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Thu Nov 19, 2009 2:30 pm EST

Hard-luck Huskies can finally put the Weis era out of its misery

By Matt Hinton

Upset Bait: The Doc Saturday crew peruses the weekly lines in search of a few shockers. For entertainment only, kids.

Matt Hinton: Connecticut (+6) over Notre Dame.
Why the heck not? This is the exact spot in which Syracuse stunned the Irish in South Bend last year, the shot that officially opened the Great Hunt for coach Charlie Weis' head, which the Huskies can finally end Saturday. Aside from the obvious talent gap, these teams aren't that far apart on the field: UConn's five losses have come by a combined 15 points, none of them decided before the final two minutes, including full-throated upset bids at Big East heavies Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Cincinnati and three quarters of defensive domination in a strange loss to North Carolina. This team has been full of fight despite losing three straight since Jasper Howard's murder, and frankly deserves a big win.

Meanwhile, the Irish have frequently fallen on the other side of their toss-ups: With the exception of hopelessly overmatched Nevada and Washington State, every game ND has played has come down to the final seconds, including skin-of-the-teeth wins over Michigan State, Purdue, Washington and Boston College, all of them in UConn's general weight class. Notre Dame has fallen behind quickly the last two weeks and failed to finish late comeback bids against Navy and Pitt; maybe the Irish's luck (and motivation) has run out, and UConn can get a bounce or two for a change at the expense of whatever flimsy shreds of hope remain for Weis' return in 2010.

Doug Gillett: LSU (+4) over Ole Miss and North Carolina (+3.5) over Boston College.
Two matchups that don't have huge lines, but I don't understand either of the favorites. In the first case, is there really any debate at this point over whether Houston Nutt or Les Miles is the better big-game coach? Vegas must have missed the fact that the Rebels have been utterly incapable of putting together back-to-back big games against quality opponents, or else the oddsmakers got spooked by LSU's listless performance against Louisiana Tech with "Pick Six" master Jarrett Lee taking center stage again for one night only. The Tigers are almost certain to be better with regular starter Jordan Jefferson back under center, and I have a hunch SEC interception "leader" Jevan Snead is due for another hiccup against the LSU secondary.

As for UNC-BC, the fact that the Eagles' 95th-ranked offense is going up against Carolina's' top-10 defense seems to have whizzed right by some people. Boston College does play a heck of a lot better at home than on the road, but with the Atlantic Division title officially out of reach, they're ripe for a pounding from the Tar Heels, hot again with back-to-back-to-back wins over division rivals Virginia Tech, Duke and Miami after a midseason slump.

Holly Anderson: Air Force (+10) over BYU.
Quick, can anyone think of anything impressive from BYU since its name-brand upset over ailing Oklahoma in the opener? Yeah, me neither. The Cougars were blown out by the only other winning team on the schedule, TCU, and waxed by the only other high-profile foe, Florida State, both at home.

They do boast a top-20 run defense, but the Cougars haven't faced anything like AFA's option attack yet, which has only fallen in overtime at Utah and Navy and by a combined 10 points against TCU and Minnesota. The Falcons also boast the best defense BYU Max Hall has seen outside of Oklahoma and TCU: Air Force is in the top 10 nationally in total and scoring D and leads the nation against the pass.

Speaking of bowl motivation, UAB is sitting at an improbable 5-5 with two games left to go, so ... why not UAB (+12.5) over East Carolina? It's not like anyone in Conference USA has been invincible this season, and the Blazers can thrust themselves into the C-USA East title race while ensuring a friendly crowd right back in Birmingham at the historic Papajohns.com Bowl, at minimum. Who could need more motivation than that?

- - -
Kudos to Holly for nailing Stanford over USC last week. As for the rest of us: Our time will come.

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8 Comments

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  1. Ruffa
    1. Posted by Ruffa Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:02 pm EST

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    Essays belong to a literary species whose extreme variability can be studied most effectively within a three-poled frame of reference. There is the pole of the personal and the autobiographical; there is the pole of the objective, the factual, the concrete-particular; and there is the pole of the abstract-universal. Most essayists are at home and at their best in the neighborhood of only one of the essay's three poles, or at the most only in the neighborhood of two of them. There are the predominantly personal essayists, who write fragments of reflective autobiography and who look at the world through the keyhole of anecdote and description. There are the predominantly objective essayists who do not speak directly of themselves, but turn their attention outward to some literary or scientific or political theme. … And how splendid, how truly oracular are the utterances of the great generalizers! … The most richly satisfying essays are those which make the best not of one, not of two, but of all the three worlds in which it is possible for the essay to exist. custom papers Like the novel, the essay is a literary device for saying almost everything about almost anything, usually on a certain topic. By tradition, almost by definition, the essay is a short piece, and it is therefore impossible to give all things full play within the limits of a single essay. But a collection of essays can cover almost as much ground, and cover it almost as thoroughly, as can a long novel. Montaigne's Third Book is the equivalent, very nearly, of a good slice of the Comédie Humaine.
  2. Amanda
    2. Posted by Amanda Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:02 pm EST

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    I hope you're right, Holly, but you have to remember that BYU historically has had very little trouble with Air Force. BYUs strength has always been its lines and linebackers. It's like they are custom built to match up well against a team like Air Force that doesn't throw.
    Two things have become almost gospel in the MWC in the past 10 years: Utah will struggle with AFA, and BYU won't. It's strange but generally true. But this AFA defense is better than usual. Maybe there's a chance.
  3. Ancient Chinese Secret
    3. Posted by Ancient Chinese Secret Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:39 pm EST

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    The '08 Syracuse game was my last as a student at ND, and what a Senior Day it was (thanks for the memories, Charlie!). At that point my class was the only one to have been through the entire Charlie Weis Experience, and although the season was already heading downhill, the general mood was, "F it, let's try to make it fun." By the third quarter the attitude of the student section was as poinsonous as I've ever seen it, and that's saying something.
    Current ND Seniors: I hope it goes better for you than it did for me, but I suggest you stock up on brown party liquors as a precaution.
  4. RT73
    4. Posted by RT73 Thu Nov 19, 2009 3:40 pm EST

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    Doug, you are overlooking the fact that Ole Miss finally has an identity on offense. LSU will have to use more guys near the line of scrimmage to shut down McCluster, making life easier on a stabilizing Jevan Snead. Most importantly for Ole Miss the offensive line has improved as the year has gone on. Finally, this is the same story as last year. Ole Miss playing well, LSU plays poorly against an over matched opponent (last year Troy), except this year Ole Miss doesn't have to travel to Baton Rouge. Oh, and regardless of who is the better big game coach, what is Miles' head to head record with the Coach Giggity again? I would've bitten my tongue on this one.
  5. gtne91
    5. Posted by gtne91 Thu Nov 19, 2009 4:15 pm EST

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    Doug,
    BC can still win the Atlantic title. They have to win out and Clemson lose to UVA.
  6. Jacob
    6. Posted by Jacob Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:47 pm EST

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    I foresee a ND win over UConn, followed by tons of excitement on the ND sideline, like after their "signature" win over Hawaii. Jubilation, a Gatorage bath for Weis, players emphasizing what a great coach Weis is... I mean, this IS UConn, after all, and a win is a win!
  7. PurdueMatt
    7. Posted by PurdueMatt Fri Nov 20, 2009 8:02 am EST

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    Quick, can anyone think of anything impressive from BYU since its name-brand upset over ailing Oklahoma in the opener?
    52-0 win over bowl bound Wyoming?
  8. Steve
    8. Posted by Steve Fri Nov 20, 2009 8:45 am EST

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    So you gloss right over the fact that Air Force has LOST FOUR TIMES and focus entirely on BYU's TWO losses (bad though they were). Other than moral victories, what can you point to with the Falcons that is impressive? You completely omit the fact that Air Force struggled to a 10-0 win over Wyoming at home while BYU annihlated Wyoming on the road 52-0. Air Force's only two road wins came against hapless UNM and CSU. Air Force has reeled off three straight wins against those powerhouses CSU, Army and UNLV, I guess that's what impressed you? BYU thumped both CSU and UNLV by more impressive margins and there's no reason to think they wouldn't do the same to Army. BYU has historically handled the Falcon's rushing attack quite well, with teams less impressive than this year's version. The game's in Provo and BYU will not drop three at home this year. BYU comfortably wins this one. (Seems like a bit of bias has colored your prediction on this one.)

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