Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

I can never top Peter Bean's Camus-inspired homage to Kirk Bohls' latest column in the Austin American-Statesman, "Coaches showing Texas no love." But I can't resist, either, when someone who shows so much disdain for computer polls and the process so thoroughly fails to connect the dots beyond his next deadline.

Specifically, Bohls can't understand why the Coaches' Poll ranks one-loss Oklahoma ahead of one-loss Texas for the second week in a row, when Texas just beat Oklahoma by 10 points last month, and that the other final polls might actually fall that way, too:

So why exactly are many of the 61 head football coaches who vote in the USA Today top 25 poll showing Texas no love and ranking Oklahoma above it?
[...]
The Sooners are already on the brink of overtaking the Longhorns [in the BCS], and that's dead wrong.

Since when does head-to-head not count? It's like ranking Grenada No. 1 ahead of the United States. Head-to-head results have to be the No. 1 criteria for breaking a deadlock between two teams. All the rest is speculation.

I agree with Bohls and the other AP writers who reversed course and moved UT in front of Oklahoma this week -- check their standing on my own ballot -- and if he had written, "The Sooners have already overtaken the Longhorns in the Coaches' Poll, and that's dead wrong," that would make sense. The coaches are way out of line ranking Oklahoma ahead of Texas right now, because not doing so would be speculation.

Emphasis on right now. Because if voters have no memory, Bohls has no foresight. As it's printed, he seems to be saying OU shouldn't even be on the brink of overtaking Texas after the result in the Cotton Bowl. Presumably, that taboo extends through the rest of the season, even through Oklahoma's potential wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If head-to-head is so sacrosanct, the "No. 1 criteria for breaking a deadlock," I wonder how Bohls would untangle this head-to-head reality if the Sooners beat Tech next week:

Texas > Oklahoma > Texas Tech > Texas

This isn't wild "speculation" -- the Big 12 South situation won't change before Oklahoma and Tech hook up (both teams are off this week), and Oklahoma will probably open a slight favorite as the home team. To my thinking, the above circle of death the most immediately likely scenario, and if it's not -- if the Raiders win in Norman -- the controversy ends with an undefeated Tech moving on to the conference championship and the two-loss Sooners falling by the wayside. Still, Texas is adrift. And should Texas Tech advance and lose to Missouri for its first loss -- or should Oklahoma move on and get hit with its second loss in the Big 12 title game, still leaving UT and Tech with one loss apiece -- by Bohls' reasoning, Texas is still screwed: one-loss Raiders must trump one-loss Longhorns. You know, scoreboard.

Don't worry so much about the specific hypotheticals. The point is, Bohls is raving over a status quo that is guaranteed to change within two weeks, before the subjectivity of voters or computers can lift or snub anyone in any consequential way. And it's pretty much guaranteed to change in a way Texas fans aren't going to like. If Oklahoma wins its last two games over teams currently in everyone's top-15, the Sooners will probably move ahead of Texas thanks to OU's better non-conference wins, and on to the Big 12 Championship. And with another win there, on to the so-called national championship. Either Oklahoma does it, or Texas Tech will.

Either way, it's as fair as the current system can possibly be, if you just look at the entire schedule. Texas played a non-conference slate of Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Arkansas and Rice and lost its right to complain about Texas Tech's equally soft road (should the need arise) by losing to the Raiders. Until there's a new system -- and bring it on, already -- reality is showing Texas no love. The Coaches' poll vote on Nov. 9 is completely meaningless. The actual results down the stretch are going to box the Lonhorns out all on their own.

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  1. apop55
    1. Posted by apop55 Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:57 pm EDT

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    That's not fair. Texas beat OK by 12 on a neutral field. Texas lost by 2 to TTU in Lubbock, while OK gets to play TTU at home. Thus, a one loss Texas *should* be ranked higher than a one loss Oklahoma or a one loss TTU, and it should be Texas Oklahoma TTU, if all teams have one loss.
  2. Ron Santo s Legs
    2. Posted by Ron Santo's Legs Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:16 pm EDT

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    apop, did you read this at all?
  3. Kev Oh
    3. Posted by Kev Oh Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:50 pm EDT

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    apop, the point of the post was that everything will shake out after next week. Sure it seems ridiculous for these past two weeks to have texas ranked below okla... but in the grand scheme of it all, it will not matter after saturday. You will have an A beats B beats C beats A tiebreaker in which Hinton points out exactly WHY texas will be screwed... or Tech will roll into the Game
  4. marcillac
    4. Posted by marcillac Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:06 pm EDT

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    plaoyff advocates please consider: ou beats tech by 3 to 7. most 6 to 8 team formats would exclude 1 or both of texas and tech at the expense and instead give us the rif raff from the acc and big east. larger formats might allow texas at tech but would also include the aforementione rif raff which would lead to useless attrition (its one thing to loose ryan reynold sin the traditional and crucial texas/ou clash and something else entirely to do so in a blowout of pitt or utah).
    thus we can have a narrow playoff which exluded clearly deserving and includes undeserving teams. alternatively we can have a larger playoff which might vitiate the former problem but at the cost of attirition and, in most instances the improtance of the regular season.
  5. Dex
    5. Posted by Dex Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:46 pm EDT

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    Gotta love the BCS (Bullsh** Championship Series).
  6. scottyc5
    6. Posted by scottyc5 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:10 pm EDT

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    People need to remember that Texas played Mizzou and neither OU or Tech did. Considering that, I'm not sure OUs schedule is that much better than Texas'. If OU beats Tech and everyone else holds serve, and OU passes UT in computers after Thanksgiving weekend, so be it. But you can't compare non-conference schedules without also recognizing that neither OU or Tech had to play the best team in the Big XII North who is also a top 15 team.
    (By the way -- sucks to be KU this year getting all three heavyweights from the Big XII South)
  7. johnleroi
    7. Posted by johnleroi Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:39 pm EDT

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    Forget the BCS. Pretend it is only an uber-poll and that the BCS championship game doesn't exist. Should OU beat TTU, there needs to be someway to determine which B12 South team goes to the B12 title game. Just having a title game means that it won't be "fair."
    And an 8-team playoff wouldn't solve anything here. Assuming there is still a ban on more than two teams from the same conference - a very safe assumption - one of the B12 south triumvirate (if not two, should one lose to, say, Missouri, in the B12 title game) would be left out of the playoff, too.
    There is no "fair" solution.
  8. slims
    8. Posted by slims Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:07 pm EDT

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    As a Cal fan, my deepest heartfelt sympathies go out to Texas fans, whose bowl hopes are being dashed by what are clearly systematic manipulations of a flawed system. I mean, it's just unfortunate that, after a hard season of work, the arbitrary opinions of a few easily swayed and potentially ADD-stricken coaches and members of the press could spoil the fruits of your labor. It's too bad that people have chosen to make the college football bowl system this political.
    /what's good for the gander, m'f'ers. See you in the Holiday Bowl.
  9. scottyc5
    9. Posted by scottyc5 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:10 pm EDT

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    Where Cal lost to Tech 4 years back and proved the voters right. . . =)
  10. y_not_garrekk
    10. Posted by y_not_garrekk Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:58 pm EDT

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    OU need TT? Slims, I see UT!
  11. adder30
    11. Posted by adder30 Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:13 pm EDT

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    This logic is so strong it makes my brain hurt.
    I think BlogPoll should take over for the Coaches poll in BCS calculations.
  12. Jared H
    12. Posted by Jared H Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:20 pm EDT

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    So what happens if OU beats Tech in Norman and then loses to OSU in Stillwater? Tech would win the tiebreaker with Texas and go to the Big 12 title game, but Texas would likely have the best BCS ranking.
  13. CuseFanInSoCal
    13. Posted by CuseFanInSoCal Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:48 pm EDT

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    #12/Jared H, Tech would probably have a better BCS ranking after the Big 12 game (presuming they win). Pollsters like conference champions. And since they hate rematches, if there's an epic fail in the SEC (Alabama or Florida loses before the SEC title game, but go one to win the SEC title game anyway), USC will be elevated ahead of the Big 12 teams that don't win the conference, possibly with a few more teams stuck in there (non-BCS undefeated teams, Penn State) to make sure the computers can't mess things up.
    #7/johnleroi, it's very rare that BCS 6 champs + 2 at-large would leave out any deserving teams. It's extremely rare that 11 Conference champs + 5 at-large, even with a 3 schools per conference limit, would leave out any deserving teams. No playoff system is perfect. But most would be better than what we have now (about the only proposal I really don't like is the 'pure plus one' where you play the 'traditional' bowls and then pick the title game participants, because it almost always gives the same thing the BCS did).
  14. El Boricua
    14. Posted by El Boricua Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:29 pm EDT

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    No this is a scam the Big 12 and the voters are running to justify how great the Big12 is!!! Oklahoma has no bussiness in the top 5 since it lost to Texas, and shouldn't be rank back into the top 5 or 10 until it beats a top 10 team.
  15. Kim Garrod
    15. Posted by Kim Garrod Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:51 pm EDT

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    get ride of ou....there done.. tt will be the hell out of their defense..no way can they jump texas until they beat tt...period...im sick of hearing the losers sooner cry..give them thm cotton bowl or go home
  16. jason
    16. Posted by jason Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:28 pm EDT

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    I find it interesting that tx fans think that OU/tx is played in a neutral field; it isn't. The game is played IN tx. The refs will attest to that. 2 phantom roughing the passer calls and a interception in the end zone that was taken away clearly changed the outlook of the game. There were extra texans on the field in Dallas and they wore stripes.
    longhorns just get used to it. OU will beat both tech and OSU and leapfrog over you to play in the championship. longhorns are o v e r r a t e d.
  17. Steve G
    17. Posted by Steve G Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:15 pm EDT

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    Jason, get a grip. Ever been to a UT-OU game? Couldn't have if you made those comments. Yes it is on Texas soil, but I don't know how you'd know it if you happened to get beamed down directly into the stadium. Norman is actually a little closer to Dallas than Austin is. Stadium is half-orange, half-red. Obviously OU doesn't see it as non-neutral, and they haven't played that way, winning four of the last seven. They love coming to Texas for recruiting purposes. If they thought it wasn't fair I promise they would put an end to it.
    I would trash talk you as being an OU fan but you couldn't be one since you are unaware of these facts. But since you are whining about the refs, you sure sound like one.
  18. ARCHIE
    18. Posted by ARCHIE Thu Sep 03, 2009 10:55 pm EDT

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    Tech gets no respect. Underdogs to Texas, Then just a 3 pt. favorite over Ok ST. Texas might have been one of Tech's worse games not to take anything from Texas defense but, if not for a non clip call on a punt return, Tech blows Texas out too. Then they just murder OK ST when everyone was looking for the let down after the big win. Sorry longhorn fans not this time, Tech wrecked the Cowboys. Now, here we go to Noeman and once again after two great runs and a bye week to prepare for the sooners, WE ARE UNDERDOGS AGAIN. NO RESPECT not from no one that is just crazy. I hope tech beat the sooner wagan wheels off. Wreck'em Tech GET YOUR GUNS UP
  19. JosephineTX
    19. Posted by JosephineTX Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:21 pm EDT

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    Jason, as a Dallas native, I can tell you that Dallas is full of OU fans. It's the nearest major city to Norman, so tons of OU grads move there for work after college. At the sports bar near my old apartment, they had four banners up all year round....Texas, OU, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech, to represent the major fan bases in Dallas. The point is, the Cotton Bowl is a neutral field. Enough with the whining already.
  20. Steve G
    20. Posted by Steve G Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:15 pm EDT

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    Archie, Norman is a tough place to play, but this one will be won in the trenches. As long as Tech doesn't turn the ball over, their O-line, composed of space aliens and assorted mutations of humanity, dominates up front and allows them to outscore OU. Even though Bradford is a great QB, he'll have to win the Heisman next year and I just don't see their offense keeping up. OU won't have Reynolds, and both DE's are hurting and may not play at all. Harrell should have time to phone his girlfriend from the pocket before throwing.
  21. The Stos
    21. Posted by The Stos Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:45 pm EDT

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    Whoa Whoa Whoa...why all the glum outlooks my friend. UT fans (myself included),...Wake Up! Let's root for tech to win out, FSU to beat Florida, and Florida to beat Bama...at that point we should get Tech in a Nat'l Championship rematch. There's no need to think Texas is "boxed in."
    I know that was a lot of what ifs, but this article is almost as ridiculous as Bohls'. If he isn't looking to the future, neither is the Doc. There are so many possibilities yet to unfold, it would be wrong to assume the horns are done.
    (Root for Jevan Sneed over Bama, and Bama over Florida...probably more realistic than my other scenario, then just pull for Tech all the way again.)
  22. A Yahoo! User
    22. Posted by A Yahoo! User Thu Nov 13, 2008 1:30 pm EST

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    Kim Garrod
    please finish elementary school before posting please
  23. jason
    23. Posted by jason Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:28 pm EDT

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    I used to live in Dallas, my parents still live in Grand Prairie shorthorns. I know a little something about the place.
    Who cares if Dallas is a litter closer to Norman that Austin. That has nothing to do with anything. The atmosphere in Dallas is PRO longhorn all the way. It's a fallacy that the game is in neutral territory. Its IN DALLAS Einstein.
    Plus I WAS in Dallas during the game. I picked up my sister from the game.
    I digress though, OU will beat the vastly superior over texass, Texas tech team and get into the championship. There's a reason the coaches poll picks us over texass. shorthorns are overrated.
  24. Michael
    24. Posted by Michael Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:17 pm EDT

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    apop55, Texas won by 10, not 12. As far as the OU-TT game goes, TT is a great team. So is OU. Just because OU has home-field advantage doen't mean an automatic "W". The Sooners need to play as if their lives depend on it...which they kind of do (in the BCS anyway). It will be a great game. Can't wait! GO SOONERS!!!!!!
  25. Rocky
    25. Posted by Rocky Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:27 pm EDT

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    Haha... gotta ask: why Grenada Matt? That was a left-field reference! The only possibility for it I can think of is the relatively controversial and pointless '83 invasion that lasted a few hours (?) Either way, Boomer Sooner!

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