Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Mel Kiper Jr. on Percy Harvin's draft potential:

"He’s not that big, and he’s taken a lot of hits. But his explosiveness after the run is explosive."

Thank you, Mel, thanks. Actually, that bit of redundancy aside, Kiper likes Harvin in his rundown of various Gators' draft hopes for the Orlando Sentinel, assuming "He's like a Reggie Bush" is still a compliment. He likes Tim Tebow, too, but not in the way Tebow is hoping he would:

On why he thinks Tebow should play a different position: "When you watch him play, he's strong as a runner and he's great with the ball. He can be that third quarterback in a wildcat formation. He could be an H back or a tight end, like a Frank Wycheck does in NFL. He gives you that third quarterback, that versatile all-around guy."
[...]
On embracing a different position: "If you fight it and say I’m just a quarterback, that’s a different ballgame. That’s why guys don’t go as high. I remember Eric Courch was fighting it for awhile. There was no way Crouch was an NFL quarterback. He was going to have to be a safety. Seemed to me like he was talking too much about being a quarterback."
[...]
On Tebow's final projection: "I’d say third or fourth round worst-case scenario, second round as a best case. Probably a third-rounder. That’s assuming his workouts are good."

I'm in no position to disagree with Kiper, who's probably right about as often as you can reasonably expect someone in his position to be right. But we are definitely seeing here the mystifying vaguery that Malcolm Gladwell describes in the latest New Yorker about judging potential pro quarterbacks: The subtle differences in a star and an also-ran almost qualify as voodoo. In the same breath Kiper calls Tebow "one of the greatest college players of all time, top 3-5 of all time," he says flatly, "He's not going to be a first-round pick."

I completely believe him, and also know that I will never be able to be convinced that such a projection makes any sense. Plenty of non-pocket passers have been high draft picks -- off the top of my head, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair and Vince Young all went in the top four picks in the last 15 years -- and all four of those guys had varying degrees of success because of their ability to move around as well as throw on the run (I'll defend Vick as a player until I'm blue in the face). So I'm not sure why the comparison here is to Crouch, who obviously didn't have the size or the arm to be a college quarterback in any system other than Nebraska's option scheme, and had the dismal passing numbers to prove it. Tebow's not Eric Crouch, and he's not Danny Wuerffel, who was smart and accurate but also obviously lacked the size and physical gifts that Tebow seems to possess in abundance. He's not even Chris Weinke, who had the size and dynamic numbers at Florida State but was old and couldn't outrun Gilbert Brown. Hell, a gangly loper like Alex Smith was a No. 1 pick out of the same system Tebow runs, and even primarily college fans thought that was crazy (apparently, only college fans though that was crazy).

Forget about yards, touchdowns, pointless awards, running up the score and the myth that Tebow is just a running quarterback in a college offense: Tebow has NFL size and a first-rate temperament; is extremely mobile (duh); has completed two-thirds of his passes, finished in the top three nationally in touchdown percentage and yards per attempt and put up historically high pass efficiency ratings two years in a row; had the second-lowest interception rate and best TD:INT ratio in the nation this year; and has been consistently deadly on deep throws (as if they still threw deep in the NFL) -- in two years, Florida has completed 65 passes of at least 25 yards, or 2.5 per game. He's led the highest-scoring offense in the SEC two years in a row and is on the verge of winning a second mythical championship in three years. Obviously, his career aspiration is Frank Wycheck.

Again, I completely believe the gurus when they say Tebow won't be a first-round pick. This is their job. It is the most counterintuitive job anywhere. My problem is this: The questions that surround Tebow re: his ability to read defenses and adjust to the pro game apply to every college quarterback making the transition. If Tebow hasn't answered them enough to even project as a quarterback at the next level, then my god, who has?

Oh yeah. Curtis Painter and Hunter Cantwell. I can't wait for the 2014 Pro Bowl starring Cullen Harper! Argh.

Update: Coincidentally, Shutdown Corner weighs in on Tebow's NFL prospects, as well as those of Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy.

digg delicious
more

134 Comments

Post a Comment
  1. The Thrilla in Vanilla
    1. Posted by The Thrilla in Vanilla Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:01 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    C'mon, Hinton. You know that the Pro and College games are more different now than ever. Defense's speed, hit avoidance (especially at QB), and entirely different schemes. Just like the A-11 can work in High School, and will be laughed off the field in College, so goes the College to NFL offensive schemata.
    His mechanics are, to be kind, fubar. Kid has heart for days, and he'll be a leader wherever he goes. I don't buy him as a Tight End, but I see this guy doing the Kordell Stewart thing for about 5 years before Jesus calls him home.
  2. howarjo1943
    2. Posted by howarjo1943 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I would take him on my team(saints) in a heartbeat.
  3. Georgia Buckeye
    3. Posted by Georgia Buckeye Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:55 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    It is mystifying. I totally agreed with you and Brian (MGoBlog) when you were dismissing the pro potential of Matt Ryan last year, for example.
    Maybe Tebow is seen as a "system QB" who may not be so effective in a different system. (I think that it is a given that he won't run power so much in the NFL, and thus won't be able to play-fake to himself.)
  4. Smokin Joe Fraze
    4. Posted by Smokin Joe Fraze Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:45 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    people still don't get it. Tebow is a QB and is a complete player. He's going to be playing hte QB position in the NFL. Percy and Tebow will both be drafted in the first round there is no doubt.
  5. The Legend
    5. Posted by The Legend Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:44 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I almost always love the work of this blog, but I am baffled by this post. Tebow has horrific mechanics, struggles mightily throwing the deep pass, and has a running style that would get him knocked out of the NFL ASAP. He is a fantastic college quarterback perfectly designed to run the spread attack, but teams in the NFL just don't run offenses like this, and for good reason, because it wouldn't work. Even though they have different running styles, Tebow and Alex Smith are quite compareable. The exception being that yes Tebow is doing it in a better league, but he also has far more talent around him.
    The scouts have been fooled by many gimmick quarterbacks in the past (Klingler, Alex and Akili Smith, Andre Ware, etc) and seem to finally be starting to learn. Tebow, in my opinion, will be college football's answer to Christian Laettner in that he's an ALL TIME great at the college level, and will be in the pros for a long time, but won't have anything more than an average career at that level.
  6. thedragonrogue
    6. Posted by thedragonrogue Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:04 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    These are also the same people who said Tom Brady would never make it as a NFL QB.
  7. CuseFanInSoCal
    7. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    ** I'll defend Vick as a player until I'm blue in the face **
    You should stop that. Vick was not an above-average NFL starting quarterback. He just wasn't.
    And as a college player, he got far more hype than a much better QB playing in the same conference at the same time (McNabb).
  8. The Thrilla in Vanilla
    8. Posted by The Thrilla in Vanilla Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:01 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Tom Brady is a bust. Just look at his numbers this year! Dude got benched after the first HALF. Total bust, and a waste of a 7th round draft pick.
  9. Matt H
    9. Posted by Matt H Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    My argument is not that Tebow is going to be a first rounder or a Hall of Fame quarterback. Just that he's obviously good enough to be drafted as a quarterback and to get a chance there.
  10. M
    10. Posted by M Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:09 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    His throwing mechanics are laughably bad, I know you cited Florida's deep ball stats but how many of those came on runs after the catch by his insanely fast receivers?
    Do I think he should get a shot at QB in the NFL? Why not. He's essentially a stronger, more hyped Tarvaris Jackson and if T-Jack can get an NFL gig over a guy who put up good numbers in a pro style college system in John David Booty, why can't Tebow?
  11. JEFF P
    11. Posted by JEFF P Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:32 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    #10 is dead on. 1000 times dead on. you can not take matt seriously if he is going to defend vick as a player. vick is another one with plenty of skill, just not a quarterback.
    (from a guy who has lived in atlanta his whole life and spent the vick years trying to convince his buddies and son that vick would never, ever get it done)
  12. Hunter N
    12. Posted by Hunter N Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Ignorant people annoy me so much. Thank you Mr. Hinton for such a great article. I'm sick as hell of people like Kiper who thinks he knows what he's talking about. This guy is such an idiot. Why do people compare Tebow to Crouch or Alex Smith? It's ridiculous. And MB, NOT a lot of Timmy's "deep balls" were from runs after catches. Mr. Tebow is one of THE MOST ACCURATE deep ball throwers I have ever seen. It's not that he's accurate either, it is that he throws un-interceptable balls. He will be a FANTASTIC NFL QB. He won't be Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. But I see no reason, at all, that he can't be a Steve Young. If you want to compare Tebow to someone, compare him to that man, not freakin Eric Crouch.
    Obviously people may think I'm biased because I'm a Gator fan, but that's not it. I can be impartial. I think Percy Harvin has a ton of potential, but I don't think his NFL career will be that spectacular because of injuries. I can go on from there. I've seen Tebow play. In fact, I've seen 99% of his plays in college. He is the real freakin deal. People focus so much on physical attributes. He's got them. People don't focus enough on non-physical attributes. And he's got that too. If I were an NFL team in need of a QB, I'd take him in the first round in a heartbeat. (maybe not in the top 10, but in the first round for sure).
  13. The Thrilla in Vanilla
    13. Posted by The Thrilla in Vanilla Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:01 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Wow. Hunter thinks Brady and Manning are a tier above Steve Young.
    Way to shoot your own credibility in the thigh, man.
  14. Brandon T
    14. Posted by Brandon T Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:59 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I think the difference between Alex Smith and Tebow has been Alex Smith emerged on the scene so quickly that year. Here was a QB putting up these numbers, leading his team to an undefeated season, and had the benefit of being in a weak QB class. That some how, some way he was taken #1 over all. Tebow on the other hand has been hyped since he was in high school. His freshman year at Florida he mostly ran the ball every time he touched it. Which led to everyone saying he's good, but can he throw it and be THE qb after Leak is gone. His sophomore year he proved he could handle it I'd say. His junior year he has put the team on his back. He has been under the microscope for 3 years by the "experts." Picking apart his game. He'll come back for his senior year, probably work on his mechanics a little (his release), and then if he's not a first rounder I would be shocked. How could you not want this guy on your team?
  15. vchoclate863
    15. Posted by vchoclate863 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:08 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    the reason he's not in the same sentence as vince vick mcnabb and mcnair is because tebow is white and there aint many good real good white quarter backs who can run..it would be real good if tampa bay could pick tebow and if i was TB i would cause QB's for TB never stay long enough have a true career..
  16. SnowedIn'Bama
    16. Posted by SnowedIn'Bama Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:01 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Sounds to me that the pro scouts may see Tebow as a more-effective version of Matt Jones, if anyone remembers him: former Razorback qb drafted as a wide receiver, even though he was huge and had good arm, etc. So I wouldn't be surprised if it works out that Tebow is taken as a TE or such. It's just how it is when you want to play pro ball.
  17. GorgeForeman
    17. Posted by GorgeForeman Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:38 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I'm not even a casual NFL fan but, considering how many teams are getting putrid production from the quarterback position, it might be time for teams to consider what they should do to accommodate a talent like Tebow, rather than the other way around.
  18. adder30
    18. Posted by adder30 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:13 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    I agree very much with GorgeForman. If finding the next Peyton Manning / Tom Brady / Kurt Warner circa 2000 is show hard, why hasn't even one team stockpiled a few of these dual-threat guys and let 'em do their thing. I'm too lazy to do the leg work, but I'd bet a trio of Dennis Dixon, Troy Smith and Michael Robinson could've been had for half the draft value and half the salary of a Jamarcus Russell or Matt Ryan.
    Maybe it would fail, but considering how teams like the Bears, Lions, Bills, Chiefs and Browns have spent DECADES looking for the "next Jim McMahon / Erik Kramer / Jim Kelly / Bernie Kosar"... what have you got to lose? Seeing how the Patriots appear to have the monopoly on 6th round QBs with Hall of Fame potential, maybe its time even 1 pitiful NFL team took a look at the spread or zone read or flexbone.
  19. bmw2207
    19. Posted by bmw2207 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:10 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    You can fix mechanics, and you can teach someone to make better reads, but you can't teach intensity and passion. Tebow is 6-2/6-3, 240lbs (which I assume is almost an a-typical size for a QB in the NFL...which means, he'll be able to take the hits when needed) and like Dr. Saturday said, his stats are up at the top and are just as good as anyone's...I'd assume any GM & coach would take those stats and size any day if you covered up his face and name and told them he was a QB.
    I recently watched the MNF game b/w the Bucs and Panthers and they were praising Jeff Garcia for his play making abilities outside the pocket and how he never slides, yet people belittle Tebow on the same aspects of his game when they relay it to the pros. I'm not saying Tebow will become a Unitas, Montana or even a Steve Young (with the whole lefty thing), but give the man a break. Shoot...people in Tennessee are banking on Vince Young to be their savior.
  20. ElJefe
    20. Posted by ElJefe Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:32 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Matt,
    Did you ever actually see Steve McNair play in college? Because he wasn't a running QB, he was an excellent passer who just happened to run periodically. And he played in the moral equivalent of the run-and-shoot. Donovan McNabb fits that description as well, although Syracuse did run a fair proportion of option during his time there.
    Vick was a runner who happened to be able to throw the ball far and hard, so he was put at QB. Great college QB, not so much in the pro game. Vince Young is the closest comparison on that list for Tebow, and even before his mental health issues he was looking like a washout in the pros.
    I see a couple of issues that Tebow will face in the pros. His mechanics look fairly goofy to me when he throws the ball, so a pro team will have to re-construct his throwing motion. That immediately puts him in the "Project" bin with other "athletes", usually from D-1AA programs. I also think the design of Urban Meyer's offense is going to hurt him. He hasn't seen anything that even remotely resembles an NFL-caliber pass defense, he has always had very simple reads to perform. That also pushes him into the "Project" bin.
    Having said that, the physical measurables are there, and the work ethic in unquestioned. He can be useful as a goal-line/short yardage QB immediately as he will credible as a runner and thrower in those formations, so he can contribute during his (likely) 2 years of re-learning how to be a QB. I can see him being drafted in the 3rd round, but the team drafting him should be certain to announce him as a running back to get a head start on circumventing the 3rd-QB rule in the NFL.
  21. Jimmy J
    21. Posted by Jimmy J Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:35 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Vick HAD speed..but not fast enough to avoid the prison sentence. McNabb can roll out but not enough speed to get away McNair is a prime example of why some people need to consider another position when entering the NFL....Vince Young....what can be said..wasnt mentally tough enough for the NFL...that happens when everyone has told you how great you are..you sign a big contract..when you arent mature enough to handle it at all. I dont know if anyone else caught this..but the QB examples given were all black men.I'm not a racist..but theres a BIG difference between Tebow and the four examples given. Tebow's best bet is to accept moving to tight end..theres speed in the SEC but no where near as much speed as there is in the NFL. I think Tebow can make it in the NFL...just not at QB. I agree 100% with Mel Kiper on this one
  22. David
    22. Posted by David Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:15 pm EDT

    Report Abuse

    Could those of you who say tebow's mechanics are crappy go into more detail? I'm always interested to hear the messy details -- plus, detailed statements are much, much more convincing than vague general assertions.

Dr. Saturday

Add to My Yahoo! RSS

Matt Hinton

Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

Related Photo Gallery

Y! Sports Blogs

Dr. Saturday Recent Readers