Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Game of the Century of the Week.

In two weeks, the script USC seemed to writing through the first six weeks of the season has flipped completely: The typically impenetrable defense, which back in September kept the middling offense alive at Ohio State and bottled up Cal for just three points in Berkeley, has been gashed in back-to-back weeks, first for 367 yards and 27 points at Notre Dame, then again last week for 482 yards and 36 points in a home win over Oregon State. Statistically speaking, it was SC's worst defensive game since yielding to Vince Young in the '06 Rose Bowl, and Beaver quarterback Sean Canfied is no Hesiman contender.

But then there's the offense particularly freshman quarterback Matt Barkley, who's quickly progressed from being bailed out by the defense to wielding the bucket himself as the point totals mount. Barkley ripped the Irish for 380 yards and three touchdowns, and currently tops the Pac-10 charts in both passing yards per game and pass efficiency for the season; his 9.6 yards per attempt puts him among the national leaders and establishes him as one of the most dangerous downfield slingers anywhere, if not the most consistent -- an attribute that was clearly missing when Barkley sat out the only loss, at Washington.

In other words, there is no set formula for USC to win. In the Trojans' big games this season, they've already won with the defense looking very much like last year's star-studded pack of killers at Ohio State and Cal; with Barkley's arm carrying the day in a shootout in South Bend; and with the running game taking its turn with 227 yards and three touchdowns (and zero lost fumbles, crucially) in last week's up-and-down affair against Oregon State. There's a hint of inconsistency there -- the win over Cal is probably the only "complete" game the Trojans have played in all phases -- but there's also a hint of the versatility and balance that comes with such overwhelming talent at every position.

Oregon has been about as consistent since the start of conference play, including a huge passing day by Jeremiah Masoli in the blowout win over Cal. But his big day in Berkeley notwithstanding, the Ducks are far more limited Saturday in that it's very hard to see them putting game on Masoli -- a thoroughly middle-of-the-pack passer by every measure, and probably a little below average in his ability to challenge USC deep -- unless things have already gone terribly wrong in the vaunted read option game that's clearly Oregon's bread and butter. Last year in the L.A. Coliseum, the Ducks were down 34-10 a few minutes into the third quarter, and Masoli was a sitting duck (no pun intended) for SC pass rushers, who finished with five sacks, a forced fumble and an interception in an eventual 44-10 rout -- Oregon's worst game of the season in terms of scoring, rushing yards, total yards and yards per play.

That was the worst-case scenario for the Ducks in pretty much every way, and a good example of why, even with lingering questions about a freshman quarterback and brand new questions about the revamped defense, it's still a better bet to stick with the Trojans: When it all comes together for USC, the game's not going to be close (just as it wasn't last year), but SC doesn't have to play perfectly across the board to win, as long as it's not turning the ball over; Oregon, on the other hand, must hew much more closely to a specific script that gives it a chance to keep running on offense, and execute that plan almost perfectly. I'll always prefer to err on the side of margin of error.

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5 Comments

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  1. Jimmy S
    1. Posted by Jimmy S Sat Oct 31, 2009 12:02 am EDT

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    Usc!!! should be ranked number 2222222222!!!!!!!!!!
  2. Robert C
    2. Posted by Robert C Sat Oct 31, 2009 12:38 am EDT

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    Why the hell should USC be ranked number 2? They are always ranked to high. Right now, I think they are right where they should be.
    I hope the Green OU can come thru in this one and stop the possibility of USC in the Championship game.
  3. Justin Case
    3. Posted by Justin Case Sat Oct 31, 2009 1:54 am EDT

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    U. of Oregon's dreams will be shattered when the Beavers go to Eugene and give them the final loss that keeps them out of the Rose Bowl.
    Please go easy on the hype, Duck fans. You have a destiny with disappointment.
  4. Ruben
    4. Posted by Ruben Sat Oct 31, 2009 2:56 am EDT

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    really the beavs? c'mon. come with a better response. beaves 6 UofO 42
  5. frankcastleusmc
    5. Posted by frankcastleusmc Sun Nov 01, 2009 12:57 am EDT

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    47-20 Ducks.

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