Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

More probing for reasons USC's seven-year streak at the top of the Pac-10 may be vulnerable. Read Thursday's argument for Cal. Part of the Doc’s Pac-10 Week.

Kelly has his man. The jury is very much out on Chip Kelly as a boss -- he's never been a head coach at any level -- but based on th early returns, one of the enduring legacies of Mike Bellotti's paradigm-shifting tenure at Oregon will be plucking Kelly from total obscurity at New Hampshire. As offensive coordinator, his versatile, run-based spread immediately punched up an inconsistent, occasionally stagnant unit and turned an erratic, on-and-off starter, Dennis Dixon, into the pilot of an all-purpose death machine that averaged just shy of 43 points per game; convincingly beat Michigan, USC and then-undefeated Arizona State; and rose to No. 2 in the polls through the first two months of 2007.

In retrospect, the fact that the offense collapsed so spectacularly following Dixon's season-ending ACL injury at Arizona -- the Ducks dropped that game and the last two of the regular season, including a pathetic shutout loss at UCLA -- is a testament to its resilience: Given a month to recuperate, Oregon blasted South Florida in the Sun Bowl, 56-21, with previously hopeless freshman Justin Roper, a third-stringer, tossing four touchdown passes.

It was last year's success, though, that really proved the point, after starter Nate Costa went down in the preseason and Roper was hurt in the third game; Jeremiah Masoli, another third-stringer, was knocked out in the first quarter of the loss to Boise State. Subsequently, the Ducks started 4-2 with no really impressive wins and again fell off the radar after a 34-point loss at USC. But with the completely unheralded Masoli entrenched as the starter over the second half of the season, all of a sudden it was bar the door again:

Oregon Offense Over the Second Half of 2008
UCLA (W): 31 points, 365 yards, 5.6 per play
at Arizona State (W): 54 points, 537 yards, 7.4 per play
at California (L): 16 points, 290 yards, 3.5 per play
Stanford (W): 35 points, 451 yards, 7.3 per play
Arizona (W): 55 points, 504 yards, 8.8 per play
at Oregon State (W): 65 points, 694 yards, 10.1 per play
vs. Oklahoma State (W): 42 points, 565 yards, 7.8 per play

Note that the only loss on that list, at Cal, occurred under the following conditions:

... and that's as impressive a run as any offense made last year short of the record-breaking spree at Oklahoma. Oregon's offense broke records, too, setting school marks for total points and yards and eventually outpacing the 2007 attack that seemed well on its way to the mythical championship game before Dixon's injury.

All that is to say this: Kelly's scheme has more than fulfilled the hype despite a string of injuries and attrition at key positions. At the key position, the short, squat, lightly recruited Masoli couldn't be more different than the lanky, sleek Dixon, or the ponderous, pocket-bound Roper, but all three have succeeded to various extents, and Masoli almost unanimously projects as the best quarterback in the conference as a junior.

Make that 'Men.' Like Jonathan Stewart next to Dixon, LeGarrette Blount was lost next Masoli and fellow 1,000-yard rusher Jeremiah Johnson, but completely lived up to the hype when he got the chance, flashing the same combination of power and breakway ability that made Stewart a first-round pick. Blount averaged a ludicrous 7.3 per carry, with eight runs over 30 yards on just 138 carries, and brought his fair share of thunder:

But the most intriguing player in the offense may be Jamere Holland, a blazing USC transfer who played sporadically last year but is expected to have much more expanded role. Masoli and Blount should be able to run most of the time regardless, and Jeff Maehl and tight end/tazer Ed Dickson are reliable receivers, but Holland's ability to stretch the field can make the offense truly lethal.

We won't back down. USC comes to Autzen Stadium for a potentially blockbuster showdown on Halloween (if the Ducks get by Cal at home and USC by Ohio State and Cal on the road, both teams should be undefeated and ranked in the top 5-10), but at least as important as the homefield advantage is the fact that Oregon is the only Pac-10 team in the last six years that's lined up across from the Trojans as an ostensible equal: The Ducks were actually slight favorites when SC came to Eugene in 2007, and responded with a 24-17 win over a banged-up outfit, but still one with more experience overall than the Trojans who'll come in this time. Having those few weeks as the unquestioned king of the conference, however briefly, has to account for a lot -- and if nothing else, SC has lost three straight in the state of Oregon since 2005. That's no substitute for coming at them with a veteran offensive line, as opposed to one missing three multi-year starters, but it is, you know, something.

Later today: Pac-10 picks.

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14 Comments

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  1. GorgeForeman
    1. Posted by GorgeForeman Fri Aug 21, 2009 12:04 pm EDT

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    Biggest concerns for Oregon are probably whether the new offensive line is a go, and whether they can come out of the nonconference slate in one piece. Opening game, Thursday night, at Boise State? That's a tough way to begin a season.
  2. Gregory O
    2. Posted by Gregory O Fri Aug 21, 2009 12:30 pm EDT

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    Sorry, but the furst quarter? Don't you guys have editors?
  3. ev
    3. Posted by ev Fri Aug 21, 2009 12:54 pm EDT

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    The fact USC has lost three straight in Oregon is meaningless to the Ducks since most of those losses were to the Beavers. Not too sure how equal the two programs have been over the last six years. When USC has won it's been by blow-out, when Oregon has won is been a close game. Keep in mind 4 of those six games were won by USC and 4 of those 6 were at Oregon.
  4. DucksWin
    4. Posted by DucksWin Fri Aug 21, 2009 1:32 pm EDT

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    Um, I was promised four (4) reasons why Oregon would win the Pac-10, but only got 3...so disappointed. As a huge Duck fan there are 3 things I really worry about.
    1) Will our O-Line gel in time for Boise State? - With Steve Greatwood, the 2007 (or 2006?) assistant coach of the year, running our offensive line I have great hopes.
    2) Will we be able to make a field goal?
    3) How do we do in Boise?
    If those three questions turn out good for the duckies then I think we may have a special season on our hands (BCS bowl bound!) Please feel free to disagree Beaver fans.
  5. zackduncan2004
    5. Posted by zackduncan2004 Fri Aug 21, 2009 1:38 pm EDT

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    Get over yourself Gregory O, who cares about a typo. The important point here is the content, which is dead on! Oregon wins the pac-10 easily this year as other teams flounder.
  6. zackduncan2004
    6. Posted by zackduncan2004 Fri Aug 21, 2009 1:41 pm EDT

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    We won't need field goals, and we run Boise St right out of their pathetic blue stadium. Look at our record over the past two years when we have time to prepare for a game and are halfway healthy.....scary good!
    USC fans are obnoxious, and yes, we will run you right out of Autzen stadium, mark my words.
  7. Matt H
    7. Posted by Matt H Fri Aug 21, 2009 3:18 pm EDT

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    Mortifying typo has been corrected, Gregory.
  8. brystr2
    8. Posted by brystr2 Fri Aug 21, 2009 3:45 pm EDT

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    no doubt, im sick of these people pointing out people typos, get a life!
  9. remodelcitizen
    9. Posted by remodelcitizen Fri Aug 21, 2009 4:29 pm EDT

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    brystr2, It is "I'm" not "im", and you should have pluralized the second use of "people" to "people's"...
    There is a reason for structure in spelling and grammar, that is why they teach it in schools. The idea is to keep a standard, universally readable platform. Otherwise novels would read like 500 page texts... OMG, r u gonna git mad @ me 4 makin' fun of ur post? I wud of been :) 2 c ur face when U red it. It culd of been clasic!
  10. bwdenman
    10. Posted by bwdenman Fri Aug 21, 2009 6:33 pm EDT

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    Great read! Go Duks...ooops...sorry Greg....DUCKS!
  11. krane1208
    11. Posted by krane1208 Fri Aug 21, 2009 6:52 pm EDT

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    I'll make yet another case. This is a program on the uprise. Their recruiting has gotten much better, starting in 2007. 2009 class not so good, but we got immediate help from juco receivers and linebackers and D tackles. There is a lot excitement from the players and program and we have the potential to big this year and into the future.
    USC lost most of their stars. Their running backs are not happy about playing time. They have so much competition at every position, that the players are more focused on the depth chart than the games. Maybe that is why they have a letdown every year?
  12. MichaelM
    12. Posted by MichaelM Thu Aug 27, 2009 11:36 am EDT

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    HaHa, He said LeBlount at 1:02.
    Sounds like he took a lesson from these guys:
    goduckspodcast.com
    GO DUCKS!!
  13. MichaelL
    13. Posted by MichaelL Thu Aug 27, 2009 6:38 pm EDT

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    It should be an interesting season, seeing as we fans have extremely high (possibly hesistant) hopes for a great season, which is completely opposite of last year when nobody had thoughts of a 10+ win season until we got going. I just hope we don't get disappointed. Even if Oregon happens to lose in Boise, I think its better that it is the first game of the season, give Oregon time to regroup and make their way back up the polls.
  14. JoshiDx
    14. Posted by JoshiDx Wed Sep 23, 2009 9:05 am EDT

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    I know I am a little late here, but my argument against them being the Pac-10 champ is the uniforms. Once my favorite team for flamboyant but cool uniforms, their choices this year have been abysmal. No one wants to see champs in that ugly getup.

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