hear him talking about him as a second rounder.
    Then on ESPN this morning Freeman was rated as the #3 QB (#4 was Nate Davis of Ball State). And of course Kiper was comparing Stafford to Brett Favre and complimenting him on running up great numbers despite the fact that Georgia had no offensive talent to speak of other than Moreno.
    Every time I try to watch the NFL I feel like I fell from the moon. Geaux Saints, though, I guess.
  4. chris
    4. Posted by chris Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:17 pm EDT

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    mel kiper is a joke. he's famous for picking some of the biggest flops in the NFL. He's just on the WWL to hear himself talk. Todd McShay actually knows what he's talking about and has some scouting background. All Kiper did was write a book and get lucky back in the 80's. Any one remember what he said about Ryan Leaf
  5. mikez34
    5. Posted by mikez34 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:20 pm EDT

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    Freeman is a stud, he just had a bad coach and not much help around him at K State. I wish he would stay for his senior year, but he has the tools to be good in the NFL. You are right though, Tebow will not be an NFL QB. WILL NOT. He will be lucky to be taken in the 3rd round.
    EVERYONE was wrong about Ryan Leaf. It's not like Kiper was the only one calling him a great prospect, so you can't knock all his opinions based on that. He evaluates TALENT.
  6. 4.0 Point Stance
    6. Posted by 4.0 Point Stance Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:55 pm EDT

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    Yes, mikez, he evaluates TALENT.... poorly.
  7. Adam M
    7. Posted by Adam M Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    I still don't understand how this guy is rated higher that Graham Harrel, that guy is a monster and played in pro style spread offense, where half of these guys are going to get lost when it comes to the next level. I say all of these QBs coming out this year with an exception of maybe 2 of them will be busts just like Joey Harrington.
  8. PurdueMatt
    8. Posted by PurdueMatt Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:11 pm EDT

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    Freeman is not a stud.
  9. John McCarron
    9. Posted by John McCarron Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:34 pm EDT

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    Harrell did not play in a pro style offense. Most years every QB except 2 or 3 are failures.
    I read somewhere(prob here) that most college QBs make only 2 or 3 'NFL' throws a game. Sometimes it just has to be on measurables. His stats are not very impressive but if he has the arm and can make the throws in shorts then he will go high, rightly or wrongly.
  10. mikez34
    10. Posted by mikez34 Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:20 pm EDT

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    Just because a guy has talent doesn't mean he will use it. Ryan Leaf had talent, there is no disputing that. Once he got his payday he was lazy, didn't put in the time, and couldn't handle the pressure so he failed. They can only project so much. I'm not saying Kiper is a genius, but he's better than a lot of the "experts" out there.
    Good point PurdueMatt, you completly changed my opinion.
  11. mangere_bridge
    11. Posted by mangere_bridge Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:12 pm EDT

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    "Freeman is not a stud."
    I think the Kansas defense (against whom he had 1 TD to 9 picks) gelded him one of those years.
    Take Nate Davis in R2 and hope for the best.
  12. Freddy J
    12. Posted by Freddy J Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:59 pm EDT

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    I haven't even heard of Freemen until now and im a huge college football fan. if freemen does get drafted in the first round by a team who needs a starting QB he has to step up his game more than anybody or he's going to have a spot on the bench with his name on it. i just saw his numbers, not that impressive. he has an NFL type body but does he have NFL skill (cough Alex Smith cough)
  13. al
    13. Posted by al Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:30 pm EDT

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    You walk to talk about mediocrity- I thought the analysts all loved Curtis Painter, but he's not even in Mel's top four...
  14. Year2
    14. Posted by Year2 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:28 pm EDT

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    Freeman is like JaMarcus Russell, only worse. I hope the Bucs don't waste a pick on him, and Raheem Morris at least so far seems smart enough not to fall for it.
  15. leo taxil
    15. Posted by leo taxil Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:26 pm EDT

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    Freeman, to his credit, was stuck on some bad teams. I don't think Jay Cutler had elite statistics at Vanderbilt either.
    NFL Scouts are in the business of trying to evaluate players independent of context. It's a difficult job, and of course they won't hit 100% of the time. As long as you operate under the assumption that the spread doesn't prepare quarterbacks to play under center and inflates their numbers, evaluating isn't too much of a guessing game for the average fan.
  16. Its Nothin
    16. Posted by Its Nothin Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:38 pm EDT

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    They dont even mention Pat White, i dont care if he runs he still plays quarterback.I think its unfair to judge a player based on an option system and move him down, stats dont lie!!
  17. JEFFY BEAR
    17. Posted by JEFFY BEAR Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:34 pm EDT

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    Wheres Joe Ganz?
  18. jody
    18. Posted by jody Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:37 pm EDT

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    Freeman is as good as any QB in this draft, his talent level is through the roof, and dont forget the new Bucs coach is his old coordinator..
  19. jswfsec3
    19. Posted by jswfsec3 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:43 pm EDT

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    I think the Bucs have their Q-Back of the future in Josh Johnson. Almost every Q-Back coming into the NFL need a time to develope. Don't think that teams will enjoy the success as a few teams did in 2008. That was one of the fluke years for rookie Q-Backs. There is always a learning curve associated with most picks outside of Running Backs, and Offensive linemen. I think that the Buc's should go with a Defensive End, Running Back, or a Wide Receiver who can come in and play immeiately. I also think that Mel Kipper has been wrong morer than he has been right. The Draft is not an exact science. Ask the New York Jets.
  20. William
    20. Posted by William Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    Josh Freeman, who is he? You can best guage the future success of a Quarterback by what he has done in the past (ie, winning program, either major, or small college). I believe Quarterback should be able to inspire their team mates as Tem Tebow does. I don't know if Josh Freeman has that capability. It is something that you can't teach, but is inate. If the Bucs do draft him, and I don't think they will, I hope it is not before the third (3) round.
    Beanie Wells, Defensive Lineman, or my first choice is Percy Harvin.
  21. Bo Regard
    21. Posted by Bo Regard Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:03 pm EDT

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    Thoughts on Freeman from someone who actually watched him:
    As I sometimes do, since I hate rewriting things I've already written about, I'll borrow my thoughts from a previous thread.
    "First, you mentioned the talent around him, specifically naming Jordy Nelson from last season. Last season, he finished with his highest completion percentage (63.3%), in large part due to the fact that he actually had a legit receiver to throw to. He was also very consistent with this percentage, with a game low of 55.6% (Colorado) and a game high of 70.6% (Oklahoma State).
    This year, his #1 receiver, Brandon Banks (Jr, 67-1049-9) is listed at 5-7 142. His #2, Deon Murphy (Sr, 37-555-6) is listed at a monstrous 5-10 170. If these guy didn't get wide open, they did not have the ability to make catches over defensive backs, forcing Freeman to either throw the ball away or make a throw he shouldn't.
    In addition, the running game that averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, dropped to 3.9 yards per carry this year, and he accounted for over 25% of the yards (404 of 1590) and over 50% of the rushing TDs (14 of 26) by himself. (To compare, last year he rushed for -40 yards and 4 TDs)
    He also has no offensive line to speak of, so he was constantly making these plays with pressure in his face.
    Despite it all, his TD-INT ration has drastically improved from 6-15 as a TRUE freshman to 18-11 last year as a sophomore to 20-8 this past season, his sack totals have steadily gone down from 25 to 17 to 15, his yards per attempt have steadily gone up from 6.59 to 6.72 to 7.71, and most importantly, his QB efficiency rating has steadily gone up from 103.45 to 127.26 to 136.48."

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