Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Obsessing over the statistical anomalies and minutiae of close and closer-than-they-looked games that could have gone the other way. Be careful before you judge these games by the final score alone ...

North Carolina 29, Notre Dame 24. I got e-mails from Irish fans that bordered on threats if I didn’t include the Irish’s loss in Chapel Hill this week, but that wasn’t really necessary: outgain your opponent by 150 yards on the road and still lose by turning the ball over five times, and you’re up for the “Life on the Margins” hall of fame.

The Blue-Gray Sky is right that, under any circumstances, a -5 turnover margin is terrible performance, and you can"t "take away" the Irish miscues. Actually, only two of the giveaways -- the interception returned for touchdown by Quan Sturdivant on Jimmy Clausen’s first pass of the second half, obviously, and the fumble by David Grimes at the end of the oft-replayed fourth down catch to close the game, which could have put ND in a position to try for the winning touchdown on the last play – made an obvious, direct impact toward defeat.

Old-fashioned missed opportunities were just as a much a killer for Notre Dame: the Irish punted on UNC’s side of the 50 in the first quarter and scored zero points on three trips into Tar Heel territory in the fourth quarter, failing on fourth down at the end of a 52-yard drive, throwing an interception after 33 yards, and finally fumbling away one last shot at the end zone after moving 74 yards.

Carolina, on the other hand, had the ball six times inside Irish territory and came away with points on five of them. The only exception was at the end of the second quarter, when Notre Dame fumbled away a kickoff at its own 25, and Connor Barth missed the subsequent field goal as the half expired.

Minnesota 27, Illinois 20. Speaking of missed opportunities: the Illini were lousy with them, most notably on the 79-yard sprint to the Gopher goal line in the third quarter, where Illinois failed to punch the ball in from the five and Juice Williams’ 4th-and-1 effort, initially ruled a touchdown, was (correctly) overturned:

That clip is titled "Illinois-Minnesota Blown Call," but don’t by it: on TV, on multiple slo-mo replays, Juice was down. Get over it.

At least as damaging was the missed field goal at the end of the Illini’s 12-play, 70-yard opening drive, punts from inside Gopher territory in the first and fourth quarters, and, most crucially, the barrage of ill-timed second turnovers: Minnesota got gift touchdowns off a Williams fumble on the first play of the second half (and a subsequent eight-yard “drive”) and another Juice gaffe in the fourth quarter, which Willie VanDeSteeg scooped at the five-yard line for an easy score, then picked Williams off to end a potential tying drive that moved inside the Minny 30 with under two minutes to play.

If I was Illinois, I’d have mixed feelings about losing to the alleged Big Ten doormat: one, the Gophers obviously aren’t the pushovers they were last year, and two, the loss is largely on a few correctable mistakes; for the same reason, I’d hold off anointing Minnesota the conference up-and-comer, just a player or two away from storming the gates – you don’t recover two fumbles inside your opponents’ 10-yard line every week. The bad news for the Illini: three killer second half turnovers is the old Juice, and the new, Death Star Juice on display at Michigan suddenly looks more like a result of playing the worst Michigan outfit of the last half century than anything else.

Louisville 35, Memphis 28. Here’s an innovative approach to scoring from the Cardinals: forget the offense.

How do you get to 35 points with only two offensive touchdowns, one of which came on a short field (38 yards) following a big punt return? Well, big returns, for one – UL took a kickoff back 95 yards in the second quarter – and you get creative: Louisville’s final two touchdowns came off a blocked Memphis field goal in the second quarter, returned 60 yards by Brandon Heath, and a 21-yard fumble return in the fourth by Johnny Patrick to break a 28-28 tie, a sweet turnabout after the late interception return for touchdown by UConn that cost Louisville a Friday night game against the Huskies two weeks ago.

As for Memphis … oh, it's ugly. I watched part of the middle of this game, and the Tigers looked outstanding offensively, especially nicely-named quarterback Arkelon Hall, but they’re going nowhere with so much unfinished business: a fumble at the end of a 66-yard drive in the first quarter; a missed field goal after moving 56 yards just before the half (the block that was returned for a UL touchdown); a failed fourth down attempt to tie after moving 74 yards inside the Cardinals’ 10 in the fourth quarter. If you want to drop a safe on a good night, leaving 259 yards on the field with nothing to show for it is a pretty good way of going about it.

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  1. HERETIC
    1. Posted by HERETIC Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:30 pm EDT

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    Two things:
    (1) the colors for that team at south bend should be red and black. notre dame-our lady, refers to mary magdalene.
    (2) how can you expect to win when you offer up only 1000 rosaries?
  2. Year2
    2. Posted by Year2 Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:28 pm EDT

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    If there's one thing that defines Zook's career as a head coach, it's losses built on the backs of "correctable" mistakes.
  3. Derek
    3. Posted by Derek Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:15 pm EDT

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    It's not a huge thing but I think it was Michael Floyd who fumbled at the end of the ND game instead of Grimes.
  4. Southpaw
    4. Posted by Southpaw Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:34 pm EDT

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    I thought Connor Barth graduated..
  5. elitist jerk
    5. Posted by elitist jerk Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:04 pm EDT

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    "the colors for that team at south bend should be red and black. notre dame-our lady, refers to mary magdalene"
    Uh, wut?
  6. MikeLew
    6. Posted by MikeLew Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:43 pm EDT

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    "the colors for that team at south bend should be red and black. notre dame-our lady, refers to mary magdalene."
    Actually, no- it stands for Mary, Mother of Jesus.
    But you know, close, or not.
  7. Barry Jenkins
    7. Posted by Barry Jenkins Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:48 pm EDT

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    Hey Matt,
    I'm still waiting on your thoughts on the Florida/LSU game!
  8. thecompetentvotedemocrat
    8. Posted by thecompetentvotedemocrat Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:03 pm EDT

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    Anyone watching saw that ND was head and shoulders above NC, but- suffer a brain cramp or two, make freshman/soph mistakes (Floyd trying to lateral, Clausen's INT for a TD), and that's enough. Now, if the ND defense was as far along as the ND offense, that's still a pretty comfortable win- but that isn't the case. The young players who're starring on offense for the Irish are still on the bench and in the weightroom, on the defensive side. But next year, look out.
  9. Mike L.
    9. Posted by Mike L. Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:17 pm EDT

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    That was TWO turnovers by Juice Williams. Illinois' first fumble was by RB Daniel Dufrene. Also, the pick was because Juice was hit in the arm, and not a result of the inaccuracy/bad decisions that marked his play as a younger man. If Juice has a real problem, it is that he sometimes hold the ball too long looking to make a play. But the bigger problem is that Illinois' play on both lines has been terrible. The O-Line was horrible against 'sota (5 sacks, almost no running game) and the D-line wasn't any better.
    And please note that the special teams play (not just the missed kick by Eller) was cover-your-eyes awful.
  10. Tony F
    10. Posted by Tony F Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:02 pm EDT

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    If you look at the replay of the last play its obvious that floyd had the ball and on the way down he MOVED the ball from his body to his hands and if you look closely he retained the ball until his shoulders hit the ground and then the ball was lateralled. Correct me if i'm wrong but the ground cannot cause a fumble. There were many blown calls by the officials in many of the college games over the weekend. i'm not taking the win away from North Carolina they are a good football team. i've been a notre dame fan all my life and since lou holtz, charlie weiss is the best coach they've had. regardless of the loss it should not have come down to the last play. Notre Dame has the talent and the coach. Now all they have to do is put the pieces together and CLICK.
  11. SpartanDan
    11. Posted by SpartanDan Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:11 pm EDT

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    "Now, if the ND defense was as far along as the ND offense, that's still a pretty comfortable win- "
    An offense that has turned the ball over 8 times in three games against winning teams (and one of those games being a zero-turnover performance against Stanford, who is probably not long for the "winning team" designation)? If the defense was only that far along, ND would probably be 2-4 instead of 4-2.
    Surprised not to see MSU-Northwestern here, though: three NW turnovers, a botched onside attempt, and good kick returns all day for MSU led to a 17-point win despite getting outgained by well over 100 yards.
  12. oldscout
    12. Posted by oldscout Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:20 pm EDT

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    Hey Folks, News Flash.....Notre Dame is not very good....they struggled to beat San Diego State (at home, even), beat weak teams in Michigan, Purdue, and Stanford.....the only two decent teams they've played, they came away with losses. I will tell you right now, looking ahead to '09, Notre Dame, despite it's alleged great recruiting classes, will still be at best mediocre, just as they are, this year. Good enough, maybe for a minor bowl game, but that's about it.
  13. jimmy69mac
    13. Posted by jimmy69mac Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:00 pm EDT

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    philadelphia eagles suck talk about roy williams, talk about tony gonzalez, it's just talk....fire andy reid, trade donabin mcnabb, and GO IRISH,,,, beat usc
  14. admvinyl
    14. Posted by admvinyl Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:46 pm EDT

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    if notre dame wants to claim this one as a %26quot%3bwe should have won, we were clearly better%26quot%3b, then they should also acknowledge the %26quot%3bshould have lost but for turnovers because we were outplayed%26quot%3b michigan game. they didn%26%2339%3bt even force most of michigan%26%2339%3bs turnovers in that one, michigan just plain dropped the ball repeatedly. outside of one inexplicable blown coverage on a one-man pattern and a blown tackle that turned a 10 yard gain into 60, notre dame did jack nothing on offense while having the %26quot%3bhonor%26quot%3b of being the only team this year to allow michigan to fairly consistenly move the ball.%0d%0a%0d%0athe turnover gods giveth, and the turnover gods taketh away.
  15. Kirk Kittell
    15. Posted by Kirk Kittell Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:46 pm EDT

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    The stats you've included for the Illinois vs. Minnesota game are wrong (see: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/boxscore?gid=200810110026). Illinois had 550 yards, not 322 yards. Of course, that just makes it more frustrating when you consider they surpassed Minnesota's total yardage but that much more...

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