Dr. Saturday - NCAAF

Texas at Oklahoma State.
Latest word this afternoon suggests the Cowboys could get starting running back Kendall Hunter back from a five-game absence, possibly helping to mitigate the now-permanent absence of Dez Bryant on the offense. But the real question for Oklahoma State has been its ability to finally finish against Texas if things go well. Because even an overwhelmingly one-sided series in UT's favor, getting things to go well hasn't been the Cowboys' problem, at least initially: Since 2004, OSU has built 35-7, 28-9 and 35-14 leads on the 'Horns, only to blown them all in spectacular defensive collapses. Last year, they put up 400-plus yards in Austin and had a chance to win on the final play of a 28-24 loss, by far UT's smallest margin of victory of the regular season. The Cowboys have been able to keep up, and in some cases even set the pace. But if there's any chance at all of this team fulfilling its promise as the best in school history, it has to sustain that pace for four quarters Saturday.

And frankly, I don't see how that's going to happen without Bryant. I like everything else about the Cowboy offense, especially the offensive line, which with monster left tackle Russell Okung is tied for the national lead in sacks allowed. With Bryant drawing attention, I think OSU could make a lot of headway on Texas' brutal run defense, with or without Hunter. But the Cowboys don't have another reliable deep threat of Bryant's caliber (I'm not sure one exists in college football this year outside of A.J. Green in Georgia) who can consistently draw the Longhorns away from the line of scrimmage, where they lead the nation against the run after holding Texas Tech to –6 net yards on the ground and Oklahoma to –16.

OSU should be considerably better than that, eventually, but not good enough to keep pace with the offense that went on four long touchdown drives in five first half possessions last week at Missouri. If the Cowboys fall behind by two scores in the second half, defensive ends Sergio Kindle and Sam Acho are going to make things distinctly unpleasant for Zac Robinson in the pocket, whether he identifies a new favorite receiver or not.

West Virginia at South Florida.
Nowhere does West Virginia's revamped offense make more sense than against South Florida, which had by far the most success of any other Big East team against the Rich Rodriguez/Pat White 'Neers, with back-to-back upsets in 2006-07 and a strong defensive effort in a 13-7 loss last year in White's final game in Morgantown. With the vaunted spread 'n shred long gone for the more pass-happy stylings of offensive coordinator Jeff Mullen and more pocket-friendly quarterback Jarrett Brown, the issue for West Virginia is less whether USF has its number than whether it can not commit multiple turnovers for a change -- WVU has given it away a staggering 19 times in the last six games.

When they hold on to it, though, the Mountaineers still bring the Big East's best rushing offense against a defense that's been gutted every which way against competent attacks from Cincinnati and Pittsburgh the last two weeks. Seeing also that the Bulls began shuffling quarterbacks against the Panthers, still have no reliable running back to take pressure off the young QBs and seem uncertain this week whether they want to change the personnel on defense or not, I'm not taking homefield advantage too far here.

Kansas State at Oklahoma.
Kansas State should have some confidence here, based on a) A two-game conference winning streak, the Wildcats' first since late 2006, that has them sitting all by themselves at the top of the Big 12 North; and b) Last year's game against in OU in Manhattan, one of the wildest of the season, in which KSU rallied from a 28-7 deficit to tie the game at 28 in the second quarter and finished with 550 total yards against the Sooner defense.

The reality: The Wildcats lost that game, big, because they had no prayer of stopping OU, and were torched several times over for 66 points against the only elite offense they've faced so far this year, at Texas Tech. Oklahoma may not qualify for "elite" anymore without Sam Bradford, but the Sooner D is vastly improved, and if the Red Raiders could light up the K-State secondary with a first-time starter, the four-touchdown spread might be rather conservative for Landry Jones, who if nothing can pick apart an overmatched defense.

Duke at Virginia.
The battle to join Georgia Tech at the top of the ACC Coastal. Blue Devil quarterback Thaddeus Lewis is leading the ACC's top-ranked passing attack off three straight 350-yard games through the air, but -- Wait, OK, catch your breath ... head between your knees ...

Ready? Good? Alright: Duke is improbably explosive on offense all of a sudden, a nice advantage to have against the league's least explosive offense -- the Cavs are dead last in the ACC in total yards, and except for a baffling, 536-yard outburst against Indiana two weeks ago haven't had another good game on offense yet. But UVA does perfectly counter Duke's top-10 passing attack on defense: The Cavaliers lead the ACC and rank in the top 10 themselves against the pass in terms of both yards and efficiency. And if the offense can go off on Indiana, surely it can do enough to get by against Duke.

Kansas at Texas Tech.
Both of these teams were taken out back and beaten in fairly shocking fashion to knock them from the polls last week, but the situation seems more dire in the Jayhawks' case because, unlike Texas Tech's, their fall hasn't been quite as jarring: Even before the stunning loss at Colorado two weeks ago and the regressive offensive effort in last week's pounding at the hands of Oklahoma, KU had to rally from way behind to beat Iowa State and fend off a strong upset bid by Southern Miss, both in Lawrence. The Jayhawks have also given up at least 28 points in four straight games and are traditionally a sketchy road team under Mark Mangino, all of which adds up to a classic barrage from the Red Raiders in Lubbock.

Central Michigan at Boston College.
The Chippewas are a tough team to gauge: They have one solid upset, at Michigan State, but didn't do much in a 19-6 loss at Arizona in the opener, and have been plowing mostly unchallenged through the underbelly of the MAC for the last month. Dan LeFevour is unquestionably the biggest star on the field. But B.C. has found some stability on offense in quarterback David Shinskie and running back Montel Harris the last two weeks, and if the Eagles are good enough to survive the underbelly of the Atlantic Division (Wake Forest, Florida State, N.C. State) in Chestnut Hill, they can deal with the best the MAC has to offer.

Miami at Wake Forest.
The ACC continues to operate under the dadaist "Chaos is King," and Wake Forest is one of those strange teams that performs vastly better at home (4-1; outgaining opponents by 50 yards per game) than on the road (0-3; outgained by 50 yards per game). But if Jacory Harris and Co. can't muster enough offense to outscore a team that has a single touchdown the last two weeks and most recently lost to a service academy that didn't attempt a pass, the already wavering hype is officially rescinded. Wake is a bad team, Jacory: Your public demands blood.

California at Arizona State.
The Bears' recent history on the road makes them a sketchy pick any time they're away from Berkeley, but Cal had no problem torching UCLA in the Rose Bowl two weeks ago and seems to be over the two-week offensive swoon against Oregon and USC that effectively detonated its season. Arizona State should keep it competitive, but the Devils have to ask: Who on ASU can begin to compete as playmakers with Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen out of the backfield? The Bears have sprung their running backs for 300-plus total yards between them two weeks in a row; Arizona State will be slightly grateful if its entire team gains 300 yards.

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8 Comments

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  1. M B
    1. Posted by M B Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:43 pm EDT

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    You printed the Texas Tech score twice and no score for the BC game.
  2. Crane Poole and Schmidt
    2. Posted by Crane Poole and Schmidt Fri Oct 30, 2009 7:39 pm EDT

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    C'mon, you freakin' Okies, let's win just one for the Zipper.
  3. Nathan
    3. Posted by Nathan Sat Oct 31, 2009 12:43 am EDT

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    "But the Cowboys don't have another reliable deep threat of Bryant's caliber (I'm not sure one exists in college football this year outside of A.J. Green in Georgia)"
    Take off the SEC Blinders, guys. I know you're a So Miss guy, Matt, but living in SEC country blinds you just like Holly and Doug.
    AJ Green: 41 catches, 682 yards, 16.6 avg, 65 yd long, 6 TDs, #20 in receiving yards.
    Golden Tate: 52 catches, 847 yards, 16.3, avg, 77 yard long, 8 TD's, #3 in receiving yards. I only use him as an example because I'm a Domer, but there's plenty of receivers out there with comparable stats to Green. He doesn't even win his own state:
    Demaryius Thomas, Ga Tech: 30 catches, 747 yards, 24.9 avg, 74 yard long, 4 TD's.
    Sort by average yards per catch, which tells you more about deep threat ability than total yards, and AJ Green ranks 47th.
    I'm not saying AJ Green isn't a great receiver, but to say there isn't another good deep threat outside of Dez Bryant is just lazy. ND has two when they get Michael Floyd back that I'd put against any WRs in the country, and I'm sure fans of other teams could chime in with their own arguments.
  4. jason
    4. Posted by jason Sat Oct 31, 2009 4:30 am EDT

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    Matt's actually a texASS guy, deep in their pockets and pocketbooks. he pretty much talks condescending smack about OU every chance he gets. he's a hack writer and pretty biased.
  5. Justin D
    5. Posted by Justin D Sat Oct 31, 2009 1:16 pm EDT

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    Texas has realized the avenue to the NC is to play a pathetic OOC schedule and beat OU in the Red River because there is no one else in the Big 12 with a pulse. Every year teams like Texas Tech or Ok St come in, do decent in a bad conference then lose every bowl or remotely tough team they play out of the Southwest.
    Quite sad actually how bad the state of CFB is now. Sure fans who pay out the nose for season tickets...you dont NEED to see quality teams do you? No, you will pay no matter what DIV 2 team Texas plays this week.
  6. steven j
    6. Posted by steven j Sat Oct 31, 2009 2:44 pm EDT

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    JUSTIN D, you can say the same thing with the SEC, every year the SEC has six ranked teams, three in the top ten, and at the end of the year only two are ranked. you can say whatever however about whatever school you wish in the big 6 conferences and when it comes down to it the powerhouses are not playing each other.
    if they tossed all the weakling conferences out of the bowl division, didn't let the bowl schools play small schools, shifted the bigger schools in the weakling conferences into the big six (boise, byu, utah, and houston), and made notre dame join a conference there would be a better system. if there were a tourney with this system it would be fair for everyone, you take the top two from each conference and have four atlarge births for those that were not in the top two of their conference to make for a 16 team tourney.that would work especially well cause if you had the scenario like what happened in the big 12 last season they would all be in without the debate.
  7. bluesbrotherusc
    7. Posted by bluesbrotherusc Sat Oct 31, 2009 10:34 pm EDT

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    Let me start.
    For the two-dozenth time tonight, I heard Stevie (Spurrier) call his team stupid at the halftime interview.
    Yes Steve is a good coach. But time to learn, Stevie, the team is only and no better than a reflection of the coach. No better. No worse, Buck stops there.
    So no one can argue that Steve is a genius of college coaches, but like all savants they often have their "idiot" side. Maybe STeve's was coming to this school and thinking he could walk on water and pull the USC boat to a title on his sheer genius.
    Instead he got "stupid"
    Big mirror, Stevie boy.
    Time to go Steve. No love lost. Go find a team that can make you look smarter, cause it will be a looong look. Even Duke couldn't pull you out again.
    Gamecocks have outgrown you.
  8. lundy54
    8. Posted by lundy54 Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:54 am EST

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    I'm still not sure of tx run offense against ALabama defense,note I say alabama jim h

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