Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

There were a few top teams with wide gaps in human opinion and computer opinion in the first BCS standings, including, prominently, Texas Tech: the Raiders were sixth and seventh, respectively, in the human polls (and eighth in the AP), ahead of Georgia, Ohio State, LSU and, depending on the poll, Florida and fellow Big 12 South unbeaten Oklahoma State, but only 11th according to the computers. What are the algorithms picking up that we aren't?

There was a story after the Raiders had finished thoroughly eviscerating SMU in which Mike Leach said something along the lines of, "it's going to be a long year," and it seemed like one of Leach's "hey, check out the crazy coach" moments. Who complains about dropped passes after winning 43-7?

The answer: a coach who's honest about how truly awful his opponent was, and who knows what lies ahead: at Kansas, back home against Texas and Oklahoma State and at Oklahoma. Four straight games against teams in the top 20; combined record: 25-3, where two of the three losses (Kansas' to Oklahoma and Oklahoma's to Texas) are to teams in the same group. All four have offenses that are passing and scoring nearly in step with Tech's pinball machine, against tougher schedules. The Raiders haven't played Kansas much -- certainly not the current, rankable edition of the Jayhawks -- but against the three South Division rivals under their current head coaches, Leach's teams are 4-15, and 0-10 on the road, with those trips to Lawrence and Norman looming.

No team has a schedule built for success like the Raiders, but no team in the top ten has proven less almost two-thirds of the way through the season. They're opening up as two-point underdogs at Kansas for a reason: the only numbers that are going to matter a month from now are the ones Tech puts up between now and then.

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  1. M
    1. Posted by M Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:24 pm EDT

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    IF Tech gets by Kansas, they get killed by Texas in Lubbock. Period. Bye-bye.
  2. TexasTechB
    2. Posted by TexasTechB Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:29 pm EDT

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    TexasMike,
    We will just have to see about that bold prediction. The past 3- years UT has struggled against Texas Tech. This year could prove to be the team that can finally be able to beat the Horns. And the game is in Lubbock....
    NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!!!
  3. Raider
    3. Posted by Raider Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:25 pm EDT

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    Amazes me how much disrespect the ole double T gets. We run a spread offense that every labels a system. Yet nearly half of college football runs a 'spread' offense now. There was a 4-5 point difference between Human and computer polls for Tech. There was a 4 point difference for Penn State. Penn states SOS is 15 positions WORSE than Tech's and they have played a top 25 team.What does that tell you about the rest of their schedule. They were behind to Michigan this weekend at half just like Tech was to A&M, BUT they were at HOME. Penn State is running the "Spread HD", but its not a system offense. I guess if Joe Pa or Bobby B were the coach at Tech we would be ranked in the top 5.
  4. Raider
    4. Posted by Raider Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:25 pm EDT

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    And to TexasMike, you should be worried about OSU, not Tech.
  5. Michael
    5. Posted by Michael Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:58 pm EDT

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    Texas Tech has let down in the past...but honestly UT isn't all that. Yes, they are #1....for now....but this year #1 has been a curse to anyone that has held it. OK State has a very good chance of taking care of the horns in Austin. They are always counted out like the Raiders are....all attention in Oklahoma goes to the Sooners.
    TexasMike don't be so quick to judge...football is a game about smarts....Texas Tech has been able to do it so far and even if they do get beaten by Texas...it's fine...it's been one of their best years....Texas' time is coming...if it's not by OSU or the Raiders...usually the Aggies no matter how bad they suck can give Texas a run for their money and at times a loss.
  6. the reds
    6. Posted by the reds Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:53 pm EDT

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    Texas Tech hasn't played perfect but talk about a team that gets no benefit of the doubt, at least they've WON all the games they were supposed to so far. If Tech loses to Ole Miss at home or to Oregon State I wonder if they're still in the Top 15, i doubt it. I like their chances against Kansas and I'm glad they're the underdog...that means some unranked team doesn't havea chip on their shoulder and is trying to make their season by beating them. Here'sa team with something to lose. Tech has a point in their season where they always start firing on all cylinders and it hasnt happeend yet. They may be peaking at the exact right time.
  7. Tom R
    7. Posted by Tom R Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:25 pm EDT

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    I agree with the reds...if they had lost or even played those teams close they would not be where they are...the red raiders get no respect at all...never have...it is time for them to win and prove they deserve that respect...what other team BEATS one of their in state rivals by 18 and MOVES DOWN in the polls...ridiculous...
  8. Stirling S
    8. Posted by Stirling S Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:08 pm EDT

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    I have seen every home game that the Raiders have played. LIve and in person. I would say that they are much more capable than they appear, They seem to be coasting at about half-throttle in intensity. I think they have the capability to beat and/or hang with KU, UT, OSU and OU. But, they will have to kick it big time and get their collective head out. It ought to be a barn-burner here in Lubbock when UT comes up on the Llano Estacado. Nothing like this awesome Fall weather with the beer, brats, BBQ, and a TTU-UT game in town.
  9. JosephineTX
    9. Posted by JosephineTX Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

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    I keep wanting to respect Tech. Year after year I've waited for them to join the elite of the Big 12, but they've never quite made it yet. The defense has been improving, though. Could this be the year? I think they can beat Kansas and OSU, but honestly, I'll be totally surprised if they beat Texas or OU. It's just a matter of playing in a really tough conference.
    If Tech is looking for national prominence, though, I think they have to start playing a tougher non-conference schedule. I think part of the reason they don't get more respect is that we hardly ever see them play a good team from outside the Big 12. But I remember a couple of years when they beat Cal in the Holiday Bowl....totally awesome!
  10. DanielW
    10. Posted by DanielW Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:04 pm EDT

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    All of you pro-Tech comments are based on what Tech could do this season. But the fact of the matter is that Tech is not a proven team and is only in the Top ten because they are an undefeated team in one of the top two conferences in football. If Ole Miss was undefeated this year they would be just where Tech is. Also, remember, Vandy was undefeated and they were only 13 while Tech was in the Top Ten. Tech is not the only team that has to overcome an unproven past. If Tech can win half of their last games or even make them respectable then they will deserve more credit. We will see what happens but history can tell us that they will more than likely lose.
  11. REDRAIDERS #1
    11. Posted by REDRAIDERS #1 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:12 pm EDT

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    I have seen every Tech game this year either in person (Eastern Wash., UMass, SMU, Nebraska & A&M), on television (K-State) or on the internet (Nevada). Tech has played mediocre at best this season. Tech is a team full of upperclassmen that are ready to explode onto the Big 12 scene with big wins over Kansas Saturday, and Texas and Oklahoma at home. We will be playing for the Big 12 South Title in Norman and Yes I will be at that game. Tech never gets the respect that they deserve. Everyone wants Tech to prove that they should be respected... well watch out the next five weeks because we are going to raise some eyebrows in Lubbock, TX.
  12. lanaeh2003
    12. Posted by lanaeh2003 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:56 pm EDT

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    TT is not an overly special team - they really should have lost to Nebraska, which thoroughly outplayed them. But for one unfortunate mistake in OT, that game was Nebraska's. Nebraska is not a great team, but they did expose TT as not a great team, as well. At least not a top 10 great team!
  13. touchdowntony
    13. Posted by touchdowntony Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:16 pm EDT

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    You know why TT can get beat by Kansas? All KU has to do is play as well as Nebraska did, minus an INT in overtime. NU had more total yardage than TT, more first downs (29 to 16...incredible), and Joe Ganz passed for more yardage than Graham Harrell...?!? How does THAT happen? Todd Reesing is better than Ganz, of course, and if the Jayhawks have the advantage of "time of possession" that NU did, then, in a close game: KU wins by a touchdown.
  14. CAReed
    14. Posted by CAReed Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:19 pm EDT

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    the biggest difference with this year's tech team is that they are willing the games that they are supposed to win. granted, some of these games have been ugly wins and they could get even uglier before the season is over. so, all i have to say is this: what do you call a tech that struggles and struggles and wins the games in a ugly manner? national champions......
  15. david r
    15. Posted by david r Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    Have you ever played a game with someone who really sucked? For example playing basketball with someone who is not very good, it messes with your game and its hard to take it very serious. Not that you dont want to win but the intensity is not there. People are so quick to dismiss the HUGE wins that Tech has had the the last few years but they are sooo quick to judge us if we score a lot of points on a crapy team but if we dont score 70pts plus on a team people say that we have not proved anything? How about KU or Hawaiim or Utah...maybe people who dont give Tech respect have not looked into the type of schedules those teams have had when everyone seemed to just praise them and say these are such "great" teams. Give us those types of schedules and we would run the table every year. But We are part of the Big 12 were power house live and have had a VERY long time to recruit.
    Oh yeah and for all the haters...We are the only team that has been bowl eligible since the biq 12 started, we are 4th in the nation with the longest winning seasons, oh yeah and ut fans...we have a 30-5 home record since 2003 ask OU about how hard we play at home.(beat ou last two time they came to visit)..But no one happens to mention that do they?
  16. spankydoodletoo
    16. Posted by spankydoodletoo Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:34 pm EDT

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    Oh I don't know. TT was beaten by Nebraska and managed to win when the Huskers made an OT error. NU beat TT in nearly every way statistically and TT knows they got away with one....just barely.
  17. krebstar303
    17. Posted by krebstar303 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:53 pm EDT

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    aggy sucks again this year, so who cares who wins the big 12?
  18. Lubbockite
    18. Posted by Lubbockite Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:56 pm EDT

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    Krebstar, in answer to your question, the only people that care who wins the Big 12 are those who care about college football, as the Big 12 is by far the best conference in the nation, and in particular the Big 12 south division (with UT, TTU, OU, and OSU). At this point, pretty much anyone with one eye and half a brain should expect to see the eventual national champion come out of the Big 12 south, with the smart money on UT or OU. That being said, Texas Tech holds the keys to their own destiny, and if they are somehow able to win out the rest of their season or even finish with just one loss, especially if they win the Big 12 championship, they would likely play for the national title. Even though I'm a Texas Tech fan, I think it's great for college football to have such an exciting November lined up in the Big 12, regardless of the outcome.
  19. Trojans for Ever!
    19. Posted by Trojans for Ever! Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:47 pm EDT

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    How funny. You people talk like the bug 1.2 is a legit conference or something. TT, OSU would be thankful to go 5-5 in the SEC. OK and Tex would most likely be at the top of the conference, but guaranteed they would not be undefeated.
  20. Trojans for Ever!
    20. Posted by Trojans for Ever! Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:47 pm EDT

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    I have to agree with Gator bait. The SEC is a brutal conference. I hate to bust your bubble Lubbockite, but the championship game will be between USC and Penn State. USC has absolutely nothing ahead to challenge them and if PSU get past a highly overrated OSU this weekend, the big game is on.
    UT will slip as they always do. Like OSU, UT is overrated.
  21. JESSED
    21. Posted by JESSED Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:43 pm EDT

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    ok ,its gonna be a tough november for tech ,but all we have to do is play one game at a time and the defense needs to concentrate on getting more 3 and outs rather than showing off like they are bad asses once they tackle someone cause really no one is impressed only if we get a punt .also they need to stick to their assignments and not let no one get behind them and everything else will fall in place .WITH THAT SAID GO LUCK TECH WE WILL ALL BEHIND YOU . WE MUST PROTECT THIS HOUSE!!!!!! DO SOME WORK SON!!! LORD BE WITH ALL OF YOU!! BCS BOUND IS OUR GOAL DONT FORGET P.S. BLOCK FOR OUR FIELDGOAL KICKER AND IT WON'T GET BLOCKED,AND HE NEEDS TO THINK ONCE AND KICK IT THAT SIMPLE
  22. Shawn
    22. Posted by Shawn Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:45 pm EDT

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    I can't believe you trojans. You need to go to urinalysis. The SEC is by far more overated than the big 12. Wait until bowl games. sec will lose to big 12 every time. And USC has no business in the top 10 after a Beaver loss. Come on now.
  23. JESSED
    23. Posted by JESSED Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:43 pm EDT

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    Trojans are too worried about the big 12 ,if they weren't why the heck are they in our blogs .so please spare us the bull go cry on your pages
  24. Gary P
    24. Posted by Gary P Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:22 pm EDT

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    Tulsa is outplaying everyone, and if they were in the SEC, Big 12, 0r Pack 10, they would still be outplaying everyone. I’m really sick of all you Tech fans crying about being mistreated.
  25. Stephen T
    25. Posted by Stephen T Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:43 pm EDT

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    All I care about is finding a coach for Kansas St "wink" RP is not getting it done,they have no improvement at all to show for it.

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