Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Since I paid special attention to the Big Ten's scheduling issues last week, a couple assessments at ESPN this week caught my eye. Monday, blogger-at-large Bruce Feldman backed up his colleague, Mark Schlabach, by naming Northwestern and Penn State's non-conference schedules the two softest in the country, with Wisconsin rounding out his list at No. 10. Three SEC teams made Feldman's list, too, but not surprisingly, the Leader's Big Ten blogger, Adam Rittenberg, senses a double standard:

When I look at the nonleague slates of the Big Ten and the SEC, I don't see much difference. But the Big Ten seems to get bashed more in the scheduling debate because its power teams (Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin) all scheduled easy for 2009, while Georgia beefed up its slate and Alabama opens with Virginia Tech.

That's very largely true: With the exception of Georgia's gambit with Oklahoma State, Arizona State and Georgia Tech, Big Ten non-conference schedules in general don't differ much from those in the SEC. The difference in a purely realpolitik sense is the perceived (key word there) strength of the entire schedules: The SEC is going to start the season with five teams in the top-15, meaning each one of those five contenders is virtually guaranteed to play at least three games against highly-ranked competition, not including games with wild card Tennessee and ACC rivals (Alabama's opener with Virginia Tech can be grouped in the latter category), and in turn, each of those opponents will have three or four games against highly-ranked competition itself. Then one of them will add another valuable win in the conference championship game.

The Big Ten, though, only has two teams in the top-20 to start the season, Ohio State and Penn State, and outside of each other, the only game either plays against another team likely to start in the top-20 is Ohio State's date with USC. Beyond the Trojans, the best non-conference opponents on any Big Ten competitor's schedule (Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Missouri) are considered fringe poll teams at best. So there's a very good chance the winner of the Big Ten, even if it's not the Buckeyes or Lions, will only have one really impressive win on its schedule, two at most. And unless one of those is Southern Cal, that MVV (Most Valuable Victim) isn't likely to have more than one really impressive win itself. And so on. Without any big non-conference wins, the perceived mediocrity of the league can only perpetuate itself.

I think it goes without saying that polls -- especially preseason polls -- are not reality. But it also goes without saying that the rankings have their own internal logic, and in Poll World, perception is reality. The early perception is that, thanks to attrition, there aren't any serious national championship contenders in the Big Ten this year. Ohio State can dramatically alter that perception by beating Southern Cal. But if the Big Ten is considered a two-horse league -- and clearly it is until further notice -- and the only horse on either one's resumé is the other one, the scheduling issue is going to linger well into the season. That's why the Buckeyes' date with USC is such a screaming big deal for the conference.

For the record, if Penn State runs the table, this probably won't be an issue unless there are two other major, undefeated teams at the end of the year (see Auburn and its fatally lame non-conference slate when the Tigers were snubbed by the title game in 2004), which is highly unlikely -- only one "Big Six" team, Ohio State in 2006, has entered the bowl season undefeated in the last three years. And, as Rittenberg points out, PSU's not likely to be such an easy target for cupcake haters in the future: The Lions have a home-and-home with Alabama in 2010-11 and have been rumored to be talking to Miami. Ohio State's schedule for the next decade already includes Miami, California, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Obviously, they're getting the point.

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  1. Big Nate
    1. Posted by Big Nate Tue Jun 16, 2009 1:35 pm EDT

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    Good that OSU is getting it from a scheduling standpoint. Now they need to get it from a playing standpoint.
  2. Aaron
    2. Posted by Aaron Tue Jun 16, 2009 2:34 pm EDT

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    Ohio State puts Texas, USC, Miami, VT, and Oklahoma on their schedule and people still complain. Don't blame OSU for the rest of the Big Ten sucking. Go take a look at Florida's non-conferance schedule and then you'll have a legit complaint. Stop being sheep, morons.
  3. Trigg
    3. Posted by Trigg Tue Jun 16, 2009 6:39 pm EDT

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    the only losses OSU has had were against National Champions (UofF & LSU) and National Powers (USC,PSU and Texas) - its not like they have lost to a MAC school or a div II school
  4. chepe007
    4. Posted by chepe007 Tue Jun 16, 2009 10:05 pm EDT

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    Ohio state was playing football when a lot of other schools were still fighting indians.
  5. JonnieRebel
    5. Posted by JonnieRebel Tue Jun 16, 2009 11:04 pm EDT

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    tOSU is a great program, they just happen to lose the "big games" against teams not named the Wolverines the last 5 or so years....
    Mark my words: tOSU USC, tOSU any SEC team they may see in a bowl game this year. Their pride has been pushed to the edge and this year they push back.
  6. CuseFanInSoCal
    6. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:36 am EDT

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    Well, it's not like the self-referential SEC resume boosting is likely to stop any time soon, but we all know quite well that at least 2, and probably 3 of the SEC teams that start in the top 15 won't finish there, at least one will drop out of the top 25 entirely, and in all likelyhood none of the unranked teams are going to surprise.
  7. Lew Ghost
    7. Posted by Lew Ghost Wed Jun 17, 2009 1:42 am EDT

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    OSU and any other team in the big ten blows... it's a weak conference, and I doubt it will ever be as good as it once was
  8. p s
    8. Posted by p s Wed Jun 17, 2009 2:48 am EDT

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    big 10 sucks and will for a few years, dont complain about florida having a esay non conference schdl when they will be playing 5 or so teams in the top 20ish by then end of the season..not including the sec champ game
  9. bobby
    9. Posted by bobby Wed Jun 17, 2009 5:28 am EDT

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    the big ten needs to quit resting on history that happened before most of us were born. osu did schedule texas wait they lost that one well they did schedule usc opps lost again does anyone see the pattern here lol and they are by far the bect team in thier conferance. the bcs needs to find a way to give more credit for schedule and subtract points for teams that line up cream puffs then demand a bcs bowl over teams that have worked for the right to play
  10. OHdad
    10. Posted by OHdad Wed Jun 17, 2009 8:29 am EDT

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    Yes the sec has been good over the last decade. Yes the big 10 has struggled, especially in bowl games. But look at the bowl matchups aside from the top team: number 7 big ten vs number 4 sec..... and on and on. The fact is OSU beat an unbeatable team in Miami for their last national championship. They earned it, and should not have been playing for the other two they lost; they were not one of the top two in the country for those, I will admit it was based more on reputation but you can't blame OSU for ending up in the games, it wasn't their choice, they were choosen.
    The big ten will come back, but keep in mind the recruiting issues vs the SEC and the Pac ten for example; weather, half naked girls all year vs snow suits. Lets start playing some bowl games in football weather instead of 80 degree sunshine. Speed kills, but watch the NFL to see how true players perform nomatter what the circumstances. Quite frankly the southern schools and west coast don't face this crap. And howmany OSU players are in the NFL? count the numbers folks, then tell me the talent isn't there.
  11. Valhalla360
    11. Posted by Valhalla360 Wed Jun 17, 2009 8:49 am EDT

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    1) We need a playoff. 2) Games agains division 2 teams should be outlawed or at least counted as a loss if they win by less than 10 touchdowns. The problem is the system is self fullfilling. The SEC and Big 12 are overranked at the begining of the season. If they win, they get credit for beating a ranked team and rocket up in the polls. If they lose, it's against a ranked team so they only drop a little. The Big 10 and PAC 10 are under ranked so when they win, it's not against a ranked team so they don't go up as much and when they lose it's against an unranked team so they go down a lot. The result is the preseaon ranking determine which league (but not neccessarily which team) will be at the top at the end of the season. Too much perception not enough winning it on the field.
  12. Shawna O
    12. Posted by Shawna O Wed Jun 17, 2009 3:03 pm EDT

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    Screw the BCS and all the other polls we need playoffs. Best of the best and by-pass the rest, then and only then can a team say we came and we con'quered and now we stand before you as CHAMPIONS!!!!!!! But the Bowl games would lose money, bull-crap call the playoff games bowl games and all are satisfied!
  13. Andy
    13. Posted by Andy Wed Jun 17, 2009 7:12 pm EDT

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    "cusefaninsocal" you wanna get on here and question the SEC just look at the FACTS not opinions: since the BCS has started the SEC is 5-0 in championship games compared to the Big 10's 1-2. Overall BCS games the SEC is 12-5 compared to the Big 10's 8-11. All the Big 12 fans you are 2-4 in BCS championship games and 7-9 in BCS games. The ACC is 1-2 in BCS championships and 2-9 in BCS games. The Big East is 1-2 in BCS championships and 6-5 in BCS games. And the Pac 10 prolly the closest in comparison to the SEC is 1-1 in BCS championship games and 9-4 in BCS games. That is the facts and they cant be disputed so before people start calling the SEC top heavy and overrated remember this conference does it every year they arent a fly by night conference. I have a lot of respect for Ohio State and USC because they do play people out of conference but when a team has to play Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee and LSU that is better than any schedule that a Big 10 or any conference for that matter will run out there. And you say that one team will fall out of the top 25, your right that team was LSU last year and they mauled Georgia Tech a ranked team in a bowl game. You run Tennessee down for winning 5 games last year, well that same team was in the SEC championship game against LSU the year prior and lost 21-14 and we all know what LSU did to Ohio State that same year. You dont have to listen to the facts clown you can play stupid and run the SEC down but I know for a FACT that the high school kids have spoken because they all run to the SEC. Even those run down schools like Tennessee (as you say) had a top 10 recruiting class. Good luck to all because it will be an exciting football season BUT there will be an SEC team in the championship game this year and it will be Florida beating Texas
  14. Jimmy B
    14. Posted by Jimmy B Wed Jun 17, 2009 8:52 pm EDT

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    I don't think we need to have a plaoff like the ''sissy'' sport of basketball. There is no physical beating or pounding like colege football that these players will ever receive in ones lifetime. So too say they need to play more games just to enter the championship is stupid. Futhermore I don't think ( Big Ten,SEC,Big Twelve,Pac Ten,ACC,and the MAC) conferences are stronger or weaker then one or the other. The games that are played throughout the season are all hard fought battles in the trenches. So it goes to say ( May the best coached,and best played team be victorious in the end.)
  15. CuseFanInSoCal
    15. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Wed Jun 17, 2009 9:00 pm EDT

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    Andy B, Since at least 2 of those BCS title game victories were over an Oklahoma team that shouldn't have been there instead of a USC team that would in all likelyhood have beat them, I just can't give the BCS titles thing much credence.
  16. Andy
    16. Posted by Andy Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:33 pm EDT

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    "CuseFanInSoCal" well I would take that as a valid point if not for the fact that USC really cant call the Big 12 weak when Texas squared them away in the BCS championship game. The thing with that argument is that if you lose to Oregon State or Stanford do you really think that you deserve a chance to play for it all. I think that the Pac 10 is a good conference and if USC would have lost to say Oregon or Cal then I would think different but they lost to 2 very suspect teams. And if you cant run the table in the Pac 10 how do you think that USC could go through the SEC where week in and week out you are facing speed on offense and very tough defense. I will say that I think that USC is a great team but they do play west coast football and that is soft in my opinion. I mean 6 or 7 years ago USC beat Auburn pretty good and they have beaten up on Arkansas a couple of times BUT lets not start saying that because they beat those 2 teams that they would do that to Florida, Georgia or LSU. And if you think that Florida loses to USC last year that is crazy or LSU the year before. I would love a playoff though because then the middle tier SEC teams like Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, South Carolina could start making runs instead of just winning bowl games.
  17. paige r
    17. Posted by paige r Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:44 pm EDT

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    I agree with Andy B. The facts speak for themselves. The SEC is dominant when it coms to BCS games. The SEC gets the best players, and the best coaches as a whole. Its very difficult to compete with that. Like Ron Zook said, The team with the best players usually wins.
  18. J. Tressel
    18. Posted by J. Tressel Wed Jun 17, 2009 11:54 pm EDT

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    Robert d ouche - I am glad to see that you mention how the Buckeyes lost to TX but fail to mention that they beat them the very next year its nice to be one sided isn't. The year they lost to TX they were the only team in the NCAA to put the brakes on Vince Young and his awsome athletic ability and they had a chance to win that game in the late stages of the fourth quarter. We haven't played USC the second time yet. Oh and by the way they beat the unbeatable Hurricanes in 03 ncg which no one thought was going to happen. You talk about looking at schedules more well hasn't it occurred to you that the Buckeyes don't lose to teams that they are supposed to walk over (i.e. UF losing to Ole Miss, USC losing to Ore St.) The Buckeyes lost to USC who was #1, PSU who was #3, and TX who was #3. So while you can say the Buckeyes lose some of the BIG games, the Buckeyes can say at least we don't lose the easy games.
  19. jack mehoggoff
    19. Posted by jack mehoggoff Thu Jun 18, 2009 7:38 am EDT

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    so what you are saying is that a 2 loss sec team will get into the championship game before an undefeated big 10 team- the sec has always been over-hyped
  20. MarkSouthFL
    20. Posted by MarkSouthFL Thu Jun 18, 2009 10:27 am EDT

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    Note to Paige about your comment: "Like Ron Zook said, The team with the best players usually wins. "
    ...unless, of courses, Zook is coaching said players.
  21. weatheredandtorn
    21. Posted by weatheredandtorn Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:25 am EDT

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    To J. Tressel "Buckeyes don't lose to teams that they are supposed to walk over" OSU was a heavy favorite going into the title game against UF, does 41-14 ring a bell?
  22. CuseFanInSoCal
    22. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:50 am EDT

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    SEC fans vastly overrate the strength of the SEC, and underrate everyone else. Probably because they play so few quality non-conference opponents, especially outside of the South, that they don't have a real idea of how good or bad they are.
  23. Me
    23. Posted by Me Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:05 pm EDT

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    O! h!
  24. michiganblows
    24. Posted by michiganblows Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:09 pm EDT

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    ^ its the national title game, you cant ever say thats a game your supposed to walk over....Either way you can argue that Ohio State has as tough a schedule as any in the past 5 years and will continue to do so for the next 10. They face teams from all confrences and play most of them on the road...Beat Miami in florida, beat texas @ Texas, lost to LSU 30 min away from there campus, lost to USC in southern cal and all of these teams are in there prime when there playing tOSU...these teams on there schedule for the next decade are no longer the best in there conference and tOSU will have a great time beating up on confrence #2 or #3 instead of the conference champs. Enjoy hating on them now because its all starting to turn around, starting sept 12th
  25. Jay B
    25. Posted by Jay B Thu Jun 18, 2009 12:14 pm EDT

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    im a diehard buckeye fan and it breaks my heart that ohio state did not catch the easy interception just a couple plays before texas scorde the game winning touchdown,but the buckeys did show alot of heart in that game,and I think that will carry over to this season when we beat U.S.C.,P.S.U.and Texas in the national title game, while a one loss Florida team crushes a one loss U.S.C team in the other big B.C.S. game. This will give us another sad year where no one will know who the best team really is. But hey the buckeyes will be NATIONAL CHAMPS.

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