Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

There are two games Saturday pitting two BCS top-25 teams head-to-head, Iowa at Ohio State and Utah at TCU, and the oddsmakers are really feeling the excitement: Ohio State opens up as anywhere from a 13-point to 17.5-point favorite over the Ricky Stanzi-less Hawkeyes in Columbus, and the Horned Frogs are marking their second appearance in less than a month in College GameDay's featured game as 19.5-point favorites over the Utes. You know it's a tough sell as a "marquee game" when one of the teams is trying to use the spread as motivation.

It's just that kind of weekend: In the other obviously big games, undefeated Cincinnati is favored to beat West Virginia by two scores Friday night; Georgia Tech is favored to beat Duke by double digits in a game that could decide the ACC's Coastal Division; suddenly struggling USC is a double-digit favorite over suddenly streaking Stanford; and SEC heavies Florida and Alabama are both expected to easily dispatch with South Carolina and Mississippi State on the road en route to the Gators' and Tide's winner-take-all showdown next month in the SEC Championship.

And frankly, it's beginning to feel like that kind of season. As Pete Thamel pointed out in Sunday's New York Times, every game is most definitely not a playoff down the stretch, as BCS proponents are so fond of contending. There is one "playoff' game -- Alabama-Florida in Atlanta, the winner of which is certainly bound for the BCS title game in the Rose Bowl, probably even if one of them happens to slip up in a horrifying upset in one of its last three games of the regular season -- but there is mere survival for Texas, which can also punch its ticket to Pasadena by taking care of its business against apparent non-threats Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M and Overmatched Big 12 North Champion in the conference title game. For everyone else, it looks like playing out the string for lesser stakes.

That's fine, except that we're hitting mid-November, when the drama, turmoil and debate should be beginning to hit a fever pitch, and already the season feels like a foregone conclusion. There's nothing on the horizon like the familiar imbroglios that have made the rest of the decade so consistently entertaining. In 2003, there was the championship debate over the second half of the season between USC and LSU (which still detest one another for daring to stake a claim to the other's rightful national crown), even before season-long king Oklahoma threw the system into chaos by blowing the Big 12 Championship in spectacular fashion. In 2004, the unbeaten triptych of USC, Oklahoma and Auburn took the drama and unresolved debate straight through November, through championship weekend and even through the bowl games, from which Utah also emerged unbeaten for a little added debate. In both 2006 and 2007, the championship matchup wasn't settled until the final Saturday of the regular season, after jaw-dropping upsets that capped a straight month of contenders falling by the wayside on a weekly basis. Last year, Oklahoma and Texas drove the November with new, delightfully creative intensity as Florida steadily back up the polls and USC and Utah lingered just off the radar, wondering "what about us?"

This year, with no real drama on the horizon another month still, we've been reduced to weekly squabbles over petty officiating scandals, endlessly speculating about the fate of LeGarrette Blount and poring over obscure YouTube clips and message boards for some scraps of evidence of cheap shots, cheap quotes or any other cheap thrills that might fill the dramatic void that is emphatically not unfolding in the results on the field.

A little more than three-quarters of the way through the season, the defining moments of 2009 are probably Blount's right hook at Boise State, the bogus personal foul call against Arkansas' Malcolm Sheppard in Arkansas' loss to Florida, Brandon Spikes' eye gouge of Georgia's Washaun Ealey, and every star player in the state of Oklahoma either going down with a season-ending injury or being declared ineligible for the rest of the year. The most memorable play is either Tim Tebow getting knocked cold at Kentucky or Jahvid Best getting knocked cold against Oregon State. Notre Dame is out of the running for a BCS game but isn't hilariously inept; Ohio State is about the wrap up another Big Ten championship less than a month after losing convincingly to Purdue.

We're not even that happy with the foreordained powerhouses. I'm sure they'll each go down in popular memory as unstoppable monoliths of unimpeachable dominance, but of the "Big Three" swapping positions at the top of the polls for the last month-and-a-half, Alabama and Florida have both struggled to find much consistency or explosiveness on offense, and Texas hasn't beaten anyone in particular, with no one in particular remaining in front of it. With Oklahoma's relative collapse sans Sam Bradford, the Longhorns' best win is over a division rival (Oklahoma State) with no impressive wins of its own; on the same note, the best win for both Florida and Alabama (LSU) hasn't beaten another ranked team, either. The Gators apparently went through some inner turmoil after a close call at Mississippi State, Alabama almost ran out of gas against Tennessee, and Texas at one point trailed well into the third quarter against lowly Colorado. And these are unquestionably the best teams we have.

That can all change, of course. One of the saving graces of the stretch run should be the persistence of upstarts Cincinnati and TCU in the top five (with Boise State right behind), making them potential lightning rods for the annual round of BCS bashing if they're snubbed for a championship shot with unblemished records (which they certainly will be) or intriguing/controversial interlopers in the title game if there's some unthinkable blood-letting among the Big Three. South Carolina, Kansas or Auburn could still throw the best-laid plans for SEC-Texas in Pasadena into a tailspin.

A genuine Cinderella could save this ball yet from just going through the motions to get to Florida-Alabama. But there are no indications at all that anyone in the castle is willing to lower the gate for any approaching party it doesn't immediately recognize.

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30 Comments

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  1. Coach Isiah Thompson
    1. Posted by Coach Isiah Thompson Wed Nov 11, 2009 10:16 pm EST

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    Easy peasy, lemon squeezy up your sleave-y!
  2. Coach Isiah Thompson
    2. Posted by Coach Isiah Thompson Wed Nov 11, 2009 10:17 pm EST

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    sleeve-y
  3. Joe
    3. Posted by Joe Wed Nov 11, 2009 10:46 pm EST

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    The BCS is crap!!! If a team is undefeated they should have the chance to play for the title more so than a one loss Florida, Texas, or Alabama, which Florida or Alabama will lose one. But the fact remains that what the BCS was created for was for one thing, $$$$$!!!! Its not to crown the true NATIONAL CHAMPION but to see who brings the most money to the table, whatever happened to " its all about the athletes"? Gone by the way side!! Its all who you know and who you blow!!! Get the lip gloss out Urban, you may have alot of blowin' to do, better take a napkin!!!
  4. Brandon
    4. Posted by Brandon Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:05 pm EST

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    Joe why do you continue to argue the trivial when it is a bona fide fact that a one loss SEC team is superior to all other teams?
    I thought you would have learned your lesson the last two years in the BCS Champ games. I guess we'll have to prove it again this year..
  5. ess-eee-seee
    5. Posted by ess-eee-seee Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:12 pm EST

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    The NFL playoffs are crap!!! If a team is undefeated and the class of the league, they shouldn't have to play a six loss also ran for the title. But the fact remains that what the playoffs were created for was for one thing, $$$$!!!! It is not to crown the true BEST TEAM but to see (crazy talk about buying titles, implication that coach performs sexual favors on men, blah blah blah).
    Really? TCU/Cinci/Boise State are getting screwed by those undeserving interlopers at Florida?
  6. servo1013
    6. Posted by servo1013 Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:17 pm EST

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    Oddly negative take for you, Doc, especially for a guy who finds pleasure in the minute details. But I was thinking the other day about how to a large extent, this season is starting to regress to the mean. If Oregon loses or is forced to share its Pac-10 stake, Ohio State wins out, and Florida beats Alabama, that will likely bear a repeat of the bowls we saw last year.
    Hold out hope, sir. Between the Aggies, Hawkeyes, Gamecocks, Tide, or (God forbid) Wolverines, there's got to be something to look forward to.
  7. Joe
    7. Posted by Joe Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:20 pm EST

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    Brandon: Let me tell you why, most of the public is tired of seeing the same old same old, Florida, Texas, USC and Ohio State!! Time to change it up!!! Utah last year proved that when they beat the $HIT out of Alabama!!! Lets see an undefeated Cinci or TCU play for the crown, maybe they are better than your SEC cry babies!!! Only one way to find out huh!! So why is it that not a single SEC team plays USC, Texas, Iowa, Wisconsin, Oregon, Boise State, TCU,or Nebraska in the regular season? If they are so damn tough then they should have no problem beating any of those teams!!! I hope Texas whips the $hit out of Florida!!! Tebow is nothing but a poster boy!!
  8. ClintDov
    8. Posted by ClintDov Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:35 pm EST

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    I beg to differ. As a Clemson fan, I'm petrified of playing NC State and Virginia in order to win the ACC Atlantic. Anyone that follows the team know that the Tigers like to win the big one and give away the "gimmees". The division has been paved for several years, only to see a loss to Maryland or BC take us out of the running. Not that Clemson is contending for a national title, but another game against a GT team that we dominated for three quarters would be very exciting. I hope you are wrong, but don't hold your breath on the upsets yet....
  9. Bill K.
    9. Posted by Bill K. Thu Nov 12, 2009 1:17 am EST

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    college football's the only sport that tries to determine the BEST team each year. every other major sport (pro or college) determines the CHAMPION. in 2007, the best team in the NFL? the patriots. no question. that's still the right answer. that's not the point...the point is that the giants beat them in the super bowl. why do people tune in and watch march madness? the cinderellas. the teams that got hot going into the conference tourney and make noise in the big dance. i'm sick of people who don't even watch all the games voting on who they think is the best. it's not about being the best, it's about beating the best. teams like cincy, tcu, and boise, while not considered the best, should have a shot at beating alabama, florida, or texas. any given saturday, any of them could win...and they'd deserve it (even if they'd have lost the next 9 matchups).
    the only way to crown a legitimate national champion is to have a playoff. otherwise, we have a mythical champion. we have a team who some people and some computers decided is the "best." congratulations, [insert SEC or texas], a lot of people decided you were the best.
  10. philipvu94
    10. Posted by philipvu94 Thu Nov 12, 2009 1:59 am EST

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    @ Brandon #4: I thought you would have learned your lesson the last two years in the BCS Champ games. I guess we'll have to prove it again this year..
    Good point! That Florida beatdown of Utah last year will loom large in the annals of non-BCS programs getting their comeuppance.
  11. A!
    11. Posted by A! Thu Nov 12, 2009 3:17 am EST

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    #5.... that is the lames, and perhaps dumbest argument opposing a playoff.
    The reason the NFL takes 6-loss teams (at times even 7 and 8 loss teams) is that their format includes 12 of the 32 teams (that's almost 40% of the teams) in the playoffs.
    In an 8-team college playoff, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team with more than two losses.
    In a 16-team college playoff, you'd be hard pressed to find a team with more than three losses.
    Not convinced? Take a min and look a the brackets in Div I-AA, II or III... they don't have 6 loss teams in the playoffs.
    Since you have trouble with percentages: 8 of 120 is a little less than 7%; 16 of 120 is a little over 13%.
    That's nowhere near 40%
    I'll give you partial credit about the money.... the NFL loves it.
    With the BcS, the networks and the bowl organizers keep most of the money, while most universities are having a hard time funding their programs.
  12. gpearlman53
    12. Posted by gpearlman53 Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:49 am EST

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    SHOULD BE A PLAYOFF SYSTEM IN PLACE i want to know if Cincinati can play with Florida or Boise state can beat Texas or TCU is better than alabama, but we will never get to see that with this BCS crap. Why not top ranked 8 teams in a playoff??
  13. Dan
    13. Posted by Dan Thu Nov 12, 2009 8:02 am EST

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    Normally, the prospect of having two undeafeated teams, ranked numbers 1 and 2, playing on the last weekend of the season would be a great story.
    Unless, that is, you don't like the SEC.
  14. Robert
    14. Posted by Robert Thu Nov 12, 2009 9:46 am EST

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    These snoozy foregone Saturdays are when everything gets blown to hell
  15. Ancient Chinese Secret
    15. Posted by Ancient Chinese Secret Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:02 am EST

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    @Robert: You're absolutely right. If the past few seasons have taught us anything, it's that November is more than happy to do its part in making the BCS asplode.
  16. Norman
    16. Posted by Norman Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:23 am EST

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    Actually Studmuffin, you seem to be a little uneducated in your stats.
    College Football Data Warehouse states: Ohio State's all time record against the SEC is 7-10-2.
    We do not deserve to even play in a BCS bowl this year, but please get your facts straight.
    The college football season is never a let down.
  17. Norman
    17. Posted by Norman Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:30 am EST

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    Actually Studmiffin, you seem to be a uneducated in your stats.
    College Football Data Warehouse states: Ohio State's all time record against the SEC is 7-10-2.
    We don't deserve to even play in a BCS bowl this year, let alone the MNC, but I thought I'd let you know.
  18. Wayne M
    18. Posted by Wayne M Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:31 am EST

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    Texas especially has repeatedly lost games it should have won in November. They are the weak link. They still have to play hated rival Texas A&M and Texas could find itself in the Big XII CG facing off against a Nebraska defense that simply does not give up many points.
    Or a K-State team that beat them with far inferior talent the last two times they have played.
  19. Rob R
    19. Posted by Rob R Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:43 am EST

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    Not sure why everyone is so smitten with Texas and the Big 12.
    Is the Big 12 really that much better than the Big East? The Big 12 has Texas (2) and Ok State (17) where the Big East has Cincy (5), Pitt (8), and USF (23)...and WVU, Rutgers, and UConn aren't half bad.
    And out of conference, Cincy went to Oregon State and won and still has a game coming up against Illinois, where Texas has nothing even remotely impressive out of conference...didn't play any BCS schools.
    It should come as no surprise that Cincy outranks Texas in the computer polls which, if Cincy continues to win (against WVU, Illinois, and Pitt), should continue to be true. If only the human pollsters actually cared about performance instead of reputation.
  20. genius_man16
    20. Posted by genius_man16 Thu Nov 12, 2009 11:53 am EST

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    The SEC is living on reputation this year and it's really a shame. Are Florida and Alabama both good teams? Yeah of course, but are they #1,2 or 3? Not even close. Who have they beaten? A HORRIBLY overrated LSU team that has lost convincingly to both of the teams it played that had a pulse, and who almost lost to Miss. St and Washington. They haven't beaten anyone else. Florida hasn't even played another ranked team. It's sad that deserving teams like TCU, Cinci, and Boise are left out simply because of what has happend in PAST years, which is completely stupid in its own right. The Patriots wont win the Super Bowl this year simply because they have won 3 this decade, so why should Florida get a chance to go for another championship based on what they've done in the past?
  21. ess-eee-seee
    21. Posted by ess-eee-seee Thu Nov 12, 2009 12:09 pm EST

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    #11, It is no more lame than complaining that a team which is demonstrably inferior in the regular season does not get a shot to play for the CFB title.
    Since you seem to appreciate pretentiousness, allow me to be pedantic. I cited the NYG-NE result because it is what is known as an "outlier", or a result that is markedly different in value from the remainder of the sample. I apologize for assuming every reader would recognize it as such.
    If you introduce a playoff to CFB, it is only a matter of time til such an outlier event occurs. Some four or five loss team will pull an upset in a conference title game and ride a combination of luck and hot play to a title. They will be the champion as determined by the playoff structure, no more nor less legitimate than the champions determined by the current structure. I would prefer that the system crown the team which plays best over the full season.
    I believe that is the fairest system, and the playoffs simply introduce a greater element of chance. While some playoff proponents undoubtedly believe it would produce a fairer system, many are relatively unconcerned with such matters and just want One Shining Moment upsets and zaniness. Lots of people like shiny things.
    Playoff proponents are also big fans of "everyone else does it, why should CFB be any different?" While I appreciate the uniqueness in the American system of CFB, it is not unusual for competitions to design a system that rewards the best teams over the course of the season. Until MLB became more concerned with maximizing profits than rewarding excellence, that was the point of a two team post season. Aside from the NFL, most of the largest sports leagues in the world don't even have a 1 vs 2 championship game. They simply give the title to the team that leads the league at the end of the regular season.
    Most of the big school are not losing money. If a playoff is ever implemented, the top 40 or 50 programs will just break away and form their own division. The NCAA can then tout their denuded playoffs pitting Boise State-Navy for the title all they want, but no one outside of those programs will care.
    @17- Ohio State is 3-11-1 versus SEC teams. One of the wins came against someone not named Kentucky or Vanderbilt. Source: http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin/records/confres.pl?start=1920&end=2008&team=Ohio+State&limit=50
  22. Cody
    22. Posted by Cody Thu Nov 12, 2009 12:36 pm EST

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    We should thank the Volunteers for injecting some November interest
  23. woolf
    23. Posted by woolf Thu Nov 12, 2009 12:39 pm EST

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    C'mon, Doc -- you've watched way too much football to believe that no alarms and no surprises are likely down the stretch. I know, it's a hoary cliche to say that "there are no foregone conclusions in this sport, and any team can beat any other team any weekend blah blah hominy blah," but, um, there are no foregone conclusions in this sport, and any team can beat any other team blah blah skeedaddle etc. I've said before and I'll say until it happens: I'm not worried about sorting out a glut of undefeated teams by the end of the season, because I believe in great and mischievous Loki, the hi-larious trickster god of college football.
    (full disclosure, I'm pulling for Alabama/TCU title game, because my heroes are Snake Stabler and Dan Jenkins.)
  24. JEFF P
    24. Posted by JEFF P Thu Nov 12, 2009 1:49 pm EST

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    Just a few things ---
    (1)If Ohio State record is 7-10-2 all time against the SEC, those 7 win and the 2 ties probably came against Vandy and Kentucky. I know they are 0-8 in bowls against the SEC. So, when they play the best the SEC has to offer, they lose. (Aren't they supposed to be the best the Little 11 has to offer? Enough said)
    (2)All the SEC haters love to scream about non conference schedules. Well the CONFERENCE schedule makes up the bulk of the schedule. NO OTHER CONFERENCE PLAY AS TOUGH A CONFERENCE SCHEDULE.
    (And for the record, Georgia has played Boise St a couple of time over the last few years. Guess what? They kicked their a$$es. Plus UGA has played Oklahoma St, Arizona St and plays Georgia Tech every year). So, take your weak ass non conference argument and stuff it.
    (3)Anybody (ess-eee-seee) who thinks that a college football playoff is a bad idea please stop breathing that oxygen that people with brains need to live. I mean, really. If you support this bogus crap none as the BCS, you are saying every other sport played everywhere in the world crowns their champion in the wrong way. You are saying results on the field do not matter. Again, please live the oxygen for those who think.

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