Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Let the heavy breathing begin. Bryce Brown's much-anticipated announcement is only days away, but the top player in the Class of 2009 is already yesterday's news: Rivals released its initial top 100 for 2010 Wednesday, with another Midwestern No. 1 at the top. Meet Seantrel Henderson, a 6'8", 300-pound behemoth from Minnesota who could obviously crush you underfoot and who's already been offered by most of the country as an offensive tackle. Among the dozen five-star prospects on the list, only two have already committed: "athlete" Matt Elam (Florida) and linebacker Chris Martin (Notre Dame). Prospects 101-250 will be released today.

Of course, you can let the skepticism begin as well; from a reader:

If you look at newly released Rivals 100, something seems too good to be true: Of the 100 top recruits, they list 19 from Florida (almost one in five!), 13 from California, and 13 from Texas. That's 45 percent of the top 100 from three states. Is that possible, or is Rivals going a little overboard? Also, between NY and Illinois, the third and fifth-most populous states, there is one recruit.

California, Florida and Texas only accounted for 26 percent of the U.S. population in 2007, according to Census estimates, so 45 percent is obviously disproportionate; the same reader points to last year's top 100, which was similarly Sun Belt heavy and featured zero prospects from New York. (Doug Marrone also thinks this is bull.)

Obviously, even though I have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with forming the rankings, I'm in no position to take them to task or give away much of the process, given the banner at the top of the blog. But off the record, I can say this: The widespread opinion in recruiting circles (all recruiting circles. not just Rivals) is that high school ball in those three states is far, far more competitive than the rest of the country, especially compared to the Northeast. Put it this way: Outside of the rare Seantrel Henderson, SEC schools aren't scouring Big Ten country for talent, you know?

The projections never end. How much ground did Andre Smith make up in rehabbing his sinking draft stock at Alabama's pro day workouts? Depends on who you ask. Andre thinks he did awesome:

Andre Smith

Actual NFL scouts? Well, not so much:

Well, his workout times were unspectacular. ... To put Smith’s workout drills in perspective, he did not post a single number that would have placed him in the top performers at his position at the combine and many of his numbers were not even close to the top 10 at his position at the combine.

Other scouts were more blunt: See such sentiment as "He bombed" and "the worst workout [I] ever saw."

Going into the day, Smith was still considered a top-15 guy next month. But not only does it seem he failed to earn back any of what he lost a couple weeks ago in Indianapolis -- he may have lost millions more.

See? Everything is fine. It's a formality, but the BCS officially extended its agreements with the Rose, Sugar, Orange and Fiesta bowls through the 2013 season, concurrent with the Series' deal with ESPN. There are no cracks in the facade, people. We don't know what you're talking about.

Quickly ... Kellon Wilson, older brother of USF starting linebacker Kion Wilson, was shot and killed Saturday during an argument in Miami. ... Ex-TCU running back Lonta Hobbs, a star for the Frogs earlier this decade, is heading to prison on a 10-year sentence for selling cocaine near his old high school stadium. ... Michigan State kick returner Glenn Winston was suspended indefinitely after pleading guilty to two misdemeanor charges in the fight that injured a Spartan hockey player last October. ... Former North Carolina starting quarterback Cam Sexton is transferring to Division II Catawba for his final season. ... Miami-area running back prospect Corvin Lamb is leaning towards Florida, just five years after doctors said he's never play football again. ... Tennessee is in need of a few good tackles. (Aren't we all?) ... Criminal charges were dropped, but Florida's Carl Johnson could still face civil charges and possibly even testify to the incidents that led to his arrest for violating a sexual violence restraining order last month. He remains suspended from spring practice, per the university, but might not be healthy enough (knee) to go even if cleared. ... Center Juan Garcia, for all he's been through in Seattle, still has some draft hopes after Washington's pro day. Among Huskies, anyway, he's the only one. ... Miami knows its starting quarterback, but the backup race is interesting, right? Kinda? ... A sports-related Hall of Fame that's actually inducting Craig Krenzel? ... And Texas holds its annual Bring Your Professor to Practice Day, just in time to see Colt McCoy -- gasp! -- intercepted.

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11 Comments

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  1. James P
    1. Posted by James P Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:28 pm EDT

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    I keep telling you, Andre Smith is a genius. Let your draft stock fall, but not too much. Avoid going #1. Avoid the Lions!
  2. PurdueMatt
    2. Posted by PurdueMatt Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:11 pm EDT

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    High School football in New York or Indiana isn't in the same stratosphere as Florida or Texas.
  3. Amos
    3. Posted by Amos Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:46 pm EDT

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    So what if New York and Illinois are the two of the most popular states? Most of New York's population resides in NYC, ever been there? How much room do you think there is to play football? And for how many months out of the year do you think its even possible to play football?
    In Florida, Texas and California, there's plenty of room for everybody to play football, pretty much year-round, and all the people who live there care a whole lot about football and how good you might be at it.
  4. i g
    4. Posted by i g Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:14 pm EDT

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    NY and IL football may not be as competitive, but colleges are recruiting athletes, not teams. The athletes can be trained in college -- few freshmen from anywhere are ready to play anyway. In states as large as NY and IL, there must be some great athletes that are being overlooked. In the last three years, Rivals top 100 included ~50 player from FL and 1 from NY. It doesn't seem possible.
  5. PurdueMatt
    5. Posted by PurdueMatt Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:11 pm EDT

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    ig,
    There are exceptions. For example Kyle Prater, WR from Illinois, in the top 20. However, the overall average talent level is much higher in football states like Florida or Texas.
  6. jsaltillo
    6. Posted by jsaltillo Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:42 pm EDT

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    "Planes don't fly North"
  7. kass0809@...
    7. Posted by kass0809@... Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:47 pm EDT

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    Lets be honest. Family in NJ, NY and Chicago aren't exactly pushing their kids to be great athletes like they are in the south, California (minus SF area), and other areas. Also, families in the South have much more kids. I would even say that a place like NYC probably has as many high school kids as Dallas/Fort Worth, even though the population overall is 20 million to 6.5 million.
  8. Kevin
    8. Posted by Kevin Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:52 pm EDT

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    California is actually pretty accurately represented. 33 mil in CA, 300 mil in the United States = 11%
    I also don't really under the "California (minus SF area)" comment above. The Bay Area produces a more than respectable number of top players - only one one on that list, but lots of pretty players that were probably right at the top of the list in recent years - Maurice Jones Drew, Roy Williams, DJ Williams, Ken Dorsey, Kyle Wright. But certainly it is an area that may be under-represented - see Jahvid Best barely cracking the list at No. 94.
  9. Kevin
    9. Posted by Kevin Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:52 pm EDT

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    Hmm...awful typo in my comment with the "lots of pretty players" oops
  10. Double B
    10. Posted by Double B Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:03 pm EDT

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    Regarding New York, trust me . . it's possible. I've recruited there and it generally blows. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and state that Connecticut with about 1/5 of the population has somewhat equivalent numbers of top prospects and New Jersey is light years better.
    The question is why? Obviously NYC adds population without adding much in the way of football talent or schools. Upstate New York is more like New England (Vermont, Maine, NH). Smaller schools spread out talent and hockey is truly king. That leaves you the northern suburbs of NYC and Long Island. That's where the money is and ultimately the talent, but a lot of it is wealthy and athletics isn't a focus OR ends up playing lacrosse. Take a look at D-I lacrosse rosters--they are teeming with New York and New England kids.
    Why can't Florida and Texas produce D-I lacrosse players in proportion to their population? Because the lacrosse talent plays football.
  11. Captain D
    11. Posted by Captain D Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:45 pm EDT

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    Alot of people are saying this years crop of Florida talent is as good as any class in decades. Im not surprised that we are a little more highly represented on the 100 than usual, and to be honest I have a feeling that when this list is updated in the fall alot of the Florida guys in the lower end of the 100 will jump considerably.

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