Wed Oct 07, 2009 10:46 am EDT
Obsessing over the statistical anomalies and minutiae of close and closer-than-they-looked games that could have gone the other way.

Northwestern 27, Purdue 21. Early on it looked like this game was going in the opposite direction -- Northwestern fumbled on the first play from scrimmage and Purdue scored touchdowns on each of its first three possessions for a 21-3 lead. Personifying the apparent hopelessness, ennui and absurdity that seem to permeate the works of quarterback Mike Kafka, the Wildcats did everything they could to shoot themselves in the foot in the first half, not only setting up the Boilermakers' first touchdown with the early fumble, but also settling for three field goal and turning the ball over on downs on four of five trips inside the Purdue five-yard line. Northwestern had two drives of 70-plus yards and began three straight possessions inside the Boilermaker 20 following Purdue turnovers in the second quarter, and only came out of the half with 16 points.
The flipside of that, obviously, is that Purdue kept turning the ball over ... and over and over: The Boilermakers lost five fumbles, three on offense and two on returns, and all but one led directly to Northwestern points. For all the Wildcats' missed opportunities to shut the door on the butterfingery Boilers, Purdue saw them and raised with three straight marches into Northwestern territory in the second half that ended fumble, fumble, turnover on downs, the last one ending the game on an incomplete pass to tie from the Wildcat five. After the initial three touchdown drives, Purdue didn't score again on the way to 1-4. (But they still believe in themselves!)
Oregon State 28, Arizona State 17. The Sun Devils basically sealed their fate the first time they touched the ball, going three-and-out and then dropping the snap on the punt to set up the Beavers' first touchdown from 18 yards out. It was downhill from there: OSU turned another relatively short field (41 yards) into another touchdown, held ASU to a field goal at the end of a long drive and took it 77 yards for a third TD just a few seconds into the second quarter. No use in pretending a 21-3 lead on the road and cruise control the rest of the way was "stealing a win" or anything.
But ASU missed a couple opportunities to get back in the game before the half, notably by fumbling away a promising drive inside the OSU 25 after a 71-yard drive, then turning the ball over on downs as the Devils approached the Beaver red zone before the half. A good chunk of ASU's yards came on an epic, 22-play, 95-yard touchdown mission that covered almost all of the second half of the fourth quarter, with the score already well out of reach at 28-10.
Baylor 31, Kent State 15. The Bears got a solid, 20-of-27 effort from third-string quarterback Nick Florence (who also ran for two touchdowns) in place of injured starter Robert Griffin and top backup/former starter Blake Szymanski, but benefitted mainly from the Golden Flashes' (also playing without their best offensive weapon, diminutive running back Eugene Jarvis) inability to finish what it started: The number "295" in the "wasted yards" category is one of the highest ever to appear there, courtesy of two missed field goals; two turnovers; one turnover turnover on downs; and two punts from inside Bear territory.
Obviously, Kent moved the ball, but the only way it actually put it in the end zone was on big plays: The Flashes' two touchdowns came on a 35-yard pass on their first possession and on a 61-yard run in the third quarter. Accordingly, their red zone offense currently ranks dead last nationally: Only four touchdowns in 12 possessions, and only six total scores.
Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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