Tue Dec 16, 2008 12:27 pm EST
Mel Kiper Jr. on Percy Harvin's draft potential:
"He’s not that big, and he’s taken a lot of hits. But his explosiveness after the run is explosive."
Thank you, Mel, thanks. Actually, that bit of redundancy aside, Kiper likes Harvin in his rundown of various Gators' draft hopes for the Orlando Sentinel, assuming "He's like a Reggie Bush" is still a compliment. He likes Tim Tebow, too, but not in the way Tebow is hoping he would:
On why he thinks Tebow should play a different position: "When you watch him play, he's strong as a runner and he's great with the ball. He can be that third quarterback in a wildcat formation. He could be an H back or a tight end, like a Frank Wycheck does in NFL. He gives you that third quarterback, that versatile all-around guy."
[...]
On embracing a different position: "If you fight it and say I’m just a quarterback, that’s a different ballgame. That’s why guys don’t go as high. I remember Eric Courch was fighting it for awhile. There was no way Crouch was an NFL quarterback. He was going to have to be a safety. Seemed to me like he was talking too much about being a quarterback."
[...]
On Tebow's final projection: "I’d say third or fourth round worst-case scenario, second round as a best case. Probably a third-rounder. That’s assuming his workouts are good."
I'm in no position to disagree with Kiper, who's probably right about as often as you can reasonably expect someone in his position to be right. But we are definitely seeing here the mystifying vaguery that Malcolm Gladwell describes in the latest New Yorker about judging potential pro quarterbacks: The subtle differences in a star and an also-ran almost qualify as voodoo. In the same breath Kiper calls Tebow "one of the greatest college players of all time, top 3-5 of all time," he says flatly, "He's not going to be a first-round pick."
I completely believe him, and also know that I will never be able to be convinced that such a projection makes any sense. Plenty of non-pocket passers have been high draft picks -- off the top of my head, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair and Vince Young all went in the top four picks in the last 15 years -- and all four of those guys had varying degrees of success because of their ability to move around as well as throw on the run (I'll defend Vick as a player until I'm blue in the face). So I'm not sure why the comparison here is to Crouch, who obviously didn't have the size or the arm to be a college quarterback in any system other than Nebraska's option scheme, and had the dismal passing numbers to prove it. Tebow's not Eric Crouch, and he's not Danny Wuerffel, who was smart and accurate but also obviously lacked the size and physical gifts that Tebow seems to possess in abundance. He's not even Chris Weinke, who had the size and dynamic numbers at Florida State but was old and couldn't outrun Gilbert Brown. Hell, a gangly loper like Alex Smith was a No. 1 pick out of the same system Tebow runs, and even primarily college fans thought that was crazy (apparently, only college fans though that was crazy).
Forget about yards, touchdowns, pointless awards, running up the score and the myth that Tebow is just a running quarterback in a college offense: Tebow has NFL size and a first-rate temperament; is extremely mobile (duh); has completed two-thirds of his passes, finished in the top three nationally in touchdown percentage and yards per attempt and put up historically high pass efficiency ratings two years in a row; had the second-lowest interception rate and best TD:INT ratio in the nation this year; and has been consistently deadly on deep throws (as if they still threw deep in the NFL) -- in two years, Florida has completed 65 passes of at least 25 yards, or 2.5 per game. He's led the highest-scoring offense in the SEC two years in a row and is on the verge of winning a second mythical championship in three years. Obviously, his career aspiration is Frank Wycheck.
Again, I completely believe the gurus when they say Tebow won't be a first-round pick. This is their job. It is the most counterintuitive job anywhere. My problem is this: The questions that surround Tebow re: his ability to read defenses and adjust to the pro game apply to every college quarterback making the transition. If Tebow hasn't answered them enough to even project as a quarterback at the next level, then my god, who has?
Oh yeah. Curtis Painter and Hunter Cantwell. I can't wait for the 2014 Pro Bowl starring Cullen Harper! Argh.
Update: Coincidentally, Shutdown Corner weighs in on Tebow's NFL prospects, as well as those of Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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134 Comments
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His mechanics are, to be kind, fubar. Kid has heart for days, and he'll be a leader wherever he goes. I don't buy him as a Tight End, but I see this guy doing the Kordell Stewart thing for about 5 years before Jesus calls him home.
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Maybe Tebow is seen as a "system QB" who may not be so effective in a different system. (I think that it is a given that he won't run power so much in the NFL, and thus won't be able to play-fake to himself.)
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The scouts have been fooled by many gimmick quarterbacks in the past (Klingler, Alex and Akili Smith, Andre Ware, etc) and seem to finally be starting to learn. Tebow, in my opinion, will be college football's answer to Christian Laettner in that he's an ALL TIME great at the college level, and will be in the pros for a long time, but won't have anything more than an average career at that level.
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You should stop that. Vick was not an above-average NFL starting quarterback. He just wasn't.
And as a college player, he got far more hype than a much better QB playing in the same conference at the same time (McNabb).
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Do I think he should get a shot at QB in the NFL? Why not. He's essentially a stronger, more hyped Tarvaris Jackson and if T-Jack can get an NFL gig over a guy who put up good numbers in a pro style college system in John David Booty, why can't Tebow?
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(from a guy who has lived in atlanta his whole life and spent the vick years trying to convince his buddies and son that vick would never, ever get it done)
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Obviously people may think I'm biased because I'm a Gator fan, but that's not it. I can be impartial. I think Percy Harvin has a ton of potential, but I don't think his NFL career will be that spectacular because of injuries. I can go on from there. I've seen Tebow play. In fact, I've seen 99% of his plays in college. He is the real freakin deal. People focus so much on physical attributes. He's got them. People don't focus enough on non-physical attributes. And he's got that too. If I were an NFL team in need of a QB, I'd take him in the first round in a heartbeat. (maybe not in the top 10, but in the first round for sure).
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Way to shoot your own credibility in the thigh, man.
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Maybe it would fail, but considering how teams like the Bears, Lions, Bills, Chiefs and Browns have spent DECADES looking for the "next Jim McMahon / Erik Kramer / Jim Kelly / Bernie Kosar"... what have you got to lose? Seeing how the Patriots appear to have the monopoly on 6th round QBs with Hall of Fame potential, maybe its time even 1 pitiful NFL team took a look at the spread or zone read or flexbone.
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I recently watched the MNF game b/w the Bucs and Panthers and they were praising Jeff Garcia for his play making abilities outside the pocket and how he never slides, yet people belittle Tebow on the same aspects of his game when they relay it to the pros. I'm not saying Tebow will become a Unitas, Montana or even a Steve Young (with the whole lefty thing), but give the man a break. Shoot...people in Tennessee are banking on Vince Young to be their savior.
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Did you ever actually see Steve McNair play in college? Because he wasn't a running QB, he was an excellent passer who just happened to run periodically. And he played in the moral equivalent of the run-and-shoot. Donovan McNabb fits that description as well, although Syracuse did run a fair proportion of option during his time there.
Vick was a runner who happened to be able to throw the ball far and hard, so he was put at QB. Great college QB, not so much in the pro game. Vince Young is the closest comparison on that list for Tebow, and even before his mental health issues he was looking like a washout in the pros.
I see a couple of issues that Tebow will face in the pros. His mechanics look fairly goofy to me when he throws the ball, so a pro team will have to re-construct his throwing motion. That immediately puts him in the "Project" bin with other "athletes", usually from D-1AA programs. I also think the design of Urban Meyer's offense is going to hurt him. He hasn't seen anything that even remotely resembles an NFL-caliber pass defense, he has always had very simple reads to perform. That also pushes him into the "Project" bin.
Having said that, the physical measurables are there, and the work ethic in unquestioned. He can be useful as a goal-line/short yardage QB immediately as he will credible as a runner and thrower in those formations, so he can contribute during his (likely) 2 years of re-learning how to be a QB. I can see him being drafted in the 3rd round, but the team drafting him should be certain to announce him as a running back to get a head start on circumventing the 3rd-QB rule in the NFL.
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