Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Fun fact: New Mexico broke the seal on University Stadium with a 77-6 rout of the National University of Mexico in 1960. Despite its cosmopolitan debut, though, the stadium has hosted exactly two college football games in the intervening 48 years -- the 1979 and 1980 Zia Bowls, featuring teams that just missed the nascent I-AA playoffs -- that didn't feature the Lobos, including the first two editions of the New Mexico Bowl. So while Colorado State and Fresno State may not mean much to you, today marks a bold step for this brave but proud little edifice.

It's good to embark on these new phases slowly. It's a testament to preseason expectations and a nationally televised win over Rutgers to open the season that credible analysts can still consider Fresno State "a good team" despite the Bulldogs' 88th-ranked total defense and conference losses to Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, Nevada and Boise State, the last by 51 points at the hands of a team Fresno was largely expected to defeat for the WAC title in August. Seven different teams have piled up at least 200 yards rushing on the nation's 104th-ranked run defense (Nevada alone gashed FSU for 472 in November), after five teams ran for 200 on the Bulldog defense in 2007 -- that's a roughly 50:50 chance over two years of a monster rushing day against Fresno, and the Bulldogs are 6-6 in those games (1-6 against other eventual bowl teams), compared to 10-3 when they stiffen up a little .

However, the Bulldogs are also a winning team with a competent passing attack, an impossible profile where Colorado State is concerned: Five of the Rams' six losses this year were to eventual bowl teams with offenses averaging 30 points per game, and that doesn't include the 21-point loss to Colorado in the season opener. CSU has beaten one winning team all season (28-25 over Houston in September), and has totally lacked the power running style to get FSU into the kind of game the Bulldogs typically struggle with. I'd take Fresno here at –3: The Bulldogs may not be a good team, but 8-5 with a bowl win passes for a good season most places and ought to keep Pat Hill busy turning down overtures from terrible BCS schools faster than you can say "Zero WAC championships in 12 years."

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  1. adam
    1. Posted by adam Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:46 pm EDT

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    Go UNAM - Viva las Pumas!

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Dr. Saturday is a college football blog edited by Matt Hinton. Email him tips and feedback.

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